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Assessing Progressin Africa towardthe Millennium
Development Goals
MDG Report 2011
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Assessing Progress
in Arica towardthe MillenniumDevelopment Goals
MDG Report 2011
FONDSA
FRICAINDEDVEL
OPP
EM
EN
T
AFR
ICAN
DEVELOPMENTF
UND
B A
NQUEA
FRICAIN
E DEDVELOPPE
MEN
T
African Development Bank Group African UnionEconomic Commissionfor Africa
United NationsDevelopment Programme
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Assessing Progress in Arica toard te Millennim Development Goals, 2011 iii
Tale o
Contents
List o Tables iv
List o Figures v
Foreword viii
Acknowledgments x
List o Abbreviations xii
SECTION I: Intodction 1
SECTION II: Tacking Pogess 4Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger 4
Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education 24
Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women 32
Goal 4: Reduce child mortality 41
Goal 5: Improve maternal health 50Goal 6: Combat HIV, AIDS, malaria, and other major diseases 62
Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability 73
Goal 8: Develop a global partnership or development 88
SECTION III: Socia potection as an instment to acceeate pogess toadte MDGs in Aica 100
SECTION IV: Concsions and pespectives on te post-2015 MDG agenda 122
Reerences and Web Resources 126
Annex 1: Ocial list o MDG indicators 132
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Assessing Progress in Arica toard te Millennim Development Goals, 2011iv
List o
Tables
Table 1: Indicators o the working poor in Arica, 19992009 15
Table 2: Share o vulnerable employment in total employment in Arica, 19982009 17
Table 3: Prevalence o underweight under 5-year-olds or selected Arican countries,
19901999 and 20002009 (%) 21
Table 4: Eleven leading and lagging countries on reducing malnutrition, 19902007 23Table 5: HIV/AIDS statistics or Arica (excluding North Arica), 2001 and 2009 62
Table 6: Malaria death rate per 100,000 population o all ages, 2008 70
Table 7: Consumption o ozone-depleting substances in Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP)
metric tons, 1996 and 2008 77
Table 8: Proportion o terrestrial and marine areas protected to total territorial area,
1990 and 2009 (%) 78
Table 9: Proportion o population using an improved drinking water source, 1990 and
2008 (%) 79
Table 10: Proportion o population using an improved sanitation acility, 1990 and2008 (%) 83
Table 11: Total bilateral aid to all sectors rom DAC countries, 20052010 (US$ million) 91
Table 12: ODA to Arica by sector, 20052009 (as % o total bilateral commitments) 92
Table 13: Classication o Arican countries by HIPC status (as o December 17, 2010) 94
Table 14: Internet users per 100 population, 2000 and 2009 99
Table 15: Potential contributions o various social protection interventions to the MDGs 106
Table 16: Cases o successul social protection interventions in Arica 115
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Assessing Progress in Arica toard te Millennim Development Goals, 2011 v
List o
Figures
Figure 1: The declining poverty trend in Arica (excluding North Arica) compared to
the trended target or 2015 5
Figure 2: Percentage change in population living below the poverty level (US$ 125)
between 1998 and 2008 6
Figure 3: Poverty gap ratio by Arican subregion, 2008 (%) 6Figure 4: Projected impact o the economic crisis on poverty reduction in Arica
(excluding North Arica), 20052020 8
Figure 5: Growth o labor productivity in Arica and other developing regions, 20002009 9
Figure 6: Percentage change in GDP per capita, 19902009 10
Figure 7: Employment-to-population ratio by Arican subregion, 1991 and 2008 (%) 12
Figure 8: Percentage change in employment-to-population ratio or selected Arican
countries, 19912008 13
Figure 9: Hunger index or Arica, 1990 and 2010 18
Figure 10: Proportion o undernourished population in Arica (excluding North Arica)compared to other developing countries, 19902010 22
Figure 11: Progress in net enrollment in primary education or selected Arican countries,
1991 and 2008/2009 (%) 25
Figure 12: Gap to net enrollment target in primary education or selected Arican countries,
2008 27
Figure 13: Primary education expenditure as % o total educational expenditure 29
Figure 14: Primary education enrollment and completion rates or selected Arican countries,
2008 30
Figure 15: Primary completion rate or selected Arican countries (a) both sexes, 1999 and2008 (%) and (b) disaggregated by sex, 2008 (%) 31
Figure 16a: Literacy rate, both sexes, 2008 (%); 16b: Literacy rate disaggregated by sex,
2008 (%) 33
Figure 17: Gender Parity Index in primary level enrollment, selected Arican countries,
1991 and 2008 34
Figure 18: Gender Parity Index in primary education by Arican subregion, 1999 and 2008 35
Figure 19: Gender Parity Index in secondary level enrollment, selected Arican countries,
1991 and 2008 36
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Assessing Progress in Arica toard te Millennim Development Goals, 2011vi
Figure 20: Gender Parity Index in tertiary education or selected Arican countries, 1991
and 2008 37
Figure 21: Share o women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector 39
Figure 22: Percentage o seats held by women in national parliaments, 1990 and 2010 40
Figure 23: Countries with the highest under-ve mortality rates in Arica in 2009 42
Figure 24: Progress toward reducing the U5MR rate 1990, 2009, and 2015 (target) 43Figure 25: The nine best U5MR-perorming countries, 1990 and 2009 44
Figure 26: Progress in reducing the Inant Mortality Rate (per 1,000 live births), 19902009 45
Figure 27: The seven best IMR-perorming countries, 1990 and 2009 47
Figure 28: Four worst IMR-perorming countries, 19902009 (reductions o 10% or less) 48
Figure 29: Progress on measles vaccination among Arican countries, 19902009 (%) 49
Figure 30: Maternal Mortality Ratio or selected global regions, 1990 and 2008
(per 100,000 live births) 52
Figure 31: Maternal Mortality Ratio or selected Arican countries, 2008 (per 100,000
live births) 53Figure 32: Proportion o births attended by skilled health personnel by region, 19901999
and 20002009 (%) 54
Figure 33: Proportion o births attended by skilled health personnel or selected Arican
countries, 19901999 and 20002009 (%) 55
Figure 34: Percentage o married women aged 1549 using any contraceptive method,
19901999 and 20002009 57
Figure 35: Dierent types o contraceptive use among married women aged 1549 years,
2000 and 2009 58
Figure 36: Number o births per 1,000 adolescent women aged 1519 years, 19901999and 20002009 59
Figure 37: Number o antenatal care visits by trained healthcare practitioner in 38 Arican
country surveys, 20002009 60
Figure 38: Unmet need or amily planning in 34 Arican country surveys, 20002009 61
Figure 39: Adult HIV prevalence in Arican countries, 2001 and 2009 (%) 64
Figure 40: Adult HIV prevalence by global region, 2009 65
Figure 41: Ratio o school attendance o orphans to non-orphans aged 1014 years in
selected Arican countries, 2008 67
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Assessing Progress in Arica toard te Millennim Development Goals, 2011 vii
Figure 42: Tuberculosis incidence rate per 100,000 population by Arican subregion,
19902008 72
Figure 43: Tuberculosis prevalence rate per 100,000 population by Arican subregion,
19902008 72
Figure 44: Tuberculosis death rate per 100,000 population by Arican subregion,
19902008 73Figure 45: Metric tons o CO2 emissions per capita (CDIAC), 1990 and 2007 75
Figure 46: Progress on access to an improved water source rural and urban
(% o total population), 1990 and 2008 80
Figure 47: Progress on urban access to an improved water source (% o urban population),
1990 and 2008 81
Figure 48: Progress on rural access to an improved water source (% o rural population),
1990 and 2008 82
Figure 49: Progress on access to improved sanitation acilities urban and rural
(% o total population), 1990 and 2008 84Figure 50: Progress on rural access to improved sanitation acilities (% o rural population),
1990 and 2008 85
Figure 51: Progress on urban access to improved sanitation acilities (% o urban population),
1990 and 2008 86
Figure 52: Slum population as a percentage o urban population or selected countries,
1990 and 2007 87
Figure 53: Net ODA as a percentage o GNI, 2009 and 2010 90
Figure 54: Telephone lines per 100 population, 2000 and 2009 95
Figure 55: Cellular subscribers per 100 population, 2009 97Figure 56: Correlation between social protection and health outcomes, 2007 114
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Assessing Progress in Arica toard te Millennim Development Goals, 2011viii
Foreword
This report continues the tradition o excellent
collaboration among the Pan Arican institutions
the Arican Union Commission (AUC), the United
Nations Economic Commission or Arica (ECA),
the Arican Development Bank (ADB), and the
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) It
provides the latest update on Aricas progress to-
wards the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs),ollowing the landmark September 2010 High
Level Panel event This event noted that the global
achievement o the MDGs by 2015 is still possible
