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ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | OCTOBER 2009

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Asian Tigers Investor Report Co.: Suite 8156, 3905 Two Exchange Square, 8 Connaught Place, Central Hong Kong

Editor in Chief Charles Greene

Managing EditorMark Wayne

ContributorsChris Champion David Bowden Steven Lunt Charles Greene Jack Dixon Bert Olbes Bruce Curran Michael Wilson Bernardo Villegas Kelly Yang Rajat Gupta Alan Aguas

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Production ManagerFerdie Ng

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Asian Tigers Investor Report, Co. Suite 8156, 3905 Two Exchange Square 8 Connaught Place Central Hong Kong

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Contents

The Chindonesia Triangle: Unmasking Asia’s next Growth Engine中國-印度-印尼：增長金三角揭開亞洲經濟增長新引擎的面紗作者 / by Jack Dixon

Whipping boys替罪羊作者 / by

Vietnam and LaosA Tale of Two Economies越南和老撾各有特點，但息息相關作者 / by Michael Wilson

The OFW Phenomenon 「外勞」現象作者/by Bert Olbes

Investing in Agribusiness in the Philippines菲律賓農業綜合企業投資前景看好作者/by Dr. Bernardo M. Villegas

Philippine MiningTapping Golden Opportunities 菲律賓礦業

Features

Hong KongProperty Market Surges 36

把握黃金機遇作者/by Bruce Curran

Business Thais泰國：營商寶地作者/by Steven Lunt

Hong Kong’s Property Market Surges 香港樓市再現火爆作者 / by Michael Wilson

New Policy Accelerates the Fast Developing Chinese Renewable Energy Market新政策助推中國可再生能源市場發展作者 / by Kelly Yang

Time to Tap the Ring of Fire開發火山鏈資源時機已到作者 / by Rajat Gupta

Malaysia Truly Asia馬來西亞，亞洲真本色作者 / by David Bowden

Renovation Under Way 革新進行時作者 / by Alan Aguas

Vietnam & LaosA Tale of Two Economies越南和老撾各有特點，但息息相關

10

14

16

19

19

24

32

36

40

20

Departments6

58

The Numbers Game 數字的遊戲作者 / by Chris Champion

Technical Overview of Markets

ATIR Market Report

42

45

52

56

On the Cover:

19 Philippine OFW

32 40Thailand China’s Renewable Energy

45 Malaysian Tourism

Vietnam & LaosA Tale of Two Economies越南和老撾各有特點，但息息相關

The Numbers Game 數字的遊戲作者 / by Chris Champion


ATIR Market Report

OCTOBER 2009

6 Opinion

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT |

GameNumbersThe

專欄作者/by Chris Champion

數字的遊戲

Telstra investors long on patience, short on return澳電訊：放長線就能釣大魚？

“I have said it before and I will say it again, for the life of me I cannot understand why anyone would want to own (shares in) Telstra. It just does not make good investment sense.’’ The words are those of Dale Gillham, chief analyst at boutique Australian investment company Wealth Within. Telstra is

Australia’s dominant telecommunications provider, and its shares are probably owned more than any other Australian company by non-institutional investors, mums and dads believing that size and government backing and technology and a lot of fancy talk add up to a sure long-term investment return.「以前我說過，現在我還要說：我這輩

子都不明白為什麼人人都想擁有澳電訊

（的股票），它根本不值得投資。」此話出

自澳洲投資機構Wealth Within首席分析師

戴爾•吉爾漢之口。澳電訊是澳洲頭號電訊

服務供應商，可能也是散戶股東最多的澳

洲公司，人們都相信，因為有規模，有技

術，有政府作後盾還有無數的溢美之詞，

投資澳電訊必有豐厚的長線回報。

They have been believing that since 1997 when, amidst huge fanfare, the Australian government took the national telecoms giant public. Never before had such a huge float been seen in Australia; never before had one received such massive media and public attention.

PHO

TOG

RAPH

© K

OST

AN

zA

PHO

TOG

RAPH

© K

OST

AN

zA

Telstra Corporate Centre in Melbourne, and a Telstra Tower

OCTOBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Opinion 7

About 1.8 million Australians finally bought shares in the float, and every one of them thought they had won the lottery. 他們的信念紮根於1997年。那一年，這

家電訊巨頭在澳洲政府主導下隆重上市，

其發行規模之大在澳洲歷史上絕無僅有，

也從來沒有一家公司如此萬眾矚目，最終

約有一百八十萬澳洲人買到股份，當時大

家都覺得中了頭彩。

They were, however, even then, on shaky ground.誰知從那時起就埋下了禍根。

Telstra was formed in 1992 when the old Telecom was taken private. The privatisation was the ultimate consequence, as one commentator said this month, of a series of governments being unable to do what was really needed – to separate the monolith into a series of more efficient working parts.1992年，原澳洲電信公司被私有化，澳

電訊橫空出世。誠如這個月某位時事評論

員所言，此次私有化是幾屆政府無法把這

個龐然大物分拆成更有效率的營運實體，

無可奈何之下選擇的結果。

So by 1997, when Telstra returned to public life, the homework had not really been done properly. As Graeme Samuel, chairman of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, pointed out also this month, “National competition policy demanded that before Telstra (Telecom) was privatised, there should be a thorough examination of a structural separation. That never took place.”所以1997年澳電訊上市的時候，這門功

課其實仍未做好。本月，澳洲競爭及消費

者委員會主席格雷姆•塞繆爾指出：「根

據我國的競爭政策，澳電訊（澳洲電信公

司）在被私有化之前，應當經過全面的結

構拆分審查，但這卻成了空談。」

In other words, investors who plunged into the Telstra float should, or could, have known that uncertainty was a major

issue in the short, medium and long-term future of the company. 換言之，當初爭相認購澳電訊股票的投

資者應該或者可能已經知道，這個不確定

因素將會是關乎公司短期，中期乃至長期

前景的大問題。

In 1997, the finance minister of the day, John Fahey, warned on the opening page of the Telstra prospectus: “Investors should be aware that an investment in Telstra is not guaranteed by the Australian Government and that the value of shares can go down as well as up.”1997年，時任財長約翰•費伊在澳電訊招

股書的開篇告誡道：「投資者應明白，對澳

電訊所作的投資不獲澳洲政府擔保，股票

價格漲跌無常。」

True words. In 1999, those first float (there were three float tranches in all) shares had risen nearly 300 per cent in value. Today, 10 years later, the same shares are just under the float price. 真人不說假話。1999年，第一批上市

流通的股份（合共三批）價格飆升將近

300%，然而十年後的今天，同樣是這些股

份，股價卻已跌破當年的上市價。

As of the third week of September, Royal Bank of Scotland, UBS, Goldman Sachs JBWere and Merrill Lynch were all maintaining Buy ratings on Telstra shares. Don’t you believe it.截止到9月份第三週，皇家蘇格蘭銀

行，Goldman Sachs JBWere和美林依然維

持其對澳電訊股票的「買入」評級。信不

信由你。

“My first rule of consumerism is never to buy anything you can’t make your children carry.” —Bill Bryson

名人名言 ...

「我的首要消費原則就是從來不買孩子們拿不動的東西。」—比爾•布萊森

They said...

Despite not very good ratings from consumers, Testra is still the largest telecom provider in Australia

OCTOBER 2009ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT |

Opinion8

All eyes on jobs就業，就業，還是就業

One thing you can bet on in these troubled economic times is that when the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development publishes a report, it will not contain good news. The OECD has just published a report which estimates that the economic downturn will cost about 25 million jobs in the developed world by the end of 2010. 在這個經濟寒冬裏，但凡經濟合作與發

展組織發表報告，肯定不會有好消息。這

次經合組織的報告估計，到2010年末，發

達國家將因經濟衰退失去大約兩千五百萬

個就業崗位。

The document, released just ahead of the G20 conference in Pittsburgh, US, on September 24 and 25, says 15 million jobs were lost between the end of 2007 and July 2009, and another 10 million are under threat until the end of next year despite recent signs of an economic recovery in some countries.此報告發佈之際，正逢美國匹茲堡G20

峰會將於9月24-25日召開。報告提到，從

2007年末到2009年7月已損失一千五百萬個

崗位，儘管近期某些國家出現經濟復甦跡

象，可是明年年底之前，恐怕還會有一千

萬人飯碗不保。

OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria said, “Employment is the bottom line of the current crisis. We cannot claim victory because we see economic indicators going up. We should not assume that renewed GDP

growth will take care of this.”經合組織總幹事安吉•葛利亞表示：「就

業是這場危機的底線。我們不能看到經濟

指標回升就歡呼勝利，不要以為GDP恢復增

長就萬事大吉。」

Developed world unemployment is currently at its highest levels since World War II. It climbed from 5.6 per cent at the end of 2007 to 8.3 per cent by June 2009. The latest figure, for July, is 8.5 per cent. “A major risk is that much of this large hike in unemployment becomes structural in nature,” the report says. 目前發達國家的失業率已達二戰以來的

最高峰，從2007年末的5.6%，攀升到2009

年6月的8.3%，7月份最新數字為8.5%。報

告稱：「一個主要風險是這次失業率的大

幅上升在很大程度上是結構性的。」

This downturn is costing the world’s leading economies more jobs than other recession since the early 1970s, with the

United States, Spain and Ireland the worst hit. 此次衰退給全世界發達經濟體造成的損

失，遠勝七十年代初以來的歷次衰退，其

中美國，西班牙和愛爾蘭是重災區。

Investment in education is necessary to cement recovery, the OECD says. Angel Gurria personally urged member states to invest in education to counteract negative effects as the world’s economy recovers. “As we emerge from the global economic crisis, demand for university education will be higher than ever,” he said. “Investments in human capital will contribute to recovery.”經合組織表示，為了給經濟復甦保駕護

航，應該大力投資興辦教育。葛利亞力勸

成員國在世界經濟復甦之際加大教育投資

以抵禦負面效應。「隨著我們走出全球經濟

危機，大學教育需求將勝過以往，」他說：

「對人力資本的投資有助促進經濟復甦。」|AT|

DURING THE EARLY, CHAOTIC,

fear-filled days of the Great Depression, John Maynard Keynes was reportedly asked if such an event had ever happened before. “Yes,” said Keynes. “It was called the Dark Ages, and it lasted four hundred years.”

在「大蕭條」之初那段動盪不安、人心惶惶的日子裏，有次凱恩斯被問到從前是否發生過同樣的事。「是的，」凱恩斯答道：「那便是『黑暗時代』，而它持續了四百年。」

史上一刻A MOMENT IN HISTORY

Investment in education will contribute to the recovery of

the global economic crisis

Economic stimulus packages aims for economic growth by propping up household expenditure, through higher salaries and lower prices

中國-印度-印尼：

增長金三角

IndonesIa sIts quIetly on Its Southeast Asian perch seemingly unmindful of the closer attention it is getting from economists constantly monitoring developments on the effects of the current global economic meltdown. Analysts have noted, after completing assessments for the first yearly half just past, that Indonesia had been less exposed to the global recession than many of its Asian neighbors; it posted an equivalent annual economic expansion of 4.2%, prompting economists to upwardly revise their initial growth forecasts from 2.6% to 4.1% for 2009 and from 3.4% to 4.4% for 2010. This outstanding performance amid adverse conditions has been largely attributed to its government’s 71.3-trillion-Rupiah (US$7.1 billion) stimulus package this year. Including cash transfers, higher salaries for civil servants and lower prices for food and fuel, the economic stimulus is doing just that –

stimulating economic growth by propping up household expenditure and boosting personal disposable income.

環球經濟危機的走向讓經濟學家們牽腸

掛肚，可東南亞一隅的印尼卻似乎不為

所動。回顧剛剛過去的上半年，分析人

士發現，印尼受全球衰退的衝擊比許多

亞洲鄰國小得多，經濟年化增長率達到

4.2%，這促使經濟學家上調了他們的增

長預測，將2009年

預測由2.6%升至

4.1%，2010年則由

3.4%升至4.4%。嚴

峻形勢下，印尼經

濟能有出色表現，

主要歸功於政府今

年出台71.3萬億盧

比（71億美元）的

刺激計劃，涉及注

資，公務員加薪，

平抑食品及燃料價

格等，旨在透過提

振家庭開支及增加個人可支配收入推動

經濟增長。

The world’s most populous Muslim nation has resolutely risen from the ashes of the East Asian financial crisis that affected Indonesia in both its economic and political fronts in mid-1997, as well as a “mini-crisis” on account of rises in international oil prices and import volumes in late 2005. Reshaping its political and economic structures, Indonesia now stands as Southeast Asia’s largest economy and one of the star performers among the world’s recognized cluster of emerging market economies. In fact, it has become the 18th largest economy in the world and the third fastest-growing in the whole of Asia, behind China and India – two of the countries that form the formidable yet informal BRIC bloc (with Brazil and Russia completing the quartet). Thus, Indonesia is now poised to solidify its

作者/by Jack Dixon

OCTOBER 2009

10 Economy


ChindonesiaTriangle

The

Unmasking Asia’s Next GrowTH ENGiNE

揭開亞洲經濟增長新引擎的面紗

As the world’s biggest exporter of power-station coal and largest producer of palm oil, indonesia is in an enviable vantage point...by supplying the ever-increasing demands from india and China

Indonesia will be a major coal supplier for Tata’s expansions of new coal power stations in India

增長金三角

position in what is increasingly being renowned in international economic circles as the next growth engine, Chindonesia.環球經濟危機的走向讓經濟學家們牽腸

掛肚，可東南亞一隅的印尼卻似乎不為所

動。回顧剛剛過去的上半年，分析人士發

現，印尼受全球衰退的衝擊比許多亞洲鄰

國小得多，經濟年化增長率達到4.2%，這

促使經濟學家上調了他們的增長預測，將

2009年預測由2.6%升至4.1%，2010年則

由3.4%升至4.4%。嚴峻形勢下，印尼經

濟能有出色表現，主要歸功

於政府今年出台71.3萬

億盧比（71億美元）

的刺激計劃，涉及

注資，公務員加

薪，平抑食品及

燃料價格等，旨

在透過提振家

庭開支及增加

個人可支配收入

推動經濟增長。

Growth Triangle增長金三角

Indonesia, alongside China and Indonesia, is being touted as “Chindonesia, the next growth triangle.” The man who coined the term is Bloomberg’s Nicholas Cashmore who, in an article earlier this year, made a modest case to link Indonesia with two of Asia’s giant economies – China and India – as

an emerging markets bloc analogous to the BRIC countries predicted by the Goldman Sachs Group of the US. It is prognosticated that the rise of Chindonesia and, in the broader context, Asia would represent a restoration of the region’s former pre-eminence in the global economy in the very long run. 最先把中國，印度和印尼稱為「中-印-

印尼增長金三角」的，是彭博資訊的尼古

拉斯•喀什莫爾，他在年初的一篇文章中提

出這個概念，將印尼同中國，印度這兩個

亞洲經濟巨人聯繫在一起，組成一個新

興市場集團，這與美國高盛集團

提出的「金磚四國」有異曲同

工之妙。在今後很長的歲月

裏，隨著「中-印-印尼」乃至

整個亞洲的崛起，這個地區必將重

現其在環球經濟中的光輝。

The Chindonesia Triangle is premised on a projected population decline in developed economies that will accelerate the shift towards Asia, a demographic scenario which management specialist Peter Drucker referred to as “the future that has already happened.” It is claimed that a demographic decline in the developed world is “both certain and

lasting.” Evidence have been brought forward that, for the first time since 1400, Europe is on the brink of a net decline in its workforce, with the population of Japan and Russia already observed as shrinking. In sharp contrast to this are forecasts for another 170 million people to join the workforce in Chindonesia, setting up the region for reaping a rich demographic dividend and boosting the triad’s growth and global standing in the next decade. Indonesia, by itself, has a large domestic economy that has side-stepped the global financial crisis and is seen to grow larger in the decade ahead, reaching 260 million people with a 60% urbanization rate. 「中-印-印尼金三角」的理論依據是發

達經濟體的人口將會下降，使得亞洲地位

突顯，這便是管理學大師彼德•杜拉克所

說的「已發生的未來」。發達國家的人口

萎縮是「必然和持續」的過程。有證據顯

示歐洲的勞動人口正瀕臨萎縮的邊緣，這

是1400年以來所未見，而日本和俄羅斯的

人口已經開始減少。與此形成鮮明對比的

是，未來十年「中-印-印尼」的勞動人口

將增加1.7億人，整個地區將收穫豐厚的人

口紅利，推動「中-印-印尼」三角增長，

提升他們在國際上的地位。印尼憑藉龐大

的內需經濟避開了全球金融危機，今後十

年人口將達2.6億，城市化率達60%，所以

印尼的未來大有可為。

Top Asia-Pacific economic researchers have established trends showing Indonesia’s economy doubling in the


Economy 11

next six years. As the world’s biggest exporter of power-station coal and largest producer of palm oil, Indonesia is in an enviable vantage point for achieving this by supplying the ever-increasing demands from India and China. With demand from Western countries remaining sluggish, fulfilling the needs of the world’s two most-populated nations would show an economy under reformist President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono very likely meeting its target of boosting growth to 7%. 據亞太地區的頂級經濟研究員預測，印

尼經濟將在今後六年翻一番。作為全球最

大的電煤出口國和棕櫚油生產國，印尼的

優勢得天獨厚，有中印兩國的龐大需求，

不難實現這個目標。雖然西方國家的需求

持續低迷，然而有這兩個世界上人口最多

的國家作為後盾，高舉改革大旗的蘇西洛

總統領導下的印尼很有希望實現7%的經濟

增長率。

Enter the Komodo科摩多龍降臨

In his Bloomberg report entitled “Chindonesia: Enter the Komodo (an obvious reference to eastern Indonesia’s

endemic reptile),” Cashmore predicted that China, India and Indonesia combined will generate for investors $10 trillion of wealth by 2015. Concluding that the three economies are Asia’s “next growth triangle,” Cashmore wrote, “Together, China and India are increasingly becoming the biggest marketplace for almost everything sold on the planet. Indonesia plays a symbiotic role in the emergence of China and India and, as this role becomes more pronounced in years to come, it will boost (Indonesia’s) growth, investment and consumption… As a leading supplier of commodities, Indonesia is leveraged to the growth of Chindia referring to China and India). Indonesia is ready to rise in the world economic hierarchy and take its place alongside China and India.”在寫給彭博資訊的一篇名為「中-印-印

尼：科莫多龍降臨」（科莫多龍是印尼東部

的一種土生蜥蜴）的報道中，喀什莫爾預

料，到2015年中國，印度和印尼合共將為

投資者創造十萬億美元的財富，他斷定這

三國將是亞洲的「下個增長金三角」。喀什

莫爾寫道：「中國和印度正成為這星球上最

大的商品市場。中印崛起之際，印尼扮演

著與之共榮的角色，而在今後的歲月裏，

這角色將會益發突顯，它將促進（印尼

的）增長，投資和消費…作為一個大宗商

品供應大國，印尼的成長跟中國和印度息

息相關，印尼已做好準備崛起於世界經濟

之林，與中國和印度並肩發展。」

Joining Cashmore in his optimistism for Indonesia is no less than the World Bank. The Washington-based lender says that Indonesia’s $433 billion economy can expand considerably more than 7% in the face of the rapid expansion of the economies of India and China. India’s industrial production was observed at its fastest pace in the eight months to May this year, and the South Asian nation – being the biggest buyer of Indonesia’s palm oil and cashew – is predicted to overtake China next year as the world’s fastest-growing, major economy. Meanwhile, China’s economy is expected to grow at 7.2% this year, an expansion rate that is seen as a further boost to Indonesia’s exports to China, which last


Economy12

China’s economy is expected to grow at 7.2% this year, an expansion rate that is seen as a further boost to indonesia’s exports to China which last year already increased to 16%

Puxi: one of the most developed section of Shanghai, China

year already increased to 16%. Compare this to the modest 10.7% hike in demand from the US – the second-largest buyer of Indonesian products. 跟喀什莫爾一樣，世界銀行同樣看好印

尼。總部位於華盛頓的世行表示，面對中

國和印度經濟的快速擴張，總規模達4,330

億美元的印尼經濟有望實現7%以上的大幅

增長。截至今

年5月止的八

個月，印度的

工業生產創下

最快增速，這

個南亞國家明

年很可能超過

中國，成為世

界上增長最

快的主要經濟

體，而印度是

印尼所產棕櫚油和腰果的頭號買家。與此

同時，中國經濟今年可望增長7.2%，這將

有力帶動印尼對中國的出口。去年，印尼

對中國的出口增長了16%。相比之下，作為

印尼產品第二大買家的美國，其需求量僅

增加10.7%。

The World Bank, however, believes Indonesia can realize this vast potential if Yudhoyono is able to solve current problems in its infrastructure facilities. The World Bank’s representative in Jakarta, Joachim von Amsberg, said that the 59-year-old former general’s continued stay in office should empower him to double spending on roads and power to $140 billion by 2014. 世行認為，如果蘇西洛能夠解決當前困

