Assessing the Impact of Non-Tariff Measures on Imports · Sources: UNCTAD, 2013 (Classification),...
19
Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies www.wiiw.ac.at Julia Grübler (with Mahdi Ghodsi and Robert Stehrer) Banque de France and European Central Bank Workshop: Task Force on Global Trade 20 June 2016 This paper was produced as part of the PRONTO (Productivity, Non-Tariff Measures and Openness) project funded by the European Commission under the 7 th Framework Programme. Assessing the Impact of Non-Tariff Measures on Imports
Transcript of Assessing the Impact of Non-Tariff Measures on Imports · Sources: UNCTAD, 2013 (Classification),...
Wiener Institut für
Internationale
Wirtschaftsvergleiche
The Vienna Institute for
International Economic
Studies
www.wiiw.ac.at
Julia Grübler (with Mahdi Ghodsi and Robert Stehrer)
Banque de France and European Central Bank Workshop:
Task Force on Global Trade
20 June 2016
This paper was produced as part of the PRONTO (Productivity, Non-Tariff Measures and Openness) project funded by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme.
Assessing the Impact
of Non-Tariff Measures on Imports
2
1. Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs)
♦ Types
♦ Structure (over time)
2. Ad Valorem Equivalents (AVEs) of NTMs
♦ Concept
♦ Methodology
♦ Results
Outline
By Country
♦ Region
♦ Income
By Product
♦ Sector
♦ HS
♦ BEC
3
Number of PTAs over time
The Political Economy of NTMs
Depth of PTAs over time Trends in Tariffs and NTMs
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
United States
Simple avg. over all countries
Germany
NTM notifications
Note: PTA refers to Preferential Trade Agreements. Applied tariff rate, weighted mean, all products (%)
Sources: WTO I-TIP (NTM data), World Bank (WITS tariff data), wiiw calculations. Dür et al, 2014 (Number and Depth of PTAs).
1. NTMs 2. AVEs
Political Economy
NTM Types
Structure Concept Method Results
4
15 out of 16 classifications concern imports
thereof 3 are technical in nature:
- TBT… technical barriers to trade
- SPS … sanitary and phytosanitary measures
- Pre-shipment inspection and other formalities
thereof 12 are non-technical measures:
- antidumping (ADP)
- countervailing duties (CVD)
- (special) safeguards (SG)
- quantity control measures (e.g. quotas, licensing) (QRS)
- …
Specific trade concerns (SPS & TBT)
Note: Total number of notifications (37,982) to the WTO between 1979 and March 2015; Graph excludes 899 Specific Trade Concerns.
Sources: UNCTAD, 2013 (Classification), WTO I-TIP (NTM data), wiiw calculations.
Non-tariff measures (NTMs)
other counteracting measures (OCA)
TBT50%
SPS35%
QRS2%
ADP10%
SG1%
SSG1%
CVD1%
1. NTMs 2. AVEs
Political Economy
NTM Types
Structure Concept Method Results
5Source: WTO I-TIP; wiiw calculations
NTM Notifications to the WTO over Time
1. NTMs 2. AVEs
Political Economy
NTM Types
Structure Concept Method Results
... Bilateral Product Lines?
6Source: WTO I-TIP; wiiw calculations
NTM Notifications to the WTO by Income Level
1. NTMs 2. AVEs
Political Economy
NTM Types
Structure Concept Method Results
... Quality of Reporting?
7Source: WTO I-TIP; wiiw calculations
NTM Notifications to the WTO by HS Section
1. NTMs 2. AVEs
Political Economy
NTM Types
Structure Concept Method Results
Agri-Food Sector!
8
Ad-valorem equivalents (AVEs) of NTMsor: How to make NTMs directly comparable to tariffs?
Price gap method Indirect Approach
Wh
at? Deriving AVEs from an analysis of the price
wedge due to the implementation of NTMsDeriving AVEs with a Gravity estimation approachfrom the impact on import quantities and import demand elasticities
Wh
o?
