Assessing the Impact of Data Quality on Pavement ...PE 2019 Assessing the Impact of Data Quality on...
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PE 2019 Assessing the Impact of Data Quality on Pavement Management Systems By Ahmad Alhasan and Omar Smadi Center for Transportation Research and Education/ Iowa State University [email protected]
Transcript of Assessing the Impact of Data Quality on Pavement ...PE 2019 Assessing the Impact of Data Quality on...
PE 2019
Assessing the Impact of Data Quality on Pavement
Management SystemsBy
Ahmad Alhasan and Omar Smadi
Center for Transportation Research and Education/ Iowa State University
PE 2019
Observe, analyze, model, predict, and decide.
Leonardo Fibonacci 1170 - 1250
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From data collection to decision making.
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It all starts with monitoring and evaluation inventory.
https://newscenter.nmsu.edu/articles/view/8486
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It all starts with monitoring and evaluation inventory.
http://www.pavemetrics.com/applications/road-inspection/lcms2-en/#!
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From data collection to decision making.
PE 2019
Data can be arranged in a GIS database.
http://data.iowadot.gov/datasets/48bfff7ffbfa4555bed8c374e44c9300_3?geometry=-102.09%2C40.522%2C-84.666%2C43.381
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From data collection to decision making.
PE 2019
Performance starts beautiful and becomes ugly.
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Shopping for models.
https://www.workingmother.com/back-to-school-childrens-fashion-2016
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A model can be a law or a theory.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_law
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What is a model?
• Mathematically we can define (model) any condition data
observation for any asset as a function 𝑓 𝐗, 𝑡 with error term
𝜖𝑖:
𝑦𝑖 = 𝑓 𝐗, 𝑡 + 𝜖𝑖
• Where 𝑦𝑖 is the condition record described as a function of
multiple independent variables contained in 𝐗 at a given time t.
• Many approaches can be used to find the function describing
the change in condition over time.
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Variability or Uncertainty?!
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Variability or Uncertainty?!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamma_distribution
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Check the assumptions.
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Check the assumptions.
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Choose proper regression model.
Ƹ𝜇 = 𝑒𝛽0+𝛽1𝐴𝑔𝑒
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Look deeper.
•𝑓𝐼𝑅𝐼 =𝐼𝑅𝐼 Τෝ𝜇 𝑇 −1𝑒− Τ𝐼𝑅𝐼 𝜑
Γ Τෝ𝜇 𝜑 𝜑 Τෝ𝜇 𝜑
• 𝐸 𝐼𝑅𝐼 = ො𝜇
• 𝑉𝑎𝑟 𝐼𝑅𝐼 = ො𝜇𝜑
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Variability and Uncertainty Decomposition.
𝑦𝑖 = 𝑓 𝐗, 𝑡 + 𝜖𝑖Is my model
good?!
http://berkeleysciencereview.com/importance-uncertainty/
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Filtering can make data noisy.
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Filtering can make data noisy.
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Would cleaner data help?
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Would cleaner data help?
• Repeated measurements were removed and the errors were reduced by half.
• 𝜎∗2 = 0.52 𝜎2
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From data collection to decision making.
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If you know your past you might know your future!
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If you know your past you might know your future!
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Better data can reduce the uncertainty.
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From data collection to decision making.
PE 2019
Data is great but harder to report and use in decision making.
https://www.tilburguniversity.edu/education/professional-learning/sensible-business-decisions-under-uncertainty
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Better data can reduce the uncertainty.
• Both models expect Fair condition.
• 𝑃1 𝐶 ≠ 𝐹𝑎𝑖𝑟 = 0.3
• 𝑃1 𝐶 ≠ 𝐹𝑎𝑖𝑟 = 0.15
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If you are uncertain ask questions
https://projectscreenwriter.com/2017/01/25/loglines-and-a-lot-of-head-scratching/