擾印尼的基礎設施問題，那麼印尼一定能

釋放出巨大潛力。世行駐雅加達代表喬基

姆•馮•安斯伯格表示，將軍出身現年59歲

的蘇西洛連任總統，應能確保道路和電力

建設開支在2014年之前翻一番，達到1,400

億美元。

The Task Ahead任重道遠

Eleven CEOs recently surveyed by Bloomberg News were unanimous in pointing out that Indonesia’s top priorities for attaining the goal of boosting growth and reducing poverty is by finding immediate solutions to the country’s congested roads, neglected ports and aging power plants. They addedthat Indonesia also needs to attract global investors by improving transparency in

its legal system and reducing corruption. One of the survey respondents, General Electric Southeast Asia President Stuart Dean, said that “keeping the drive for fair and transparent practices and processes, which helps secure a level playing field for all,” will help Indonesia’s businesses. On the other hand, Kaamil Fareed, a senior

trading manager at the Coal & Oil Group (which supplies coal to India and Pakistan), has

estimated that around 40% of Indonesia’s coal production this year alone will come from the $4.14 billion, 4,000-megawatt plant being built by Tata Power Company in western India, which will be fed with coal from Indonesian mines. Tata Power acquired a 30% stake in two coal mining units owned by Indonesia’s PT Bumi Resources two years ago. India’s coal imports are expected to increase over two-fold from the current level of 40 million tons to about 100 million tons by 2012. 接受彭博資訊調查的十一位CEO一致認

為，印尼的當務之急是儘快設法解決道路

擁擠，港口失修和電廠老化的問題，這樣

才能實現經濟增長減輕貧困的目標。他們

並指，若要吸引環球投資者，印尼需大力

懲治腐敗，提高法律系統透明度。受訪者

之一的通用電氣東南亞總裁斯圖爾特•迪恩

表示：「堅持推進公平透明的執法和法律

程序，創造人人平等的競爭環境」，方能

促進印尼的發展大計。Coal & Oil集團

（主要向印度和巴基斯坦供應煤炭）的資深

交易經理卡米爾•法里德估計，今年印尼

原煤產量約有四成將會供應給塔塔電力公

司建於印度西部的一座發電廠。該廠造價

41.4億美元，發電量可達4,000兆瓦，依

靠印尼煤礦供煤。兩年前，塔塔電力公司

收購了印尼PT Bumi Resources旗下兩座

煤礦的三成股權。到2012年，印度的煤炭

進口量將從現在的4,000萬噸翻兩番，達

到1億噸左右。

Chindonesia as a theoretical economic bloc is already pumping out economic activity equal to 44% of the US economy. Within the next five years, the group’s combined GDP is forecast to exceed $10 trillion. It is not difficult to see how Indonesia, as a commodity-reliant economy, stands to benefit from efforts by developed world economies in the near future to re-stimulate demand by jacking up the prices of commodities in the global markets. And as an internationally major supplier of resources to China and India, Indonesia looks a cinch to grow rapidly alongside those two economic Goliaths. 作為一個概念上的經濟集團，「中-印-印

尼」當前經濟總量相當於美國的44%。在今

後五年內，三國的GDP總量有望突破十萬億

美元。不久的將來，在發達國家刺激需求

的努力下，全球市場的大宗商品價格必然

水漲船高，這將使倚賴大宗商品貿易的印

尼獲益匪淺。與此同時，作為中國和印度

在國際上主要的資源供應國，印尼也將與

這兩個經濟巨人一道蓬勃成長。|AT|


Economy 13

Indonesia’s top priorities for boosting growth:

Congested roads yNeglected ports yAging power plants yImprove transparency in yits legal system Reduce corruptio y n

OCTOBER 2009

14 Economy


australIa may be movIng through the global financial crisis with less discomfort than some, but there are plenty of businesses feeling pain and unemployment remains a major concern.

較之某些國家，全球金融危機對澳洲而言不

算難熬，但大量企業經營艱難且失業率居

高不下始終令澳洲政府困擾。

There is a general feeling that Australia has escaped not only recession but serious problems in the financial system and the property market. Even its stockmarket has proven remarkably resilient. But one area remains of real concern in Australia – unemployment. The doomsday scenarios of a few months ago have not eventuated but, unlike a technical recession, few people are as yet willing to dismiss the possibility of unemployment of traumatic levels.市場普遍認為，澳洲不僅逃過經濟

衰退的劫難，還幸運得躲過金融體系和房地產市場的嚴重問題。甚至連澳洲的股票市場都呈現強勁反彈。但有一個問題一直令澳洲政府憂心忡忡，這就是失業率。數月前世界末日般的經濟危機尚未結束，但與技術性衰退不同的是，人們還必須面對這樣的現

實，即澳洲失業率很有可能達到極其嚴重的程度。

It was not surprising, therefore, that the media latched on to a story this month involving the troubles and potential closure of a factory in Tasmania. The story has many facets. The plant, run by the ACL Bearings company, produces car parts, and is the only manufacturer of some of those parts in the country. ACL Bearings went into receivership in August, and the concern is that, should it close, it will cause considerable job losses in the wider automotive industry.這並不意外，因此，澳洲媒體在本

月用大量篇幅報道塔斯馬尼亞島一間工廠面臨關閉的危機。該報道涉及諸多方面的問題。該工廠由 ACL Bearings 營運，主要生產汽車零配件，是部分零件在澳洲的唯一生產企業。ACL Bearings 於今年8月進入破產管理狀態，業界擔心該工廠一旦關閉，將導致整個汽車行業大量裁員。

A report on the respected television news program The 7.30 Report said the production of engines by Ford, for example, would halt if its supply of certain parts from ACL Bearings were to cease. ACL employs 350 people, but

The 7.30 Report surmised that a total of 40,000 Australian jobs might be affected if the factory closed.著名電視節目 The 7.30 Report 在

報道中指出，假如 ACL Bearings 的部分零件終止供貨，福特汽車的引擎生產將被迫中斷。ACL 員工僅350人，但 The 7.30 Report 估計，假如該工廠關閉，澳洲將有 40,000 個工作崗位受到影響。

Now the story gets juicier. ACL Bearings has infuriated its own workers by saying that, while the business may survive, it will probably be without those 350 workers. The degree of anger is so intense because the ACL workers agreed several months ago to take pay cuts in an attempt to keep the business solvent.目前，該事件又有進一步發展。ACL

Bearings 宣稱，要想保留該工廠，可能會裁掉350名工人，此言一出，工人憤怒不已，原因在於，就在數月前，ACL 的工人為避免工廠倒閉曾接受減薪方案。

But there is more. Not only may the workers lose their jobs, ACL has revealed that they will not receive redundancy payments.但還有更令人意外的消息。ACL 表

whippingboys 替罪羊

PHO

TO C

RED

IT: W

WW

.ABC

.NET

.AU


Economy 15

示，這些工人不僅可能失去工作，甚至連遣散費都無法得到。

Two final facts have fuelled the anger to boiling point. Firstly, ACL’s woes come despite having received millions of dollars over the years in government subsidies. And, secondly, while the 350 factory workers get nothing, it has been revealed that two company directors have been paid redundancy payments totalling A$460,000. The two directors began receiving the payments just after a Federal Government grant to save the company in mid-2008, and they have been receiving monthly payments ever since.最後兩條消息更是令工人的怒火徹底

爆發。其一，ACL 多年來因營運困難曾透過政府部門得到數百萬澳元的補貼。其二，在350名工人兩手空空的同時，媒體披露，兩位公司總監則得到合計460,000澳元的遣散費。這兩位總監自2008年中聯邦政府批准挽救公司後開始領取遣散費，此後逐月領取。

The 7.30 Report journalists covering the story got a comment on this situation from the Australian Metal Workers Union which, predictably, called it “totally unacceptable” that directors should receive redundancy payments and other staff should not. The coverage played heavily on the emotional side of the story, giving plenty of exposure to statements about inequality and unfairness. 報道該事件的 7.30 Report 記者曾

引用澳洲鋼鐵工人工會（Australian Metal Workers Union）的表態，認為總監能領取遣散費而員工分文皆無的做法「完全無法接受」。報道用大量篇幅渲染感情因素，大量報道工人對不平等和不公正現象的抨擊。

Somewhat buried under the accusations and acrimony was the ACL response, given

by Ivan James, who was the chief executive at the time the payments were sanctioned. It should come as no surprise that James said, “The payments were authorised back in 2008 and were the directors’ legal entitlements under their contracts.”批准遣散費計劃時擔任ACL行政總

裁的 Ivan James 對此事件作出回應，但很快淹沒在一片質疑和譴責聲中。James 表示：「我們早在2008年就批准該遣散費支付方案，這是總監依據合約擁有的合法權利。」這種說法令人毫不意外。

I say this should come as no surprise because we have heard this story before. It is the same story, eliciting the same emotional response, that broke in early December 2008 when The New York Times reported that AIG Corporation, the recipient of a US$85 billion bailout, was planning to pay $165 million in bonuses to 130 executives.之所以說毫不意外，是因為類似的

故事早已上演。2008年12月初，《紐約時報》曾報道，接受850億資金援助的美國國際集團（AIG Corporation）計劃向130位高管支付高達1.65億美元的紅利，引發媒體的一致指責。

It was another emotional boilover, with arguments flying in all directions. Amidst all the finger-stabbing and chest thumping, AIG tried to argue that, as in the ACL case, the payments were contractual. AIG, not surprisingly, struggled to be heard. Nobody was interested in a matter-of-fact argument which effectively said that it would have been against the law not to pay the bonuses. 該事件令人公眾怒火中燒，各種譴責

紛至遝來。面對種種抨擊和質疑，美國國際集團解釋道，支付紅利完全是履行合約條款，理由與 ACL 相同。美國國際集團竭盡全力向公眾傳達自己的解釋，令人毫不意外。但幾乎沒人關注一個基本的事實，即拒絕支付紅利會觸犯法律。

At the time, however, there were a few authoritative voices supporting AIG. 當時，曾有數間權威媒體支

援美國國際集團。 Britain’s Financial Times. for

example, said, “These bonuses were paid not as a reward for past performance, which would indeed be absurd, but to retain people deemed necessary to the unwinding of its mistakes. That reasoning offends against the principle of fairness, but if one is more interested in stabilising the economy than striking back at supposed culprits, it should not be dismissed out of hand.”例如，英國的《金融時報》認為：

「支付紅利並非為了獎勵以往的業績，這的確有些荒謬，而主要是為了挽留必要的人才，從而糾正業務偏差。這種做法確實有違公平原則，但如果有人不去更多關注如何穩定經濟，而是竭力攻擊假設的罪人，這種人亦應受到嚴懲。」

The director payments made by both AIG and ACL were normal within context, a context determined by a free market economy, and attacks on the AIG and ACL processes are in principle attacks on the free market.在自由市場經濟體制下，美國國際

集團和 ACL 向高管支付紅利或遣散費十分正常，從原則上而言，攻擊美國國際集團和 ACL 的做法就是攻擊自由市場。

If the ACL factory workers also have employment contracts guaranteeing redundancy payments – and The 7.30 Report said it had obtained documentation showing they do – then this is an issue which must be taken up with the ACL receiver and, if necessary, with the law. To throw vitriol at directors who did no more than negotiate a remuneration package which reflects their market worth – now that’s unfair.如果 ACL 工廠的工人持有附帶遣

散費保證條款的勞動合約（The 7.30 Report 表示已經得到證明工人可獲得遣散費的文件），則 ACL 高管必須按照合約履行，如有必要，應訴諸法律。ACL 的總監不過是與管理層協商，得到能體現其市場價值的薪酬待遇，用刻薄語言對其肆意攻擊，才是真正的不公平。|AT|Ivan James, the chief executive of ACL Bearings at that time

ACL employs 350 people, but The 7.30 report surmised that a total of 40,000 Australian jobs might be affected if the factory closed

there’s no doubt that the last twelve months have been tough on all the smaller Asian economies. The luckier ones, with relatively self-sufficient domestic populations and only modest export exposure, have stayed on course but have found it tough to attract foreign investment amid the general rush for safe currency havens. The less fortunate ones, with more internationalised economies, have seen their economies badly damaged by falling appetites in Europe and the United States. All of them are having to readjust their policy positions in order to accommodate the growing economic might of China.

毋庸置疑，亞洲所有規模較小的經濟體在

過去十二個月內幾乎度日如年。有些國家

經濟相對保持自給自足，對出口的依賴有

限，較為幸運，但在熱錢尋求避風港的背

景下，吸引外國投資變得愈發艱難。而經

濟全球化程度較深的國家難有這般好運，

受歐美市場需求急跌的影響，其經濟遭受

重創。這些國家不得不重新調整政策定

位，以便迎合中國不斷增長的經濟需求。

Vietnam and Laos are two of the more problematic investment locations from a foreigner’s point of view. Unlike neighbouring Cambodia, which has been a multi-party democracy since 1985, they are still essentially single-party communist regimes which restrict foreign

companies’ activities, while also reserving certain priority sectors for government-dominated businesses. Vietnam’s stock market is small, poorly regulated, and attracts only marginal interest from foreign investors. And Laos’s market is not due to open at all until next year. Yet both countries are being sought after by international corporations eager to take direct equity stakes. There are major differences in the way they have chosen to go about meeting that demand.

在外國人看來，越南和老撾是兩個問題

重重的投資目的地。這裏與1985年建立多

党民主政體的鄰國柬埔寨截然不同，兩國

仍保持一黨專政的共產主義政體，嚴格限

制外國公司的活動，特定重要行業仍保持

政府主導。越南股票市場規模較小，監管

不力，僅有少量外國投資人關注。而老撾

市場在明年之前都不會開放。但這兩個國

家均得到跨國企業的關注，希望把握機會

進行直接股權投資。為滿足跨國企業的投

資需求，兩國選擇的方式迥異。

Both countries have been making strong economic growth. Laos’s GDP grew by an impressive 7.1% in the first half of 2009, thanks in large part to a combination of government and private investment and a progressive loosening of controls. But Vietnam

which managed “only” 3.9% growth in the first half, is facing an intractable problem which seems likely to defeat its hopes of achieving a 6.5% overall figure for the year. 兩國經濟均實現強勁增長。2009年上半

年，老撾 GDP 增長高達7.1％，令人印象

深刻，政府與私人投資的結合以及放寬政

府控制是主要貢獻因素。但越南在今年上

半年「僅」實現3.9％的增長，經濟發展

面臨棘手問題，實現全年增長6.5％的目

標似乎無望。

OCTOBER 2009

16 Economy


A T A L E O F T W O E C O N O M I E SVietnam Laos&

The less fortunate ones, with more internationalised economies, have

seen their economies badly damaged by falling appetites in Europe and the United States

各有特點, 但息息相關越南和老撾

作者/by Michael Wilson

Vietnam Opens Up the Credit Taps越南放開信貸

To put it very simply, Vietnam has been stepping on the throttle when it should have been standing on the brakes instead. Having suffered 28% inflation in 2008 - the result of a booming consumer economy and a hideously loose lending policy - the government introduced a Dong 100 trillion (US$6 billion) economic stimulus package in January that has sent the country hurtling out of control. Vietnam’s domestic credit volume grew by a massive 17% during the first half of 2009 alone, and even the official projections for the whole year are currently running at 25%-27%. Small wonder, then, that inflation is still roaring and that the currency is sliding. Many analysts regard the official inflation figure of 10% as a fiction, arguing that the figures have been massaged down and that prices are bound to surge again toward the end of the year.

簡言之，越南在本應收縮信貸的時期錯

誤選擇放開信貸。在消費經濟蓬勃發展和

寬鬆信貸政策的影響下，越南2008年通

貨膨脹率高達28％，政府於今年1月啟動

100萬億越南盾（60億美元）的經濟刺激

計劃，導致通貨膨脹失控。僅在2009年上

半年，越南國內信貸量猛增17％，官方預

計，全年信貸量增幅將達到25％－27％。

有人擔憂，越南的通貨膨脹率仍然居高不

下，貨幣持續貶值。諸多分析人士認為，

官方公佈的10％的通貨膨脹率不實，政府

刻意低估該數據，預計今年年底物價將再

次飛漲。

Unsurprisingly, foreigners are rattled by this prospect. Total foreign direct investment (FDI) disbursements into Vietnam fell by 22.5% in the first seven months of 2009 to just US$4 billion,

according to the Australian-based Intellasia news agency. More shocking, though, was that new forward FDI commitments collapsed by 77%.境外投資人對這種前景憂心忡忡，令人

毫不意外。據澳洲 Intellasia 通訊社報

道，2009年前7個月，越南的外商直接投資

（FDI）下降22.5％，僅為40億美元。而

更令人震驚的是，新外商直接投資意向急

跌77％。

This would be a problem in any year, but it’s a complete disaster in 2009 when the Finance Ministry is still trying to raise US$45 billion of new foreign investment to help fund a US$150 billion development programme. Without that development programme, roads won’t be built, electricity won’t be generated, and both production and export potential will suffer. Vietnam’s government will need to act decisively if the whole programme is not to be derailed.在任何年份，這種狀況都是嚴重問題，

而在2009年很可能成為一場真正的災難，

因為越南財政部仍在努力吸引450億美元的

新外商投資，為1500億美元的發展計劃提

供資金。如果這些發展計劃無法實施，將

無法修建道路，無法發電，生產和出口均

會受到重挫。要想確保計劃順利實施，越

南政府必須採取果斷措施。

Laos Prefers Deregulation老撾更傾向於放寬管制

Laos, on the other hand, seems to be managing at least some of these things rather better. GDP grew by a healthy 7.1% during

the first half of 2009, according to the Vientiane Times. But, like Vietnam, Laos is still struggling to keep its inflation levels down - not because of burgeoning consumer demand, but because of the rising cost of essential imports - notably oil, foodstuffs and transport equipment. Current estimates of price inflation in Laos are around 8.5%, which would be slightly less than in 2008. But it’s interesting that even these elevated levels of inflation have not yet forced the central bank into devaluing the managed-float currency: instead, the kip’s current rate of 8,670 to the US dollar compares rather favourably with a rate of 8,830 in September 2008 and a significantly weaker 10,823 in September 2005.


Economy 17

Vietnam has been stepping on the throttle when it should have been standing on the brakes instead

Nguyen Minh Triet President of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam


Economy18

(Source: oanda.com)另一方面，老撾在上述部分方面的管理

措施似乎更為得當。據《萬向時報》報

道，老撾2009年上半年 GDP 健康增長7.1

％。但與越南不同的是，老撾正努力將通

貨膨脹控制在較低水平，原因並不在於消

費需求激增，而在於基礎進口商品成本上

漲，其中石油，食品和運輸設備的價格增

長尤其顯著。老撾目前的價格通脹約為8.5

％，較之2008年略低。但有意思的是，在

通脹率達到高位的情況下，老撾中央銀行

仍未使政府管制的老撾貨幣貶值：相反，

基普對美元的匯率為8,670：1，而2008年

9月的匯率為8,830：1，2005年9月曾低至

10,823：1（資訊來源：oanda.com）。

This is not to say that everything is well with the economy. Prime Minister Bouasone Bouphavanh acknowledged in August that achieving the planned 7.5% economic growth in 2009/2010 will be more difficult than expected, thanks to the difficult international economic climate. That might be putting it rather mildly. 這並不意味著老撾經濟一切良好。老撾

總理 Bouasone Bouphavanh 今年8月表

示，受嚴峻國際經濟環境的影響，於2009

／2010年經濟增長實現7.5％的目標難度超

出預期。這實在是一種委婉的說法。

For more than a decade, Laos has recognised that its best hope of developing its poor infrastructure is to build on its favourable trade relations with Vietnam, Australia, Thailand and the United States. But in some respects it’s

working harder than Vietnam on the task of attracting capital. 十多年來，老撾一致認為，與越南，澳

洲，泰國和美國建立互惠貿易關係是發展

其薄弱基礎設施的最佳途徑。在吸引外資

方面，老撾付出的努力甚至超出越南。

Unlike Vietnam, which limits foreigners to 30% control of most businesses, Laos allows them 100% ownership - although foreigners need government approval to get into tourism, heavy machinery operations, forestry or rice farming. (They are also barred completely from banking, which is almost entirely state-run.) Generally, the FDI procedures have recently been liberalised so that local authorities and investment zones can act on their own decentralised initiative. And the government is also

introducing tax breaks of up to 10 years for FDI investors, while also speeding up the approvals process to bring in more foreign investment.越南將多數行業的外資控股比例限制在

30％以下，老撾與之不同，允許外資100％

控股，但外資進入旅遊，重型機械製造，

林業或大米種植業須得到政府審批（老撾

完全禁止外資涉足銀行業，老撾銀行業幾

乎全由國家經營）。就總體而言，老撾近

期的外商直接投資審批流程有所放寬，地

方政府和投資特區可按照自己的計劃吸引

外資。老撾政府還為外國直接投資人提供

長達10年的稅收優惠，同時加速審批流

程，以便吸引更多外國投資。

So far, so good. But the problem is that, at present, the bulk of the foreign investment is coming from Vietnam - which of course has problems of its own. Vietnamese companies ploughed $812 million into the economy during 2008, making Laos its biggest foreign investment client. The Vietnamese investments centre mainly on mining, hydro-electric power and wood processing operations. But can they still be afforded next year if things remain tough in Vietnam’s own economy? That’s a tough question. And unfortunately, Laos has a lot riding on the answer.老撾的經濟發展目前形勢尚佳。但問題

在於，目前大量外國投資來自越南，這些

投資人難免自身問題重重。2008年，越

南企業向老撾投資8.12億美元，老撾成

為越南最大的境外投資目的地。越南企業

主要投資於礦業，水電和木材加工項目。

假如越南經濟持續惡化，明年是否還會有

資金注入老撾呢？這個問題很難回答。不

幸的是，問題的答案與老撾的經濟發展息

息相關。|AT|

Luang Prabang Markt, Laos

Traffic in Saigon, Vietnam

The

OFWPhenomenonPart II of III: The Philippines’ Triad of Dollar Earning-Industries

In the last Issue It was emphasIzed that the impact of Philippines’ triad of Dollar Earning-Industries of the Philippines cannot, and should not, be understated. Apart from thwarting what otherwise could have been negative growth during the peak of global financial crisis in the past year, the influx of the “almighty” US$ has kept the exchange rate of the peso to the dollar steady at between 48 and 49 pesos to the dollar, a huge factor in the country being able to service its foreign debt.