through strengthened international partnership,
closer collaboration between national authorities
and development partners, and committed political
will at the national level
The report notes that progress toward the MDGsis continuing, but that the ood, uel, and nancial
crises over the past ew years, coupled with the
instability in North Arica in 2011, may impact on
the pace o advancement This calls or eorts to
be redoubled to preserve gains and ensure success
In particular, declines in labor productivity, increas-
ing youth unemployment, and rising numbers o
working poor are worrisome trends or the conti-nent Indeed, the recent political developments in
North Arica and the Middle East are a wake-up
call both or Arica and other global regions on
the need or a more inclusive and equitable ap-
proach to growth
The rising numbers o the working poor should
also remind us that the essence o job creation is
to provide a decent living wage and not simply a
wage Furthermore, the disproportionate represen-
tation o women among the ranks o the working
poor calls or more concerted eorts to addressthe gender imbalance in the workorce, ocusing
not only on the share o emale employees but
on their distribution across the broad spectrum o
occupational and skills categories
The report underscores that the MDGs are closely
interlinked, hence the need or an integrated ap-
proach to accelerate their achievement To this
end, it is imperative that policymakers prioritizethose interventions that will have the greatest
leverage or cascading eects on a wider range
o indicators For instance, we know that gender
empowerment, education, poverty, and health are
inextricably linked We must thereore exploit these
and other relationships to sharpen the strategic
ocus o our interventions
Monitoring is central to assessing perormance onthe MDGs Eective monitoring requires more sub-
stantial investments in data collection, analysis, and
dissemination than is currently the case in Arica
Improved data coverage and quality, particularly
at subnational levels, are critical or unmasking
intra-country variations on MDGs perormance
and in identiying pockets o vulnerability as a
basis or targeted interventions Indeed, this report
continues to observe considerable variations inMDGs perormance between subregions, within
subregions, and within individual countries
Despite the slow progress recorded on several indi-
cators in Arica, there are a number o documented
best practices and lessons that can be harnessed
in order to accelerate progress It is encouraging
to note that these success stories can be ound
even in countries recovering rom conficts, such
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Assessing Progress in Arica toard te Millennim Development Goals, 2011 ix
less likely to be met in the current environment
o scal consolidation in response to the global
economic crisis However, it is encouraging to notethat developing countries are beneting rom new
donors that are non-DAC members and rom pri-
vate sector donations rom advanced economies
Nonetheless, aid to Arican countries is expected
to rise by only 1 percent per year between 2011
and 2013, in real terms Beyond advocacy or more
ODA, stepped-up eorts are thereore required on
a number o ronts, namely to seek out alternative
sources o nancing; to be more judicious in the useo existing resources; and to develop credible and
robust systems o domestic resource mobilization
Undoubtedly, aid eectiveness requires close align-
ment o donor assistance with national priorities,
including the MDGs To this end, implementation
o the Paris Declaration and Accra Agenda or Ac-
tion is key to ensuring a sharper ocus by donors
on the objectives o recipient countries towardpoverty reduction and development
We wish to thank all those who have contributed
to the preparation o this report We commend
and encourage the reports commitment to take
into account the views and experiences o lead-
ers, policymakers, and development practitioners
who are actively promoting the achievement o
the MDGs in Arica and especially in meeting theagreed targets
as Liberia and Sierra Leone These countries have
made remarkable progress in inant mortality
(Liberia) and maternal health (Sierra Leone) Theirperormance demonstrates that with the right level
o political will and appropriate external support,
the MDGs can be achieved even under very di-
cult conditions
In this report we underscore the potential or social
protection programs in accelerating progress to-
ward the MDGs Consequently, we urge policymak-
ers to recalibrate their social protection programs,so that they are perceived not as handouts but
rather as measures to strengthen productive assets
These perspectives are pertinent and timely in light
o the impact o the ood, uel, and nancial crises
on the lives o many It is clear that the role o the
state in designing and implementing innovative
and scally sustainable social protection programs
is more vital now than ever beore
Domestic resources must be complemented by
scaled-up development assistance i Arican coun-
tries are to attain the MDGs In this regard, we
call or increased development assistance or the
achievement o the MDGs in Arica and note with
concern that several Ocial Development Assist-
ance (ODA) commitments to Arica, including those
made in Monterrey in 2002, Gleneagles in 2005,
and LAquila in 2009, have yet to be ullled Amore worrisome prospect is that they are even
Jean Ping
Chairperson
Arican UnionCommission
Donald Kaberuka
President
Arican DevelopmentBank Group
Abdoulie Janneh
Executive Secretary
Economic Commissionor Arica
Helen Clark
Administrator
United NationsDevelopment
Programme
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Assessing Progress in Arica toard te Millennim Development Goals, 2011x
Acknowledgments
Commissioner or Economic Aairs), Mrs Jennier
Kargbo (ECA Deputy Executive Secretary), Proes-
sor Mthuli Ncube (ADB Chie Economist & Vice
President), and Mr Tegegnework Gettu, Director
o UNDP Regional Bureau or Arica (UNDP) The
United Nations Under-Secretary-General and Ex-
ecutive Secretary o ECA, Mr Abdoulie Janneh,
the Chairperson o the AUC, Dr Jean Ping, thePresident o the Arican Development Bank, Dr
Donald Kaberuka, and Helen Clark, Administrator
UNDP, provided general guidance
Many others outside the core team provided
useul comments This includes Dimitri Sanga,
Thokozile Ruzvidzo Adam Elhiraika (ECA) and
Oumou Camara (AUC) In particular, this report
was enriched through contributions by additionalresource persons, namely: Elizabeth Eilor (ECA) on
Goal 3; Mady Biaye and Fredrick Mugisha (UNFPA)
on Goal 5; Warren Naamara (UNAIDS) and Juliet
Nabyonga (WHO) on Goal 6; Andrew Mold (OECD)
on Goal 8; and Andrew Mundalo Allieu (ILO) on
Social Protection Raj Gautam Mitra (ECA) assisted
in enriching the data components o the report
Data used in this report mainly emanate rom the
database o the United Nations Statistics Division(UNSD) However, where UNSD data were not
current, data rom international organizations
such as World Health Organization (WHO), the
Organization or Economic Cooperation and De-
velopment (OECD), International Telecommunica-
tion Union (ITU), United Nations Childrens Fund
(UNICEF), United Nations Educational, Scientic
and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), and the
World Bank were used Some o the background
This report is a joint product o the United Nations
Economic Commission or Arica (ECA), Arican
Union Commission (AUC), Arican Development
Bank (ADB), and the United Nation Development
Programme-Regional Bureau or Arica (UNDP-
RBA) It has been prepared by a core team led by
Bartholomew Armah, Chie o the MDGs/LDCs
Section, Economic Development and NEPAD Divi-sion (EDND) (ECA), Dossina Yeo, Acting Head o
Statistics Division, Economic Aairs Department
(AUC), Beejaye Kokil, Manager o Economic and So-
cial Statistics Division (ADB), and Ayodele Odusola,
MDG Advisor, Strategic Advisory Unit, Regional
Bureau or Arica (UNDP) The team included Adrian
Gauci (ECA), Ndinaye Sekwi Charumbira (AUC),
Maurice Mubila (ADB), Chrystelle Tsaack Temah
(ECA), Julianne Deitch (ECA), Selamawit Mussie(ADB/ECA), Tsega H Belai (ECA), Janet Byaruhanga
(AUC), Leila Ben Ali (AUC), Abdellaziz Ben Hadj
Abdellati (ADB), Alice Nabalamba (ADB), Mulle
Chikoko (ADB), Sebastian Levine (UNDP), Soane
Kouidhi (UNDP), Deniz Kellocioglu (ECA), Meron
Assea Arega (ECA), and Alassane Drabo (ECA)
The work was carried out under the supervision
o Proessor Emmanuel Nnadozie, Director o theEconomic Development and NEPAD Division (ECA),
Dr Ren NGuettia Kouassi, Director o Economic
Aairs Department (AUC), Dr Charles Leyeka
Luumpa, Director, Statistics Department (ADB),
and Pedro Conceio, Chie Economist, Regional
Bureau or Arica (UNDP)
The report was prepared under the general
direction o Dr Maxwell Mkwezalamba (AUC
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Assessing Progress in Arica toard te Millennim Development Goals, 2011 xi
work was supported by resources provided by ECA
Joint Pool Partners
The team undertook a wide range o consultations
or this Report rom the initial concept note to the
nal drat These consultations included an Arica
regional expert group and validation meeting on
the MDGs held in Kampala, Uganda on March