• Dean et al., 2009
• Nimenya et al., 2012
• Cadot and Gourdon, 2015
• Kee et al., 2009
• Bratt, 2014
• Beghin et al, 2014
Issu
es
› Necessity to compare different prices along the production and supply chain
› Neglect of product quality differences
› Price data availability usually restricts to few countries for a small set of products
› Based on import demand elasticities, which are themselves estimates
› Neglect of product quality differences
1. NTMs 2. AVEs
Political Economy
NTM Types
Structure Concept Method Results
New data set (WTO I-TIP & Ghodsi et al, forthcoming)
Types of NTMs
Intensity Measure for NTMs
Panel structure
Effects by Importing Country
9
Poisson estimation procedure:
Transformation to AVEs:
Method
(1) ln 𝑚𝑖𝒋𝒕ℎ = 𝛽0ℎ + 𝛽1 ln 1 + 𝑡𝑖𝑗ℎ𝑡−1 +
𝑛=1
𝑁−1
𝛽2𝑛 𝑁𝑇𝑀𝑛𝑖𝑗ℎ𝑡−1 +
𝑖=1
𝐼
𝛽2𝑛′𝑖 𝜔𝑖 𝑁𝑇𝑀𝑛′𝑖𝑗ℎ𝑡−1
+ 𝛽3𝐶𝑖𝑗𝑡−1 + 𝜔𝑖𝑗ℎ + 𝜔𝑡 + 𝜇𝑖𝑗ℎ𝑡 ,
∀ℎ; ∀𝑛, 𝑛′ ∈ 𝐴𝐷𝑃, 𝐶𝑉𝐷, 𝑆𝐺, 𝑆𝑆𝐺, 𝑆𝑃𝑆, 𝑇𝐵𝑇, 𝑄𝑅𝑆; 𝑆𝑇𝐶𝑆𝑃𝑆, 𝑆𝑇𝐶𝑇𝐵𝑇 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑛′ ≠ 𝑛
(2) 𝜕 ln 𝑚𝑖ℎ𝜕𝑁𝑇𝑀𝑖ℎ
𝑛 =𝜕 ln 𝑚𝑖ℎ𝜕 ln 𝑝𝑖ℎ
𝜕 ln 𝑝𝑖ℎ𝜕𝑁𝑇𝑀𝑖ℎ
𝑛 = 𝜀𝑖ℎ𝐴𝑉𝐸𝑖ℎ𝑛
(3) 𝐴𝑉𝐸𝑖ℎ𝑛 =
𝑒𝛽2𝑛′𝑖 − 1
𝜀𝑖ℎ
1. NTMs 2. AVEs
Political Economy
NTM Types
Structure Concept Method Results
... and Heckman?
10
Full Sample Excluding Intra-EU Trade
NTM Mean Median Obs. NTM Mean Median Obs.
all
ADP 14.0 23.5 6,031 ADP 13.3 23.4 5,947
CVD 2.9 10.3 697 CV 5.5 15.0 692
QRS -2.0 0.0 3,922 QR -0.8 0.3 3,782
SG 4.5 3.4 91 SG 2.7 7.1 90
SSG 0.5 5.3 154 SSG 9.1 16.3 76
SPS 0.9 0.0 24,481 SPS 2.9 0.3 21,021
SPSSTC -5.2 1.1 3,658 SPSSTC -6.2 -0.1 3,645
TBT 2.7 0.8 54,298 TBT 4.1 2.1 49,356
TBTSTC 8.9 16.6 12,112 TBTSTC 9.1 17.3 11,937
Total 105,444 Total 96,546
sig
nific
ant
impact of N
TM
s
on im
port
quantities (
p <
0.1
) ADP 20.8 44.0 4,198 ADP 19.4 43.7 4,133
CVD 7.0 32.5 479 CV 9.9 34.6 467
QRS 0.8 8.6 1,407 QR 2.5 11.9 1,380
SG 21.5 46.7 38 SG 14.9 46.8 41
SSG 14.2 28.4 58 SSG 18.9 34.6 44
SPS 4.1 1.1 8,374 SPS 8.2 6.4 8,888
SPSSTC -4.7 19.1 2,267 SPSSTC -5.9 15.8 2,242
TBT 8.6 6.8 19,768 TBT 10.8 11.2 21,620
TBTSTC 18.9 48.2 7,334 TBTSTC 19.0 48.5 7,179
Total 43,923 Total 45,994
AVEs by NTM type
1. NTMs 2. AVEs
Political Economy
NTM Types
Structure Concept Method Results
Share of negative AVEs ~40%
11Note: Excluding Intra-EU trade
AVEs by Countryimport-weighted binding AVEs of SPS measures, TBTs and corresponding STCs
1. NTMs 2. AVEs
Political Economy
NTM Types
Structure Concept Method Results
... and Data Limitations
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Note: Mean binding computed as simple averages over importer-specific AVEs computed as (a) simple averages over all imported products, (b) import-
weighted averages over all imported products. Binding AVE refers to AVEs where NTMs show a significant impact on import quantities at the 10% level.