上一系列著重講述了菲律賓創匯「三駕馬

車」對菲國的影響—不容低估，亦不應低

估。除了在去年全球金融危機谷底之時有

效阻止可能出現的負增長外，「無所不能」

的美元的流入將比索兌美元匯率穩穩維持

在48到49比索之間，成為菲國得以償還外

債的重要因素之一。

In the meantime in August 2009 the current administration announced that the country will be operating on a budget deficit of about 250 billion pesos (US$ 5.1 billion) against an annual budget of P1.5 trillion (US$ 30.6 billion) in 2010. Even as such deficit spending might be considered necessary because it constitutes pump-priming initiatives that are imperative to spawn crucial growth and job-stimulating projects at this point in time, the need

to keep increasing the influx of US$ remains an economic priority. Simply consider that approximately 30% of next year’s

annual budget will be utilized exclusively for servicing foreign debt – the less US$ the government has to buy externally (as opposed to gaining on the FOREX from the naturally incoming variety), the better.

同時，2009年8月，現屆政府宣佈菲國財

政赤字約為2,500億比索（51億美元），而

2010年年度預算為1.5萬億比索（306億

美元）。這些赤字性支出是政府救市方案的

根本，時下對促進決定性的增長及就業促

進項目而言不可或缺，實屬必要，但保持

美元流入量的不斷增長依然是經濟工作的

重點。只要想到明年的預算中有近30%將完

全用於償還外債，那麼政府向外購買的美

元（不同於自然流入情形的外匯收入）越

少越好。

In this edition, the overseas Foreign workers (OFWs) factor is the topic of

「外勞」現象第2/3部：菲律賓創匯三駕馬車

作者/by Bert Olbes


Economy 19

the less US$ the government has to buy externally (as opposed to gaining on the ForEX from the naturally incoming variety), the better...

interest for such US$ generation within the country. It is a phenomenon born of a confluence of several factors, not the least of which is acutely sociological in nature because it relates to the Filipino’s innate disposition to provide massive assistance – on a continuous, even lifetime basis – not just to their immediate families, but to their extended ones as well. It is not unusual for a single OFW to be supporting 10 to 20 family members extending to grandparents, cousins, nephews and in-laws. In fact the more rural the area or province the OFW hails from, the greater the number of beneficiaries, sometimes reaching as many as 30 or more.本文將重點討論菲國的一大美匯來源—

海外勞工（下稱「外勞」）。外勞現象是

多種因素共同作用的結果，其本質與社會

文化不無關係，因為菲律賓人骨子裏就有

接濟家人的天性，而且是長期甚至是終身

接濟，受接濟的不僅有他們的直系親屬，

還包括旁系親屬。一位外勞供養10到20位

家人的情況絕非罕見，從祖父母，堂兄妹

到侄甥輩，岳父母，全數負擔。實際上外

勞出口地區或省市越靠近鄉村，惠及人

口越多，有時甚至達到30人或更多。

Consider that the Philippine’s population is presently at 89 million. Concurrently, the country boasts of

9 million Overseas Foreign Workers (OFWs) who, by the time 2009 comes to a conclusion, will have sent back to

their home country a total of over US$17 billion and change,

an increase of very close to 3% over last year’s

remittances of US$ 16.4 billion. In effect, this is easily the king of the aforementioned triad of dollar earners. 菲律賓人口現為8,900

萬，而該國卻擁有900萬海

外勞工（外勞）人，到2009

年底他們將向自己的祖國匯回合共

170余億美元，較去年的164億美元增長近

3%。因此，外勞輕鬆拿下創匯三駕馬車中

的領頭旗手位置。

And these figures do not include remittances from those who have recently (and on a continuous basis) become citizens of the countries they have been working in, for they are no longer considered Filipino OFWs, even as they have by no means curtailed their supporting ways.這些數據還不包括近期成為其務工國家

公民之人員的匯款（這種務工移民潮流

方興未艾），即便他們的支援方式毫無差

別，但已不能被稱為菲國外勞。

A Major Factor of OFW Resources外勞資源的重要成因

Significantly fueling this is the stark reality that the OFW is now a genuinely global work force, with Filipinos working in every country of world. On the other hand, there is an ever-increasing number who are reaching retirement age after 20 or 30 years of working abroad and who, with dollars in tow, are returning to their roots to bask in their retirement years. 外勞現已成為名副其實的環球工作大

軍，菲律賓工人的腳步遍佈世上每一個國

家，這一不容爭辯的事實令上述勢頭愈演

愈烈。但另一方面，越來越多的菲律賓人

已屆退休之年，他們在海外工作二三十年

後帶著辛苦一生的積蓄葉落歸根，回國頤

養天年。

No matter what citizenship of what other country they had assumed during their productive working years, they are coming back in droves. In advance of their repatriation, they are sending back hordes of “greenery” to buy parcels of land and build retirement homes. In consequence the local construction industry has, via the resulting laws of supply and demand, benefited to the extent that real estate projects – from low cost to high end – are being driven by at least 30% foreign income. A glowing case in point is Ayala Land, by far the biggest land and housing developer in the Philippines, which has now fully immersed itself in massive low-cost housing projects, whereas in the past it had been associated exclusively with developing luxurious living properties. 無論在辛勤工作的歲月中取得了哪國國

籍，最終他們都會倦鳥歸巢。回國之前，

他們寄回成堆的「綠票子」，買田置地，

修建安身之所。因此，在供求規律的作用

下，當地建築業大獲其利。面對至少有三

成外匯收入的市場，不論定位高低，房地

產各領域均得到全面發展。菲律賓最大的

房地產開發商Ayala Land就是典型例證，


Economy20

in advance of their repatriation, they are sending back hordes of “greenery” to buy parcels of land and build retirement homes. in consequence the local construction industry has...benefited

這個過去只參與豪華居住物業開發的企

業，現正全情投入低成本集合房產項目。

So Who are these OFWs?外勞的構成

So what exactly is the composition of OFWs? The range, scope and levels of qualifications are from as high as one can imagine, to as “low” as one can equally conceive of.那麼這些外勞的構成情況究竟如何？

其從業資格的範圍，廣度及水平有高有

低，差距懸殊。

The medical field is only one area, albeit a major one, that represents the highest echelon of OFWs – from MD Specialists to nurses handling transplant divisions of highly prestigious hospitals such as that of Mt. Sinai in New York. There are Filipino engineers at the U.S. National Aeronautical & Space Administration (NASA) facilities in both Houston and Cape Canaveral in Florida. As of this writing there were 5,000 newly-opened positions for nurses and teachers in the UK. And how about Executive Chefs in Tanzania, Africa, and the White House (Cristeta Comeford) who herself was once an OFW. 醫療領域就是其中一個主要領域，處於

外勞梯隊的最高層，當中不乏在紐約西柰

山醫院等聲名遠播的醫院移植科工作的

醫學專家及護士。美國國家航空航天局

（NASA）的休斯敦及佛羅里達卡納維拉爾

角基地亦可見菲律賓工程師的身影。本文

撰寫之際，英國又新增5,000個醫生及教

師職位空缺。不少菲國外勞在坦桑尼亞，

非洲擔任行政主廚，而白宮的行政主廚科

默福德就曾經是外勞。

The seaman and merchant marine industry of the Philippines is one of the most developed in the world, which is

not particularly difficult to grasp in light of the seafaring ways of Filipinos who subsist on an archipelago with a coastline totaling more than 35,000 kilometers in length. It may seem unfathomable that fully 24% of all foreign seamen employed worldwide are Filipinos. Based on statistics from the Philippine embassy in Athens, for instance, fully 70% of all Filipinos employed in Greece are sea-based, while the Central Bank of the Philippines reported that in the first 7 months of 2009, US$ remittances from Greece expe rienced a 52% increase over the same period in 2008. Another report indicated that 18 out of 19 Marine First Engineers of crew and supply boats negotiating the Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) routes to offshore oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico off the Bay of Campeche in the Yucatan Peninsula were Filipinos.菲律賓是世界上海員及商船業最發達的

國家之一，這並不難理解，因為菲律賓的

海岸線全長超過35,000公里，菲律賓人過

著靠海吃海的生活，航海經驗豐富。但全

球受僱的外籍海員中有24%來自菲律賓的事

實還是有點匪夷所思。例如，據菲律賓駐

雅典大使館數據顯示，希臘僱傭的所有菲

律賓勞工中有70%從事與海洋有關的工作，

而菲律賓央行報告稱，2009年

頭七個月來自希臘的美元匯款

比去年同期增長52%。另一份

報告顯示，在經墨西哥國家石

油公司（PEMEX）航線到墨西

哥灣邊緣尤卡坦半島坎佩切灣

的離岸鑽井平台的聯絡補給船

中，每19位艦隊一級工程師中

就有18個是菲律賓人。

In more general terms, the middle tiers of OFWs include Marketing Managers,

Product/Brand Advertising Executives, Planning Engineers and Chief Accountants (in North Africa, no less). In fact, there are boom truck operators in Madagascar, Production Managers and Master Electricians and Welders in West Africa, Electronic Engineers in Uganda. There are Sous Chefs in Ghana, as well as QC Inspectors, Piping Supervisors and foremen, workplace safety officers, warehousemen and toolkeepers and iron workers all over the world.人數更多，處於外勞中間層級的是市場

經理，產品／品牌廣告專員，規劃工程師


Economy 21

it may seem unfathomable that fully 24% of all foreign seamen employed worldwide are Filipinos

White House Exec-Chief, Cristeta Comeford

及總會計師（依然是就北非而言）。實際

上，還有馬達加斯加的隨車起重機操作

員，西非的製作經理，高級電工及焊工，

烏干達的電子工程師，加納的副總廚，

以及遍佈世界各地的質檢人員，管道主管

及領班，工作場所安全主管，倉庫管理

員，工具管理員及鋼鐵工人。

And let’s not forget licensed and legally employed international Filipino caregivers; they were the first ever to legally penetrate the Japanese workplace. Prior to then, such delicate tasks in the “Land of the Rising Sun” were reserved exclusively for Japanese citizens. Not that the Philippines and its people have

a complete monopoly on being sensitive to seniors, but there’s simply no denying that it is a major trait of Filipinos.別忘了菲律賓還有獲得國際公認可以在

世界各地合法打工的菲傭，他們是最先合

法進入日本勞動市場的群體，在此之前，

這樣的工作在日本都只留給本國國民。

對長輩的體貼關懷並非菲律賓民族的專

利，但不可否認這確實是菲律賓人的寶

貴品質。

Domestic but Ambitious只掃一屋，心系天下

This is not to mention the hundreds and hundreds of thousands, no, make that millions of Filipino domestic workers who proliferate planet earth. While this is not the most “glamorous” of professions, many who enthusiastically grab at such positions are in reality college graduates who use such opportunity as stepping stones to attain positions more in line with the universities studies they had completed. In fact, Hong Kong, less than two hours flying time from Manila and now accessible from international hubs Cebu and Clark, Pampanga (Manila is

following suit) for US$ 150 or less round trip, has developed the reputation of having become such a staging ground for those whose final, aspired destination is Canada. 成千上萬，不對，是數以百萬計，且在世

界各地不斷增加的菲傭更自不待言。這絕非

「光鮮」的職業，但實際上滿腔熱忱抓住此

類職位的許多都是大學畢業生，他們想以此

為跳板，獲得與其學業更加對口的職位。

實際上，從馬尼拉坐飛機不到兩小時便能

到達香港，現在從國際交通樞紐宿務，克拉

克，潘帕嘉（馬尼拉也將效法）花150美元

或更少便能跑個來回，使得香港已經名聲在

外，他們將此作為臨時落腳點，終極目標則

是加拿大。

With the advent of the global financial crisis, it had been predicted that the Filipino OFW would suffer correspondingly – but the opposite seems to have taken place. Yes, there were the intermittent scares of a few dozens here or a few hundred there being laid off, but it turns out – aside from being supported by the figures relating to incoming US dollar remittances themselves – that the opposite is true. 隨著全球金融危機的到來，曾有預計稱菲


Economy22

律賓外勞將相應受到衝擊，但事實看來正好

相反。確實是不時有幾十或數百名工人下

崗，間或引發恐慌，但其結果—拋開美元匯

款相關數據的支撐不談—恰恰相反。

And there are other reasons for the mistaken prediction. One relates to costs and the US$ itself. Let’s say an employer in Kuwait had two highly experienced crane operators and was forced to lay off one of them. One happened to be, say, a Bulgarian making US$ 1,400 and the other a Filipino making US$ 900. Which one would he lay off? The point that’s being made here is that the effect of the global financial crises on the Filipino OFW may be the opposite – in favor of Filipino OFWs. Cheaper in price and much more naturally fluent in English, the choice becomes a no brainer. And these criteria can actually have been applicable across all employment tier levels. In other words, assuming equal skills, let go of the more expensive counterpart and retain the one who also happen to better understand the English-speaking foreman or supervisor. 人們之所以作出錯誤預測還有其他原

因，其中之一便是成本與美元。舉例而

言，科威特的一位僱主有兩名經驗豐富的

起重機操作員，需要辭退其中一名。比方

說一名是保加利亞人，月薪1,400美元，而

另一名則是菲律賓人，月薪900美元。他會

辭退哪一個呢？本故事的用意是要說明全

球金融危機對菲律賓外勞的影響可能是反

方向的—菲律賓外勞變得更吃香。更加廉

價，英文也更加流暢，根本想都不用想就

能作出選擇。這些標準適用於所有就業層

面。換言之，同等技能條件下，應該放棄

其中工錢更高者，留下能更好理解英方領

班或主管之命令的人。

Monitoring the figures of the Philippine Overseas Employment Administration (POEA), the government organization overseeing OFW opportunity, recruitment and deployment, there is a constant daily average of 25,000 openings for Filipino OFWs. This does nothing better than dispel what pundits

and so-called experts on the subject had surmised would take place to the country’s OFW industry as soon as the global financial crisis even hinted it was on its way to becoming a full blown affair.透過對菲律賓海外就業管理局（POEA）

數據的監控，政府組織注意到外勞中蘊含

的機遇，遂積極招募，展開部署，平均每

天向菲律賓外勞提供25,000個職位空缺。

這有力推翻研究該課題的所謂學者專家在

金融危機甫一出現時便對菲國外勞產業給

出的預期，並暗示該產業正在走向全盛。

The regrettable part may be that resilient, talented and hard-working Filipinos have to venture abroad – and away from their families – to pursue their careers and maintain bread-winning ways commensurate with their families’ needs. There’s always hope that one day Filipinos will be able to put their reservoir of resources to use in developing their own nation. In the meantime though, there is huge consolation that their having to leave the land and the families they love to make a living is having a significantly

positive effect on keeping the Philippines afloat.能屈能伸，智慧

過人，勤勉努力的

菲律賓人不得不背

井離鄉遠赴海外打

拼，謀得一份職業

掙錢養家，令人唏

噓感慨。人們一直

希望，有一天菲律賓人能將自己的人力資

源用於開發本國的土地。儘管如此，令人

格外欣慰的是他們離開祖國與親愛的家人

到異鄉謀生，對菲國的繁榮發展也起到重

要的推動作用。

In Part III of III of this expose, we will learn that the third of the Philippine’s triad of US$ earners, the Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) industry is fast closing the gap terms of becoming the most formidable resource of US$’s (although not number of employed). The industry’s double-digit annual increases in terms of US$ monetary revenue will give the OFW phenomenon a run for its US$ money in the not-too-distant future. 本系列之三將介紹菲律賓創匯「三駕馬

車」中的第三駕馬車：業務流程外判

（BPO）—該產業正在迎頭趕上，欲將成為

美匯的最大來源（儘管在受僱人數方面尚

不能如此）。該產業的美元收入每年以兩

位數增長，相信不久的將來便能與外勞分

庭抗禮。|AT|


Economy 23

The regrettable part may be that resilient, talented and hard-working Filipinos

have to venture abroad – and away from their families – to pursue their careers

菲律賓礦業把握黃金機遇

The World Frame 全球框架The world is always driven by ‘public

enemies’, and terrorism is currently at the top of the new world rankings. Images of insecurity are rampant, and well stirred into the hotpot of sensationalism that often fuels the international media. 「全民公敵」始終是世界發展的推動力

量，如今，恐怖主義已成為全球的頭號公

敵。不穩定因素正在全球蔓延，具有轟動

效應的恐怖事件往往成為全球媒體競相報

道的對象。

One of the darlings of this ’bad boy’ image in Asia, is the Philippines. An incident in a remote area is drip fed into a main stream event, and the knock on effects are almost catastrophic, severely dampening sentiment, and feeding the negative mindset, especially when it comes to investment and economic commitments.在亞洲地區，菲律賓的負面形象屢見報

端。偏遠地區的恐怖事件往往彙聚形成巨

大影響力，媒體的大肆報道更是公眾的緊

張情緒不斷蔓延，造成災難性的後果，對

投資和經濟發展的打擊尤為沉重。

‘9/11’definitively turned the world

Tapping Golden Opportunities

Philippine MiningBy Bruce Curran

upside down, and is to blame for this new world order.911事件的確令世界天翻地覆，世界新秩

序成為人們眼中的罪魁禍首。

The ‘Ring of Fire’ 「火山鏈」Images of insecurity are one aspect

of this country that in reality has a people friendly beyond compare. The country boasts of having more typhoons (cyclones/hurricanes) each year passing though its waters than any other single

country, with 39 reported in the Western Pacific Region in 1994. The Philippines thrives within the Pacific ‘Ring of Fire’, the active volcanic arc that sweeps up through eastern Asia and across and down the land mass bordering the eastern Pacific Ocean.不安全的形象只是菲律賓的一個側面，

其實在現實生活中，這裏的人民友善可

親。菲律賓每年颱風（暴風／颶風）過境

次數超出任何一個國家，1994年西太平

洋地區有39次颱風報道。菲律賓在太平

洋的「火山鏈」包圍下努力發展經濟，這

一活火山鏈條向北起東亞，一直貫穿東太

平洋。

These tropical islands have a total of 165 volcanoes, which create a magnificent landscape, but is a threatening backdrop, since 27 of these are classified as ‘active’. Throw in a history of earthquakes which shift land masses, and heavy tropical rains that cause life threatening mudslides and you

have a challenging environment. This jigsaw of forces has somehow moulded a people mostly poor but surprisingly happy with their simple lives of daily survival. Beneath these grass roots of human life there is a rich mineral wealth.該地區的熱帶島嶼

共有165座火山，形成無比壯麗的自然風

光，但由於27座火山被列為「活火山」，

對當地居民的危險日趨嚴重。歷史上的地

震災害經常帶來巨大破壞，熱帶暴雨往往

造成危及生命的泥石流，自然環境充滿挑

戰。在這種嚴峻的生存環境下，儘管多數

菲律賓居民十分貧窮，但始終保持樂觀心

態，生活儉樸，令人頗感意外。在當地居

民開拓的農耕區地下，則蘊藏著豐富的礦

產資源。

Philippine MiningTAPPING GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES

OCTOBER 2009

24 Resources


images of insecurity are one aspect of this country that in reality has a people friendly beyond compare

作者/by Bruce Curran

Mining 礦業It is all a question of balance in the

end, and there are pockets of resilience fed by vast opportunity, especially in the Philippines and specifically in the realm of Mining, where gifts of nature outplay the frail human element.萬事萬物自有平衡，菲律賓終於迎來難

得的經濟發展機遇，其中礦業領域的機遇

尤其突出，大自然的饋贈發揮的作用遠遠

超出人為因素。

Marshall Farris, the Principal at Ascenta Finance Corp. in Vancouver, Canada specialises in mining investments and projects. 加拿大溫哥華 Ascenta Finance Corp.

總裁 Marshall Farris 專門從事礦業投

資項目。

About the Philippines he says:“This country literally provides mining

companies with opportunities that can not be found anywhere else in the world.

It is like turning the clock back to the 1960’s (in the Philippines, large tracts of land and untapped projects can be acquired like no where else), and using today’s modern mining technologies in a highly prospective region of the word and being able to apply these technologies over vast tracks of land to discover world class sized deposits to feed the hungry metals markets in China, Korea, Japan and India.

