ASEAN Snapshot May 2018 - UOB Group · 2018-05-11 · ASEAN Snapshot Special Coverage On Tourism...

ASEAN SnapshotSpecial Coverage On Tourism

May 2018

Source: IMF WEO, CIA Factbook, UOB Global Economics & Markets ResearchNote: GDP at current prices, 2017 FDI is UOB’s estimation, 2030 figures for Population, GDP, Trade & FDI are UOB’s forecast

May 2018 I ASEAN Snapshot

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was established on 08 August 1967 in Bangkok, Thailand, with the signing of the ASEAN Declaration.

ASEAN-10 was formed when the 10th member state joined on 30 April 1999. The member states are Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

Last year, ASEAN celebrated its 50th anniversary of establishment (1967-2017). From five founding Member States in 1967 to ten now, ASEAN’s economy has expanded over 100-fold since its establishment.

The 32nd ASEAN summit was held in Singapore from 25-28 April as part of its chairmanship of ASEAN this year. Key takeaways:

▪ ASEAN Leaders’ Vision for a Resilient and Innovative ASEAN, adopted as the guiding document to achieve ASEAN’s 2018 goals ▪ Establishment of the ASEAN Smart Cities Network▪ ASEAN Leaders’ Statement on Cybersecurity Cooperation adopted▪ Finalisation of the Model ASEAN Extradition Treaty▪ Singapore-ASEAN Youth Fund renewed with a USD 3.8 million top-up by Singapore

Brunei

United Kingdom

From:

Year:

ASEAN COUNTRIESDECLARED INDEPENDENCE

France Netherlands France United Kingdom

United Kingdom

Spain/United States

Federation of Malaysia

Traditional Founding

Date

France

Cambodia Indonesia Laos Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

1984 1953 1945 1949 1957 1948 1946 1965 1238 1945

ASEAN ESTABLISHMENT

08 August 1967IndonesiaMalaysiaPhilippinesSingaporeThailand

07 January 1984Brunei

28 July 1995Vietnam

23 July 1997Lao PDRMyanmar

30 April 1999Cambodia

2007 2017 2030

567643

749

1.4

2.8

6.6

1.62.6

4.5

83.8114.5

328.3

2007 2017 2030 2007 2017 2030 2007 2017 2030

ASEAN ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

$

POPULATION GDP FDITRADEUSD Trillion USD Trillion USD BillionMillion Persons

Source: IMF WEO, UOB Global Economics & Markets ResearchNote: Data as of 2017 otherwise stated, GDP at current prices, 2017 FDI & 2030 GDP per capita are UOB’s estimation & forecast, Trade refers to merchandise total exports & imports


ASEAN COUNTRIESECONOMIC PROGRESS

GDP per Capita (USD)

200720172030

Population: 52.6mnGDP: USD 66.5bnTrade: USD 29.8bnFDI: USD 1.4bn


6281,390

2,588

CAMBODIA

MYANMAR LAOS VIETNAM THAILAND PHILIPPINES

MALAYSIAPopulation: 32.1mnGDP: USD 314.5bnTrade: USD 413.0bnFDI: USD 10.9bn

Population: 5.6mnGDP: USD 323.9 bnTrade: USD 700.9bnFDI: USD 62.7bn

Population: 262.0mnGDP: USD 1,015.4bnTrade: USD 325.5bnFDI: USD 16.4bn






7,3799,813

20,631

39,22457,713

81,85034,811

29,71245,140

2,0643,876

6,507

1,6842,976

5,311

3,9786,591

11,509

9202,354

4,842

8222,542

4,803

4781,264

2,752

SINGAPORE BRUNEI INDONESIA

ASEAN ECONOMIC PROGRESS

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into ASEAN grew 37% to USD 114.5 billion in 2017 from USD 83.8 billion a decade ago.

ASEAN was ranked 3rd highest in the world for FDI inflows in 2017.

2007 GDP Current Prices, USD Trillion

United StatesJapanChina

GermanyUnited Kingdom

FranceItaly

SpainCanadaRussiaBrazil

ASEAN 1.4

14.54.5

2.8

19.4

1.5

2017 GDP Current Prices, USD Trillion

United StatesChinaJapan

GermanyASEAN

United KingdomIndia

FranceBrazil

ItalyCanada

Korea

2017 TOTAL TRADE: TOP 10 RANKING IN THE WORLDUSD Trillion

USACHINA4.1 4.0

2.6

1.21.4

2.6GERMANY ASEAN

NETHERLANDSJAPAN

2007 FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI)USD Billion

United StatesUnited Kingdom

CanadaNetherlands

BelgiumASEAN

ChinaGermany

SpainFrance

Hong KongRussian Federation

83.8

216.0

54.9

2017 FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI)USD Billion

114.5

256.9

47.1

United StatesChina

ASEANHong Kong

United KingdomBrazil

SingaporeBritish Virgin Islands

IrelandNetherlands

CanadaAustralia

Source: ASEANstats, IMF WEO, UNCTAD, Bloomberg, UOB Global Economics & Markets ResearchNote: 2017 GDP figure is IMF’s estimation, 2017 FDI figure is UOB’s estimation

1.11.2HONG KONGFRANCE

1.11.1S.KOREAUK

ASEAN has progressed rapidly over the decade. In 2017, the combined GDP (current prices) of ASEAN - if it was a single economy - placed it as the 5th largest in the world at USD 2.8 trillion, almost double the USD 1.4 trillion in 2007.