NTMs by Type vs. Binding Average AVEs
TBT50%
SPS35%
QRS2%
ADP10%
OCA3%
TBT SPS QRS ADP OCA
AVE(TBT)
(a) 5.2; (b) 5.6
AVE(SPS)
(a) 3.5; (b) 0.4
AVE(QRS)
(a) 18.0; (b) 0.2
AVE(ADP)
(a) 15.7; (b) 4.3
1. NTMs 2. AVEs
Political Economy
NTM Types
Structure Concept Method Results
AVE(OCA)
(a) 15.5; (b) -0.1
13Note: Results are based on Poisson estimation excluding intra-EU trade. s.a. and w.a. refer to simple and import-weighted averages, respectively.
AVEs by Region
1. NTMs 2. AVEs
Political Economy
NTM Types
Structure Concept Method Results
Region SPS TBT QRS ADP OCA STC
PR
OD
UC
T
(sim
ple
avg. over
countr
y-
specific
AV
Es)
Europe & Central Asia 4.4 5.2 20.5 16.7 12.9 14.6
North America -0.3 -2.6 . -2.8 7.0 -5.5
Latin America & Caribbean 2.8 5.4 4.1 29.3 0.1 5.7
East Asia & Pacific 3.7 5.6 7.3 3.3 18.4 -10.2
South Asia 2.4 0.7 . 10.2 100.6 -39.2
Middle East & North Africa 0.7 6.1 27.2 7.6 27.8 11.0
Sub-Saharan Africa 10.5 6.3 . 4.5 64.6 44.0
CO
UN
TR
Y
(sim
ple
avg. over
countr
y-
specific
i.w
. A
VE
s)
Europe & Central Asia 1.1 -0.8 0.0 6.2 1.3 -0.1
North America -0.4 -1.5 . 1.8 -0.2 -8.1
Latin America & Caribbean -4.1 4.0 -0.3 3.2 -0.8 -0.3
East Asia & Pacific 4.3 9.6 1.2 3.5 0.1 -5.0
South Asia -2.8 -4.3 . -4.4 0.3 -12.0
Middle East & North Africa -2.7 11.2 3.7 2.3 -9.4 2.5
Sub-Saharan Africa 27.3 34.8 . -1.3 0.2 34.7
WO
RL
D
(i.w
. avg. over
countr
y-
specific
i.w
. A
VE
s)
Europe & Central Asia 0.3 -3.3 -0.6 3.5 -1.2 -3.6
North America -0.5 -3.3 . 1.8 0.2 -6.5
Latin America & Caribbean 0.9 2.4 0.0 2.4 -0.5 18.7
East Asia & Pacific -2.0 5.1 -0.1 1.2 0.1 -3.5
South Asia -5.1 -8.0 . -16.3 0.0 -11.7
Middle East & North Africa -0.4 11.4 0.1 1.3 -0.3 0.1
Sub-Saharan Africa -0.3 2.5 . -1.1 0.2 1.1
14Note: Results based on Poisson estimation excluding intra-EU trade. i.w. avg. refers to import-weighted average.
AVEs by Income
1. NTMs 2. AVEs
Political Economy
NTM Types
Structure Concept Method Results
Income SPS TBT QRS ADP OCA STC
PRODUCT
(simple avg. over country-
specific AVEs)
Low income 13.6 8.6 . . . .
Lower middle income 0.5 4.2 . 6.3 52.8 7.2
Upper middle income 3.3 6.4 12.2 23.1 21.0 8.0
High income 4.1 4.6 19.1 14.1 5.9 10.1
COUNTRY
(simple avg. over country-
specific i.w. AVEs)
Low income 27.4 58.5 . . . .
Lower middle income -5.9 7.2 . -1.4 4.0 6.8
Upper middle income 2.0 4.8 0.2 2.5 0.3 2.7
High income 0.4 1.8 0.2 6.1 -1.0 -2.0
WORLD
(i.w. avg. over country-
specific i.w. AVEs)
Low income 0.9 18.0 . . . .
Lower middle income -3.8 -4.6 . -13.1 0.3 -9.4
Upper middle income -3.0 0.1 0.1 1.2 0.1 2.3
High income 0.1 -0.4 -0.3 2.5 -0.5 -4.2
15Note: Simple average by Section over country-specific import-weighted binding AVEs. Results based on Poisson estimation excluding intra-EU trade.