The strategic location of the Philippines is also a great advantage.”在談及菲律賓時他

表示：

「菲律賓為礦業公司

提供的機會在全球其他

地區無人能及。

這猶如時光倒流至上世紀

60年代（在菲律賓可輕鬆得

到大片未曾開採的土地和項目，

其他地區無法比擬），我們可以借助當今最

現代的採礦科技在資源豐富的地區進行開

採，並在廣袤的土地上應用先進科技，探

明世界級礦區，滿足中國，韓國，日本和

印度對金屬的渴求。

菲律賓的地理位置亦極具戰略優勢。」

Mining projects in the Philippines are on the increase, and things have been changing for the better in recent years. International investment is a critical factor, since overheads are very high. On the ground it is Canada

and Australia that are the real driving forces, each contributing some

40% of investment in the Philippine mining industry,

with New Zealand and the British in the forefront, but not

forgetting the increasing opportunities sort by China and Japan, and even Brazilian mining has a hand in the Philippines. 菲律賓的礦業項目正保持增長態勢，近

年來情況已大有改觀。由於礦業項目投入

較高，國際投資成為重要因素。加拿大

和澳洲是兩大重要推動力量，分別為菲

律賓礦業投資貢獻近40％，新西蘭和英

國亦緊隨其後，中國和印度亦在積極把握

機遇，甚至連巴西的礦業企業都開始涉足

菲律賓。

Resources Galore 豐富資源The Philippines is one of the most

mineralised countries on earth – globally ranking 4th in Gold resources; 4th in Copper; and 5th in nickel.菲律賓是全球礦產資源最豐富的國家

之一－黃金資源位列全球第四；銅位列第

四；鎳位列第五。

There are still plenty of untapped resources, since the islands have seen little modern exploration. The country is surrounded by a plethora of rapidly developing economic powerhouses, that will increasingly key in to their voracious demand for metals.由於菲律賓的島嶼很少進行現代化開

採，這裏仍保存有大量天然資源。菲律賓

周邊的國家多處於經濟快速發展時期，對

金屬資源的旺盛需求將持續增長。


Resources 25

Gold panning in Benguet

Radical Change 快速變革The Mining Act ratified by the

Supreme Court in 2005 allows 100% Foreign Ownership in Mining Assets. This is all very well, but local advisors are adamant that it is prudent for foreign companies to have at least a 10% Filipino involvement, which will give access to the ‘local culture’ and make a significant difference in successful ongoing opera tions. Exploration permits may also be 100% Foreign owned.2005年，菲律

賓最高法院通過

礦業法案，允許

境外投資人持有

菲律賓礦山資產

100％的股權。此

項法案對促進菲

律賓礦業發展無疑具有積極作用，但本地

專家堅持認為，外國公司允許菲律賓企業

參股至少10％是明智的做法，這樣可幫助

外國公司了解「本地文化」，更有助於項

目獲得持續成功。在勘探業務方面，該法

案亦允許境外投資人100％持股。

In the final analysis, all mining statistics are improving as taxation is dropping It is particularly noted that the Philippines has an attractive structure of taxation incentives and guarantees repatriation of the earnings and the capital of foreign investors.最後的行業分析顯示，由於稅率下降，所

有礦業項目的業績均有所改善。尤其值得注

意的是，菲律賓制定極具吸引力的稅收激勵

體制，為境外投資人贏取回報提供保證。

The GPV (Gross Production Value) of Mining in 2003 was Pesos 41.1 billion (US$856 million), which more than doubled by 2007 to Pesos 97.4 (US$ 2.1 billion)billion. The number of operating metallic mines in 2003 was 14, increasing to 24 by 2007. These are radical CHANGES, and the numbers are still rising.2003年，菲律賓礦業的 GPV（總產值）

為411億比索（8.56億美元），2007年的

GPV 增長近一倍，達到974億比索（21億

美元）。2003年營運中的金屬礦山為14

個，2007年增至24個。菲律賓的礦業領域

正在快速變革，該數字仍在增長。

On the Ground 礦業現狀Key facts are blowing in fresh winds

and the Philippine Mining industry is poised to benefit. There is an abundance of mineral deposits with Gold at the forefront contributing some 33% of the minerals produced; Iron Ore with 12%; copper and industrial ores with 8%; Silver, Coal and Nickel with 6% each;

and Zinc 1%. The remaining 25% is in the production of small quantities of specialist minerals. 菲律賓礦業的

重要指標均體現

更好發展態勢，

將令菲律賓經濟

獲益匪淺。其中

金礦對礦業發展

貢獻最大，佔所

有礦石的約33％

；鐵礦佔12％；銅礦和工業礦石佔8％；銀

礦，煤礦和鎳礦分別佔6％；鋅礦佔1％。

其餘25％的礦石為少量的特殊礦石產品。

Add in the ingredients of a positive political environment, the strategic geographical location near the Asian metal markets, and a highly competitive

work force, and you have an industry poised to flourish. 加之菲律賓政局穩定，地理位置臨近亞

洲金屬市場，且勞動力極具競爭力，菲律

賓的礦業無疑將繁榮發展。

Cultural Forces 文化推動力The Philippines has a delicate political

arena, and is naturally conscious of sensitive social issues, but can see clearly the economic advantages of mining projects. 菲律賓的政治環境十分微妙，政府關注

敏感的社會問題，對礦業項目的經濟優勢

認識明確。

The mining projects are always in remote and isolated areas, and the potential for profit is one driving force, but seen to be actively supporting the local community is critical in the ongoing overall success of operations. 礦業項目多位於偏遠地區，潛在的獲利

前景是推動因素之一，但要想獲得業務

持續成功，積極支援本地社區發展亦十

分重要。

For example, the mining potential in Abra Province in northern Luzon is enormous, with extremely rich mineral contents in the sampled veins, but it is remote and high in the northern Cordillera Mountains. Mindoro

33%

12%8%6%

6%6%

25%GoldOther

Nickel

CoalSilver Copper

Iron


Resources26

Mining in Padcal mines in Cordillera region, Philippines

Philippine Mineral

Resources

Island, Masbate Island, Biliran Island, Dinagat Island, Palawan Island,as well as Mindanao and Luzon all are rich in minerals still waiting to be tapped.例如，阿布拉省（Abra Province）和呂宋

島（Luzon）北部的礦業潛力巨大，樣本礦脈

的礦含量極高，但該地區位置偏遠，位於北

哥迪利拉山脈（Cordillera Mountains）的

高海拔地區。名多洛島（Mindoro Island），

瑪斯貝特島（Masbate Island），比利蘭島

（Biliran Island），迪納加特島（Dinagat

Island），巴拉望島（Palawan Island），

民答那峨島（Mindanao）和呂宋島均蘊含豐

富礦藏，尚待開發。

Corporate Social Responsibility 企業社會責任

‘Social responsibility’ has become the bye word of many industries, and mining is no exception, since the companies are keenly aware that there must be a strong community partnership, and a genuine environmental and community enhancement programme. 「社會責任」已成為諸多行業不

可逾越的門檻，礦業亦不例外，礦

業企業深知，必須與社區建立密切

合作，制定切實可行的環保和社區發展

計劃。

Mining companies are keen to be seen to be ‘green’ in the modern world, especially as they are gathering up natural resources for man’s other purposes.在現代社會，礦業企業熱衷於樹立「綠

色」形象，在開採自然資源為人類服務時

尤其如此。

Essential in their schedules are their proposed Environmental Work programmes, which includes Environmental Rehabilitation programmes like Reforestation, drinking water quality improvement. In addition they promote safety and

health programmes. Medical screening, the presence of doctors, and medicine supplies are clearly a rich of benefit to the community. Factor in Education and Training schemes, support Livelihood projects and demonstrate an overall human consciousness programme, and you win a lot of friends. On the ground many individuals are given direct assistance and the environment becomes a friendly place to live. It is essential that the responsible Mining companies are seen to be all encompassing.環保工作計劃是此類企業工作日程的重

要組成部分，包括環境恢復計劃，例如森

林再造和飲用水質改善。除此之外，礦

業企業還應注重安全和健康計劃。健康體

檢，現場醫生和藥物供應定會令本地社區

獲益匪淺。如能積極參與教育和培訓計

劃，支援民生項目，並制定公眾認知提升

計劃，這樣的企業定會左右逢源。企業應

確保當地居民得到直接的援助，使環境更

適宜居住。對負責任的礦業企業而言，在

工作中涵蓋上述各方面內容尤為重要。

Part and parcel of their modern success is there involvement with infrastructure development, Skills training, health and education and employment. 參與基礎設施建設，技能培訓，健康，

教育和就業項目，亦有助於礦業企業獲得

成功。

The Local Framework 本地框架 There is a sweet smell in the air, but the

yellow brick road of Philippine Mining is full of humps and bumps that will upset the unwary. Disagreement over contracts, so-called ‘communist rebel’ attacks,

financial difficulties and local opposition has stalled some existing mining projects in the Philippines.儘管前景光明，但菲律賓礦業的發展道

路並非一片坦途，稍不留神，很可能失望

而歸。合約分歧，「共產主義叛軍」的襲

擾，融資困難和本地居民的反對都曾導致

菲律賓現有的礦業項目

受挫。

But it is all to do with balance in the end, and with metal prices still high, and overseas and

local investors remaining attracted to the mineral resources within the Philippines, things are looking good.還是萬物皆有平衡，受金屬價格持續走

高的推動，菲律賓礦業資源仍在不斷吸引

海外和本地投資人，行業發展態勢尚佳。

The Director of The Mines and GeoSciences Bureau (MGB), which issues exploration and mining permits told Reuters that “the trend is going up”. The hopeful word around the mining industry is that new investments by 2011 could be $US10 billion.It seems that the metal seams are very much in demand. The tap is definitively on in the search for the untapped resources, and all in all the Philippine Islands within the “Ring of Fire” are on the map to a fruitful and profitable mining future.負責簽發探礦和採礦許可的菲律賓礦產

和地質局（MGB）局長向路透社表示：「礦

業將繼續蓬勃發展。」預計在2011年，菲

律賓礦業規模可達100億美元，著實令人充

滿希望。目前市場對金屬礦石的需求十分

旺盛。菲律賓的天然資源即將迎來開採熱

潮，火山鏈附近的菲律賓島嶼亦將被納入

開發藍圖，迎來碩果累累且利潤豐厚的礦

業未來。|AT|


Resources 27

it is essential that the responsible mining companies are seen to be all encompassing.

Rebels cause trouble for mining projects in certain mountain areas

investing in Agribusiness in the

Philippines

among the major economIes oF the ASEAN, the Philippines suffered most from underinvestment in rural infrastructures. For over four decades after it gained its independence in 1946, leaders after leaders were so focused on inward-looking, import-substitution industrialization that agriculture was unwittingly considered the Cinderella of economic development. The result of this lopsided approach to economic progress was very high rates of rural poverty.

東盟主要經濟體中，菲律賓農村基礎設施

投資不足的情況最為嚴重。自1946年獨立

之後四十餘載，歷屆領導人均大力發展內

向型經濟，奉行出口替代工業化政策，致

使農業在經濟發展中不自覺地受到冷落。

這種不均衡經濟發展模式的後果便是農村

貧困率居高不下。

Fortunately, over the last ten years, there has been a significant shift away from capital-intensive manufacturing towards countryside development. There are visible signs that the Philippine economy is going the way of Thailand to

become an agribusiness pioneer in the East Asian region. This paradigm shift is very timely because most analysts of global trends agree that the next world crisis will be in food and water.好在過去十年，政策重心已明顯從資本

密集型的製造業轉向農村發展。可以看

到，菲律賓經濟已經走上泰國的發展之

路，將逐步成為東亞地區農業綜合企業的

改革先鋒。由於世界趨勢分析人士大多認

為下一次世界性危機將是食物及水危機，

這種根本性轉變可謂恰逢其時。

Over the last ten years, there has been a significant improvement in rural and agricultural infrastructures. There is the Philippine nautical highway

which has made it possible, for example, for agricultural products such as rice, calamansi, and bananas from the island of Mindoro to be transported more efficiently and cost-effectively, not only to the traditional urban market of Metro Manila and CALABARZON but also to the southern islands of Panay, Negros

and Mindanao. There are the modern highways that have connected Clark, Subic and Tarlac in Central Luzon and the numerous farm-to-market roads completed in Northern Mindanao and Southern Mindanao. Through the efforts of Senator Edgardo Angara and other members of his family who occupy

OCTOBER 2009

28 Business


leaders after leaders were so focused on inward-looking, import-substitution industrialization that agriculture was unwittingly considered the Cinderella of economic development

作者/by Dr. Bernardo M. Villegas

菲律賓農業綜合企業投資前景看好

government positions, the historically depressed province of Aurora is being endowed with better roads, post-harvest facilities and seaports.過去十年，農村和農業基礎設施已有顯

著改善。菲律賓的「水上高速」不僅能將

大米，柑橘，香蕉等農產品從明多洛島迅

速輸送至馬尼拉及甲拉巴鬆等傳統城市市

場，還能遠抵班乃，內格羅斯及棉蘭老等

南部島區，效率更高，成本更低。現代化

高速公路將克拉克，蘇北克與中呂宋的打

拉連接起來，貫通農場與市場的公路在北

棉蘭老與南棉蘭老縱橫交錯。在安賈拉省

長及其同在政府擔任要職的其他家族成員

的努力下，曾經的貧困省份奧羅拉亦建起

了完備的公路，收後加工設施及海港。

Much more has to be done in the next ten years to address the problem of rural poverty. But there are already clear signs of rural dwellers getting richer, thanks to improved infrastructures that are enabling them to benefit from what is known as agribusiness. It is in agribusiness that there is no conflict between agriculture and industry. In agribusiness the two are symbiotic and reinforce the strengths of one another. Agribusiness comprises farming, post-harvest technology, food processing or manufacturing, wholesaling, and retailing. Although it is not limited to food products, since it may also involve the production of agricultural commodities for biofuels, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals, agribusiness is mainly involved in bringing food from the farm to the

plate. It can also encompass a large share of industry, which includes construction, public utility, and manufacturing.要解決農村貧困問題，未來十年還有更

多事情要做。然而隨著基礎設施的完善，

農民可以依靠所謂的農業綜合企業致富，

許多跡象明確顯示農民的富裕程度逐漸

提高。農業綜合企業化解了工業與農業之

間的矛盾，兩者共同發展，相互促進。農業

綜合企業包括耕種，收後技術，食品加工或

製造，批發及零售等一系列環節。農業

綜合企業並不局限於食品，還可能

涉及生物燃料，藥品，化供製品

等農業商品，但其主要業務還

是將食品從農場送上餐桌。它

涵蓋多種行業，包括建築，公

用事業及製造業。

In the past, because of the utter neglect of rural infrastructures, the products from Filipino farmers were extremely high-cost because of both low productivity at the farm level and prohibitive transport and distribution costs. That is why, it was very difficult to industrialize the food industry because of the high cost of raw materials. In fact, most of the large food manufacturing enterprises had to import their raw materials. However, with improved rural infrastructures, there is now a proliferation of businesses processing food products for both the local and export markets. The country has gone beyond just exporting coconut oil and raw sugar. There are both large and small

enterprises that make money selling food products manufactured from the raw materials that the Filipino farmers grow. An outstanding example can be found in the province of Bulacan where the Tatak Bulacan brand can be found in beautifully packaged polvorones, pastillas de leche, peanut brittle, buko pie and numerous Filipino delicacies that can now be found in supermarkets both here and abroad. Thanks to the technical help from the Department of Science and Technology, these traditional food items are now better packaged so that it will be a matter of time before the Philippines can compete with similar products from Thailand, whose entrepreneurs have had a headstart because of the much earlier support that they got from their Government that gave the highest priority to agricultural development in the last century.過去由於對農村基礎設施的完全忽

視，來自菲律賓的農產品成本極高，

原因有二：農場產量低；運輸及分銷成本

令人望而卻步。食品業難以實現工業化

就是因為原材料價格過高。實際上多數

大型食品加工企業都不得不依靠進口。

但隨著農村基礎設施的完善，現在面向

國內外市場的食品加工企業不斷湧現。菲

國已不再只出口椰子油及原糖。採

用菲律賓農民種植的原材料加

工食品的大小企業均能從中

獲利。布拉幹省的「Tatak

Bulacan」就是一個很好的

例子，該品牌出產波波羅


Business 29

In the past, products from Filipino farmers were extremely high-cost because of both low productivity at the farm level and prohibitive transport and distribution costs.

Private institutions have helped local farmers increase their yield through new technologies

妮，牛奶糖，花生糖，椰肉派及各式菲國

小吃，包裝精美，國內外超市均有銷售。

得益於科技部的技術支持，如今這些傳統

食品的包裝更加精良，相信遲早可與泰國

的同類產品一較高下。泰國政府在上世紀

便將農業發展作為重中之重，泰國農企也

因較早獲得政府扶持而佔儘先機。

Thanks to their proximity to the very lucrative market of more than 10 million consumers in the Metro Manila region, many farmers in Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, and Quezon are able to significantly improve their meager incomes from such traditional crops as rice, coconut and sugar by growing high-value crops that can produce net earnings of P500,000 to Pl,000,000 per hectare of land. In addition to reasonably good roads, irrigation and post-harvest facilities in these provinces, the farmers are ably assisted by private seed companies like West Seed and Harbest with the best technology from Europe and Taiwan.

During the early phase of the rise of Taiwan from poverty to richness, the Taiwanese assigned the highest priority to endowing their small farmers with the rural infrastructures they needed to make money on their respective farms. Now that Taiwan is phasing out a lot of its agriculture because of the scarcity of both land and labor, Harbest is bringing to the Philippines the Taiwanese technology of growing such profitable crops as sweet papaya, ampalaya, eggplant, lettuce, etc. In Cavite, there is the traditional small and

very sweet pineapple that small farmers are growing. In both Batangas and Cavite, companies like Nestle are helping small farmer return to the coffee growing that these provinces were very famous for before the Second World War.有著千萬人口的馬尼拉地區可謂是

「錢」景廣闊的消費市場，卡維特，內湖，

八打雁及昆頌的許多農民利用近水樓台之

優勢，從種植大米，椰子及糖等傳統農作

物轉向種植高附加值作物，收入情況大為

改觀，每公頃土地純收入可達50萬到l00

萬比索。這些省份除具備良好的道路，灌

溉及收後加工設施外，農民們還得到East

West Seed及Harbest等私營種子公司的協

助，接觸來自歐洲及台灣的最佳技術。在

台灣脫貧致富的早期，台灣人的首要任務

便是為小農場主提供他們所需的農村基礎

設施，幫助他們利用自己的土地創造財

富。然而當下由於土地及勞動力雙重稀

缺，台灣農業已大幅縮水，Harbest為菲國

人民帶去了種植木瓜，苦瓜，茄子，萵苣等

高利潤作物的台灣技術。卡維特的小農場

主還種植了一種傳統的超甜小菠蘿。雀巢

等公司在八打雁及卡維特幫助小農場主回

歸咖啡種植，二戰前這些省份的咖啡可是

相當聞名。

Thanks to companies like Del Monte and Dole in Mindanao, the Philippines


Business30

farmer showing produce of hybrid sweet corn seeds

from East-West Seed Co.

Pineapple is also a major export to its Northeast Asian neighbors, including Japan

PHOTOGRAPH © EAST-WEST SEED CO.

is becoming a major provider of high-value food products for China. Close to 60 percent of the bananas imported by China already comes from Mindanao. Pineapple is also a major export to its Northeast Asian neighbors, including Japan. A third fruit that has great potentials is mango, as more small and medium-scale farmers from Bataan, Zambales, Camiguin, Cebu and other mango-growing provinces improve their farm management practices. Thanks to new ways of organizing the farm workers in banana, pineapple and other plantations, the incomes of thousands of these rural dwellers are being significantly improved through their being organized as cooperatives by innovative companies like AsiaPro. Contract farm workers who used to be underemployed and lacked security of tenure are now being organized by companies like AsiaPro into workers’ cooperatives that allow full and permanent employment.

棉蘭老島的Del Monte及

Dole等公司讓菲律賓成

為中國高附加值食品

的主要供應國。中

國進口的香蕉中有

近60%來自棉蘭老

島。菠蘿也是菲

律賓向日本等東

北亞鄰國出口的

主要作物。隨著巴

丹，三描禮示，卡

米京，宿務及其他

芒果種植省份的中小

型農場主紛紛改進農場

管理模式，芒果成為最具

潛力的第三種水果。AsiaPro

等公司創造性地將農民結成合作

社，以全新方式組織香蕉，菠蘿及其他種

植園的農場工人，使成千上萬農民的收入

得到顯著改善。經過AsiaPro等公司的組

織，過去開工不足且僱傭時間缺乏保障的

農場合約工人現結成工人合作社，成為獲

得長期僱傭的全職工人。

Large distribution companies like Agrinurture, Inc. are now helping small farmers, either individually or organized as cooperatives, to sell their high-value vegetables and fruits to the supermarkets and other retail outlets. Agrinurture also lends to landowners farm inputs like seeds, fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides and contracts to purchase their produce at a guaranteed price. With improved rural infrastructures, these distribution

companies are willing to take the risks inherent to farming, thus helping to improve the incomes of farmers and farm workers. The same guarantee is also being given by large corporations like San Miguel Corporation and Nestle in the purchase of such farm products as corn, cassava, and coffee. Such arrangements link directly the farming operations with the manufacturing and supply chain sectors. Industrialization based on agricultural development would have been possible twenty or more years ago if our leaders had given first priority to investing in rural infrastructures. —For comments, my email address is [email protected], Inc.等大型分銷公司

幫助個人或合作社形式的小型農場主

將高附加值蔬果銷往超市及其他零售

攤位。Agrinurture還向土地擁有人出

借種子，肥料，殺蟲劑，除草劑等農用

物資，並簽訂合約按保底價收購產品。

農村基礎設施改善後，這些分銷公司願

意承擔種植的內在風險，因而有助提升

農場主及農場工人的收入。San Miguel

Corporation及雀巢等大型企業對於

玉米，木薯及咖啡等農產品亦提供收購保

底價。這種安排為種植與製造及供應鏈建

立起了直接聯繫。如果國家領導們早些將

投建農村基礎設施擺在第一位，以農業

發展為基礎的工業化可能會提前二十年或

更早實現。—歡迎發送電郵至本人郵箱

[email protected]發表評論。|AT|


Business 31

Close to 60 percent of the bananas imported by China already comes from Mindanao.

