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AssemblymemberAssemblymemberCalifornia LegislatureCalifornia Legislature

2000-20062000-2006

FRANFRANPAVLEYPAVLEY

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Potential Climate ChangeImpacts on California

AgricultureCrop YieldsIrrigation Demands

Coastal AreasErosion of BeachesInundation of Coastal WetlandsAdditional Costs to ProtectCoastal Communities

Species and Natural AreasLoss of Habitat and Species

HealthAir Quality - Respiratory IllnessWeather-related Mortality

Infectious and Tropical Diseases

Climate Changes

Sea Level Rise

TemperatureIncrease

PrecipitationPatterns and Extremes

ForestsForest CompositionGeographic Range of ForestsForest Health and Productivity

Water ResourcesWater SupplyWater QualityCompetition for Water

Source: Anne Grambsch, 1998

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Assembly Bill 1493 Signed

July 22, 2002

Governor Gray Davis signed Assembly Bill 1493, a law that directed the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to adopt regulations to achieve the “maximum feasible and cost effective reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG) from motor vehicles beginning with model year 2009”

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AB 1493 -- The Regulations

•Requires carmakers to reduce GHG from their vehicle fleets by approximately 30% by 2016

•Developed two standards --

•Cars and lightest trucks

•Heavier vehicles

•Created near-term (2009-2012) and mid-term standards (2013-2016)

•CARB approximates cost for new cars to increase by $300

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Additional Provisionsof AB 1493

(d) The regulations adopted by the state board pursuant to subdivision (a) shall not require any of the following:

(1) The imposition of additional fees and taxes on any motor vehicle, fuel, or vehicle miles traveled, pursuant to this section or any other provision of law.

(2) A ban on the sale of any vehicle category in the state, specifically including, but not limited to, sport utility vehicles and light-duty trucks.

(3) A reduction in vehicle weight.

(4) A limitation on, or reduction of, the speed limit on any street or highway in the state.

(5) A limitation on, or reduction of, vehicle miles traveled.

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Reduced operating cost provides payback to Reduced operating cost provides payback to vehicle owner: vehicle owner: Near term (most packages):Near term (most packages): 0 to 5 years 0 to 5 years Mid term (most packages):Mid term (most packages): 4 to 7 years 4 to 7 years

Reduction CostPassenger cars, small trucks -22.5% $328Large trucks -20.6% $363Passenger cars, small trucks -30.4% $1,047Large trucks -25.2% $1,210

Compared to 2009

Near Term

Mid Term

Per Vehicle EmissionReductions and Cost

Source: California Air Resources Board

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AB 1493 -- Implementation

Under the Clean Air Act, other states can adopt California standards or Federal standards. The following states have adopted or will adopt California’s “Clean Car” regulations.

•Connecticut

•Maine

•Massachusetts

•New Jersey

•New York

•Oregon

•Pennsylvania

•Rhode Island

•Vermont

•Washington

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AB 1493 -- Legal Challenges

Lawsuits were filed by domestic and foreign automobile companies in December 2005, claiming…

Clean Air Act

EPA has determined that Congress did not authorize EPA to regulate CO2 or any other greenhouse gas under the Act -- “precludes” EPA granting a waiver of preemption

CAFE Standard

CA’s global warming regs are preempted by the federal CAFE in two ways: they are “related to” fuel economy, and they are inconsistent with NHTSA accomplishment of federal objectives.

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On April 5, 2005, the Government of Canada and the Canadian automotive industry signed a major Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on climate change. Under the MOU the Canadian auto industry will take actions to voluntarily reduce GHG emissions of new vehicles in Canada so that by 2010, annual emission reductions will reach 5.3 megatonnes.

Canada Signs Landmark

Agreement with Its Auto Industry

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“Technological advances will allow the Canadian automotive industry to make significant GHG reductions from cars and trucks through 2010 and beyond.”

Canada’s original goal was to improve fuel efficiency by 25%. Instead they adopted an approach consistent with California’s regulations.

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Executive Order S-3-05

On June 1, 2005, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger issues order and states that the debate on climate change is over.

Further he said, “By working together we can meet the needs of both our economy and environment. Together we can continue California’s environmental heritage and legacy of leadership in innovation in cutting edge technology.”

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TargetsFrom the Governor’s Executive Order

•By 2010, reduce GHG emissions to 2000 levels

•By 2020, reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels

•By 2050, reduce GHG emissions to 80 percent below 1990 levels

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Public Policy Institute Poll

2500 Californians were surveyed in July 2005

www.ppic.org

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Question:

What about the state law that requires all automakers to further reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases from new cars in California beginning in 2009?

Answer:

77% in favor

(85% Dem., 64% Rep., 81% Ind.)

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Question:

Do you oppose or favor the GHG emission targets recently established by Governor Schwarzenegger, which aim to reduce emissions from cars, power plants and industry by more than 80% over the next 50 years?

Answer:

69% in favor

(72% Dem., 69% Rep., 74% Ind.)

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AB 32 (Nunez-Pavley)Why California?

•12th largest emitter of global warming pollution in the world.