1011, 2011 The countries represented at the ad
hoc expert group meeting, along with the names
o the experts are: Algeria: HE Ambassador Ben-
lounes Rachid; Benin: Appolinaire Adeyemi Tol-legbe, Apko Samuel Romain; Botswana: Tebatso
Chalashika; Cameroon: Severin Tchomth;Central
Arican Republic: Iyo Ghilain Yvon; Chad: Ah-
mat Al-hadj Hamida, Mbaiogoum; Congo: Fred
Chrisian Bokilo, Bassisila Theophile Seraphin; Cte
dIvoire: Kone Mibanaw Hippolype; Democratic
Republic of Congo (DRC): Godroid Kabuki Sin-
zidi; Djibouti: Abdourazak Aden Okieh; Egypt:
Ahmed Fahmy Shahin; Ethiopia: Markos FelekeKoira; Gabon: Edwige Noure Ella; The Gambia:
Samba Jallow; Ghana: H E Kwesi Quartey, Wil-
liam Okaikoe, Adjei-Fosu Kwaku, Enyan Ernest;
Guinea: Balde Saikou Ahmed Tidiane, Charles
Yaya Diallo; Guinea-Bissau: Idilio Sousa Condeiro;
Lesotho: Liniwe Maleleka; Liberia: Vita Ishmael
Tue; Madagascar: Randranjanaka Niana Raveloma-
nana; Malawi: Victoria Chanaichi Geresomo; Mali:
Moriba Doumbia; Mauritania: Ould Salem Samba;Mauritius: Jumoondar Sunkur; Mozambique:
Sergio Sebastiao Hele; Namibia: Jan Johannes
Swartz, Sapaloy Tuleingepo Quita, Esther Ilonga;
Niger: Bakaye Saadou, Karimou Bassirou; Nigeria:
Muhammad Sani Abdullahi, Lawal Yusu Aboki;So Tom & Prncipe: Fausto Policarpo Abreu
das Neves, Hengdos Santos; Senegal: Nalar Ko-
nady Serge Manel, Ousmane Diop; Seychelles:
Christian Faure; Sierra Leone: Andrew Kamara;
Somalia: Jibril Mohammed Osman; South Af-
rica: Christopher Mulaudzi, Hugo Bassoon, Stan
Montsho; The Sudan: HE Ambassador Akuei
Bona Malwal, Somaia Omer; Swaziland: Da-
vid Nkosinathi Kuene; Tanzania: Elide Mwanri;Togo: Sodokpo-Aan Mwaoussi, Samati Komlan
Nouwokpo; Tunisia: Faial Masmoudi; Uganda:
John Male-Mukasa, Grace Gulree, Rutaro Thomas,
Lydia Tuhaise; Zambia: Linda Nyangu Chonya; and
Zimbabwe: Hazel Chigwedere, Taizivei Mungate
Also in attendance were: AUC: Molalet Tsedke;
UNDP: Theophane Nikyema and David Marcos;
UNFPA: Mugisha Polly; ILO: Tite Habiyakare, Hon-or Toro Djerma, Theo Spaarboom; Salvator Matata
and Anthony Jude Walakira; EU: Elizabeth Ongom
An abridged version o this Report was presented
to the Committee o Experts o the Fourth Joint
ECA Conerence o Ministers o Finance, Planning
and Economic Development and the AU Coner-
ence o Arican Ministers o Economy and Finance,
in March 2011, in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia This nalversion has been enriched by their comments
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List o
AbbreviationsACT Artemisinin-based Combination
Therapy
ADB Arican Development Bank
AIDS Acquired Immunodeciency
Syndrome
ALSF Arican Legal Support FacilityANEM Algeria National Employment
Agency
ART Antiretroviral Therapy
AUC Arican Union Commission
CAADP Comprehensive Arican Agriculture
Development Program
CAR Central Arican Republic
CARMMA Campaign on Accelerated
Reduction o Maternal Mortality inArica
CBD Convention on Biological Diversity
CBHI Community Based Health Insurance
CDIAC Carbon Dioxide Inormation
Analysis Center
CFCs Chlorofuorocarbons
CIS Commonwealth o Independent
States
COPE Care o the People (Nigeria)CPR Contraceptive Prevalence Rate
CSG Child Support Grant
DAC Development Assistance
Committee
DI Disability Insurance
DFID Department or International
Development (UK)
DHS Demographic and Health Survey
DOTS Directly Observed Short-Course
Treatment
DRC Democratic Republic o Congo
EAC East Arican Community
ECA Economic Commission or Arica
ECOWAS Economic Community o WestArican States
EDND Economic Development and NEPAD
Division
ERD European Report on Development
EPA Economic Partnership Agreement
EPRI Economic Policy Research Institute
(South Arica)
ESA Eastern and Southern Arica
EU European UnionFAO Food and Agriculture Organization
FHCI Free Health Care Initiative (Sierra
Leone)
FISP Farm Input Subsidy Program
FSP Food Security Program
GAFSP Global Agricultural and Food
Security Program
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GHI Global Hunger IndexGNI Gross National Income
GPI Gender Parity Index
HAART Highly Active Anti-Retroviral
Treatment
HDI Human Development Index
HIPCs Heavily Indebted Poor Countries
HIV Human Immunodeciency Virus
ICT Inormation Communications
Technology
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IFAD International Fund or Agricultural
Development
IFPRI International Food Policy ResearchInstitute
IGAD Inter-Governmental Authority on
Development
IGME Inter-agency Group or Child
Mortality Estimation
ILO International Labor Organization
IMF International Monetary Fund
IMR Inant Mortality Rate
ITNs Insecticide Treated NetsITU International Telecommunication
Union
IUCN International Union or
Conservation o Nature
IUDs Intrauterine devices
LDCs Least Developed Countries
LEAP Livelihood Empowerment Against
Poverty program (Ghana)
LIFDC Low-Income Food-Decit CountryMAF MDG Acceleration Framework
MDGs Millennium Development Goals
MMR Maternal Mortality Ratio
MPS Making Pregnancy Sae Initiative
NEPAD New Partnership or Aricas
Development
ODA Ocial Development Assistance
ODI Overseas Development Institute
(UK)ODP Ozone Depletion Potential
ODS Ozone Depleting Substances
OECD Organization or Economic
Cooperation and Development
OVC Orphans and Vulnerable Children
PEPFAR Presidents Emergency Plan For
AIDS Relie (US)
PMTCT Prevention o Mother to Child
Transmission
PPP Purchasing Power Parity
PSNP Productive Saety Net Program
(Ethiopia)RSA Republic o South Arica
SADC Southern Arican Development
Community
SI Social Insurance
SOAP State Old Age Pension
SPF Social Protection Floor
TB Tuberculosis
U5MR Under-Five Mortality Rate
UEMOA Union conomique et montaireouest-aricaine
UN United Nations
UNAIDS Joint United Nations Program on
HIV/AIDS
UNDP United Nations Development
Programme
UNDP-RBA United Nations Development
Programme Regional Bureau or
AricaUNESCO United Nations Educational,
Scientic and Cultural Organization
UNFPA United Nations Population Fund
UNICEF United Nations Childrens Fund
UNSD United Nations Statistics Division
US$ American Dollars
WFP World Food Program
WHO World Health Organization
WTO World Trade Organization
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Assessing Progress in Arica toard te Millennim Development Goals, 2011 1
SECTION I:
IntroductionIn September 2010, at the UN Millennium Develop-
ment Goals High-Level Summit in New York, the
international community rearmed its commit-
ment to the MDGs,1 acknowledged the progress
made so ar, and noted that the global achieve-
ment o the MDGs by 2015 is still possible throughstrengthened international partnerships, closer
collaboration between national authorities and
development partners, and clear-sighted political
will at the national level
This annual report is based, as in previous edi-
tions, on the database compiled by the United
Nations Statistical Division (UNSD)2 This is the o-
cial data repository or assessing progress towardthe MDGs The UNSD harmonizes data using the
same denitions and standards across national
datasets, allowing or comparability across coun-
tries An obvious drawback o this process is that
it considerably lengthens the time lag between
national data availability and international up-
dates For example, the most recent data used in
this report are rom the year 2009 As in previous
reports, specialized UN agencies such as the WorldHealth Organization (WHO), the United Nations
Childrens Fund (UNICEF), and the International
Fund or Agricultural Development (IFAD) have
served as important data sources or the report
1 A listing o the ocial MDGs, their targets, and indicators is
presented in Annex 1 o this report
2 All UNSD data used in this report are available at http://
mdgsunorg/unsd/mdg/Deaultaspx
In addition, this report utilizes 10 Arican national
MDG3 reports and supplements the analysis based
on UNSD data and other credible international
sources and observations, which document MDG-
relevant policy initiatives and lessons learned
The overall assessment o Aricas progress toward
the MDGs reveals that, while progress has generally
been positive, perormance has been mixed across
indicators and countries, and based on current
trends, the overall pace o progress is insucient
to achieve the MDGs by the target date o 2015
Indeed, the recent progress toward achievement
o the MDGs occurred against the backdrop oglobal ood, uel, and nancial crises Depending
on national capacities to design and implement
eective counter-cyclical measures, the crises in-
variably had adverse eects on a wide range o
MDG indicators Despite positive albeit modest
indications o global recovery, the crises are ar
rom over and have lagged negative eects on
MDG indicators Furthermore, the recovery in
the developed world remains ragile with manyEuropean economies, most recently in Greece,
experiencing scal consolidation Such setbacks
will invariably dampen Aricas growth prospects
by constraining access to ODA Food hikes have
to some extent continued since 2008, with price
levels above pre-crisis gures to the detriment o
3 Algeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Lesotho, Mozambique, Nigeria,
Sierra Leone, South Arica, Togo, and Uganda
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Assessing Progress in Arica toard te Millennim Development Goals, 20112