Business

thInkIng oF startIng or re-locatIng operations in Asia? Then you may want to know which country’s bureaucrats are likely to give your company the warmest welcome: Where is it cheaper and easier to hit the ground running and build your business up more quickly and efficiently?

想要在亞洲設點辦廠？那你得摸清哪國政府

最熱情好客：該國的啟動手續是否更簡便，

費用是否更低？能否迅速有效地創辦業務？

To compare the relative hospitality of each economy before investing, a good starting point would be to consider the thorough research that’s just been completed by the World Bank (WB) in its recently published survey of 183 economies, ‘Doing Business 2010: Reforming through Difficult Times’. 如何在投資前比較各個經濟體的好客

程度，一個很好的切入點就是參考世界

銀行近期刊發的對183個經濟體調查的完

整報告：《2010年營商環境報告：在困難

時期進行改革》。

The ‘Doing Business’ report analyzes regulations affecting the life cycle of a small to medium-size firm: from business start-up and operations, to trading across borders, paying taxes, and closure. Its ‘ease of doing business’ index ranks economies from 1 to 183 and examines procedures required by countries for various business transactions, but it does not consider the investment climate or political risk. The WB says reforms measured by its report can play an important role in enabling countries to recover from the economic crisis; and as the financial and economic crisis has become a jobs crisis in developing countries, SME growth can offer the best prospects for job creation.《營商環境報告》分析了關係到中小企

整個生命週期的監管規則：從開辦企業和

OCTOBER 2009

32 Business


作者/by Steven Lunt Thais營商寶地泰國：

經營，到跨國界貿易，納稅，乃至關閉企

業。它根據「營商容易程度」對183個經

濟體進行了排名，考查了各國對不同業務

交易的手續規定，惟未考慮投資環境或政

策風險。世行表示該報告測評了對各國走

出經濟危機起到重要作用的改革；而由於

金融及經濟危機在發展中國家引發了就業

危機，中小企才是創造就業機會最具潛力

的陣地。

“The quality of business regulation helps determine how easy it is to reorganize troubled firms to help them survive difficult times, to rebuild when demand rebounds, and to get new businesses started,” says Penelope Brook, the World Bank’s Acting Vice President for Financial and Private Sector Development. 世界銀行金融和私人部門發展代理副總

裁Penelope Brook表示：「透過測評商業

監管的質素，有助於確定以下方面的容易

程度：重組遇到困難的企業並幫助其渡過

艱難時期，在需求回升時重建業務以及開

辦新企業。」

You may not be too surprised at the WB’s findings that as consistently proactive reformers, Singapore is the world’s most business friendly economy (for the fourth consecutive year), and the rival financial hub of Hong Kong scores a prestigious medal close behind, coming in at third place in the WB’s table. (And just in case you were wondering - New Zealand takes the silver.)

世行的結論可能並不算出人意料：作為

一個堅持積極改革的國家，新加坡在營商

容易程度名次榜上拔得頭籌（連續四年蟬

聯冠軍）；而同為金融中心，其競爭對手

香港亦不甘落後，斬獲探花。（如果你在想

榜眼花落誰家，告訴你—是新西蘭。）

Following those rather more obvious champions, where is the next most business friendly contender in Asia to consider? According to the WB, that would be Thailand: the Kingdom is named as the 12th-best economy in the world for ease of doing business. The country has improved its ranking this year

by enacting further reforms to compete even more closely with the world’s leaders in opening business doors.除去這些優勢顯著的優勝者，誰是亞洲

下一個最具營商友好氛圍的國家？世行的

答案是—泰國：該國在全球經濟體營商容

易程度名次榜上位居12。泰國進一步深化

改革，拉近與全球領先國家在開門迎商方

面的距離，使得今年的名次有所提高。

“The report in 2006 ranked us 20th out of 170 countries. It woke us up to the importance of reform,” says Thossaporn Sirisamphan, secretary-general of the Office of the Public Sector Development Commission (OPDC). 公共部門發展委員會(OPDC)辦公室秘書

長Thossaporn Sirisamphan表示：「2006年

報告中，我們在170個國家裏排名20。這讓

我們意識到了改革的重要性。」

World Bank programme manager Sylvia Solf explains that the prime reason for the rise in Thailand’s ranking was the government’s effective relaxation of the regulations involved in starting a business.


Business 33

Economy Ease of Doing business rank

Starting a business

Dealing with Construction Permits

Employing workers

registering Property

Getting Credit

Protecting investors

Paying Taxes

Trading Across borders

Singapore 1 4 2 1 16 4 2 5 1

New Zealand 2 1 5 15 3 4 1 9 26

Hong Kong, China 3 18 1 6 75 4 3 3 2

United States 4 8 25 1 12 4 5 61 18

United Kingdom 5 16 16 35 23 2 10 16 16

Denmark 6 28 10 9 47 15 27 13 6

Ireland 7 9 30 27 79 15 5 6 21

Canada 8 2 29 17 35 30 5 28 38

Australia 9 3 62 1 34 4 57 47 27

Norway 10 35 65 114 8 43 20 17 9

Thailand 12 55 13 52 6 71 12 88 12

Japan 15 91 45 40 54 15 16 123 17

Korea, Rep. 19 53 23 150 71 15 73 49 8

Malaysia 23 88 109 61 86 1 4 24 35

Taiwan, China 46 29 97 153 30 71 73 92 33

Chile 49 69 66 72 42 71 41 45 56

Philippines 144 162 111 115 102 127 132 135 68

“The report in 2006 ranked us 20th out of 170 countries. it woke us up to the importance of reform,” says Thossaporn Sirisamphan

world bank’s ‘Doing Business 2010: Reforming through Difficult Times’ Top 183 Economies (Summarized)

世界銀行項目經理Sylvia Solf解釋

說，上調泰國評級的主要原因是該國政府

有效放寬了有關開辦企業的監管法規。

Integrating databases between the Commerce Ministry and other government departments has further helped to improve efficiency in various administrative areas, according to Pranee Phasipol, chief inspector-general of the Commerce Ministry. They have developed their online registration process to establish links with the Revenue Department.商務部總監察長Pranee Phasipol表

示，商務部與其他政府部門數據庫的整

合進一步提升了各行政領域的效率。他

們推出網上登記流程，可與稅務局直

接聯網。

This bureaucratic reform already implemented, together with improved teamwork and co-ordination among agencies has all helped to facilitate business, according to Thossaporn - who says Thai authorities also want to expand reform beyond the civil service to local administrations. Thossaporn稱這項業已開弓的體制改革

及各部門之間團隊協作的增強都為企業帶

來了便利，並表示泰國政府還希望將這一

國家部門的改革推廣到地方。

Despite these improvements in business registration procedures and reductions in customs clearance bureaucracy, Thailand - in common with other Asian countries - still has room for improvement, according to Kirida Bhaopichitr, senior country economist for the World Bank in Bangkok. The analyst says Thailand needs to improve its liquidation process to make it easier to close a business, as it still takes too long due to the lengthy legal process involved.世界銀行駐曼谷高級國家經濟師Kirida

Bhaopichitr認為，儘管企業註冊流程改

善，通關層級縮減，但泰國與其他亞洲國

家一樣仍有許多不足之處。作為一名分析

師，他指出泰國需要完善清算流程，簡化

破產手續，而現狀是所涉法律程序過多，

耗時太長。

Although the Kingdom scored well in

terms of property registration (ranking 6th), trading across borders (12th), and ease in dealing with construction permits (13th), the country only managed to rank 88th in the world when it comes to ease of paying taxes, and the ranking also slipped (to 71st ) for its facilities in obtaining credit.雖然泰國在財產登記（排名第6），跨國

界貿易（第12），辦理建築許可證（第13）

榜單中均有不錯名次，但在繳稅榜單中僅

列88，在信貸獲得容易程度榜單中

的名次亦有下滑（降至第71）。

Solf says that overall the rankings on ease of doing business are not as important in attracting new investors as consistency of reforms, because these reflected a

government’s continuing attempts to support

local investment through transparency.

Solf指出，與其關注營商容易程度

的綜合排名，不如將精力放在持續推進改

革，吸引新投資者之上，因為這才是政府

以透明姿態繼續支持本地投資之決心的體

現。

Thailand aims to join the perfumed circle of the world’s top-ranking 10 economies as soon as possible, so many of its organisations are striving to apply changes that will further facilitate

procedures relevant to doing business in the country.泰國矢志儘快躋身全球十強之列，國內

機構紛紛求變求新，以進一步簡化營商相

關流程。

“We strongly intend to keep making it easier to do business in Thailand through de-regulation in a bid to be one of the top 10 economies,” says Thossaporn. He could not specify when the Kingdom would meet that challenging target, saying it depended on how much progress was made in de-regulation, both here and in other economies. Thossaporn adds, “If the economic and political situation gets back on track, that will help smooth bureaucratic reform”.Thossaporn表示：「我們十分希望透過

放寬管制來提高泰國的營商容易程度，

努力打進十強。」但他沒有明確泰國何時

才能實現這一具有挑戰性的目標，只稱具

體時間取決於國內及國外雙方面的管制

放寬進程。他補充道：「如果經濟和政治

形勢重回正軌，將有助於體制改革的平

穩推進。」

And those conditions so conducive to reform have yet to stabilise. Some of Thailand’s senior business leaders recently told the annual Siam Commercial Bank conference that while they believed the Thai economy is over the worst, political turbulence may yet place a heavy burden on the pace of recovery - aside from global economic conditions.


Business34

Bangkok Thailand MBK Shopping Mall

然而這些有利於改革的因素依然動盪不

安。日前泰國的一些企業高管在泰國商

業銀行年度大會上表示，他們認為泰國

經濟已經渡過嚴冬，但除全球經濟形勢

外，政治動盪亦將成為拖累復甦步伐的一

大障礙。

Land & Houses (L&H) president Anant Asavabhokin, PTT president and chief executive Prasert Bunsumpun and Siam Cement Group president Kan Trakulhoon all said they believed the recovery would be gradual and in a “checkmark” shape. The speed will depend heavily on the government’s ability to restore confidence among investors, consumers and travellers.Land & Houses (L&H)董事長Anant

Asavabhokin，PTT 董事長兼行政總裁

Prasert Bunsumpun及Siam

Cement Group董事長Kan

Trakulhoon均表示他們認

為經濟將呈V字形逐步復

甦。但速度將主要取決於

政府能否重振投資者，消

費者及遊客的信心。

“Most importantly, Thailand’s government must restore confidence,” said Prasert.Prasert指出：「泰國

政府的當務之急就是重塑

信心。」

Anant compared the political wrangling to a school sports day that required huge energy on both sides. He is optimistic both sides are negotiating to end the conflict this year: “It cannot continue. Everyone’s exhausted. Political turbulence is now the biggest concern besides influenza,” he said. Anant將這場政治鬥爭比喻成一次全校運

動會，雙方都需要耗費巨大精力。他對雙

方將在今年透過協商結束對抗的預期十分

樂觀，他認為：「這種局面絕不能再繼續下

去了。大家已是筋疲力盡。政治不穩定現

已成為人們心中僅次於流感的最大擔憂。」

Kan believes the Thai economy will show positive growth in the fourth quarter, if the stimulus package proceeds according to plan. However, he expressed concern about the slowness of its implementation and urged the

government to relax the bidding process so the economy could benefit quickly.如經濟刺激計劃如期落實，Kan認為泰國

經濟將在第四季度錄得正增長。但他亦坦

言對執行不力心存擔憂，並敦促政府簡化

招標程序，使經濟更快受益。

Elsewhere in the East Asia and Pacific region, Indonesia was the most active reformer, rising seven places to rank 122nd this year - thanks to various reforms making it much easier and cheaper to start a business. The government also simplified the procedures needed for property

business regulation reforms into a broader competitiveness agenda. The country has eased business start-up by streamlining registration and reducing incorporation charges. Enforcing contracts through the courts has also been made easier by increasing staff and imposing stricter deadlines in litigation. 馬來西亞在世行報告中排名23，世行稱

該國把商業監管改革納入到提升競爭力的

宏觀規劃之中，是奉行長遠發展規劃的典

範。該國簡化登記手續，降低註冊費用，

使創業更加輕鬆，並增加人員及縮短訴訟

時限，方便企業透過法院強制執行合約。

Taiwan is ranked 46th and noted for easing business start-ups by abolishing minimum paid-in capital, setting

time limits for various procedures, and making it easier to pay taxes online.台灣名列46，亮點是取消最低實繳資本

規定，為多種程序設置時限及推出網上繳

稅便民政策，以此簡化企業開辦流程。

Ranking 89th, China is noted for its relaxation of trade credit restrictions in response to the economic and financial crisis, so foreign exchange authorization is no longer required.中國名列89，亮點是放寬貿易信貸限額以

應對經濟及金融危機，取消匯兌許可證。

Vietnam is ranked 93rd and noted for its inclusiveness, involving all relevant public agencies and private sector representatives to institutionalize reform by forming committees at ministerial level. It has also reduced the corporate income tax rate from 28 percent to 25 percent and implemented new customs procedures to reduce trade delays.越南名列93，亮點是廣泛動員，透過設

置部長級委員會發動所有相關公共機構及

私營部門代表貫徹改革，並將公司所得稅

稅率由28%下調至25%，推行新的報關手

續，減少貿易拖延。

Ranked 144th, the Philippines enhanced access to credit and cut the corporate income tax rate from 35 percent to 30 percent; the government has also helped companies to reorganize by regulating the receiver profession and introducing pre-packaged reorganizations.菲律賓名列144，該國放寬了信貸尺度，

將企業所得稅稅率由35%下調至30%；政府

還規範了接管人操作，引入打包重組，幫

助企業開展重組。|AT|

transfers, implemented tax reforms and strengthened disclosure requirements for related-party transactions, helping to improve investor protection rules. 在東亞及太平洋地區，印尼當屬改革

最積極的國家，今年的排名上升七位至

122—這得益於政府開展各項改革，使開辦

企業更加容易，成本更低。政府還簡化了

財產轉讓所需的手續，推行稅制改革，收

緊對關聯方交易的披露要求，完善投資者

保護法。

The WB ranks Malaysia as 23rd in its report, and cites the country as an example of an economy following a longer-term agenda of incorporating


Business 35

“Most importantly, Thailand’s government must restore confidence “

Property Market Surges

Hong Kong’s

yes, we know, chIna’s burgeoning property market is in the news again. The headline news of the moment is, of course, that Glorious Property, a Shanghai-based real estate developer, has revived its stalled plans to raise around HK$10 billion (US$ bn) on the Hong Kong market, starting in October. And we know that there’ll be plenty more stories of exactly this kind making the papers in the near future. But right now, all this pales beside the startling property news coming in from Hong Kong itself.

中國紅紅火火的樓市再次成為焦點。此刻

坊間炒得最熱的話題要屬恒盛地產，這間

總部位於上海的房地產開發商已重啟先前

擱淺的融資計劃，準備從10月份開始在香

港市場融資100億港元（美元）。相信近期

將有不少諸如此類的新聞出現在各大報刊

雜誌上。然而相比香港樓

市本身，這些新聞都只能

算是小巫見大巫。

The territory’s property scene is currently booming on the back of an unexpectedly strong economic revival.

Commercial property transactions in August 2009 were more than double the levels of a year earlier, and vacancy rates are down to just 6.7%, one of the lowest rates in Asia. The 118-storey International Commerce Center, which is still under construction, is already fully let. Meanwhile property prices in the territory have been coming back by a startling 20-25% since January.中國紅紅火火的樓市再次成為焦點。此

刻坊間炒得最熱的話題要屬恒盛地產，這

間總部位於上海的房地產開發商已重啟先

前擱淺的融資計劃，準備從10月份開始在

香港市場融資100億港元（美元）。相信近

期將有不少諸如此類的新聞出現在各大報

刊雜誌上。然而相比香港樓市本身，這些

新聞都只能算是小巫見大巫。

A Rollercoaster Ride雲霄飛車滋味雜陳

That’s the good news. But we need to agree that property ownership has been a terrifying rollercoaster experience for the city in the thirteen years since Britain returned the territory to China in January 1997. And we need to understand that many property owners are still sitting on losses even now. The 1997 handover sent Hong Kong’s property market into free fall, not just because of political uncertainties but also because of the fact that some businesses simply decamped to cheaper locations on the mainland. Not even an influx of Chinese financial business was able to make up for the over-supply of property that resulted. So

樓市再現火爆香港

OCTOBER 2009

36 Economy


Glorious Property’s recent deal with China Construction Bank for support on its projects

作者/by Michael Wilson

by 2004, at its bottom, the government’s property price index was showing a fall of 50-65% for every single sector of the property market - with the office sector especially badly hit.以上是好消息的一面。

但需要承認的是，自1997

年1月英國將香港主權交還中國之後，香

港業主經歷了13年雲霄飛車般的跌宕起

伏。時至今日，仍有許多業主掙扎在虧損

線下。「九七」回歸觸發香港樓市大崩

盤，當中既包含政治不確定因素，又有部

份企業遷往成本相對低廉的內地的影響。

即使內地金融企業蜂擁而至也無法緩解由

此造成的樓市供過於求。到2004年樓市

見底之時，港府樓價指數顯示樓市各領域

均出現50-65%的降幅，其中寫字樓所受

衝擊尤為嚴重。

Things started to improve in the years after 2004, when a slow but impressive revival, prompted by strong trade performances from China, helped to push every sector apart from residential property back up above its pre-1997 level. But the market optimism was cut brutally short by the 2008 world financial crisis, which abruptly knocked 25% off property prices and forced the cancellation of various fund launches and IPOs from property companies of every kind. And so it remained until the spring of 2009…2004年以後市道開始好轉，因與內地加

強貿易往來，香港樓市以緩慢而堅定的步

伐邁向復甦，除住宅物業外，普遍回漲

至高於1997年以前的水平。可惜好景不

長，2008年全球金

融危機瞬間便將美

夢化作噩夢。受金

融危機影響，房價

暴跌25%，眾多地產

公司紛紛取消了各

種基金發行和IPO計

劃。直至2009年春

季來臨…

An Unexpectedly Strong Rebound 強勁反彈出人意料

There can’t be many years that have started so badly and ended so well as 2009. As late as March, the property market’s consensus was still that Hong Kong had lapsed back to the depths of despair. Which wasn’t surprising, considering that the city’s economy had shrunk by 8% in the first quarter, the stock market had lost 48% during 2008, and there was not much money to be had from the banks. Optimists were thin on the ground.像2009年這樣開局很無奈，結尾很精彩

的年份並不多見。直到3月份地產界還普遍

認為香港深陷危機泥潭，回天乏術。這種

想法應在情理之中，因為香港經濟在第一

季度已萎縮8%，2008年股市腰斬48%，而銀

行亦是泥菩薩過江自身難保。一時間悲觀

的烏雲遮天蔽日。

So what’s changed now? Partly, as we’ve said, it’s that Hong Kong’s economy is recovering much faster than many had expected. Second-quarter output was up by 3.3% on the previous

quarter - not least because of the government’s HK$88 billion (US$11 billion) stimulus package, which is set to pump the equivalent to 5.2% of gross domestic product back into the market. Hong Kong’s exports rose by 11% during the quarter (and will doubtless improve yet again in the second half ), and consumer spending was up by 4%.既然如此，原因何在？如前所述，這部

份歸因於香港經濟復甦快於預期。第二季

度產出較上一季度增長3.3%—相當重要

的一個原因就是港府880億港元（110億

美元）的經濟刺激計劃，根據該計劃，將

有相當於本地生產總值5.2%的資金注入市

場。當季香港出口上升11%（下半年勢必還

會持續好轉），消費開支增長4%。

Partly, of course, the property surge is a direct result of the stock market’s 55% growth in 2009. Partly it’s due to an energetic central banking policy which has bolstered the Hong Kong dollar and has kept the foreigners’ money coming in. But partly it’s also that there’s been


Economy 37

Through Hong Kong’s HK$88 billion Stimulus Package, its exports rose by 11% during the quarter, and consumer spending was up by 4%

The 1997 handover by Britain of Hong Kong sent it’s property market into free fall

plenty of cheap money available. Some of that money has effectively come from mainland China, where banks spent the first half of 2009 lending vast amounts of money to Chinese borrowers - some of whom used it to buy prestige properties in Hong Kong. The lending taps have been turned off now, but the beneficial effects still look set to last.其次，樓市的此番上漲當然是直接受

益於2009年港股飆升55%。

再者，穩定港元，放寬

外資流入限制的央

行政策亦功不可

沒。再其次就是

豐富的低息貸款

資源，而其中有

部份資金實際

上是來自中國

內地。2009年上

半年，內地銀行

在國內發放巨額貸

款，部份人用這筆錢

在香港置業購房。雖然銀

行現已收緊銀根，但其所帶來的利好影

響卻仍在延續。

Land Registry statistics for August showed that residential property sales in Hong Kong increased by a staggering 113%, when measured against the levels of a year earlier, and that the value of the month’s transactions had nearly trebled to HK$41 billion. Industry analysts have been claiming that the sector’s capital values have gained 25%

since last December (Sources: Centa-City Leading Index, Global Property Guide), of which 8.1% occurred in the second quarter of 2009. Government figures confirm that the government residential index is now at its highest level since 1998.土地註冊處8月統計數字顯示，香港住

宅物業銷售額較上年激增113%，月成交

量近增三倍，達410億港元。行業分析師

稱，自上年12月以來，該領域的資本值

已增長25%（資料來源：中原城市領先指

數，環球房地產指南），其中8.1%產生於

2009年第二季度。政府數據表明，政府住

宅指數現已達致1998年以來的最高水平。

The Kai Tak Development啟德機場轉型重生

What’s next for the Hong Kong property scene? Most important, perhaps, is the proposed redevelopment of the 328-hectare Kai Tak airport complex, which has been ten years in the making and which is currently scheduled to include housing, hotel developments, government offices, a sports complex, two cruise liner terminals and a monorail link. The plans have been revamped many times, not least because of environmental

concerns, but work finally started in July on the infrastructure - the roads, the bridges and so forth. Some HK$80 billion has been budgeted for the first two stages, between now and 2016, and a further HK$22 billion for stage three, to be completed by 2021. 接下來香港樓市是何景象？首要看點當

屬佔地328公頃的啟德機場客運大樓重新

發展計劃。該計劃已醞釀十年之久，目前

規劃打算涵蓋住宅，酒店，政府辦公場

所，以及一座體育場，兩個郵輪碼頭，還

有一條單軌鐵路。該計劃因環境等多方因

素幾易其稿，但最終於7月份動工興建路

橋等基礎設施。前兩期工程將於2016年完

工，預計耗資800億港元，第三階段還需

220億港元，將於2021年完工。

That’s going to create a lot of new business for a property and construction sector that’s been feeling the pinch recently. And it also answers at least some of the worries from those who fear that Beijing might eventually try to move some of Hong Kong’s financial functions to an enlarged Global Financial Centre in the capital itself. As a port, as a tourism centre, and as a good place to live, Hong Kong’s future is assured, whatever happens.該計劃對近期不太景氣的地產和建築行業

而言無疑是雪中送炭，亦可打消某些人心中

的些許顧慮，以免他們擔心北京有朝一日把

香港的部份金融功能，轉移到一個圍繞首都

打造的更大的全球金融中心。不論如何，作

為港口之城，觀光之城，宜居之城，香港的

未來必定光明無限！|AT|


Economy38

Kai Tai airport since its closure in 1997 has been in constant construction ever since

As a port, as a tourism centre, and as a good place to live, Hong Kong’s future is assured, whatever happens.

