Assessing the GIA Contribution to SNARF
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Transcript of Assessing the GIA Contribution to SNARF
Assessing the GIA Contribution to SNARF
Mark Tamisiea, James Davis, and Emma Hill
Proudman Oceanographic LaboratoryHarvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics
GIA Predictions
1) Ice history (both spatial and temporal)2) Earth model
a) mantle viscosityb) lithospheric thicknessc) elastic parametersd) spherical symmetry
3) Theory, code
GIA Predictions
1) Ice history (both spatial and temporal)2) Earth model
a) mantle viscosityb) lithospheric thicknessc) elastic parametersd) spherical symmetry
3) Theory, code
Data generally used to constrain 1, 2a, and 2b.
New Approach
• Treat model predictions as statistical quantities (Bayesian approach)
• Combine data and models using assimilation techniques
• How do we get model “uncertainties”?
• Calculate field mean, covariance over suite of reasonable Earth, ice models
Prior Correlation wrt ALGO
• Given a geodetic solution with site velocities VGPS at locations (), we can describe the solution using
• The velocity rotation and translation parameters are unknown and must be estimated as part of the SNARF definition
Frame Parameters
Assimilation (SNARF 1.0)• Parameters:
– 3-D GIA deformations– GPS reference frame parameters
• Data– GPS solution (T. Herring, E. Calais, M. Craymer)
• Locations: 2° 2° grid plus GPS sites• GIA models
– Milne et al. [2001] Earth models– ICE1 [Peltier & Andrews, 1976]
• Approach– sequential least-squares, “inside-out” algorithm
Prefit statistics:
WRMS (hor): 1.22 mm/yrWRMS (rad): 3.81 mm/yrWRMS (all): 1.74 mm/yr
Postfit statistics:
WRMS (hor): 0.71 mm/yrWRMS (rad): 1.30 mm/yrWRMS (all): 0.80 mm/yr
SNARF 1.0 GIA Field
Changes, Recent Work
• ICE-5G [Peltier, 2004]• Denser GPS solution [Sella et al., 2007]• Tests exploring
– Impact of starting model– Ability to recover motions caused by 3D Earth
structure– Assimilating GRACE data– Contribution of horizontal velocity observations to
vertical velocity solution
GIA Field Using ICE-5G
Prefit statistics:
WRMS (hor): 1.27 mm/yrWRMS (rad): 5.95 mm/yrWRMS (all): 2.36 mm/yr
Postfit statistics:
WRMS (hor): 0.69 mm/yrWRMS (rad): 1.27 mm/yrWRMS (all): 0.78 mm/yr
Impact of Different GPS Solution
SNARF 1.0 Sella et al., 2007
Difference
Frame Parameters
Impact of Background Model
Ability to Recover Differences Caused by 3D Structure
Model Covariances
• Example: covariance of east component of deformation at point 1 with radial component of deformation at point 2:
• Covariance matrix has “physics” of GIA
GPS Data Assimilation• We simultaneously estimate six
rotation and translation para-meters, and GIA velocities at n grid locations and at m GPS sites
• At right, the parameter vector (u = east velocity, v = north, w = radial)
• The observations consist of (u,v,w) for GPS sites
• The GIA values at the grid locations are adjusted through the covariances calculated from the suite of model predictions
Assimilation (SNARF 1.0)
• Ice model: Ice-1 [Peltier & Andrews, 1976]• Earth models: Spherically symmetric three-
layer, range of elastic lithospheric thicknesses, upper and lower mantle viscosities (see Milne et al., 2001)
• Elastic parameters: PREM• GPS data set: Velocities from “good” GPS
sites, NAREF solution from Mike Craymer• Placed in approximate NA frame by Tom
Herring (unnecessary step but simpler)