SECTION I: INTRODuCTION
lower-income groups who have become more
vulnerable in the ace o rapidly declining real
incomes Climate change poses yet another ormi-dable challenge to Aricas agricultural production,
ood security and livelihoods, as demonstrated by
the recent foods in Southern and West Arica,
and the drought in Eastern Arica
Arica will need more predictable and timely re-
sources to respond to the emerging development
challenges However, the prospects or increased
ocial development assistance (ODA) are not veryencouraging, especially when one takes into ac-
count the growing scal imbalances in developed
countries Indeed, development partners ODA
commitments still all ar short o the 07 percent
o GDP target, and there is little indication that the
situation will change signicantly over the short
to medium term
Notwithstanding the crises, Arican countries havein recent years generally been on a steady path
toward achievement o universal primary education
and the empowerment o women This has been
especially evident in the ratio o girls to boys in
primary education Signicant progress has also
been made in the ght against HIV and AIDS, using
methods such as awareness campaigns ocusing
on behavioral change and the promotion and use
o antiretroviral therapy (ART), which have curbedthe numbers o new inections and AIDS-related
deaths However, several targets related to HIV
and AIDS have still not been met, while some
countries have witnessed a retrogression Progress
on health indicators has generally been weak
While a ew countries have made commendable
advances, overall the continent lags behind other
global regions in terms o maternal and child
health Similarly, eorts to eradicate malaria and
tuberculosis have been met with limited success,
partly due to weak primary healthcare inrastruc-
ture, inadequate levels o medical personnel, anda lack o access to aordable drugs
Aggregate trends in Aricas progress toward the
MDGs mask high levels o spatial and group dis-
parities in perormance In particular, progress on
all indicators is skewed in avor o higher-income
groups and urban populations The inequities
in access to public services (such as education,
health, water and sanitation) result in the urthermarginalization o excluded groups This state o
aairs was acknowledged in the 2010 High Level
Meeting on the Millennium Development Goals
(MDGs) Outcome Document, which proposed tack-
ling inequalities as an important way to scale-up
progress or all segments o the population The
document proposes specic interventions, such as
social protection programs to create a level playing
eld or all, to ensure the availability, continuity,and access to public services, and to accelerate
progress toward the MDGs
Recognizing the importance o addressing vul-
nerability and inequality, Section III o this report
adopts a thematic ocus on social protection pro-
grams in Arica Social protection programs in a
selected number o Arican countries are analyzed
in terms o their eectiveness and overall contri-bution toward the MDGs This provides urther
lessons and opportunities or peer learning and
knowledge sharing on such programs, as they
relate to the MDGs
Productive employment remains a key to exit pov-
erty and address inequality Creating economic
growth is a crucial way to increase employment
opportunities in Arica and boost incomes The
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SECTION I: INTRODuCTION
employment-to-population gures remain some-
what static on the continent Besides enlarging
the vulnerable inormal sector, unemploymentcan lead to political instability, as witnessed in
the recent events in Tunisia and Egypt Arican
countries need to translate relatively strong eco-
nomic growth into meaningul employment crea-
tion to reduce absolute poverty and create social
inclusiveness Unlocking entrepreneurship across
regions and sectors and instituting well-designed
and supportive policies and actions is the road-
map to strong, shared, and sustainable growthArica can achieve such growth through structural
transormation guided by a developmental state,
underpinned by a vibrant private sector, produc-
tive entrepreneurship, and a diversied economy
Industrial policy can play an important role in
nurturing the entrepreneurial spirit and removing
obstacles to growth in high-potential sectors and
industries, thereby generating employment across
the continent Success in this area depends on anumber o structural actors, including addressing
the inrastructure gap (eg, improving access to a
reliable electricity supply, reliable road networks
and ICT connectivity, and better access to water
and sanitation) It is also contingent on promot-
ing a strong linkage between the agriculture and
industrial sectors
The evidence gathered in this report suggests that
scaling-up eorts to accelerate progress toward
achieving the MDGs on the continent is indeedpossible A crucial actor is that the much-needed
political will to support the MDGs did not wane
during or ater the nancial crisis Arican coun-
tries and development partners remain ully com-
mitted to the Goals However, one point o concern
is the extent to which governments can maintain
scal stability as they implement stimulus-related
packages to cushion households rom the impact
o the crises O equal concern is the implicationo the crises or concessional resource fows and
global trade In particular, scal consolidation in
developed countries will likely have adverse con-
sequences or both commodity exports and aid
fows to developing countries
This report is organized as ollows Ater this rst
introductory section, Section II assesses progress
on each o the eight Goals Section III takes asits thematic ocus social protection programs as
they relate to the MDGs in a selected number
o Arican countries Section IV concludes with
recommendations on the way orward
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SECTION II:
Tracking Progressthis alls ar short o the target o 29 percent by
2015 (Figure1) Furthermore, due to the cumula-
tive impacts o the ood, uel, and nancial crises
between 2006 and 2008, there has been a reversal
in the hard-won gains made in the past decade
toward reducing absolute poverty6 Notwithstand-ing this setback, rom 1998 to 2008, some Arican
countries such as Cameroon, Ethiopia, The Gambia,
Ghana, Senegal, and Morocco did manage to buck
the trend and make strides in poverty alleviation7
(Figure 2)
nancial crisis For instance, Pinkovskiy and Sala-i-Martin
(2010) argued that poverty is reducing aster than expected
through the distributive impact o rapid economic growth
in the region, which could ast-track the achievement o the
target beore 2015 However, Chen and Ravallion (2008)
concluded that Aricas poverty is not declining ast enough
to oset the regions high population growth rate Wodon
(2007), while appreciating the role o economic growth
in poverty reduction, noted that changes in inequality are
limiting the gains rom growth or the poor in several Aricancountries The World Bank and IMF (2010) also explained that
the initial conditions in Arica made it dicult or growth to
lead to a rapid reduction in poverty; that the pace o progress
is inversely related to initial conditions
6 The projection rom IFAD (2010) puts the proportion o the
population living below the poverty line in Arica (excluding
North Arica) at 525 percent in 2008
7 Many countries reports also indicated they have made
appreciable progress on poverty reduction (in contrast with
international statistics) For instance, ocial statistics rom
Algeria reported a substantial all in poverty rom 141 percent
in 1995 to 5 percent in 2008
GOAl 1: ErADICATE ExTrEME POVErTyAND huNGEr
Taget 1A: have, beteen 1990 and 2015, te
popotion o peope ose income is ess tan
uS$ 1254
a daIn recent years, extreme poverty has been alling
rapidly, even in low-income countries, despite their
growing populations Across developing countries
globally, the proportion o people living on less
than US$ 125 a day ell rom 42 percent o the
population in 1990 to 25 percent in 2005 This is
attributable to the rapid economic growth in most
developing countries and the signicant progress in
poverty reduction on the part o highly populatedcountries such as China, India, and Indonesia I this
trend continues, developing countries are likely to
reach the target o 21 percent o the population
living on less than US$ 125 a day by 2015
Over the past decade, Arica has contributed sig-
nicantly to global economic growth, however,
economic perormance has not translated into a
signicant reduction in poverty among its popu-lations In particular, the proportion o Aricans
(excluding those in North Arica) living on less
than US$ 125 a day marginally decreased rom 58
percent in 1990 to 51 percent in 20055 However,
4 The poverty rate is the proportion o the population living
on less than US$ 125 a day, measured at 2005 international
prices, adjusted or purchasing power parity (PPP)
5 It is important to acknowledge the controversy surrounding
the extent o poverty reduction in Arica prior to the global
An important challenge to monitoring progress
on poverty reduction in Arica is the lack o data
originating rom comprehensive, quality surveys