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Chinese renewable Energy MarketNew Policy Accelerates the Fast Developing

中國可再生能源市場發展新政策助推

作者/by Kelly Yang

OCTOBER 2009

40 Sustainable Energy


as tradItIonal sources oF energy become unsustainable and the energy industry struggles to recover from the present economic downturn, development of renewable energy has become an inevitable choice worldwide.

由於傳統能源缺乏可持續性，而能源行業

又亟待從當前的經濟下滑中復甦，因此

發展可再生能源就成了全球各國的必

然選擇。

Presently, the economic crisis still exists all over the world. The original model of economic growth has already been proved ineffective. Hence, the focus is more on the progress of science and technology, in order to revive the economy. The research

and development of the renewable sources of energy through technological revolution for is necessary for a countries` economic restoration as well as for it to occupy a favorable position in the new international labor system division of the future.目前，經濟危機的陰霾仍籠罩全球，原

有的經濟增長模式已不再適用，要想重振

經濟，就必須更加注重科技的發展。通過

技術革命研發可再生能源，既可有力推動

國家經濟的復甦，亦有助國家在未來新的

國際分工格局中佔據主動。

Moreover, in the recently-concluded summit of G8, all the countries agreed to reduce the industrial emission by 80.0 percent before 2050, and the increase of the average temperature to be no

more than 2 degree Celsius. Therefore, the consensus in the environment protection field has provided a policy support for the development of the renewable energy sector. 不久前閉幕的G8峰會上，各國同意在

2050年之前將工業廢氣排放量減少80%，

以及將平均氣溫升幅控制在兩攝氏度

G8 in L’Aquila, Italy

Chinese renewable Energy Market


Sustianable Energy 41

以內。各國在環境保護領域達成的共識，

為可再生能源行業的發展提供了政策保障。

Overall, majority of the renewable energy markets are still in infancy period. Policy support is particularly a significant driving force for them. In July 21, 2009, the Chinese Government announced the official start of the ‘GoldenSun Demonstration Project’, which means that the Government arranges funds to support the application of various types of photovoltaic power generation technology. Previously, the Chinese Government has decided to invest around $65.2 million in the renewable energy sector before 2020, in order to improve the proportion of the renewable energy in the total national energy consumption up to 15.0 percent, from the 8.0 percent share at present.整體而言，可再生能源市場普遍處於萌芽

階段，所以政策扶持是其發展的重要推動

力。2009年7月21日，中國政府宣佈正式啟

動「金太陽示範工程」，政府將撥款推動各

類光伏發電技術的應用。此前，中國政府

已決定在2020年前向可再生能源行業投資約

6,520萬美元，將可再生能源在全國能源總

消耗量中的比重由當前的8%提高到15%。

During the past few years, the Chinese photovoltaic industry has experienced a high growth. In 2007, China has become the largest supplier of photovoltaic components in the world. However, the domestic photovoltaic market is still small and approximately 98.0 percent photovoltaic products are used for export. The installed capacity of the solar power plants is expected to reach to 20.0 GW in 2020 driven by the newly announced ‘Renewable Energy Industry Revitalization Plan’. The installed capacity has been improved 12.5 times compared with the previous plan.過去數年，中國的光伏產業高速增長，

2007年一躍成為全球最大的光伏組件供

應國。遺憾的是，國內光伏市場的規模依

然偏小，大約98%的光伏產品都銷往

國外。根據最近出台的「可再生能源振

興計劃」，到2020年，太陽能發電廠的裝

機容量要達到20 GW，跟之前的計劃相比

增加了12.5倍。

The implementation period of the ‘GoldenSun Demonstration Project’ is from 2009 to 2011. The financial subsidies cover infrastructure construc-tion, key technology industri alization,

projects for resolving the power shortage issue in remote area, and other aspects. According to the plan, the installed capacity of individual project is likely to be more than 300 KWp and the construction period is likely to be less than one year. Moreover,

Frost & Sullivan, the Growth Partnership Company, enables clients to accelerate growth and achieve best in class positions in growth, innovation and leadership. The company’s Growth Partnership Service provides the CEO and the CEO’s Growth Team with disciplined research and best practice models to drive the generation, evaluation and implementation of powerful growth strategies. Frost & Sullivan leverages over 45 years of experience in partnering with Global 1000 companies, emerging businesses and the investment community from 31 offices on six continents. To join our Growth Partnership, please visit http://www.frost.com.Frost & Sullivan（成長夥伴公司）幫助客戶加速發展，讓客戶的成長力，創造力和領導力達致最佳。該公司的「成長夥伴服務」旨在為高管及其領導的成長團隊提供專業的研究和最佳實務模式，幫助他們制定，評價和推行卓有成效的成長策略。Frost & Sullivan在六大洲設有31間辦事處，發揮45年的豐富經驗服務於全球1,000家公司，新興企業和投資業界。欲知「成長夥伴」詳情，敬請瀏覽http://www.frost.com。

the total operation period is expected to be not less than 20 years. In terms of different construction conditions and application areas, the subsidies provided for the projects are planned to reach to 50.0 or 70.0 percent of total investments. 「金太陽示範工程」自2009年開始實施

直至2011年，國家將在基礎建設，關鍵

技術產業化，解決偏遠地區電力短缺工

程及其他領域安排財政補貼。根據計劃，

每個項目的裝機容量可能超過300 KWp，

建設期可能不到一年，而且營運期不少

於20年。視乎不同的建設條件和應用領

域，補貼資金大約會佔項目投資總額的

50%或70%。

The ‘GoldenSun Demonstration Project’ has played an important role in facilitating the fast development of the immature photovoltaic industry in China. However, favorable policy can provide only a little support for the photovoltaic industry. In the long run, cost reduction is a more necessary factor for the development of the photovoltaic industry.「金太陽示範工程」為促進中國尚不

成熟的光伏產業快速發展發揮了重要作

用，然而單靠優惠政策還遠遠不夠，長

遠來看，降低成本才是光伏產業發展壯

大的硬道理。|AT|

This article was authored by Kelly Yang based out of the Beijing offices of Frost & Sullivan本文由Frost & Sullivan北京辦事處Kelly

Yang撰寫

Manufacturing solar cells at Suntech, China’s biggest solar panel maker

China’s goal is to increase domestic consumption on renewable energy from 8% to 15% by 2020

PHOTOGRAPH © MAGELLANO

PHO

TOG

RAPH

© A

NR2

008

IndonesIa, owIng to Its locatIon in the pacific ring of fire with over 130 active volcanoes has a reserve of nearly 27,000 MW of Geothermal power. Despite having the highest reserves in the world, Indonesia has, so far utilized only 4 percent of it. It has typically relied on oil and gas for energy production. Conditions however, have changed now with Indonesia being a net oil importer, thereby posing a need for greater exploitation of geothermal energy, along with other renewable forms of energy.

印尼臨近擁有130餘

座活火山的太平洋火

山鏈，地熱能儲量近

27,000兆瓦。儘管地熱

儲能位居全球之首，印尼

目前僅利用全部儲能的4

％。印尼的能源生產主要

依賴石油和天然氣。現在

情況已開始轉變，作為石

油淨進口國的印尼，有必

要對地熱能源進行更大規

Time to tap the

ring of fire模的開採，同時積極利用其他可再生能源。

One reason behind such low exploitation of geothermal energy in Indonesia has been the high risk and capital intensive nature of the projects. The exploration phase for a geothermal power plant comprises the highest cost and has a success rate of just about 25 percent compared to 45 percent for oil exploration. Technology barriers have hence, reduced the competitiveness of

the geothermal projects compared to oil and gas in Indonesia, which have enjoyed high subsidies for years. 印尼地熱能源開發程

度較低的原因之一是，

此類開發項目風險較

高，需要注入大量資

金。為修建地熱電廠，

勘測階段往往需要高昂

成本，項目成功率僅為約25％，而石油勘

測的成功率可達45％。技術障礙導致地熱

項目競爭力不足，無法與石油和天然氣項

目相比，多年來，印尼政府一直為石油和

天然氣項目提供高額補貼。

Current scenario however seems to be set for a change. Firstly, Indonesian government has started removing subsidies from oil, which would bring geothermal to a level playing field with fossil fuels. As Indonesia became a net importer of oil and suffered from high oil prices, President Susilo Yudhoyono during his previous regime curbed the oil subsidies thereby hiking the oil prices. With Mr. Yudhoyono set to return to the Presidential office for a second term, oil price rationalization is expected to resume, which would increase the competitiveness of geothermal energy.如今，這一情況開始有所改觀。首先，

印尼政府開始取消石油項目的補貼，使地

時機已到開發火山鏈資源

OCTOBER 2009

42 Sustainable Energy


Despite having the highest reserves in the world, indonesia has, so far has utilized only 4% of its 27,000 Mw of Geothermal power

作者/by Rajat Gupta

ring of fire

熱能源與化石燃料擁有平等的競爭空間。

隨著印尼成為石油淨進口國，高油價對經

濟發展的抑制日益凸顯，前任總統 Susilo

Yudhoyono 控制石油補貼，使油價進一步

提高。由於 Yudhoyono 先生即將再次擔任

總統，市場預計政府將恢復對油價進行合

理化調整，從而提高地熱能源的競爭力。

A big cost advantage for geothermal projects is also bound to come on account of its low carbon emissions. With a greater global shift towards green and sustainable energy, carbon emission cost is going to be a big factor in the per Kwh production of energy. Geothermal, along with small-scale hydropower has the lowest cost of carbon emissions, thereby increasing the financial attractiveness of the projects. 由於地熱能項目碳排放較低，將具有較

大的成本優勢。隨著全球日趨注重綠色和

可持續能源，碳排放成本將成為每千瓦時

能源生產的重要因素。地熱和小規模水力

發電項目擁有最低的碳排放成本，可進一

步增加此類項目的成本優勢。

Besides, the operating cost of a geothermal plant is much lower since there is no cost of fuel, hence increasing the NPV of a project further. 除此之外，由於沒有燃料成本，地熱電

廠的營運成本大幅降低，可進一步提高此

類項目的淨現值。

High risk and capital-intensive nature of business are, however not the only reasons why only about 1,000 MW of a potential 27,000 MW in Indonesia has been capitalized. USA and Philippines,

despite having lower potentials of geothermal energy score much higher in terms of the installed capacity of Geothermal power plants. USA has an installed capacity of approximately 2900 MW. Philippines also has an installed capacity of nearly 1900 MW which serves nearly 25% of country’s energy needs. In case of USA, a 1.9 cent subsidy per Kwh, owing to Production tax credit (PTC) for renewable energy makes the projects financially attractive. The primary driver for a surge in Geothermal installed capacity in Philippines came from deregulation of the power market through the introduction of a build-operate-transfer scheme in 1990, which

encouraged private-sector power utilities to enter and fund Geothermal plants. From 1990 to 1998, installed geothermal capacity more than doubled, from 888 MW to 1.86 GW. Following the crisis, the termination of high-cost independent power producers’ contracts and the imposition of a royalty tax on the net proceeds from geothermal operations, reduced investor interest in geothermal schemes. Only 22 MW was added to total installed hydrothermal power capacity between 1998 and 2005. 地熱項目的高風險和高投入特點並非印

尼27,000兆瓦地熱儲量僅開發利用1,000

兆瓦的唯一原因。儘管美國和菲律賓的地

熱儲量不如印尼，但在地熱電廠的裝機容

量方面卻遠遠超過印尼。美國的裝機容量

約為2900兆瓦。菲律賓的裝機容量近1900

兆瓦，可滿足全國近25％的能源需求。就

美國而言，透過可再生能源生產免稅折扣

（PTC），每千瓦時可獲得1.9％的補貼，

使此類項目極具投資吸引力。1990年，菲

律賓施行興建－營運－轉移計劃，放鬆對

能源市場的監管，鼓勵私營能源企業參與

並注資地熱電廠，成為菲律賓地熱裝機容

量猛增的主要推動因素。1990至1998年

間，菲律賓地熱裝機容量增幅超過一倍，

由888兆瓦發展至1860兆瓦。但全球金融

危機後，由於高成本獨立發電企業合約終

止，以及政府對地熱電廠淨收益徵收開採

使用費稅，投資人地熱項目的熱情大打折

扣。1998至2005年間，水熱發電裝機總容

量僅增加22兆瓦。

Indonesia, has still some way to go in terms of a favorable regulatory policy and incentives for renewable energy. The


Sustianable Energy 43

Salak Geothermal field, West Java, Indonesia

policy roadmap for Geothermal energy has recommended a market based pricing in future. Such pricing mechanism would tilt the cost benefit equation largely in favor of Geothermal in Indonesia. Very recently, PT Medco Energi shelved 3 big energy projects worth US$3 billion due to disagreement on energy prices and approval not coming from the government. The government would need to think for a more conducive pricing mechanism to ensure investment in power projects.在優惠的監管政策和可再生能源激勵方

面，印尼仍有很好的選擇。根據地熱能源

政策規劃，政府更傾向于在未來建立以市

場為基礎的定價機制。該定價機制將向成

本收益模式傾斜，使印尼的地熱產業獲

益。近期，由於在能源價格方面無法達成

一致，且無法獲得政府審批，PT Medco

Energi 被迫擱置3個大規模能源項目，總

價值達30億美元。印尼政府應設計一種更

為可行的定價機制，確保能源項目投資順

利實現。

The energy blueprint for year 2025 has outlined the government’s plans to increase the share of geothermal energy in Indonesia’s overall energy mix to about 5 percent from a current 1.3 percent, along with nearly doubling the overall installed capacity in the country. This would mean that nearly 30% of the additional 30,000 MW installed capacity would come from geothermal energy. Such high growth would present a huge potential for both project developers and equipment manufacturers. Already, firms like Chevron have stated their ambition of doubling their geothermal operations in Indonesia. Ormat

technologies, originally an equipment manufacturer and service provider, and now a vertically integrated geothermal power developer, is involved in a proposed construction of a US$800 million project. The Philippine National Oil Company – Energy Development Corporation (PNOC-EDC) has also initiated business developments efforts in Indonesia by setting up a Jakarta office. Considering the fact that there are many regions in the country where the reserves are as yet unutilized, but a development plan has been put into place by the government, there are ample opportunities for power developers. The 2011 development target by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral resources for Sumatra, for example is 950 MW while the current installed capacity is only 2 MW.根據印尼政府2025年能源藍圖，政府計

劃將地熱能在印尼全部能源組合中所佔

的比例由現時的1.3％增加至5％，使國

內總裝機容量增長近一倍。這意味著新

增的30,000兆瓦裝機容量中將有30％來

自地熱能。如此大幅增長定將為項目發展

商和設備製造商帶來巨大商機。雪佛龍

（Chevron）等公司已經躍躍欲試，希望

將印尼的地熱項目規模擴大一倍。Ormat

technologies 最初是設備生產商和服務

提供商，現為垂直整合的地熱能發展商，

該公司目前正參與一項計劃中的建設項

目，投資高達8億美元。菲律賓國家石油

公司－能源發展公司（PNOC-EDC）亦計

劃參與印尼的地熱開發，已在雅加達成

立辦事處。由於印尼有諸多地區的資源尚

未利用，但政府已經制定發展計劃，因

此能源發展商將得到豐富的業務機會。

例如，印尼能源和礦產資源部為蘇門答

臘島（Sumatra）制定的2011年發展目標

為950兆瓦，該地區目前的裝機容量僅為

2兆瓦。

An increase in installed capacity would also provide a huge growth opportunity for equipment manufacturers and service providers like Toshiba, Fuji, Mitsubishi, Ansaldo Energia etc. who are already active in the South-East Asian region. 隨著裝機容量的大幅增加，東芝，富

士，三菱，Ansaldo Energia 等積極參與

東南亞市場的設備製造商和服務提供商亦

將得到大量業務增長機會。|AT|

This article was authored by Rajat Gupta, Consultant, Asia Pacific Energy & Power Systems Practice, Frost & Sullivan

隨著裝機容量的大幅增加，東芝，富士，三菱，Ansaldo Energia 等積極參與東南亞市場的設備製造商和服務提供商亦將得到大量業務

增長機會。

Coal 煤炭

Natural 天然氣

Hydro

水力

Geothermal 地熱

Oil 石油

Other Renewable

其他可再生能源

Natural Gas

天然氣

Geothermal 地熱

Oil 石油

51.7%

15.3%

28.6% Bio Fuel 生物燃料

Coal 煤炭

20%33%

30%

5%5%

2%

5%

3.1%1.3%

2006年印尼能源組合計劃的 2025 年能源組合

indonesia Energy Mix 2006 Proposed 2025 Energy mix


Sustainable Enrgy44

Geothermal power has become an viable option for developing countries amid increasing oil prices

(Source: Indonesia National Energy Policy, President decree no. 5/2006) （資料來源：印尼國家能源政策，第5/2006號總統令）

馬來西亞

亞洲真本色


Tourism 45

But has all this worked? Has the investment of millions of ringgit been converted to punters coming through the immigration turnstiles at the glistening Kuala Lumpur International Airport?

不過，這些努力是否都起到了實效？巨額

投資是否轉換成了金碧輝煌的吉隆坡國際

機場裏入境通道的洶湧人潮？

A Challenging Year 充滿挑戰的一年No one anywhere in tourism around

the world would argue that 2009 has been

anything but challenging. The year started with global economies on the brink of collapse, with unprecedented high fuel prices and global business confidence levels at near record lows. It’s hardly surprising that global travellers decided to forego many things as they cut back on their expenses to pay the bills. One of the first to go was any idea of an overseas holiday. Business travellers cut back the frequency of

trips, duration of stays and classes of both travel and accommodation. If that wasn’t enough, the outbreak of swine flu created yet another good reason to stay at home in 2009. 對於全球各地的旅遊業人士而言，2009

年不能不說是十分艱難的

一年。新年伊始，全球經

濟就在衰退邊緣徘徊，油

價出現前所未見的暴漲，

全球企業信心幾欲跌至谷

底，無怪乎各國遊客皆清

心寡欲，削減用度，但求

MaLaysiaTruly

Asia

Asia作者/by David Bowden

THE BRANDING IS WORKING AS WAITRESSES FROM Hanoi to cab drivers in Jakarta know the Malaysia Tourism tagline. ‘Malaysia Truly Asia.’ For several years now, aggressive marketing by the nation’s tourism ministry has established an identity for the nation while making it stand out from the regional competition.從河內的餐廳服務生到雅加達的出租車司機，無人不曉馬來西亞的旅遊宣傳口號「馬來西亞，亞洲真本色」，由此看來品牌營銷的

力量不可小覷。數年來，在該國旅遊部的大力宣傳之下，旅遊已然

成為大馬的一張國家名片，而大馬亦從區內競爭中脫穎而出。


Tourism46

while 2009 has been a good one for Malaysia’s new Minister of Tourism, Dato’ Sri Dr. Ng Yen Yen... she feels that Malaysia has to get smarter in maintaining tourism arrivals figures even during tough times.

