Asian Development Bank - World Bankpubdocs.worldbank.org/en/713791574195166712/pdf/ICP-TAG04-S2...
Transcript of Asian Development Bank - World Bankpubdocs.worldbank.org/en/713791574195166712/pdf/ICP-TAG04-S2...
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Approach to Comparisons of Housing Expenditures - 2017 ICP in Asia and the Pacific
A Linked Rental and Volume Approach with Additional Quality Adjustments
Asian Development BankKaushal Joshi
4th Meeting of the ICP Technical Advisory Group
October 28-29, 2019, Washington, DC
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▪ Background: Concerns in Asia and the Pacific
▪ ICP 2011 approach
▪ ICP 2017 approach: ADB Approach
▪ TAG asks: Issues and concerns
Content
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Background
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Concerns in Asia and the Pacific
▪ Lack of representative/functional rental markets in
many countries
▪ Share of rented dwellings in more than half of the
economies is below 20%
▪ Heterogeneity in the composition of the participating
economies
▪ Low to high income
▪ Low to high population
▪ Fully urban to largely rural
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ICP 2011 Approach
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ICP 2011 Approach
▪ Both direct rent and direct volume approaches were
attempted in 2011 ICP
▪ Lack of rental data for some countries
▪ Gaps in Volume data, too many imputations and ‘gap-filling’
▪ Data of uncertain quality, which are often incomparable,
▪ Quality differences across countries not adequately captured
by the indicators used
▪ Implausible results from both approaches
▪ Weaknesses in capturing housing expenditures especially for
owner-occupied dwellings in national accounts in the GDP
▪ Conclusion:
▪ Reference Volume Approach
▪ Relative volumes of housing services between
economies are equal to the relative volume of
household expenditures (excluding rents)
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ICP 2017 Approach
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ICP 2017 Approach
▪ Again, both direct rent and direct volume
approaches were attempted in 2017 ICP
▪ Efforts to collect complete data, minimize data
gaps/gap filling, rigorous data validation,
▪Not all countries could provide nationally
representative rentals surveys
▪Results however, suggest that the PPPs, PLIs and
relative levels of per capita housing again from the
two approaches are implausible for many countries
▪Both the approaches independently fail to
adequately account for the differences in the quality
of dwellings
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Proposed Housing Approach (1)
Select Reliable
PPPs from
Direct Quantity
Approach
Rental DataQuantity Data
+ Quality Indicators
Rental PPPs
Real Expenditures
Housing Volumes
Implied Housing PPPs
Quality Adjustment Using Relative
Per Capita Expenditure
PPPadj = PPP x sqrt(Real PCHK/Real
PCcountry)
Quality Adjustment using Urbanization
rates
PPPadj = PPP x (Urb. Rate HK/Urb.
Rate country)
Select Reliable
PPPs from
Rental Approach
Compute Linking
Factor
Combined Housing PPPs and Real Expenditures
The New ADB Approach to Housing Comparisons
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Proposed Housing Approach (2)
Steps on Linking
Step 1: Identify good and reliable rental PPPs and indirect PPPs from
direct quantity approach
Step 2: Identify economies for linking/filling gaps in PPPs
Step 3: Convert rental PPPs to estimate Volume PPPs and vice versa
for countries with PPPs available from only one approach using the
linking factor – thus all countries will have PPPs from rental and
volume approaches
Step 4: Final PPs are calculated as the geometric mean of the two
sets of rental and volume-based PPPs
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Issues and concerns
▪ Adjustments (i.e., full or partial)
▪ Selecting link economies
▪ Sustainability of the method
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THANK YOU
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