Asian Eye for the Slovene Guy
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Transcript of Asian Eye for the Slovene Guy
• CEO, Plus Eight Star | www.plus8star.com – Best pracKces from Asia’s digital space – Research, Strategy & “InnovaKon Arbitrage”
• Speaker 100+ talks in 16 countries
• Advisor
• Investor in Asia-‐based global companies
Angel Investor, Advisor, Keynote Speaker
My Interests
• Mix Technology, Psychology & Sociology – Virtual economies
– Digital third places – Online social dynamics – ArKficial arKficial intelligence (AAI)
• (And also) – Languages, MarKal arts, Drawing
Kimba the White Lion (Japan, 1965)
The Lion King (US, 1994)
“Even our lawyers are not that good” – a Disney animator (rumor)
“Techno-‐Darwinism” Digital EvoluKonary Theory
a) ReplicaKon b) MutaKon
c) Natural SelecKon d) Luck!
Dodo (extinct)
5C’s of InnovaKon™ Ecosystem Factors for Survival
1. Copy 2. CompeKKon
3. CombinaKon
4. Constraints 5. Context
Broadband Ecosystems
Countries
#1 Korea 14 Mbps #2 HongKong 9.2 Mbps
#3 Japan 8.5 Mbps …
#12 US 5.0 Mbps
CiOes
#1 Taegu (KR) 18.3M #2-‐11 Korea
#12-‐45 Korea & Japan …
#46 Hong Kong
#48 Constanta (Romania) #52 Asnieres (France)
#57 San Jose (US) 8.3Mbps
Japan Overview
• 98% 3G (114 million 3G subs) – 2/3 flat rate – NTT DoCoMo launched LTE in 2010.12
• Devices – Flash on most phones
– Foreign phones <10% market – IC Cards
3G Success?
• NOT video phones
• Small data – Social networks – Casual games – Mobile commerce
– Entertainment – NavigaKon
1,822 2,167 2,645 3,200 3,666 4,272 4,835 5,525 1,212 1,736
2,634
4,139 5,641
7,329
8,869 9,681
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Commerce Content
Content vs. Commerce
• Commerce $9.6B ($90/user/year) – eBay = $2B in 2010 (from $600M in 2009).
Million USD
Source: Japan Mobile Content Forum, 2010
Commerce = Content
TOTAL 15,2 billion USD
843 759 748
55 69 29 158
248
3 63
125 45 5 24
187
74
231
402
1,201
884
228
500
115 191 226
99 97
241
121
447
112
241
66
354
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2006
2009
Mobile Services
• Full songs, games, SNS, Avatars, etc.
Million USD
Source: Japan Mobile Content Forum, 2010
Mobile Social Networks
• 3 Mobile SNS listed on stock market – DeNA (Mobage = “Mobile Game Town”)
– GREE (from “Six DeGREEs”) – Mixi (iniKally a Friendster adaptaKon)
• 20M users each (some in common)
Mobile Social Gaming
• Self-‐published + Open plavorms
Some ads
SNS +
Free games +
Virtual goods Homepage
Revenue Model
• Digital goods 80% – Casual Games
– Avatars
• Open plavorm – Third party content
• AdverKsing <20%
Impact
• 2000 | First wave (2G)
• 2004 | Second wave (2.5G) – (I helped an M&A in Europe for 18MEUR)
• 2010 | Third wave (3G) – Revenue 2010: $1.2B for Mobage, $600M for GREE – DeNA buys ngmoco in US ($400M)
• Another $500M to spend next year! – GREE has $250M in the bank
Zappallas “The Spirit inside You”
• WTF?
• Service – $3/month – 2.2M paying users
• Revenue – 50 MEUR in 6 months (net profit: 8.5 MEUR) – Listed on stock market (150 MEUR)
Eki-‐Tan Mobile NavigaKon
• Started in 1997 as spin-‐off of Toshiba
• 1,500 staKons, weather forecast, flights and hotel booking, etc.
• 850,000 subs. pay $3/month (20% margin)
• IPO in March 2011
Tonchidot
• “Look up! Not down.”
• AR as a service
• Campaigns
• Funding: $16M – KDDI, DCM, JAFCO, etc.
Korea | Missed Opportunity
• 1994: First CMDA network
• 2001: CDMA 1x deployed
• Now transiKoning to HSPA
• Korean mobile startups??
Korea | IT Exports
• $140bln in 2010 – Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy (MKE)
• iPad + iPhone 4 – Designed in California – Assembled in China
– Parts made in Korea
China Market Overview
• China Mobile – 584M users (= Facebook, but different users!)
– 25 Bln EUR in 6 months (6.5B net profit) – Monthly Net adds:
Mobile Services
• Operators
• Content providers ups ands downs
• Fragmented app stores market – China Mobile, China Unicom, China Telecom – Nokia, Motorola, Samsung, … – Local phones using MediaTek plavorm
(Internet)
• Tencent | World’s #3 Internet company – $2.5B revenue – 42% net profit – $45B market cap
• 10 Online game companies listed
• Youku (“YouTube of China”) and DangDang (“Amazon of China”) just listed too for billions.
Mobile Couponing | Huicard
• Usual story: stores pay
• Would users pay for coupons?
• Lower entry barrier
• Combine with search + large directory
• Charge 10 cents per coupon
(Mystery Startup)
• Lots of content providers
• Lots of websites who can’t moneKze
• What do you do?
PHOTO: MOBILE PHONE, BEIJING, APRIL 2010 © Benjamin Joffe / Plus Eight Star Ltd.
Hardware InnovaOon: “Shanzhai” (山寨)
Design Your Own Mobile!
• Design teams < 10 people
• Factories take orders from 5,000 units
• Cost < 50 EUR
Cmune in Beijing Seeks Talent!
• #1 FPS on Facebook – InternaKonal team
– Top Unity game on FB – More Ktles to come!
• Check it out! – www.facebook.com/uberstrike – www.uberstrike.com
Hvala!
www.plus8star.com
benjaminjoffe
@benjaminjoffe
www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminjoffe
www.slideshare.net/plus8star
+81 | Japan
+82 | Korea
+86 | China
Telecom & Internet
+ Added Value
* High quality