維持日常開支。首當其衝的便是取消出國

度假計劃。商務旅行者減少出差次數，縮

短出差時間，降低出行及住宿標準。如果

說這還不夠，那豬流感的爆發就是2009年

居家休養的另一不錯藉口。

Despite all this, arrival figures are steadily climbing in Malaysia with some 13.35 million visitors coming to Malaysia in the first six months of 2009. The figure is up 3.6% for

the corresponding period last year where some 22 million arrivals were recorded by the Immigration Department. While some claim these figures record all arrivals (workers, expatriates and visitors), they are still impressive considering the difficulties experienced. The ten main markets for Malaysia in descending order are: Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, Brunei, China, India, Australia, Philippines, United Kingdom and Japan. In 2008, tourism expenditure was almost RM50 million. 儘管如此，到訪大馬的旅客人數卻依

然穩步攀升，2009年前六個月入境遊客

約1,335萬人次，較去年同期增長3.6%，

而去年全年移民局共錄得入境遊客2,200

萬人次。有人稱上述數據包含了所有入

境者（勞工，移民及遊客），不過考慮到

眼下的市道，這些數字依然相當驚人。馬

來西亞的十大主要市場分別是（按降序排

列）：新加坡，印尼，泰國，文萊，中國，

印度，澳洲，菲律賓，英國以及日本。

2008年旅遊開支幾近5,000萬馬幣。

While 2009 has been a good one for Malaysia’s new Minister of Tourism, Dato’ Sri Dr. Ng Yen Yen in that she now heads tourism and Malaysia’s second biggest money ministry, taking over when the prospects for tourism looked brighter would have been much easier. Being an optimist she feels that Malaysia has to get smarter in maintaining tourism arrivals figures even during tough times.

在旅遊業前景好轉時上任當然會更有利

於工作的開展，但馬來西亞第二大創收部

門旅遊部之掌門人—新任旅遊部長拿督斯

里黃燕燕倒認為2009年還算是個不錯的

年景。作為一個樂天派，她認為世道愈

艱難，馬來西亞愈要懂得如何維持入境遊

客人次的水平。

Like many countries, Malaysia has had to be targeted in its marketing and be tactical in quickly changing its advertising and promotions when circumstances require it. During the year, the minister

Malaysia is focusing to increase tourist arrivals particulary Indians, Arabs and Chinese


Tourism 47

and her ministry have spent time trying to attract more regional travellers especially those from India and China.跟許多國家一樣，馬來西亞必須要做到

在營銷上有的放矢，在戰術上審時度勢，

適時改變廣告宣傳策略。今年黃部長及整

個旅遊部均在吸引更多區內遊客上狠下

功夫，特別是印度及中國遊客。

For some years, Malaysia has been courting Arabian travellers during their summer when there is a mass exodus

from the searing heat of the Middle East. However, this year, the Moslem fasting month of Ramadan coincided with the school holidays and few Middle Eastern travellers were seen on the streets of Kuala Lumpur.由於中東的夏季酷

熱難耐，大批民眾紛

紛外出避暑，多年來

馬來西亞一直受到阿

拉伯遊客的青睞，

然而今年因穆斯林齋

月與暑假重合，吉隆坡的大街小巷裏幾乎

見不到中東遊客。

The season was short and sour for most inbound tour operators who had previously enjoyed annual double digit growth for the past few years. Mr. Andy Muniandy, Director of Sales and Business development at one of Malaysia’s leading inbound operators, Asian Overland Services claimed that arrivals had halved on previous years with some loss of business to neighbouring Thailand and Singapore.對於幾年來保持雙位數年增長率的本

地旅遊營運商來說，這個夏季既短暫又

難熬。馬來西亞的領先本地旅遊營運商

Asian Overland Services銷售及業務發

展主管Andy Muniandy先生表示到訪遊客

人數較前幾年減半，部份業務流向鄰國泰

國及新加坡。

Mr. Leo Kuscher, General Manager for the recently opened, 504 room, five-star Royale Chulan Hotel in downtown Kuala Lumpur said: “This year the Arabs did not come in the numbers they have in the past few years. Occupancy levels for the hotel and most others in the city are way

down on what we predicted but we are seeing optimism from October onwards with convention business.” He added that food and beverage business was way above normal as diners broke their fast in the hotel. On some nights during the holy month, some 700 diners enjoyed the hotel’s buffet.近期吉隆坡市區新開張了一間共有504

個房間的五星級酒店皇家君蘭酒店，該酒

店總經理Leo Kuscher先生表示：「今年阿

拉伯遊客的數量不如過去幾年。正如我們

所料，本酒店及市內其他酒店的入住率均

有下降，不過我們看好10月份以後的會議

業務。」但他指出餐飲業務好於平常，因為

許多客人都會在酒店用早餐。齋月期間，

有幾個晚上在酒店享用自助餐的客人甚至

高達700人。

New Hotels, Renewed Optimism新酒店，新氣象

Kuala Lumpur has arguably the cheapest hotel rates in the region with some five-star rooms being often being

Mr. Leo Kuscher, GM of Royale Chulan Hotel KL

Batu Caves in Kuala Lumpur is one of the most popular Hindu shrines outside of India. It is the focal point of a Hindu Festival Thaipusam in Malasia and attracts 1.5 million pilgrims yearly


Tourism48

sold below US$100/night. While most hoteliers would like to see rates rise, oversupply means both rates and occupancy remain low (the latter was below 45% for many hotels in September which compares poorly with occupancy figures for the first six months of 2009 being 79% in London, 75% in Sydney and, 68% in Hong Kong according to STR Global).吉隆坡酒店的收費可以說是區內最便宜

的，一些五星級房間的房價常常不到100美

元/晚。儘管絕大多數酒店經營者希望房價

上漲，但供過於求的局面卻使房價和入住

率持續低迷（9月份不少酒店的入住率降至

45%以下，而據STR Global數據顯示，2009

年前六個月倫敦酒店的入住率高達79%，

悉尼為75%，香港為68%。比較之下，吉隆

坡就顯得有些相形見絀了）。

Between now and 2014, 14 new hotels from two to five star status are planned to be built in and around Kuala Lumpur. This includes international brands such as Grand Hyatt, Doubletree by Hilton, Thistle and the St Regis and means an additional 4,000 rooms will be added to the already over-supplied inventory. This will create a challenge for hotel sales departments to attract more business but, it will also create opportunities for conference planners to attract more conventions and meetings to the country.

Mount Kinabalu located in Kinabalu National Park (a World Heritage Site) in the east Malaysian state of Sabah. It is one

of the most important biological sites in the world

今至2014年，吉隆坡及周邊地區將新建

14間酒店，星級從二星至五星不等，其中

不乏君悅，希爾頓逸林，希思爾和聖瑞吉

等國際知名品牌。屆時將再有4,000個房間

投放市場，會讓本已供過於求的狀況更為

嚴重。到那時，酒店銷售部門將在提升業

務方面面臨更大挑戰；不過這對會議籌辦

機構來說卻是個不錯的契機，因為這會吸

引更多人到大馬舉辦會議。

Uniquely Malaysia 唯一的馬來西亞While every country’s national

tourism organisation could argue that their country is unique, Malaysia does have many saleable tourism assets from its three UNESCO World Heritage Sites (Kinabalu Park, Mount Mulu and Melaka/Penang) to extensive tracts of tropical rainforest, various cultural attributes, world-class diving, hundreds of islands and, great value-for-money. Few other Asian cities offer the variety and value in Kuala Lumpur’s shopping and dining opportunities.雖然每個國家的國旅局都聲稱本國獨具

特色，但馬來西亞的的確確有許多吸引遊

客的旅遊資源，包括三大聯合國教科文組

織世界遺產地（基納巴盧國家公園，姆魯

山及馬六甲／檳城），廣袤的熱帶雨林，

多姿多彩的人文風情，世界級潛水樂園以

及成百上千的美麗島嶼，精彩紛呈，物超

所值。吉隆坡堪稱購物天堂，美食聖地，

不但品種豐富，且價格廉宜，亞洲其他城

市鮮有能與之媲美者。

Spreading its Wings 航空業展翅高飛Malaysia also provides an excellent

gateway to the region with connecting flights to all South East Asian destinations as well as to all continents except Antarctica. Regional budget airlines have enabled more people to travel more frequently and at lower prices. Leading the charge is Malaysia’s AirAsia and its long haul affiliate, AirAsia X. Company earnings doubled in the first


Tourism50

six months of the year as revenue grew on higher passenger volumes and the strengthening ringgit against the US dollar. Nett profit also grew to RM342 million (up from RM171 million from the corresponding period last year) while revenue increased almost 20% to RM1.37 billion. Average fare prices dropped by 8% due to the competitive market which saw the national carrier, Malaysia Airlines also turn in a profit while adopting many of the strategies of regional low-cost carriers.馬來西亞有飛往所有東南亞地區以及除

南極洲以外所有大洲的航班，是取道區內

的必經之地。區內廉價航空公司讓更多人

能以更低的價格更頻繁地出行。其中當推

首者，屬馬來西亞的亞洲航空及其長程航

線聯營公司亞洲航空長途公司。客運量上

升及令吉兌美元走強推動收入增長，今年

前六個月公司盈利翻番。純利亦增至3.42

億馬幣（對比上年同期為1.71億馬幣），

收入增長近20%至13.7億馬幣。市場競爭激

烈致使平均票價下跌8%，但因大力推行區

內廉價航空公司的多種策略，國營航空公

司馬來西亞航空依然有所盈利。

Despite the challenges in regional tourism, AirAsia saw its passenger volume increase by 22% which indicates

that more people want to travel more frequently. However, it’s deferment in August of eight Airbus A320 planes to 2014 from 2010, signaled to some analysts, the potential overcapacity in the future. While the carrier takes many Malaysians overseas, it also brings in many other foreign national travellers to help boost Malaysia’s tourism coffers.儘管區內旅遊業面臨挑戰，但亞洲航空

客運量卻逆勢增長22%，表明人們的出行

意願上升。然而

該公司在8月份

將八架空中巴士

A320飛機的交付時間由2010年推遲至2014

年的做法讓分析人士嗅到了未來或有運力

過剩之隱憂。航空公司在將馬來西亞人送

往海外的同時亦將他國遊客帶到馬來西

亞，從而推動了國內旅遊業的發展。

While Malaysia remains a great value-for-money destination for travellers it is still a challenging market for tourism development and investment.儘管馬來西亞對遊客而言依然是具有高

性價比的旅遊勝地，但對旅遊業

發展及投資而言，此處絕不算是

陽光福地。|AT|

AirAsia saw its passenger volume increase by 22% which indicates that more people want to travel more frequently.

While Malaysia remains a great value-for-money destination for travellers it is still a challenging market for tourism development and investment

OCTOBER 2009

52 Economy


doI moI, vIetnamese Forrenovation, is also the name of the political and economic reforms initiated in 1986 resulting in a Socialist oriented market economy that combines elements of central planning with private innovation. In that time Vietnam’s economy has been one of the fastest growing economies in the world with GDP growth of 6.23 percent in 2008 and 3.9 percent in the first half of 2009.

越南的政治經濟改革計劃始於1986年，

逐步形成以社會主義為主導的市場經濟，

將中央計劃經濟與私營經濟的創新相結

合。此後，越南一躍成為全球增長最快的

經濟體之一，2008年 GDP 增長達到6.23

，2009年上半年 GDP 增長達3.9％。

Prior to Doi Moi Vietnam’s economy was centrally planned, primarily

agricultural and was characterized by high unemployment and poverty levels as economic growth was severely hampered by the aftermath of the Vietnam War. Doi Moi brought about an increase in the number of private businesses and increased foreign investment through the use of incentives resulting in high economic growth and a significant decrease in poverty from approximately 50 percent of the population in the early 1990s to 29 percent of the population in 2005. Change has been rapid as Vietnam signed a Bilateral Trade Agreement with the United States in 2000 and finally joined the World Trade Organization in 2006 after more than 8 years of negotiation.在改革之前，越南執行中央計劃的經濟

體制，以農業為主，受越戰的消極影響，

經濟發展舉步維艱，失業率和貧困人口居

高不下。實行改革後，透過鼓勵投資的計

劃，越南的私營企業和外商投資激增，經

濟保持較高增長率，貧困人口亦大幅下

降，由90年代初期約50％的貧困人口下降

為2005年的約29％。2000年與美國簽署《

雙邊貿易協定》後，越南的經濟發展日新

月異，歷經8年談判後，終於在2006年加入

世界貿易組織。

Another example of Vietnam’s increasing openness to market forces was the establishment of a public securities trading system. Shares were first traded in the Ho Chi Minh City Securities Centre on July 28, 2000. On the first day of trading only two companies traded and the value turnover was slightly more than $5,000. Only two more companies were able to list within the first week and trading was limited to alternate

革新進行時

renovationUnder way

作者/by Alan Aguas


Economy 53

weekdays due to the lack of trading volume. Strict trading bands of 2 percent were instituted in an effort to curb speculation. 越南成功確立公共證券交易體制，成

為越南不斷提高市場開放度的又一例

證。2000年7月28日，胡志明市證券交易中

心首次啟動證券交易。在第一個交易日，

僅有兩家公司的股票參與交易，成交額僅

約5,000美元。第一週內，僅有兩家新公司

上市，由於交易量不足，不得不採用隔日

輪流交易的方式。為控制投機行為，交易

區被嚴格限制在2％以內。

Despite this inauspicious start, the Ho Chi Minh City Securities Centre thrived and it was formally converted to the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HoSE) in July 2007. A secondary market was established in Hanoi known as the Hanoi Securities Trading Centre (HASTC) which regulates over the counter transactions and also has lower listing requirements than the HoSE. The HoSE was highly volatile as evidenced by its

being one of the best performing markets in 2007 and one of the worst performing markets in 2008. The volatility has continued in 2009 with the VN Index, comprising all stocks listed on the HoSE, dropping to a four year low in February before more than doubling to close at 571.01 as of September 18. As of the end of August, the VN Index outperformed nearly all global indices except for the Bolsa de Valores de Lima, the Colombo Stock Exchange, the Indonesia Stock Exchange, the Istanbul Stock Exchange and the Russian Trading System. 儘管起步艱難，胡志明市證券交易中心

不斷發展壯大，於2007年7月正式轉變為

胡志明市證券交易所（HoSE），還在河內

建立二級市場，名為河內證券交易中心

（HASTC），監管場外交易，較之胡志明市

證交所，上市門檻較低。胡志明市證交所

股價波動較大，2007年成為業績最佳的證

券市場之一，2008年則成為業績最差的證

券市場之一。2009年，越南股票市場繼續

劇烈波動，涵蓋胡志明市證交所所有上市

股票的越南股指於2月跌至4年來的最低水

平，而9月18日卻增長近兩倍，收盤時達

571.01點。8月底，越

南股指的表現幾乎超

越全球所有股指，不

包括秘魯利馬股指，

科倫坡股指，印尼股

指，伊斯坦布爾股指

和俄羅斯股指。

Foreign direct

investment in Vietnam has continued to grow at a rapid pace. According to the Foreign Investment Agency (FIA) foreign investors pledged $64 billion in foreign direct investment in 2008 as compared to $20.3 billion in 2007. This investment is directly responsible for the employment of 1.4 million people. Foreign ownership restrictions have also been eased as foreigners can now own up to 49 percent of listed companies compared to 20 percent in 2000. This has had the obvious effect of stimulating the economy despite the global economic slowdown.越南的外商直接投資持續快速增長。越

南外商投資管理局（FIA）的統計資料顯

示，2008年越南吸引外商直接投資高達640

億美元，2007年為203億美元。此類投資直

接解決越南140萬人口的就業。越南對外

商持股的比例亦放寬限制，外籍人士現最

高可持有上市公司49％的股權，而2000年

該比例僅為20％。在全球經濟低迷的背景

下，此項舉措對刺激經濟作用明顯。

Vietnam’s export laden economy leaves it more sensitive to fluctuations

Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange

with its export rich economyof coffee, crude oil, garments, rice and seafood, Vietnam is poised to reap the benefits of the global economic recovery

Vietnamese coffee


Economy54

in the global economy. In 2008 Vietnam posted a record deficit of $17.5 billion causing investors to be concerned about the sustainability of the economy. The record trade deficit also continued to put pressure on the Vietnamese dong. The trade deficit for the first eight months of 2009 narrowed to $5.1 billion, down 67 percent year on year with exports falling 14 percent year on year compared to imports which dropped 28 percent year on year. With its export rich economy of coffee, crude oil, garments, rice and seafood, Vietnam is poised to reap the benefits of the global economic recovery that many analysts and economists are now expecting.越南的出口導向型經濟導致本國經濟對

全球經濟的波動更為敏感。2008年，越南

公佈175億美元的貿易赤字，導致投資人

對越南經濟的可持續發展憂心忡忡。該創

下歷史記錄的貿易赤字亦對越南盾帶來壓

力。2009年前8個月，越南貿易赤字下降

至51億美元，較之去年同期下降67％，出

口較之去年下降14％，進口較之去年下降

28％。越南主要向發達國家出口咖啡，原

油，服裝，大米和海產品，諸多分析人士

和經濟學家預計，

越南將從全球經濟

復甦中獲益。

However challenges to growth remain. A recent report from Morgan Stanley remarked that the primary driver for economic growth in Vietnam should shift from policy to exports due to inflation and trade deficit concerns. Growth in the first eight months of the year was largely attributed to economic policy that encouraged the expansion of credit. Retail investors complain that large institutional investors dominate the HoSE and that there is a lack of financial analysis on listed issues. From a valuation standpoint, Credit Suisse Group AG advised investors to sell Vietnam’s equities as valuations were excessive. The price-to-earnings ratio of 22.18 and the price-to-book ratio of 2.88 are both among the highest in Asia. 不過，增長的挑戰仍然存在。摩根士丹

利近期發佈的報告認為，在通貨膨脹和貿

易赤字的壓力下，越南經濟增長的主要推

動力應由政策轉向出口。越南在今年前8個

月的經濟增長主要歸功於鼓勵擴大信貸的

經濟政策。中小投資人對大型機構投資人

主導胡志明市證交所的現狀抱怨重重，且

缺乏對上市事宜的金融分析。從價值的角

度出發，瑞信集團（Credit Suisse Group

AG）認為當前股票價值過高，建議投資人

賣出越南市場的股權。目前越南股市市盈

率為22.18，市淨率為2.88，兩項指標均為

亞洲地區的最高值。

Government forecasts paint a rosy picture of an improving, vibrant economy. August core inflation of 2 percent year on year was the lowest level in 7 years coming off of a high base. At the same time, the Ministry of Planning and Investment still forecasts Vietnam’s economy to grow by 5.5% this year. The HoSE announced on September 17 that it was joining the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Bulletin Board, a project that seeks to attract investors to ASEAN equities. This project is backed by the Asian

Development Bank and ASEAN and will include 30 stocks each from Vietnam, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines. This should further increase trading volumes and make investing in ASEAN equities more attractive to global investors. Change and renovation are under way for Vietnam. From one of the more restrictive economies in the world, Vietnam has emerged as a more open economy ready to meet the challenges of the modern economic environment.越南政府對未來充滿信心，承諾實現經濟

持續發展。8月份通脹率較之去年增加2％，

為7年來的最低水平。與此同時，越南規劃

與投資部預計，越南經濟今年將實現5.5％

的增長。胡志明市證交所於9月17日宣佈，

將加入東盟（ASEAN）公告板項目，該項目

旨在吸引投資人投資東盟國家股票市場。亞

洲開發銀行和東盟為該項目提供支持，將涵

蓋越南，新加坡，印尼，馬來西亞，泰國和

菲律賓的30支股票。加入該項目有助於進一

步提高交易量，使投資東盟股票市場對全球

投資人更具吸引力。越南的改革正處於進行

時。越南一改原本封閉落後的面貌，已發展

成更為開放的經濟體，隨時準備應對現代經

濟環境的挑戰。 |AT|

Vietnam has emerged as a more open economy ready to meet the challenges of the modern economic environment.

Equity investments proceeded to show decorous advances through September showing only brief consolidations and reactions for most global indices. US index components and European indices have touched new recent highs in 2009 and have maintained their clear upward bias. So far no threatening support failures have been seen which does accommodate holding positions through this enduring trend swing. Only Japan, Singapore, China and the Philippine are left into a consolidating shelf, as the rest have recently managed to break short term resistance and carry on with advances. Moreover the recovery also managed its way into commodities and energy stocks as both were given a boost by the US Dollars’ continuing retreat.9月份環球股市投資氣氛普遍向好，偶有

短暫回調和整固，歐美主要股指創年內新

高，並保持清晰上升趨勢。迄今尚無破位

風險，投資者可放心持倉，充份把握本輪

漲勢。其他市場紛紛突破短線阻力昂首上

漲之際，唯有日本，新加坡，中國和菲律

賓陷入調整。因美元持續低迷，商品和能

源類股在本輪反彈中走勢強勁。

Dollar doldrums boosts Gold and braces other commodities美元疲弱惠及黃金及其他商品

The US Dollar succumbed to further selling pressure and proceeded to shift downward through the 3rd quarter.