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Fige 1: Te decining povet tend in Aica (ecding Not Aica) compaed totended taget o 2015 (%)
Source: Compiled rom http://iresearchworldbankorg/PovcalNet/povDuplichtml
Poverty headcount in Africa (excluding North Africa) ($1.25)
1990 1996 2002 2005 2015
MDG trend
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
carried out at regular intervals Even where good-quality surveys are available, delays in reporting
the results continue to hamper the monitoring
o poverty in the continent Gaps are particularly
acute in Arica (excluding North Arica), where close
to hal the countries lack sucient data to make
comparisons over time To ensure evidence-based
decision-making on the continent, governments,
the private sector, and development partners
should pay greater attention to the conduct ohousehold surveys through better resource al-
location and capacity development The need to
bridge the discrepancies between national and
international statistics should also be given serious
consideration
Poverty gap remains high in Arica
The poverty gap measures the shortall in the
incomes o people living below the poverty line
While the international poverty line o US$ 125 aday is set at a level typical o very poor countries,
many people subsist on even less than that amount
Economic growth and improvements in the distri-
bution o income or consumption can reduce the
depth o poverty In North Arica, the poverty gap
ratio remained static at 1 percent between 1990
and 2005, whilst in the rest o Arica the ratio
posted an improvement rom 26 to 21 percent
during the same period The subregional varia-tions in the poverty gap are high (Figure 3) These
data indicate the percentage o people living ar
below the threshold o US$ 125 a day, and hence
the magnitude o vulnerable groups that require
policy interventions Eorts to spur growth and
productivity in sectors where the poor are most
active (eg agriculture and inormal businesses)
will help to improve this ratio
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Fige 2: Pecentage cange in popation iving beo te povet tesod(uS$ 125 a da) beteen 1998 and 2008
Source: Compiled rom IFAD (2010, pp 245252)
Fige 3: Povet gap atio b Aican sbegion, 2008 (%)
Source: Compiled rom IFAD (2010)
-80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20
Zambia
Kenya
Cte dIvoire
Burundi
Nigeria
Mozambique
Lesotho
Malawi
Uganda
Madagascar
Burkina Faso
Egypt
Swaziland
Ghana
Ethiopia
Cameroon
Senegal
Gambia
Morocco
Southern Africa West Africa Central Africa East Africa North Africa
0
5
10
15
20
25
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SECTION II: TRACkING PROGRESS
Proportion o the working poor remains
a challenge
The working poor are dened as those whoare employed but live in households where indi-
vidual members subsist on less than US$ 125 a
day Most o these workers lack the social protec-
tion and saety-nets that guard against times o
low economic demand Oten they are unable to
generate sucient savings to oset hard times
Since vulnerable employment tends to be charac-
terized by low-productivity work, and the global
nancial crisis has decreased labor productivity,8
working poverty is likely to have increased over
recent years and this trend is projected to continue
(UN, 2010) Data show that the proportion o the
Arican working population (excluding those in
North Arica) earning less than US$ 125 a day
in 1998 was 67 percent, which improved to 58
percent in 2008, but this is projected to slip back
to 64 percent in 2009 This stands in contrast to
ar more substantial improvement in most otherglobal regions over the same timerame (eg,
rom about 67 percent to 11 percent in East Asia
and rom about 22 percent to 14 percent in North
Arica) (ILO, 2010b)
The ruralurban divide in poverty incidence
persists
Evidence rom the Rural Poverty Report 2011
(IFAD, 2010) shows that rural poverty is still veryhigh in Arica (excluding North Arica) While it
8 Labor productivity declined in almost all the regions o the
world during the recent nancial crisis The exceptions were
in East Asia, South Asia, and North Arica, which weathered
the crisis rather well in comparison with other regions Labor
productivity was particularly hard-hit in Latin America and the
Caribbean, Central and South-Eastern Europe (non-EU) and
the CIS region, the Middle East, and Arica (excluding North
Arica) where it went into negative territory between 2007
and 2009 (ILO, 2011)
marginally declined rom 649 percent in 1998
to 616 percent in 2008, this is almost double
the average o 342 percent or all developingcountries (IFAD, 2010) Although Arica (excluding
North Arica) reduced rural poverty by 51 percent
between 1998 and 2008, developing countries
in other global regions ared much better Latin
America and the Caribbean decreased their levels
o rural poverty by 688 percent, South East Asia
by 514 percent, and the Middle East and North
Arica by 455 percent
These regions were able to deal with the root
causes o rural poverty such as lack o assets,
limited economic opportunities (including weak
access to markets and poor harvests), and poor
education, as well as disadvantages rooted in
social and political inequalities Rural develop-
ment, green growth, and good health systems
in other developing regions contributed to rapid
exits out o rural poverty Addressing this issue inArica is central to reducing spatial inequality It
will require governments to acilitate individual
and collective access to physical assets such as
land, houses, credit and occupational inputs,
while at the same time strengthening the rural
populations capabilities (eg, through better
education, access to inormation, and greater
participation in dialogue and decision-making)
This should be complemented by the creationo local economic opportunities (especially non-
arm); increasing rural peoples capacity to better
manage the risks they ace; and investments in
rural inrastructure such as energy, water and
sanitation, and transportation It also calls or
better governance at both national and local
levels
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The global fnancial crisis and its impact on
poverty reduction
In spite o the promising economic growth pro-
jection or the continent, the atermath o the
global nancial crisis is likely to have a signi-
cant impact on progress toward MDG 1, both
up to 2015 and beyond Although much o the
rest o the world is largely on track to meet the
target o halving its income poverty rate, thispresents a major challenge or Arica (excluding
North Arica) Beore the crisis, the region was
projected to reach a poverty rate o 359 percent
by 2015, but this has now been revised to 38
percent The implication is that an additional 20
million people will be let in poverty by 2015
However, i the low-growth scenario comes to
pass,9 this number would more than double to
55 million over the same period10 (Figure4)
Indeed, revised estimates rom the World Bank
suggest that the crisis let an additional 50 mil-
lion people in extreme poverty in 2009 and a
urther 14 million in 2010 Those hardest hit
were principally living in Arica (excluding North
Arica) and in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia
9 The low-growth scenario assumes little or no growth or
about ve years, when it begins to slowly recover (World Bank
and IMF, 2010)
10 Ibid
Fige 4: Poected impact o te economic cisis on povet edction in Aica(ecding Not Aica), 20052020
Source: Compiled rom World Bank and IMF (2010)
200
300
400
500
Pre-crisis
1990
Million people
2005 2015 2020
Post-crisis Low-growth
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Taget 1B: Acieve and podctive
empoment and decent ok o a, incdingomen and ong peope
Indicator 1.4: Growth rate o GDP per person
employed
An important indicator or measuring changes
in the quality o employment is labor produc-
tivity11 Growth in labor productivity is essential
or improving living standards and sustaining
poverty reduction Like many other developingregions, output per worker in Arica, which has
been rising since 2002, witnessed a substantial
decline in 2009 due to the global economic crisis
(Figure 5) While the growth o labor produc-
tivity remained positive in North Arica, it was
curtailed dropping rom 29 percent in 2007 to
16 percent in 2009 There was a much sharper
11 Labor productivity is dened as output per unit o labor
decline in other subregions o Arica, rom 35
percent to -12 percent during the same periodThe slowdown in the rate o capital accumulation
and weak growth in total actor productivity12
could have accounted or the sharp all in labor
productivity Generally, output per worker is very
low in Arica (excluding North Arica), relative to
other global regions For instance, in 2009 it was
estimated to be US$ 5,141 or Arica (excluding
North Arica), compared to US$ 16,236 (North
Arica), US$ 12,383 (East Asia), US$ 22,352 (LatinAmerica and the Caribbean), and US$ 70,946
(developed economies and European Union)
(ILO, 2011)
12 Productivity gains come rom a more ecient use o
capital and labor, as well as rom technological progress
Fige 5: Got o abo podctivit in Aica and ote deveoping egions, 20002009
Source: Compiled rom ILO (2010c)
Africa Asia Latin America and the Caribbean
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20082000 2009