AVEs by Product
1. NTMs 2. AVEs
Political Economy
NTM Types
Structure Concept Method Results
16
Note: Binding AVEs by BEC/WIOD classification; WIOD refers to World Input-Output Database (www.wiod.org); BEC refers to Broad Economic
Categories; GFCF refers to Gross Fixed Capital Formation. Results based on Poisson estimation excluding intra-EU trade.
AVEs by BEC/WIOD
1. NTMs 2. AVEs
Political Economy
NTM Types
Structure Concept Method Results
Total BEC SPS TBT QRS ADP OCA STC
PRODUCT
(Simple Ø over country-
specific AVEs)
Intermediates 11.7 14.8 36.1 27.2 20.9 8.8
Final Consumption 2.1 1.3 31.4 15.4 2.7 4.9
GFCF 31.9 20.8 64.2 34.2 53.6 25.5
COUNTRY
(Simple Ø over country-
specific i.w. AVEs)
Intermediates 1.4 5.9 -0.2 5.3 0.2 -0.7
Final Consumption 1.0 -1.9 -0.4 1.9 -0.2 -1.3
GFCF 10.8 12.6 1.7 1.5 1.9 2.0
WORLD
(i.w. Ø over country-
specific i.w. AVEs)
Intermediates -3.6 2.1 -0.1 2.8 -0.5 -1.5
Final Consumption 0.2 -4.9 -1.0 0.3 -0.4 -5.6
GFCF 2.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.6
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1. New database: ♦ types of NTMs, ♦ counts of notifications, ♦ bilateral product lines,
♦ matched with HS codes, Panel data & effects by importer
2. NTMs vs. AVEs:
♦ Non-tariff measures need not be non-tariff barriers!
♦ By types: TBTs dominate data, AVEs highest for ADP
♦ By income: more NTMs used (notified?) by richer countries, but lower AVEs
♦ Aggregates of AVEs: hiding variation vs. detecting hotspots
3. Implications beyond the impact on international trade?
Conclusion
1. NTMs 2. AVEs
Political Economy
NTM Types
Structure Concept Method Results
Wiener Institut für
Internationale
Wirtschaftsvergleiche
The Vienna Institute for
International Economic
Studies
www.wiiw.ac.at
Julia Grübler (with Mahdi Ghodsi and Robert Stehrer)
Banque de France and European Central Bank Workshop:
Task Force on Global Trade
20 June 2016
Assessing the Impact
of Non-Tariff Measures on Imports
This paper was produced as part of the PRONTO (Productivity, Non-Tariff Measures and Openness) project funded by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme.
Merci!
19
Beghin, J., A.-C. Disdier, S. Marette (2014). ‘Trade Restrictiveness Indices in Presence of externalities: An Application to Non-tariff Measures’, CESifo Working Paper No. 4968, September 2014.
Bratt, M. (2014). ‘Estimating the bilateral impact of non-tariff measures (NTMs)’, Working Paper WPS 14-01-1, Université de Genève.
Cadot, O. and J. Gourdon (2015). ‘NTMs, Preferential Trade Agreements, and Prices: New evidence’, Working Papers 2015-01, CEPII research center.
Dean, J.M., J. Signoret, R.M. Feinberg, R.D. Ludema, and M.J. Ferrantino (2009). ‘Estimating the Price Effects of Non-Tariff Barriers’, The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 9 (1), Art. 12.
Dür, A., L. Baccini, and M. Elsig (2014), ‘The Design of International Trade Agreements: Introducing a New Database.’, Review of International Organizations.
Ghodsi, M., R. Stehrer, and O. Reiter, (forthcoming) ‘Compilation of a Database for Non-Tariff Measures from the WTO Integrated Trade Intelligence Portal (WTO I-TIP)’; mimeo, wiiw, Vienna..
Kee, H.L, A. Nicita, und M. Olarreaga (2009). ‘Estimating Trade Restrictiveness Indices’, The Economic Journal, 119: 172-199.
Nimenya, N., P.-F. Ndimira and B. H. de Frahan (2012). ‘Tariff equivalents of nontariff measures: the case of European horticultural and fish imports from African countries’, Agricultural Economics, 43: 635-653.
UNCTAD (2013), ‘Classification of non-tariff measures.’ February 2012 Version, New York and Geneva. URL: http://unctad.org/en/pages/PublicationWebflyer.aspx?publicationid=299
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