The Dollar Index already registered a 14% drop since its recovery highs in March and support has yet to show any meaningful attempt to draw new attention. If no positive indications turn for the Dollar soon, then a possible pullback to 2008’s lows may be in store into the medium term. Stay lightly positioned if you must.三季度美元持續受壓走勢低迷，美元指數

已從3月份反彈高位回落一成四，仍未獲有

力支撐，短期若無起色，恐怕中線可能回落

到2008年低位，所以必要時以輕倉為宜。

On the bright side, Gold has sparkled anew with the price per ounce climbing above $1,000 in recent days. Gold has been inversely related to the Dollar and has its short term sights glued on testing 2008’s highs of $1,033 an ounce. With its trend indications still looking formidable, it is quite possible that this previous high resistance can be tried and possibly broken as no divergences or support slips are showing that can intervene with its upward flight. A break then above $1,033 should drive a potential target of $1,108 assuming that a triangular pattern (of $133 in size) has just been broken above $975. 另一方面，金價近日突破千元

大關。黃金與美元素來背道而

馳，短線劍指2008年高位1,033

美元/盎司，鑒於趨勢指標向

好，金價有望挑戰甚至攻克這個

前期高點阻力位，目前既無背離，且下方

支撐牢固，故而升勢當無大礙。假設975

美元上方的三角形整理形態（幅度為133

美元）被突破，則金價一旦站上1,033美

元，下一目標將是1,108美元。

Oil prices have managed to hold into a consolidation range showing a box-like pattern between $75 and $67. This range has held since August and should be inclined to make a decision within the next month or so. 油價繼續整固，徘徊於75美元至67美元

之間，呈箱型整理態勢。從8月起油價一直

在此區間振盪，何去何從，估計下月前後

會見分曉。

Global MarketsTrend Higher throughthe 3rd Quarter 三季度環球股市續漲

56



World Market Performance (Sept 21, 2009) 環球市場表現（截至2009年9月21日）

Country國家

StockChart Code

StockChart代號

Current Price當前點位

32-day MA32天移動平

均值

65-day MA 65天移動平

均值

Rally high from ‘09 base

從09年低位反彈幅度

YTD Performance年初至今表現

USA 美國 $spx 1,064 1,022 978 61.3% 18%Philippines 菲律賓 $psec 2,789 2,823 2,671 66.5% 49%England 英國 $ftse 5,134 4,864 4,611 49.8% 17%Japan 日本 $nikk 10,370 10,398 10,078 53.4% 17%Hong Kong 香港 $hsi 21,472 20,603 19,776 93.3% 49%China 中國 $ssec 2,967 2,959 3,074 91.7% 63%

(* Red colored Moving Average value presents that prices have fallen below it and may now act out as resistance)

(*紅色的均線值表示股指已經跌破

該均線，此處現已成為阻力位)

Channel Trends to continue but will have to deal with Overbought Conditions once again軌道趨勢保持惟須提防超買

Share prices have been quite obedient in following supportive calls – standing above trendlines and short term moving averages. But recent advances have called in some overbought positions (RSIs now over 70%) and may need to zigzag to handle temporary corrections. These conditions still merit activity but would need to be guided by proper reactions and short consolidation ranges. This should still sponsor the appearance of price channels and area patterns, allowing for various trend trading techniques. 股價運行四平八穩，皆因站在趨勢線和

短期均線之上，但近期上漲已有超買風險

（RSI已逾70%），後市或有反復及短暫回

調，雖說其間不乏機遇，但應在適當調整

和短期整固過後謀定而動。後市或形成多

種趨勢軌道和走勢形態，相應亦有不同的

趨勢交易技巧。

Assuming a price channel has come to drive prices 1) look to buy off support pullbacks usually sported by major trendlines or the 16 or 32-day Moving Averages. These MAs usually work well for strong trending stocks; 2) afterwards allow sudden swings to new recent highs (within the range bounds) to call in some profit taking. You may wish to keep and hold a core position that should only be sold if the major trendline breaks. This should work well during durable advances or recovery periods.在趨勢軌道中：1) 以重要趨勢線如16天

或32天均線為標誌，股價回落到支撐位則

低吸。一般而言，均線對趨勢性較強的股

票非常有效；2) 隨後急劇反彈並達近期

新高（仍在區間範圍內），此時應套利離

場。建議保留和持有核心倉盤，直到重要

趨勢線破位方才賣出，此法在持續上漲或

反彈時期十分奏效。

If short term trendline break then lighten down and expect a consolidation pattern to manifest. These reactive patterns could take two forms: a slightly downward angled pullback or

a horizontal box like range. In the first case you may wish to wait for a breakout of the reactive channel before moving back in. Sometimes these corrections may actually show a trend reversal and not recovery back for a long time – no need to preempt this possibility. The second type should be a little easier to handle as range trading can easily cope with the clear rectangular range. Buy into support dips and look to profit take near its range highs… and do this until a range break can be shown. A breakout should also be followed with a buy back while a support break should keep you away until the next opportunity shows. 短期趨勢線破位便要減倉，做好準備迎

接回調，常為兩種形態：輕微回落或水平

整固。若為第一種，應待突破上軌後方可

入場。有時這種調整或許預示趨勢逆轉，

反彈不會太久，此風險不可不防。第二種

形態較易處理，因有清晰的矩形區間，區

間交易難度不大。低買高賣，直至突破區

間整理，向上突破則進場入貨，跌破支撐

則離場觀望，等待下個機遇。

Follow the uptrend trading plan till the end… 既定策略貫徹到底

As market direction continues to play out it advancing role, our mechanisms to follow trends upwards should proceed but be more conscious of overbought

conditions this time around. Thus our strategies to Hold or trade through dips should be upheld so long as our major support zones are not violated. Use your trendlines and/or the 32-day Moving Average as your immediate support stops.市場保持上升趨勢，投資者應順

勢而為，惟現時須加倍當心超

買。只要關鍵支撐位不破，就堅

定貫徹繼續持倉或趁低吸納的策

略。可將趨勢線及／或32日均線

作為支撐止損位。

Bargain hunt after reactions, seeing:回調時的趁低吸納機遇：

Reactions that show higher �lows while in channels軌道內底部抬高，

Pullbacks to your supoportive �moving average or trendlines回落到支撐均線或趨勢線

A push out of consolidation ranges such �as the two earlier discussed突破整理區間，如上文所述二例

Remember to be wary of: 切記：

Running after prices when RSIs are �greater than 70%+RSI超逾70%果斷離場

Or when prices run quite far from their �short term moving averages (16 or 32-day) marking risk potnetial to be quite high股價上漲遠離短期均線（16天或32天）意味風險偏高，宜儘早出貨

Thus with trend directions still being clearly upward the bias is to proceed with our earlier strategies and capitalize on such formidable trend movement so long as momentum maintains itself. Once topping out gestures are spotted we shall review the treat level and accordingly adjust the strategies to be one of more defensiveness. So for now, we do not mess with a good thing but instead learn to patiently ride the advancing train. 只要上升趨勢清晰且勢頭不減，我們便

遵循既定策略，充份把握漲勢。一旦發現

見頂跡象，則應研判形勢，據此調整策略

防範風險。此策略迄今尚無破綻，投資者

應戒驕戒躁，穩坐上漲順風車。|AT|

Channel Trading

Waiting out reactions

Profit Take

Buy off Support

軌道內交易

等待回調結束

獲利了結

下軌支撐買入

Buy Breakout突破上軌買入

Range trade until a pattern break is shown區間交易以待形態突破

Technical Overview of Markets 57


Nikkei 225 (Japan)Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

10,078 9,550 10,700 11,500

Shanghai Composite (China) Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

2,813 2,639 3,073 3,478

Nikkei stuck in a boxThe Nikkei proceeds to move sidewards, boxed into a consolidating swing. Its pattern is coming close to another decision period as its up trendline is pressing prices to make a clear decision soon. Keep a close eye on support and its trendline low at 10,078 – a break of this may set prices to correct further looking at 9,550. If support holds then proceed to range trade its pattern by buying near the support of 10,078 in lieu of a potential breakout.

STRATEGY: Range trade this index so long as the pattern holds. Its MACD drawing back to a full correction gives enough potential for the index to make a strong comeback – so keep this index under your radar.

Shanghai Index corrects back to 130-dayMA Shanghai’s Composite recovered to expected resistance but may encounter some renewed pressure here. Prices may need to reconsolidate here and give time for demand to work on overhanging supply. An expected range may then form within 3,073 and 2,813 – hoping that a higher low can materialize to strengthen the resolve of demand. Support has now been adjusted to 2,813 to 2,639.

STRATEGY: As the short-term trendline has recently been broken, a sell into strength or lighten is offered. If indeed the expected range forms then look to reposition closer to supportive areas and profit take near 3,073. This index would still be subject to sudden fallbacks given that its major trendline has been broken in its last spillover.

-500

100

Sept 29Aug 29 Oct 31 Nov 28 Dec 30 Jan 30 Feb 27 Mar 31 Apr 30 May 29 Jun 30 Jul 31

50

7000

8000

9000

12000

13000

14000

11000

15000

Aug 31

2008

3073.438

51.56

21.1630

10370.5410078.63

9556.23

MACD on Close (12,26)Signal on Close (9)MACD2 on Close

21.163037.4209-16.2580

RSI on Close (14) 51.56

LastHigh on 08/29/08AverageLOw on 10/28/08SMAVG on Close (65)SMAVG on Close (32)SMAVG on Close (260)SMAVG on Close (130)

10370.5413079.379343.206994.9010078.633810398.71009277.38779556.2344

9277.39

-100

100


50

1500

2000

2500

3500

4000

Aug 31

2008

49.07

4462.54

3073.438

2962.667

2813.561

2421.006

4693.70


2962.6673478.0102420.3941664.9253073.43752971.36962421 .00632813.5610


-7.3806-34.478527.0979


-7.3806

58


ATIR Market Report

Set Index (Thailand)Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

685-665 630 715 787

Jakarta Composite (Indonesia) Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

2,364 2,228 2,513 2,770

19.3688

708.75

1.7165


19.368817.65231.7165


Sept30Aug 29 Oct 31 Nov 28 Dec 31 Jan 30 Feb 27 Mar 31 Apr 30 May 29 Jun 30 Jul 31 Aug 31

2008

800

600

500

400

-40

100

50

564.29

522.58

630.63

100

71.60

LastHigh on 09/17/09AverageLow on 11/26/08SMAVG on Close (65)SMAVG on Close (32)SMAVG on Close (260)SMAVG on Close (130)

708.75719.76524.91380.05630.6321665.5538522.5811564.2903 665.55

700

-100

0

100


50

1000

1200

1400

2000

2200

1600

1800

2400

Aug 31

2008


37.725633.06114.6645



2456.9862474.7881710.0891089.3402228.34252364.82011710.08891961.1565

ATIR Market Report 59


The Set maintains its advance The Thai Set index continued to express its upward thrust and has done so quite strongly. After breaking above its resistance in the beginning of September, the index kicked up a more forceful advance – but this may need to exercise some corrective action soon. RSI indications do show overbought conditions and may assert some pause or consolidation time into the short term. The distance to its stronger support does stand a distance away, showing itself at 685 to 665.

STRATEGY: A Hold stands with attention given to its faster up trendline and 16-day moving average presently at 685 used as a stop. A better buy would stem closer to this short term support. Look to take some profits if prices slide into a sidewards shift prompting the MACD to cross down.

The JCI breaks resistance and flows upJakarta’s Composite index managed to break through its resistance and continues on with its uptrend. Coming off a 1-month consolidation, the index may again try to work itself higher looking for its next resistance. These supply zones are estimated closer to 2,513 or 2,770, offering yet another trading window. Support is now raised to 2,364 as is sighted by its 32-day moving average and its MACD and RSI have also shown some recovery backing up the renewed demand swing.

STRATEGY: A trading buy surfaced after its breakout and now heralds a Hold. Watch support carefully as prices continue to tread its ways upward. Proceed to look for buy-ins as during opportune reactions that come closer to short term moving averages.

KLSE Composite (Malaysia)Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

1,184 1,144 1,280 1,305

PSE Index (Philippines) Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

2,693-2,671 2,558 2,900 3,100

STRATEGY: Range Trade the channel or hold as long as the supportive 32-day MA does not break. Look for profit taking measures only if prices continue to push up without too much reactive time… particularly if prices close into range highs. RSI levels have already crossed higher than 70, so this should air some need to be prudent about buying into this rush.

The PSEi keeps to its ranges The Philippine Composite moved to consolidate after an earlier breach of support (trendline and 32-day MA) forced on the sideways approach. This shifts the index to some lightening or range trading. Moreover weak MACD readings also acknowledges the consolidation period. Thus only a resistance break or higher low action can return the upward bias – a buy would resurface from any of these two prompts. Meanwhile expect a boxed range to develop.

STRATEGY: Range trade: Resistance at 2,906 – next support at 2,693. The short term support break pushes in a horizontal condition and should give traders a sidelined position unless a successful support bounce offers a ranged buy or a resistance break can clue in a breakout buy above 2,900.

21.163021.1630

100


50

800

-40

900

1000

1200

1300

1100

Aug 28

2008

3073.438

989.42

1066.86

1144.10

1184.83

1218.38

71.97

14.7202MACD on Close (12,26)Signal on Close (9)MACD2 on Close

14.720212.7793-1.9409



1218.381220.47991.73801.271144.09681184.8313989.41501066.8586

100


50

1600

1800

-100

2000

2200

3000

3200

2600

Aug 28

2008

3073.438

2408.33

2247.51

2671.38

1144.102789.33

49.18

21.163021.163010.8776


10.877626.0674-15.1898



2789.332906.562250.621684.752671.37792823.30032247.50812408.3264

ATIR Market Report60


Malaysia continues to channel upThe KLSE index proceeds with its advance and has done quite well holding its sway higher after bouncing from support. A channel continues to guide prices along its advance and maintains its supportive structure along the 32-day moving average, presently at 1,184. MACD readings still look fine but overbought levels are starting to show given the two week push. Upsides are seen closer to 1,280 to 1,305.

Straits Times Index (Singapore)Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

2,614 2,507 2,707 3,000

Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong) Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

20,585 19,721 23,370 26,300

STRATEGY: A Range Trade is also recommended for the index looking for better buys near its 2,614 support. Also use this support site to host one’s stop. A push above 2,707 should be able to give a necessary boost to scale higher looking at a potential target of 2,900 to 3,000.

STRATEGY: A Hold or range trade is advised for the HSI as the short and medium term trends are angling upwards. A support stop is placed at 20,585 this being the 32-day moving average. A break of this will be the only trigger to sell and oversee a wider pullback to 19,721.

The STI feeling its support at the trendlineSingapore Straits Times Index showed a corrective consolidation but keeps its advance in trend. Its consolidation time may be coming to an end and a major decision to move must soon be made. Given that no sell triggers have surfaced, a Hold is still in order looking for a buy condition if prices can breach recent highs and resistance at 2,707. Support is also close by and should put up a brace for prices to try to prod higher offering an entry window.

Hang Seng swing back upwardsThe HSI has shifted back into its advance after scaling over its recent consolidation. This should give it the push necessary to try its range highs at 23,000 to 23,370. Some volatility may still continue as it proceeds to encounter some pressure because of the China’s reactive consolidation, but as long as support levels hold an opportunity to buy closer to support stands. Overbought levels have yet to be seen and should only be a problem if prices come closer to the higher end of its range.

29.0953

2613.902663.46

-1.3177


29.095330.4131-1.3177



2008

3000

20000

2000

1500

-100

100

50

2272.48

2061.93

2507.02


2663.462763.422090.051455.472507.01862613.89752061.92702272.4812

100

57.79

21623.45

19721.69

20585.52


21623.4521929.7916418.1610676.2919721.693420585.515616294.201217902.8887


377.0083269.1474107.8609



2008

24000

20000

18000

16000

14000

12000

10000

0

-1000

100

50

26000

22000

17902.89

16294.20



Kospi (South Korea) Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

1,606 1,528 1,780 1,900

All Ordinaries Index (Australia) Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

4,462 4,214 5,000 5,250

STRATEGY: A Hold is also maintained in the Kospi. But be rather watchful of a possible reaction given that overbought pressure may soon start to give into choppiness. Follow stop using your 32-day Moving Average.

STRATEGY: A Hold is still offered looking at some lightening closer to next resistance at 5,000. Use reactions that close in on support (4,462-4,214) as better windows to buy back.

The Kospi accelerates to a new recent highThe Kospi has pushed into advanced gear, racing further upwards into a new 2009 high. Its recent break above an earlier consolidation (first half of September), may allow for more upside… looking for 1,780 to 1,800 as its first target. Unfortunately major support (now seen at the 32-day moving average at 1,606) is a little far and expresses a high level of downside risk for new positions. Moreover some overbought conditions are showing which may soon disrupt the advance to show some reaction time.

Australia extends its upward poiseThe All Ordinaries proceed to show strong motives to climb. A breach of its channel may even force on some possible acceleration. However its strength comes at a price of being overstretched and may soon need some consolidation time to fix this extendedness. A pullback towards support may offer better opening for a new buy however in line with seeing a reaction temper overbought conditions. As it stands the index has its eyes on attempting to work on hitting 5,000.

33.4015

1699.71

5.1134MACD on Close (12,26)Signal on Close (9)MACD2 on Close

33.401528.28815.1134



2008

1800

1400

1200

1000

-100

100

50

1437.95

1304.13

1528.68

100

72.90


1699.711713.221311.62892.161528.68481606.34721304.12591437.9512

1606.35

-200

100

Sept30Aug 29 Oct 31 Nov 28 Dec 31 Jan 30 Feb 27 Mar 31 Apr 30 May 29 Jun 30 Jul 31

50

3000

3500

5000

5500

6000

Aug 31

2008


4693.705250.403942.573090.804214.33694462.54053876.81493982.6355


92.798783.03099.7678

RSI on Close (14) 70.9370.93

3982.643876.81

97678

4214.34

4462.54

92.7987

4693.70



Dow Jones Industrials (U.S.)Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

9,472 9,067 10,000 11,200

NASDAQ (U.S.) Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

2,026 1,947 2,167-2,190 2,473

STRATEGY: The Dow proceeds to maintain an upward range trade offer, looking for buys into dips that do not break support. A better buy-in would surface from a pullback closer to support which presently stands at 9,472. Momentum has yet to gear up which means that its rise may be quite choppy. So patiently allow your support stops to exit or use resistance zones to profit take.

STRATEGY: A Hold or range trade is issued for the index as it proceeds to climb the staircase of its channel. A support stop is raised to 2,026 in prospect for a rally move to 2,190 or 2,473.

The Dow holds on to its upward strideThe Dow continues to drive upwards and again tags overbought levels. The recent up move may be coming towards the high end of its short term target and may need to pause or consolidate to fix its rush. Keep watch of short term moving averages to host your rising support zones. Next short term support stop placed at 9,472; major support adjusted to 9,067. Resistance now calibrated to 10,000 then 11,200.

NASDAQ tests range highsThe NASDAQ managed to rally strongly in the last two weeks and has breathed new life into its advance. And as no divergences are spotted a good chance remains to allow the rally to widen. Its recent strength however has opened overbought levels once again (RSI now at 73%) – and this phenomenon could provide resistance pressure to start inducing some choppiness as evidence of some profit taking. A pullback or pattern may be necessary to stem such extendedness.


137.8645122.778315.086



2008

13000

11000

10000

9000

-400

100

50

0


9783.9211790.178776.026469.959027.88879441.56848662.39558600.1143

12000

8000

7000

19.3688

1.7165


42.826334.89947.9269



2008

2400

2000

1800

1600

-100

100

50

564.29

522.58

630.63

0

71.60


2138.042417.631748.861265.521947.51872026.67291719.52511818.9702

665.55

2200

1200

1400



S&P 500 (U.S.) Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

1,018 978 1,120 1,265

STRATEGY: A Hold or range trade is issued – looking for entries into pullbacks or dips that effect some narrowing in present overbought levels. A buy back closer to support zones is preferably called for with short term support now carried at 1,018. Upside targets picture a potential swing to 1,120 and 1,265.



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The SP500 stands on resistance The SP500 recently engaged a new recent high testing its trading range high. A channeled range may give away to some acceleration but overbought levels may prove to be a concern. Range trade its range highs and short term support. Proceed to watch over its 32-day MA support which stands at 1,018. But as long as the channel holds and no divergences show, the capacity for the index to resume its advance is strong.

19.3688

1.7165


17.979714.87003.1097



2008

1400

1200

1000

900

-50

100

50

564.29

522.58

630.63

0

71.60


1065.491303.04932.05666.79974.02571018.6209917.6158922.8963

665.55

1300

700

800

1100

“Ever since I’ve been wearing this watch my stress

is mostly gone.”

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Visit our Philip Stein boutiques at: 6750 Ayala Ave., The Podium Mall, SM City North Edsa

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“Ever since I’ve been wearing this watch my stress

is mostly gone.”

www.PhilipStein.com

Visit our Philip Stein boutiques at: 6750 Ayala Ave., The Podium Mall, SM City North Edsa

Also available at all Lucerne, Chronos, Swiss Gear and Wrist_pod stores

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