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Fige 6: Pecentage cange in GDP pe capita, 19902009
Source: Compiled rom http://hdrstatsundporg/r/indicateurs/62006html
Note: There were no data or Seychelles and Somalia, while Equatorial Guinea data were excluded because o its impact on the
graph Data rom Eritrea and Libya started rom 2000, while So Tom and Prncipe data started rom 2005
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
SudanMozambique
Cape VerdeMauritius
TunisiaBotswana
AngolaEgypt
MaliEthiopiaMoroccoLesotho
GhanaBurkina Faso
ChadNamibiaUganda
NigeriaTanzaniaRwanda
SwazilandMalawiBeninLibya
AlgeriaDjiboutiGuinea
So Tom and PrncipeMauritania
South AfricaSenegalGambiaCongo
Sierra LeoneZambiaKenya
CameroonNigerTogo
ComorosGabon
Madagascar
EritreaCAR
Cte dIvoireGuinea Bissau
BurundiLiberia
ZimbabweDRC
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Subregional averages mask wide variations across
Arican countries on productivity, as measured by
GDP per capita For countries where comparabledata are available between 1990 and 2009, the
average GDP growth per capita was 558 percent
in Arica Thirty-seven countries recorded positive
growth while it was negative in 14 countries dur-
ing the same ten-year period Two oil-producing
countries (Equatorial Guinea and The Sudan) were
the highest-perorming countries, ollowed by
Mozambique, Cape Verde, Mauritius, and Tunisia
The use o revenues rom oshore oil extraction or the
transormation o inrastructure in Equatorial Guinea
accounts or the massive rise in productivity in that
country, while the ecient use o capital, labor, and
technological advances explains better perormance
in other countries The least-perorming countries in
terms o GDP growth per capita over 19902009
were DRC, Zimbabwe, Liberia, Burundi, and Cte
dIvoire (Figure 6) Most countries lagging behind onproductivity are postconfict countries Conficts oten
lead to the total destruction o inrastructure, which
undermines the ecient use o actors o production
(including labor and capital) Resources that could be
used or capital accumulation are instead devoted
to humanitarian support and social cohesion eorts
The resurgence o conficts in some countries and
the spread o political instability in North Arica could
urther aect overall productivity on the continent
Indicator 1.5: Employment-to-population ratio
Employment generation
The employment-to-population ratio,13 which pro-
vides a snapshot o the quantity o employment
13 Employment-to-population ratio is dened as the propor-
tion o a countrys working-age population, aged 15 years
and older, who are in employment
being generated in an economy, grew by about 05
percent between 1991 and 2008 or the continent
as a whole During this period, North Arica re-corded the largest improvement, while West Arica
regressed slightly Relative to all the subregions,
East Arica has the highest ratio o population in
employment, while North Arica has the lowest
(Figure 7) This could be attributed to the low par-
ticipation o women and youth in the workorce
in North Arica and to a high unemployment rate
there14 This potent mix o destabilizing actors
was no doubt a contributory actor behind thesocial and political instability recently witnessed
in the subregion
Turning to West Arica, the large share o capital-
intensive extractive industries in national output
and the prevalence o conficts in many member
countries have contributed to the decline in the
employment-to-population ratio in the subregion
By contrast, East Aricas relative social stabilityand appreciable economic diversication played
a positive part in its sustained good perormance
Unemployment rates are generally higher in North
Arica than in the other subregions, although it
achieved a higher rate o progress over the time
span 19912008 In North Arica, unemployment
declined rom about 14 percent in 2000 to 95
percent in 2008 beore rising marginally to 98percent in 2009, due to the global economic cri-
sis The decline was subdued in the rest o the
continent, alling rom about 90 percent in 1990
to 80 percent in 2007, beore rising by just 02
percent in 2009 (ILO, 2011)
14 See ILO (2010a) or more on the employment situation in
North Arica
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Fige 7: Empoment-to-popation atio b Aican sbegion, 1991 and 2008 (%)
Source: Compiled rom UNSD data (updated in June 2010)
Note: No data or Djibouti, Mauritania, So Tom and Prncipe, and Seychelles
1991
North Africa West Africa Central Africa East Africa Southern Africa
2008
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Employment-to-population ratios at the countrylevel exhibit substantial variations O the 49
countries or which comparable data are avail-
able, 25 countries made progress, with Algeria,
Ethiopia, Lesotho, and Zambia recording more
than a 5 percent improvement Only Cameroon
was stagnant during the period, while 23 coun-
tries regressed Namibia, Rwanda, Swaziland,
Tanzania, and Zimbabwe registered a decline o
more than 5 percent between 1991 and 2008(Figure 8) To remedy the situation, eorts should
be made to diversiy the economy away rom
traditional commodities into the service sector
Countries must also build the capacity to absorb
both skilled and unskilled labor and to better align
educational curricula to labor market realities in
order to enhance the employment opportunities
o young graduates
Tackling youth employmentYoung people are the oundation or building
solid economies and vibrant societies or today
and tomorrow; however, young people have oten
been excluded rom social and productive activities
For instance, employment among youths (1525
years old) globally is on the decline and the all
was steeper during the economic crisis and its
atermath, between 2007 and 2009 Youth un-
employment rose rom 119 percent in 2007 to130 percent in 2009 and was estimated at 131
percent in 2010 (ILO, 2010a) Youth unemploy-
ment is a major issue in Arica, as it has the largest
share o youths to total population worldwide, in
addition to a very high poverty incidence and low
economic diversication
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Fige 8: Pecentage cange in empoment-to-popation atio o seected Aicanconties, 19912008
Source: Compiled rom UNSD data (updated in June 2010)
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
AlgeriaEthiopiaLesothoZambia
LibyaMadagascar
ChadSouth Africa
SudanBenin
Equatorial GuineaSierra Leone
UgandaEgypt
SomaliaTunisia
Guinea-BissauNiger
MalawiMorocco
Burkina FasoLiberiaGabon
CameroonAngolaEritreaKenya
BurundiComoros
CARGuinea
SenegalCongo Republic
BotswanaGambia
DRCNigeria
Cape VerdeTogo
MozambiqueMauritius
Cte dIvoireMali
GhanaNamibia
SwazilandRwanda
ZimbabweTanzania
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Youth unemployment in Arica has become a
development concern in recent times and is more
precarious in North Arica15 More than 20 percent
o the youth labor orce in North Arica in 2008
was unable to nd jobs Indeed, only 407 percent
o male youths and 159 percent o emale youths
in North Arica were in employment in 2008 This
explains why youth unemployment worsened by32 percentage points between 1998 and 2008 in
North Arica, compared to 17 percentage points
or the rest o the continent (ILO, 2010a) The
dierence in the rate could refect the lack o
social protection, which orces the youths into
low-productivity employment, especially in the
15 Youth unemployment has become a recurring issue in
North Arica and the Middle East, which have the worst rates
o youth unemployment in the world (ILO, 2010c)
inormal sector16 These developments are seen to
have contributed to the increasing wave o protests
in North Arica and the Middle East in recent times
Investing in the youth is an important strategy to
transorm the demographic challenge into eco-
nomic opportunities, social inclusion, and poverty
reduction The need or countries to develop anational action plan or youth employment is more
relevant than ever This action plan should examine
16 Although the inormal sector in Arica provides a good
opportunity to absorb the unemployed youths, yet substantial
challenges still inhibit access to this sector These include lack
o resources to enter the upper-tier inormal sector; barri-
ers in terms o acquiring technical or entrepreneurial skills,
non-conducive operating environments, such as a lack o in-
rastructure (eg, electricity); and wage rigidity in the inormal
wage employment (Chaudhuri and Mukhopadhyay, 2010)
Bo 1: Empoment poic in AgeiaUnemployment has been a serious long-term development challenge in Algeria. Indeed, total and
youth unemployment rates were as high as 30 percent in 2000 and 48 percent in 2001 respectively.To reduce unemployment and tackle poverty in the country, the government decided to implement
a rigorous employment policy. Subsidies were granted to frms as incentives to hire the unemployed,
and a public works program was established or unskilled people. Firms were given the opportunity
to hire the unemployed at no cost or one year, with the government paying the salaries or skilled
youth. Subsidies and fnancing were provided to micro enterprise projects to take on skilled youth
with relevant qualifcations. Tax incentive measures were also provided to employers who were able
to create and saeguard jobs.