ASEAN also accounted for 3.5% of the world’s GDP in 2017 from 2.4% in 2007.

INTRA-ASEAN TRADE ASEAN TRADE WITH UNITED STATES

ASEAN TRADE WITH THE WORLDASEAN’s total trade with the world soared 61% to USD 2.6 trillion in 2017 from USD 1.6 trillion in 2007.

Share of China in ASEAN’s total trade jumped to 18.7% in 2017 from 12.5% in 2007.

ASEAN TRADE WITH CHINA

Share of US in ASEAN’s total trade fell to 9.9% in 2017 from 11.7% in 2007.

Intra-ASEAN trade increased by 47% to USD 543 billion in 2017 from USD 369 billion in 2007.


Source: CEIC, IMF WEO, WTTC, UOB Global Economics & Markets ResearchNote: Tourist arrivals data for Brunei 2016-2017, Laos 2017, Myanmar 2017, Vietnam 2017 are estimation figures

ASEAN TOURISM

2017 ASEAN TOURISM SPENDING RANKINGUSD Billion

FOR LEISURE

184.9

777.6

122.1

China

United States

Germany

India

ASEAN

Italy

Japan

France

United Kingdom

Mexico

FOR BUSINESS

70.0

301.1

22.4

United States

China

Germany

United Kingdom

ASEAN

Japan

Italy

France

Canada

Sweden

ASEAN TOURISM SPENDING BETWEEN 2007-2017USD Billion

USD 135.8 Billion

BREAKDOWN OF 2017 ASEAN TOURISM DIRECT VALUE ADDED% Share

USD 135.8 BillionUSD 135.8 Billion

0.2%Brunei

2.3%Cambodia

14.3%Indonesia

0.5%Laos

11.2%Malaysia

1.5%Myanmar

20.1%Philippines

9.4%Singapore

31.0%Thailand

9.5%Vietnam

For Business

For Leisure

2017

184.9

146%

65% 70.075.1

42.4

20172007 2007

Among the 10-member states, Myanmar has the highest jump in tourist arrivals, soaring 1,516% to reach 6.0 million persons in 2017 compared with 0.4 million in 2007.

1,516%

Laos has the next highest jump in tourist arrivals after Myanmar, climbing 208% to reach 5.0 million persons in 2017 from 1.6 million a decade ago.

Tourist arrivals in Vietnam rose 192% to 12.3 million persons in 2017, ranking 3rd among the ASEAN members. Tourist arrivals in 2007 was only 4.2 million.

208%

Cambodia tourist arrivals jumped 178% to 5.6 million persons.

Indonesia tourist arrivals jumped 152% to 13.9 million persons.

Brunei tourist arrivals jumped 172% to 8.3 million persons.

Thailand tourist arrivals climbed 126% to 32.7 million persons.

192%

TOURIST ARRIVALS INTO ASEAN Million Persons

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Tourist arrivals into ASEAN soared 104%

between 2007-2017

134

66

Cambodia

Indonesia

Philippines tourist arrivals climbed 114% to 6.6 million persons.

Philippines

Malaysia tourist arrivals rose 24% to 25.9 million persons.

Malaysia

Brunei

2017 Tourist Arrivals Compared With 2007

Thailand

Singapore tourist arrivals rose 69% to 17.4 million persons.

Singapore

135.8

509.4

59.6

2017 TOURISM DIRECT VALUE ADDEDUSD Billion

United StatesChina

GermanyASEAN

JapanItaly

FranceUnited Kingdom

IndiaMexico

ASEAN’s tourism contribution to GDP almost double in 10 years to USD 135.8 billion in 2017, ranking 4th in the world in 2017 from 10th in 2007.

SpainBrazil


ASEAN Secretariatwww.aseanstats.org/

IMF World Economic Outlook April 2018www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2018/03/20/world-economic-outlook-april-2018

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)www.unctad.org/en/Pages/Home.aspx

Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)www.cia.gov/index.html

World Travel & Tourism Councilwww.wttc.org/

Compiled by UOB Global Economics & Markets Research

Email: [email protected]: www.uob.com.sg/research

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