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1
Assessing Potential Magnitudes
of Injection-Induced Seismicity
Mark D. Zoback
Benjamin M. Page Professor of Geophysics
Stanford University
Co-Director, Stanford Center for Induced
and Triggered Seismicity
Schatzalp Conference, Davos
March 15-17, 2017
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Topics
1. The Stress Field Matters - Identification (and Avoidance) of Potentially Active Faults Especially Those That May Extend intoCrystalline Basement
Rall Walsh and M. Zoback, Geology (2016)
Fault Slip Potential (FSP) Software,
released to the public March 6, 2017
J-E Lund Snee and M. Zoback, GRL (2016)
2. The Rocks Matter –Viscoplasticity and the Velocity Strengthening Frictional Behavior of Some Sedimentary Rocks Can Limit the Extent of Seismic Rupture
Hiroki Sone, Arjun Kohli, Xiaodong Ma
Fatemeh Rassouli, Shaochuan Xu
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Strong Correlation Between Seismicity and SWD
(DP < 2 MPa see Poster P2-16)
Langenbruch and Zoback, 2016
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5
What is the Probability That a Modest* ΔPP Might Make a Known Pre-Existing Fault Slip (Prior to Injection)?
*Modest Means ΔPP Small With Respect to Ambient Stresses
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Alt and Zoback (BSSA, 2017)
• Detailed Mapping of Stress
Orientation and Relative
Magnitudes
• Wellbore Observations
• Earthquake FM
Inversions
• Consistent SHmax Dir.
• Slowly Varying Relative
Stress Magnitudes
• Utilize Information About
Pre-Existing Faults (Darold
and Holland, 2015)
• Can We Determine Which
Faults are Potentially
Problematic?
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Walsh and Zoback, Geology, 2016
But There is Uncertainty in Every ParameterQRA - Prague Area Parameter Distributions
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Fault Slip Probability (2 MPa Max Pressure Change)
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Identification of Faults That are Not Likely to be
Problematic is Important Too!
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• Most Earthquakes are NOT
Associated with Known
Faults
• You Need to Know Your
Faults!
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All Relatively Large Recent Earthquakes in OK
Occurred on “Predictable” Faults
Langenbruch and Zoback, 2016
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Free, Online Software Released March 6, 2017
QRA to Assess Fault Slip Potential
Injection Wells and Faults Geomechanical Analysis
Hydrology Calculate Fault Slip Potential
Screening Tool for Identification of Potentially
Problematic Faults Associated with
Wastewater Injection (Usually Small DP)
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New Stress Map of Texas and Oklahoma - Poster P2-02
13
Lund Snee & Zoback (2016, GRL)
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Properties of Sedimentary Rocks that Limit
The Magnitude of Triggered Earthquakes
1. Viscoplastic Stress Relaxation (Relatively Isotropic Stress State)
Clay Rich Rocks - Sone and Zoback (2013a,b; 2014)
Carbonate Rich Rocks - Rassouli and Zoback (in preparation)
2. Velocity Strengthening (Fault Slip via Stable Sliding)
Clay Rich Rocks - Kohli and Zoback (2013)
Carbonate Rich Rocks – Kohli and Zoback (in prep)
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Sample Compositions
Kohli and Zoback, 2013
Clay-rich
Depth: 2615 m
Siliceous
Depth: 2616 m
Calcareous
Depth: 2609 m
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Variations in Clay Content Affects Creep
Creep Strain Stress Relaxation
39%clay
25% 22% clay33%
5% clay
Sone and Zoback, 2013
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Depth
SV ~ SHmaxShmin
Stress
Stress Relaxation in Viscoplastic Formations
Normal Faulting or
Stress States (S3 = Shmin)
Shale
Sand
Sand
Shale
StressD
ep
th
Shmin
Shmin Shmin Shmin SV ~ SHmax
Sii
Sij
μ = 0.6
Elastic, Brittle
Viscoplastic
S
ij
Sii
μ = 0.6
Shmin Shmin Shmin SV
SV
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Shmin/SV Prediction
Normal Faulting
Sv > SHmax > Shmin
Bn: Barnett
Hv: Haynesville
Ef: Eagle Ford
FSJ: Fort St. John
Lp: Lodgepole
MB: Middle Bakken
LB: Lower Bakken
ThF: Three Forks
White circles: vertical
White triangles:
horizontal
Xu and Zoback, in prep
s(t)= e
0
1
B(1-n)t -n
S
1- S
3= e
0
E
1-nt -n
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Ma and Zoback (in review)
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Eagleford sample ~50% Carbonate
Creep and Stress Relaxation in Carbonate Rich Rocks
Rassouli and Zoback, in prep
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Properties of Sedimentary Rocks that Limit The
Magnitude of Triggered Earthquakes
1. Viscoplastic Stress Relaxation (Relatively Isotropic Stress State)
Clay Rich Rocks - Sone and Zoback (2013a,b; 2014)
Carbonate Rich Rocks - Rassouli and Zoback (in preparation)
2. Velocity Strengthening (Fault Slip via Stable Sliding)
Clay Rich Rocks - Kohli and Zoback (2013)
Carbonate Rich Rocks – Kohli and Zoback (in prep)
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Rate and State Friction Experiments
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Stable Sliding on Faults With High Clay
Stick-Slip/Eqs Stable Sliding/Creep
Kohli and Zoback (2013)
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Kohli and Zoback, in prep
Rate and State Friction Experiments –
Temperature Effects
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Kohli and Zoback, in prep
Rate and State Friction Experiments –
Temperature Effects – Carbonates
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Take Away Messages
1. With Routinely Available Stress and Fault Information – It is
Possible to Avoid Potentially Active Faults – Proactively!
2. Layered Nature of Sedimentary Sequences Suggests That
When Earthquakes Occur (Whether Natural or Triggered)
There Will Often be a Limited Scale of Seismogenic Fault
Slip (and Hence, Earthquake Magnitude)
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27
Thank you
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28
Basic Mohr-Coulomb Analysis
Assume that the crust is critically stressed
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29
Increasing ΔPP Can Makes Some Faults Slip
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30
We Assess Likelihood of Slip in Terms of the ΔPP
Needed to Initiate Slip
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31
Some Faults Can Never be Made to Slip
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Multi-Well Experiment – Western Colorado(1981-1988)
Shmin (Shales)
Shmin (Sands)
PP
From Nelson (2003)
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Multi-Well Experiment – Western Colorado
Shmin (NF)
SV
Shmin (Shales)
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Generalized Constitutive Law from Lab to Reservoir
s(t)= e
0
1
B(1-n)t -n
S
1- S
3= e
0
E
1-nt -n
S1: maximum in situ principal stress
S3: minimum in situ principal stress
E: Young’s modulus
t: total geological time
ε0: total tectonic strain
n: dimensionless parameter that
describes tendency for time-dependent
deformation
Fitting Parameter
Sone and Zoback, 2013