These eorts improved perormance in terms o matching labor supply (job seekers) with labor demand
(vacancies). As a result, the annual number o job matching through the National Employment Agency
(ANEM) over the period 20052009 increased by 167 percent. Moreover, emale employment during this
period rose rom 1.2 million to almost 1.5 million; an increase o about 20 percent. Altogether, between
2004 and 2009, Algerias government was able to create 1.3 million new jobs. This development led to a
reduction in the total unemployment rate rom 30 percent in 2000 to 15.3 percent in 2005, alling urther to
10.2 percent in 2009. In particular, youth unemployment ell rom 48 percent in 2001 to 31 percent in 2005.
The governments employment policy has surely contributed to the signifcant reduction o the poverty
rate in the country, which decreased rom 14.1 percent in 1995 to 5 percent in 2008, as measured by
the national poverty line.
Sources: Kpodar (2007) and Algeria MDG Report (2010).
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SECTION II: TRACkING PROGRESS
and address the key barriers to youth employment
at local and national levels and be ready to scale
up interventions that are proving to be innovativein the promotion o youth participation and private
sector involvement Some o the issues requiring
urgent attention in many Arican countries include
addressing technical and nontechnical (numeracy
and literacy) skill mismatches, tackling slow growth
job barriers, dealing with discrimination in the
labor market, and improving access to start-up
capital, among others
Indicator 1.6: Proportion o employed people
living on less than US$ 1.25 (PPP) per day
This is an indicator or measuring extreme poverty
among the working population Globally, the
number o working poor (living on less than US$
125 a day) declined rom 8751 million in 1999
to 6319 million in 2009 In contrast to the global
trend, this indicator rose in Arica rom 158 million
to 185 million during the same period (Table 1)The rigidity o nominal wages accompanied by a
rising cost o living relative to many other regions
o the world contributed to this trend
Although the number o the working poor in Arica
is on the increase, the ratio o the working poor
to the total workorce has been on a declining
trend A marginal reversal was however recorded in
2009 due to the global economic crisis, which ledto the loss o many ormal jobs and an expansion
o vulnerable employment Relative to the global
average o 207 percent in 2009, the share o the
working poor in Arica (excluding North Arica)
was 589 percent A similar trend was observed or
the poverty threshold o US$ 20 per day (Table 1)
Tabe 1: Indicatos o te oking poo in Aica, 19992009
North Africa Africa, excluding North Africa
Year Working poor
(million)
% of total
employment
Working poor
(million)
% of total
employment
Working people living on less than US$ 1.25 per day
1999 10.5 21.4 147.5 66.9
2003 11.1 20.2 156.2 63.0
2008 10.5 16.2 170.2 58.5
2009 10.7 16.1 174.6 58.5
Working people living on less than US$ 2.0 per day
1999 20.7 42.2 189.6 86.1
2003 21.5 39.1 209.3 84.4
2008 20.6 31.7 236.7 81.4
2009 20.7 31.2 243.2 81.5
Source: Compiled rom ILO (2011)
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in 2009, compared to 85 million in South Asia
(ILO, 2011) Vulnerable employment in Arica
(excluding North Arica) in 2009 peaked at 758percent o the labor orce, which is considerably
higher than the global average o 501 percent
in the same year
Precarious jobs are common where the inormal
economy is prevalent Targeted measures should
be taken by governments to enhance the pro-
ductivity and conditions o the service sector
Such measures could include improving accessto product markets (eg promoting subcontract-
ing between ormal and inormal operators),
encouraging venture capital, and improving the
regulatory ramework18
Another characteristic o vulnerable employment
in Arica is the emerging trend o eminization
About six out o ten emale workers in North
Arica is engaged in vulnerable employment, butthis ratio rises to eight out o ten emale workers
in the rest o Arica The gender gap between
the vulnerable employment o women compared
to men in 2009 amounted to 218 and 145 per-
centage points or North Arica and the rest o
Arica respectively (Table 2) It is clear that more
eorts are required to tackle discrimination against
women in ormal employment, both in the private
and public sectors
18 See Obadan et al (1999) or detailed strategies to address
the challenges o precarious employment and inormal sector
Reducing the proportion o the working poor in
Arica will require a comprehensive strategy to
conront the casualization o labor, by promotingwage indexation and encouraging the integra-
tion o the inormal sector into the mainstream
economy across Arican countries
Indicator 1.7: Proportion o own-account
and contributing amily workers in total
employment
Limited progress has been achieved in reducing
the proportion o vulnerable employment17
inArica Globally, the number o vulnerable work-
ers rose rom 138 billion in 1999 to 153 billion
in 2009 an increase o about 110 percent, as
opposed to around 30 percent in Arica The
preponderance o the inormal sector in Arica
(excluding North Arica) accounts or this regional
trend
Although the actual number o such workers ison the increase, the ratio o vulnerable employ-
ment to total employment in Arica is on the
decline Between 1998 and 2008 it ell rom
437 percent to 402 percent in North Arica, and
rom 805 percent to 753 percent in the other
subregions The trend was however reversed in
2009 (Table 2) due to the global nancial crisis
In hard times, people use the inormal sector as a
coping strategy in response to ormal sector jobdisplacements The number o people engaged
in vulnerable employment rose by 74 million
17 Vulnerable employment is the sum o own-account
workers and unpaid amily workers It provides an insight into
the widespread use o inormal work arrangements, where
workers lack adequate social protection and social dialogue
mechanisms Such arrangements are oten associated with
low pay and dicult working conditions (ILO, 2011) Work
vulnerability is an important indicator or measuring the
overall employment quality
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Tabe 2: Sae o vneabe empoment to tota empoment in Aica, 19982009
North Africa Africa, excluding North Africa
Total Male Female Total Male Female
1998 43.7 40.1 55.4 80.5 75.5 87.3
1999 42.1 38.1 52.9 79.9 74.5 87.1
2000 42.4 38.2 56.0 79.5 74.0 86.9
2005 42.6 37.0 59.7 77.1 70.1 86.2
2006 41.1 35.4 58.3 76.6 69.6 85.6
2007 41.2 35.1 69.3 76.0 69.2 84.9
2008 40.2 34.1 58.2 75.3 68.5 84.0
2009 40.4 34.9 56.7 75.8 69.5 84.0
Source: Compiled rom ILO (2011)
Target 1C: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the
proportion o people who suer rom hunger
Progress on this indicator in Arica has been
quite sluggish since the 1990s The proportion opeople in Arica (excluding North Arica) suering
rom hunger declined slightly rom 253 percent
in the Global Hunger Index (GHI) o 1990 to 217
percent in 2010 This alls ar short o the progress
achieved in Southeast Asia (25 percent) and in
the Middle East and North Arica (33 percent)
over the same timerame19 One major actor was
the price o staple oods, which remained high
in 2009, ater the ood crisis o 2008
The trend o rising global ood prices has had a
major impact on Arica Evidence rom FAOs 2010
19 See IFPRI (2010), Global Hunger Index (GHI) The GHI is
a multidimensional statistical tool used to measure progress
and ailures in the global ght against hunger It combines
three equally weighted indicators: 1) the proportion o the
undernourished as a percentage o the population; 2) the
prevalence o underweight children under the age o ve; and
3) the mortality rate o children under the age o ve
October Food Price Index shows that ood prices
in Arica rose by 34 points, 16 points below the
peak June 2008 level (FAO, 2010) This makes the
ood security situation in low-income ood-decitcountries (LIFDCs) in Arica more vulnerable The
recent high price o bread in countries like Kenya,
Zimbabwe, and Mozambique also gives cause
or concern Although maize prices are stable in
Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Niger, and
Tanzania due to good harvests, they are rising in
Somalia due to drought and in Uganda, owing to
high import demand
Coupled with the rising ood prices, the incomes
o poor households ell due to high unemploy-
ment ollowing the economic downturn All these
actors contributed to a considerable reduction in
the eective purchasing power o poor consumers,
who spend a substantial share o their income on
basic oodstus
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Fige 9: hnge inde o Aica, 1990 and 2010
Note: Data not available or So Tom and Prncipe, Seychelles, Somalia, and Namibia
Source: Compiled rom IFPRI (2010)
DRC
BurundiEritrea
ChadEthiopia
Sierra LeoneComoros
MadagascarCAR
AngolaNiger
ZambiaLiberia
Mozambique
DjiboutiRwanda
Guinea-BissauTogo
Burkina FasoZimbabwe
SudanTanzania
KenyaMali
GambiaMalawiNigeria
CameroonGuineaBenin