•When California takes action, the impact is felt around the country and the world.

•California can gain a competitive advantage in the clean energy market by acting first.

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AB 32Main Provisions

•Mandates reporting of emissions from significant sources by January 1, 2008.

•Requires the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to cap GHG emissions at 1990 levels.

•Emission reductions to begin in 2012 and be achieved by 2020.

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AB 32Additional Provisions

•Develops a list of early actions by July 1, 2007 and adopts regulations by January 1, 2010.

•Includes a scoping plan to achieve statewide GHG emissions reductions by January 1, 2009.

•Allows CARB to adopt regulations on the use of market mechanisms to achieve reductions.

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AB 32Additional Provisions

•Allows CARB to use a broad range of existing authorities for enforcement.

•Authorizes the use of fees with regulated entities for the administering of the statute.

•CARB will convene an environmental justice advisory board representing impacted communities.

•CARB will convene advisory committee to facilitate investment, research and development, and other technologies to reduce GHG.

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AB 32 -- Supporters

•42 Assembly co-authors and 15 Senate co-authors

•U.S. Senators Feinstein and Boxer and 8 members of Congress

•48 cities/counties

•Air, water and utility districts

•Health organizations and professionals

•Faith-based organizations

•Business organizations and leaders

•Organized labor

•Public interest groups

•Entertainment industry

•Investment communities

•Technology and biotechnology industries

•Editorial support from media

•Environmental and conservation organizations

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AB 32Timeline to Implementation

June 30, 2007 -- Early Action Emission Reduction Measures

July 1, 2007 -- Environmental Justice and Economic/Tech advisory boards convene

Jan. 1, 2008 -- Determination of 1990 baseline levels and report on biggest emitters

Jan. 1, 2009 -- Approval of plan for maximum reduction by 2020 (update every 5 years)

Jan. 1, 2010 -- Adopt regulations for early action measures

Jan. 1, 2011 -- Adopt regulations on emission limits and reduction measure which must be real, permanent, quantifiable, verifiable, and enforceable, in addition to cap, in same period

Jan. 1, 2012 -- Emission limits begin

Jan. 2, 2020 -- Emission reductions achieved and stay in force beyond 2020

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GHG Reduction Opportunities Identified by Climate Action Team Report

Strategies Reductions in 2020 (MMTCO2e)

Percent of Reductions in 2020

1.      Energy Efficiency 30 16%

2.      Renewable Energy 17 9%

3.      Cleaner Power Plants 16 8%

4.      Clean Cars 48 25%

5.      Renewable Fuels 4 2%

6.      Smart Growth 27 14%

7.      Water Efficiency 1 1%

8.      Forestry 35 18%

9.      Other Strategies 13 7%

10. Innovation Not estimated N/A

TOTAL 192 100%

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What Else is California Doing?

•Renewable Portfolio Standards - 20%

•Million Solar Roofs

•AB 1007 - Alternative Fuels

•Fuel Cell Partnership

•Local Government Actions

•Energy Efficient Appliances

•Green Building Designs

•SB 1368 (Perata)

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SB 1368 (Perata)Main Provisions

•GHG emissions from new or upgraded power plants for baseload generation must be as low or lower than GHG emissions from new, combined-cycle natural gas power plants.

•GHG performance standard will apply to all in-state and out-of-state generators that provide power to California.

•Electric Reliability -- ensures that the standards will not negatively impact the reliability of the energy services that California ratepayers receive.

•CEC and CPUC Regulations -- these Commissions are required to adopt regulations through a public process.

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What’s DrivingGreen-tech Investment?

•Rising cost of fuel

•Economic expansion of China, India and other Asian nations.

•Growing concerns on global warming

•War in the Middle East and too much reliance on foreign oil

•Desire for a secure energy future

AB 32 sends a strong signal to the market for clean technologies by adopting an enforceable cap.

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Conclusions:

•There is still time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, if we take strong action now.

•The Review estimates that if we don’t act, the overall costs and risks of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global GDP each year, now and forever.

•In contrast, the cost of action -- reducing GHG emissions to avoid the worst of climate change -- can be limited to around 1% of global GDP each year.

October 30,2006

Sir Nicholas Stern for the Government of the

United Kingdom

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Draft Report Findings:

•World temperatures have risen to levels not seen in at least 12,000 years,propelled by rapid warming in the past 30 years.

•Greenland’s ice mass has been melting in what NASA calls a “dramatic” rate of 41 cubic miles per year, far surpassing the gain of 14 miles per year from snowfall.

•The levels of the oceans, expanding from warmth and land-ice runoff, have risen at a rate of about 2 millimeters a year between 1961 and 2003, and by more than 3 millimeters a year between 1993 and 2003.

November 2006

4th Assessment

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We’re in an Environmental and Economic Race

•Impacts of Global Warming are visible and accelerating

•California is seizing this opportunity to become the home of clean technologies and alternative fuels

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P.O. Box 1833P.O. Box 1833Agoura Hills, CA 91376Agoura Hills, CA 91376

Tel: (818) 865-1385Tel: (818) 865-1385

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