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Transcript of Assessing the Impact of Financial Aid on Student Success SHEEO Higher Education Policy Conference...
Assessing the Impact of Financial Aid on Student Success
SHEEO Higher Education Policy Conference
August 8, 2012
Objectives for our time together
Project Overview
Louisiana Findings
Oklahoma Findings
Discussion
1
2
3
4
About the research partnership
Two papers have already been released on LA findings
Research Questions
• How does the level and mix of financial assistance affect retention and completion among Pell Grant recipients?
• Can we observe differences in the retention of Pell Grant recipients versus students in other financial classifications (needy non-Pell recipients and no-need students)?
Research Questions
• Can we identify flex points in the size and composition of financial aid awards where additional dollars yield diminishing or no returns? Can we help the state’s package aid more efficiently by eliminating “overpayment” to some students and shifting that money to students who might otherwise be inclined to drop out?
Research Questions
• How do state-based aid programs (TOPS, Go Grant, OK Promise and OTAG) interact with the Pell Grant and with want impact on student retention and completion?
• What is the best use of the state’s financial aid investments?
Key Project Outcomes for the LA Regents and OSRHE
• Conduct custom policy research• Assist in advancing policy changes
as needed• Develop report shells based on
findings• Develop internal capacity to analyze
and monitor data in the future
Louisiana findings
High school GPA* was the strongest academic preparation variable
< 3.00 3.00 - 3.49 3.50 - 3.74 3.75 - 4.0040.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
55.0%
70.0%
79.0%
87.0%
Ret
entio
n R
ate
High School GPA
* 2,817 records (out of 37,251) were missing a high school GPA (they retained at 58%)
< 3.00 3.00 - 3.49 3.50 - 3.74 3.75 - 4.0040.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
No Pell Pell
Once we control for high school GPA*, Pell recipients retain as well as other students with
demonstrated financial needR
eten
tion
Rat
e
High School GPA Range
Among Pell recipients, as the percentage of need met with gift aid increases so does student retention
All Records
% Need Met with Gift Retain Did Not Retain Total Retention
Rate
<30 1301 1363 2664 48.8%40 1449 1103 2552 56.8%50 1622 936 2558 63.4%60 1308 537 1845 70.9%70 1136 408 1544 73.6%80+ 1958 462 2420 80.9%Grand Total 8774 4809 13583 64.6%
Chi-Square Results:df 5
value 727.1p-value <.0001 <30 40 50 60 70 80+
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Retention Rate by % Need Met w/Gift, All Records
Increasing the gift percentage from less than 30 percent to 60 percent corresponds to a 22 percentage point increase in the retention rate, while increasing the percentage of need met with gift aid from 60 percent to 70 percent increases retention by only 3 points.
Pell Only Pell + GO Pell + TOPS Pell + GO + TOPS
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
34.0%
47.5%
63.0%
73.9%
53.8%59.4%
73.3% 74.9%
Need Met with Gift Aid Retention Rate
Adding the Go Grant alone increases the percentage of need met with gift aid by 14 percentage points and provides a
5.6 percentage point improvement in retention
All pairwise comparisons of means are significant except for retention rate between Pell+TOPS and Pell+GO+TOPS
Oklahoma findings
High school GPA was used as the control for academic preparation because it
entered a predictive model we built on the data set
Note: In our 2010 work, we used ACT composite as the control variable, but that was not based on a model
39.3%
28.2%
17.1%
7.7%
7.6%
Relative Strength of Model Variables
Percent Need Met with Gift
High School GPA
EFC>0 Flag
Distance from Campus
Institution Code
Table 3: Fall-to-Fall Same School Retention by HSGPAFall 2006, Fall 2007, Fall 2008
HSGPA All Pell Needy, no
Range Students Recipients Pell Grant
< 3.00 47% 51% 45%
3.00 - 3.49 61% 62% 60%
3.50 - 3.74 71% 70% 73%
3.75 - 4.00 81% 82% 78%
GPA missing 53% 54% 57%
Total 62% 62% 63%
Pell Grant recipients retain as well as students in other categories
This parity in performance is encouraging given the vast difference in family income between the Pell students ( approx. $20,000) and students with demonstrated financial need without Pell Grants (approx. $56,000)
There is a relationship between the percentage of need met with gift aid and retention among Pell recipients
Less than 28% 29% to 50% 51% to 79% 80% and above0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
2.86 and below 2.87 to 3.35 3.36 to 3.63 3.64 and above
% of Need Met with Gift
Ret
enti
on
Rat
e
<3.0 3.0-3.49 3.5-3.74 >3.74 Total30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
Pell Grant Only, No Promise or OTAG Pell and Promise, No OTAG Pell and OTAG, No Promise Pell, Promise and OTAGTotal (All Pell Recipients)
Retention rates by combinations of Pell Grants and Promise/OTAG
Questions
Questions and Discussion