SenegalCongo Republic
UgandaCte dIvoire
NamibiaMauritaniaBotswana
LesothoSwaziland
Ghana
South AfricaMauritius
GabonMoroccoTunisia
LibyaEgypt
Algeria
0 10 20 30 40 50
2010 (2003-08)
1990 (1988-92)
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Although the continent is too ar o-track to
achieve the hunger reduction target, there are
wide variations in the perormance o variouscountries Some have made giant strides (Figure
9); Ghana and Tunisia are the only countries to
have already achieved this target Ghana, or
instance, was able to reduce hunger by 57 per-
cent between 1990 and 2008 owing to avora-
ble rainall patterns, stable good governance,
sound macroeconomic policies, and substantial
investments in agriculture Both Malawi and
Mauritania reduced hunger by about 40 percentduring the same period In North Arica, Mo-
rocco had a Global Hunger Index score o 58
in 2010, while others (Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and
Algeria) scored less than 5 The alarming level
o hunger in other countries results rom many
actors, including armed confict (eg DRC and
Burundi), natural disasters (eg Chad, Eritrea,
Ethiopia, and Kenya), weak governance, weak
social protection systems (eg The Gambia)and the breakdown o local institutions (eg
Zimbabwe)
Improving the quantity and quality o domestic
investment in agriculture and agricultural pro-
ductivity is central to addressing the challenge o
hunger and ood security in Arica, yet the sector
has not been receiving the attention it deserves
over the past two decades The proportion o totalODA allocated to agriculture has been alling since
the late 1980s it declined rom about 15 percent
in 1990 to about 5 percent in 200820 Between
2005 and 2008, or instance, the share o ODA
allocated to agriculture in countries acing ood
crises was disproportionately low It was less than
2 percent in Chad, Congo Republic, DRC, Liberia,
20 See ONE (2010, p125)
Somalia, and The Sudan; and between 2 and 5
percent in Angola, Burundi, CAR, Eritrea, Guinea,
Sierra Leone, Uganda, and Zimbabwe This allsshort o the average o about 6 percent or all
Least Developed Countries (LDCs) On the other
hand, countries like Cte dIvoire, Ethiopia, and
Kenya received between 5 and 8 percent during
the period (FAO and WFP, 2010)
Another actor compounding the problem is the
mismatch between humanitarian support and aid
to agriculture being delivered to Arica A largeproportion o unding or ood security is still de-
livered through ood aid, in both emergency and
non-emergency situations In 2008, or instance,
the G-8 provided US$ 30 billion in ood aid, ar
above the US$ 18 billion provided or agriculture21
The situation in countries with protracted crises is
more serious still Between 2000 and 2008, more
than 60 percent o total ODA was spent on hu-
manitarian support in Somalia and The Sudan andmore than 20 percent in Angola, Burundi, Chad,
Congo, DRC, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Zimbabwe (FAO
and WFP, 2010, p13)
21 Ibid, p 126
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Although international assistance to Arica or
meeting the hunger target has been positive in
recent times,22
the region still needs substantialtechnical and nancial support to ensure ood se-
curity Food aid is necessary to meet urgent ood
and nutritional needs (especially in prolonged
crisis countries), but it should not be provided
at the expense o long-term agricultural invest-
ment that will enable communities to become
sel-sucient and ood secure Food aid is a
short-term solution and will not assist countries
to achieve Target 1C in the long run This is-sue is best addressed through targeted national
programs aimed at providing basic nutrition to
pregnant women rom poor households and
school meals tied to local productive capacity
(eg using locally produced ood)23
Based on the need to promote long-term ag-
ricultural investment in the region, the Arican
22 For instance, the G-8 communiqus rom 2005 to 2007
recognized the importance o supporting increased agricul-
tural productivity in Arica Between 2008 and 2009 there
was a collective commitment to reverse the declining trend o
ODA to agriculture While the 2008 Hokkaido Toyako Summit
committed US$ 100 billion to address the global ood crisis
and support the agricultural sector, the 2009 LAquila Summit
committed to provide US$ 200 billion over three years (since
revised to US$ 220 billion) through the Aquila Food Secu-
rity Initiative This initiative committed to support countries
vetted agricultural plans through predictable, long-term and
well-coordinated unding as well as country-led processes, in-cluding the Comprehensive Arican Agriculture Development
Program (CAADP) The Global Agricultural and Food Security
Program (GAFSP), a multilateral ood security trust und man-
aged by the World Bank, was established during the 2009
Pittsburgh G-20 meeting to complement the Aquila initiative
(see UNDP, 2011)
23 The Home-Grown School Feeding Program, unded by the
World Food Program and DFID-UK to the tune o US$ 25 mil-
lion, is such a scheme It comes under Pillar 3 o CAADP and
is designed to link school eeding to agricultural development
through the purchase and use o locally and domestically
produced ood
Union is spearheading the Comprehensive Arica
Agriculture Development Program (CAADP) This
program pays special attention to enhanced er-tilizer coverage, the use o improved seedlings,
and expanded irrigation programs to substantially
reduce malnutrition in Arica Furthermore, the
joint program on regional value chains or agricul-
tural products will contribute to ood security and
improvements in malnutrition (ECA, 2007) These
initiatives must be supported and expanded by
Arican governments and development partners
in order to achieve rapid agricultural productivityin Arica
Indicator 1.8: Prevalence o underweight
children under fve years o age
Progress on reducing the proportion o children
under ve who are underweight has also been
sluggish and it is unlikely that this target will
be met by 2015 O the 36 countries or which
complete data were available, 28 countries hadreduced the prevalence o underweight chil-
dren, albeit at a slow rate, whilst eight countries
showed a regression Only Algeria had reached
the target as o 2009, while countries like Dji-
bouti, Morocco, and Zimbabwe are now worse
o than they were in 1990 (Table 3) Zimbabwe,
which was once regarded as the breadbasket
o Arica, has been particularly hard-hit on this
indicator, owing to the economic collapse thecountry is grappling with
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Tabe 3: Pevaence o ndeeigt ciden nde fve eas od o seected Aicanconties (19901999 and 20002009) (%)
Ten best-performing countries Ten worst-performing countries
Countries % Change in underweight
children
Countries % Change in underweight
children
Algeria -67.26 Nigeria -2.20
Egypt -37.04 Guinea -1.89
Malawi -36.48 Chad -1.17
Senegal -33.79 Madagascar 3.66
The Gambia -31.90 Burkina Faso 10.98
Ghana -29.56 Comoros 12.11
Botswana -29.14 Lesotho 18.57
Mali -26.96 Zimbabwe 21.74
Rwanda -25.93 Morocco 22.22
Angola -25.68 Djibouti 85.00
Source: Compiled rom WHO (2010b)
Child malnutrition tends to perpetuate a cycle o
regression in other MDGs, especially Goals 4 and
5 For instance, child malnutrition contributes to
more than one-third o the disease burden o
under-ves, while during pregnancy it results in
more than 20 percent o maternal mortalities24
Evidence rom the 2010 GHI reveals that when
poorly nourished girls grow up, they tend to givebirth to underweight babies Indeed, this is one
o the causes or slow progress in the reduction
o child mortality
A comprehensive approach is needed to address
early childhood malnutrition Such interventions
should ocus on improved maternal nutrition
24 See Go et al (2010)
during pregnancy, promotion o lactation and
exclusive breast-eeding, as well as the provision o
essential micronutrients and comprehensive immu-
nization packages targeted at inants aged 024
months Governments and other stakeholders
should also proactively address the undamental
causes o malnutrition, including ood insecurity,
inequitable access to basic health services, unhy-gienic eeding practices, and inadequate nutrition
and education programs To make good progress,
what is needed is a comprehensive development
program where ood security, nutrition, and eq-
uitable access to basic health services are ully
integrated
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Fige 10: Popotion o ndenoised popation in Aica (ecding Not Aica)compaed to ote deveoping conties, 19902010
Source: Compiled rom FAO and WFP (2010)
Note: Figures or 2009 and 2010 are projections rom FAO Statistics 2010
% of population undernourished in Africa (excluding North Africa)
% of population undernourished in developing countries
1990-92 1995-97 2000-02 2005-07 2008 2009 2010
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Indicator 1.9: The proportion o population
below the minimum level o dietary energyconsumption
The continuous reduction in the number o un-
dernourished people that had been achieved in
Arica since 1990 wa