ASIA’S JOURNEYsdgcenter.unpad.ac.id/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/... · Sub-Saharan Africa 1.6 1.6...
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Titik Anas, P.hD ASIA’S JOURNEY TO PROSPERITY Policy, Market and Technology over 50 Years
Transcript of ASIA’S JOURNEYsdgcenter.unpad.ac.id/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/... · Sub-Saharan Africa 1.6 1.6...
Titik Anas, P.hD
ASIA’S JOURNEY TO PROSPERITY
Policy, Market and
Technology over 50 Years
THE BOOK DESCRIBES THE SUCCESSFUL ASIAN JOURNEY 58 years!
• The book comprehensively discusses the progress to prosperity – the importance of efficient market, effective policy and governance in the process.
• Washington Consensus works!
with Asia’s style : gradual and sequential.
The book discuss the outcomes of 50 years of development and how Asia achieve it.
It is a good lessons for less developed Asia countries and other regions
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THE SUCCESS FACTORS
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Market
and
private
sectors
Structural
Transform
ation
Education
and health
Domestic
savings
Technolo
gical
progress
Poverty
Reduction
Land
reform
Infastructure
Open
Trade and
Investment
Gender
Inequality
Bilateral
and
Multilatera
l
Developm
ent
Environment
Regional
Cooperation
Table1. Average Annual Per Capita GDP Growth (%)
As a result, developing Asia’s annual growth in per capita gross domestic product (GDP) averaged 4.7% between 1960 and 2018, the highest among regions worldwide.
1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2009 2010-2018 1960-2018
Developing Asia 2.2 4 5 4.9 6.2 5.5 4.7
Central Asia ... ... ... (5.4) 7.8 3.1 2
East Asia 2.7 6.4 7.6 7.4 8 6.4 6.5
People's Republic of China 1.2 5.3 8.2 8.8 9.7 7.3 6.8
South Asia 1.9 0.6 3.1 3.3 4.3 5.3 3.1
India 1.8 0.6 3.3 3.7 4.6 5.8 3.3
Southeast Asia 2.2 4.5 3 3.2 3.7 4.1 3.5
The Pacific 3.7 2 (1.1) 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.5
NIEs 6.4 8.1 6.9 5.4 3.8 3.1 5.6
Developed Asia 8.1 2.8 3.4 1.3 0.7 1.5 2.9
Japan 9.1 3.1 3.7 1.2 0.4 1.5 3.1
Latin American and the Caribbean 2.7 3.6 0 1 1.7 1.1 1.7
Sub-Saharan Africa 1.6 1.6 (1.3) (0.8) 2.5 0.9 0.7
OECD 4.3 2.5 2.2 1.8 1 1.4 2.2
World 3.5 2.1 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.8 1.9
… = data not available, ( ) = negative, 0.0 = magnitude is less than half of unit employed, GDP = gross domestic product, NIEs = newly industrialized economies, OECD = Organisation for
Economic Co-operation and Development.
Sources: Asian Development Bank. Key Indicators Database. https://kidb.adb.org/kidb (accessed 2 August 2019); World Bank. World Development Indicators. https://data.worldbank.org
(accessed 2 August 2019); and Asian Development Bank estimates.
THE BOOK ALSO ELABORATES
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How Asia transforms from low income, agrarian economy to manufacturing powerhouse,
high income (this is also China, Singapore, Korea phenomenon rather than developing
countries)
However, the success of Asia, however, is much dominated and driven by a few countries.
Much of the indicators, when lumped together as developing Asia, is much of the China story
than developing Asia in general.
Table2. GDP Per Capita (Constant 2010 US Dollar)
1960 1990 20182018/1990
2018/
1960
Developing Asia 330 1078 4903 4.5 14.9
Bangladesh 372 411 1203 2.9 3.2
India 330 581 2104 3.6 6.4
Indonesia 690 1708 4285 2.5 6.2
Malaysia 1354 4537 12109 2.7 8.9
Papua New Guinea 1012 1393 2400 1.7 2.4
People's Republic of China 192 729 7755 10.6 40.4
Philippines 1059 1527 3022 2.0 2.9
Republic of Korea 944 8465 26762 3.2 28.3
Singapore 3503 22572 58248 2.6 16.6
Taipei, China 919 7691 23113 3.0 25.2
Thailand 571 2504 6362 2.5 11.1
Pakistan 304 741 1198 1.6 3.9
Nepal 263 354 817 2.3 3.1
Myanmar 153 194 1572 8.1 10.3
Fiji, Republic of 1774 2927 4795 2.7
Kazakhstan ... 5890 11166
Uzbekistan ... 1003 2027
Viet Nam ... 433 1964
Afghanistan ... ... 564
Tajikistan ... 1283 1073
1960 1990 20182018/1990
2018/1960
Timor-Leste ... ... 2760
Tonga ... 2547 4055 1.6
Tuvalu ... 2406 3636 1.5
Vanuatu ... 2566 2875 1.1
Developed Asia 9685 37519 49857 1.3 5.1
Australia 19378 35913 56919 1.6 2.9
Japan 8608 38074 48920 1.3 5.7
New Zealand ... 25126 37997 1.5
OECD 11499 27337 39937 1.5 3.5
United States 16982 35702 54554 1.5 3.2
World 3758 7186 10882 1.5 2.9
… = data not available, OECD = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Sources: Asian Development Bank. Key Indicators Database. https://kidb.adb.org/kidb (accessed 8 February 2020); World Bank. World Development Indicators. https://data.worldbank.org
(accessed 8 February 2020); and Asian Development Bank estimates; UNCTAD https://unctadstat.unctad.org (accessed 8 February 2020)
1960 1990 20182018/1990
2018/1960
Turkmenistan ... 3713 7648 2.1
Mongolia ... 1761 4210 2.4
Hong kong, China ... 18251 38781 2.1
Bhutan ... 799 3173 4.0
Maldives ... ... 8033
Sri Lanka ... 1190 2936 2.5
Cambodia ... ... 1205
Lao People's Democratic Republic ... 462 1786 3.9
Armenia ... 1797 4407 2.5
Azerbaijan ... 3167 5769 1.8
Georgia ... 3698 4721 1.3
Brunei Darussalam ... 37081 31437 0.8
Kyrgyz Republic ... 1096 1087 1.0
Cook Islands ... 9431 18412 2.0
Kiribati ... 1683 1762 1.0
Micronesia, Federated States of ... 2445 10803 4.4
Nauru ... ... 10910
Niue ... ... ...
Palau ... ... 12260
Marshall Islands ... 2669 3067 1.1
Samoa ... 2408 3749 1.6
Solomon Islands ... 1299 1483 1.1
Figure 1. Global GDP Shares, 1960 and 2018
The developing Asia’s share of global GDP increased from 4.1% to 24.0% - with 56% contributes by China.
*Calculated fromWorld Development Indicator, World Bank https://data.worldbank.org (accessed 9 February 2019).
GDP = gross domestic product
Notes: For 1960, data for the Middle East and North Africa refer to 1968 and data for New Zealand refer to 197o. Shares calculated using GDP in constant 2010 United States dollar.
Sources: Asian Development Bank. Key Indicators Database. https://kidb.adb.org/kidb (accessed 2 August 2019); and World Bank. World Development Indicators.
https://data.worldbank.org (accessed 2 August 2019).
Developing Asia
4.1%
Japan
7.0%
Australia and New
Zealand
2.2%
Latin America
and the
Caribbean
7.1%Middle East and
North Africa
3.9%
Sub-Saharan Africa
2.2%
North America
30.6%
European Union
36.2%
Rest of the World
6.6%
1960
Developing Asia
24.0%
Japan
7.5%
Australia and
New Zealand
1.9%
Latin America and
the Caribbean
7.4%Middle East and
North Africa
4.3%Sub-Saharan Africa
2.2%
North America
23.9%
European Union
23.2%
Rest of the World
5.6%
2018
China
56%
Rest of
Develo
ping
Asia
44%
Developing Asia
CH 9. DISCUSSES TRADE, FDI AND OPENNESS IN ASIAas important factors to prosperity
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THE BOOK ALSO DESCRIBES THE THREE EVOLUTIONARY STAGES THAT ASIA GOES THROUGH
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From import substitution to outward oriented to later integration to GVC
With large variation across countries
INDONESIA HAS MUCH TO CATCH UP
The book provides lesson learnt for Indonesia – on how to be prosperous
To be the top achievers, Indonesia should not embark on policies which have proven leads it the other way.
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THE REMAINING ISSUESHuge gap of achievements among Asian countries.
How Asia deals with it? What Asia does to those left behind? Not much discussed in the book.
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