ASEAN, Japan, & China

Outline

ASEAN & Japan Legacy of World War II Historical development of 3 periods Economic versus political/security

spheresEmergence of ChinaASEAN+3

Historical legacy

Japan’s aggression in Southeast Asia during World War II

Japan’s Appeal in WWII

Japan’s appeal to Southeast Asia during World War II Economic benefits

Japanese model for economic development since the Meiji Restoration of 1868

``Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere”

Anti-colonialist``Asia for the Asians”nationalist movements

``Co-Prosperity Sphere”

``Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere”

Japan’s economic foreign policy During World War II

Absorption of the economies of all occupied countries

Extraction of resources to fuel the war against the Allies

Consequence of WWII

How did Southeast Asia change? Decline of

Western colonial powerthe myth of European superiority

Rise inSoutheast Asian independence movementsJapanese interests and influence in Southeast AsiaUS interests and influence in Southeast Asia

Integration into global economy & community

Japan Returns (1950s)

US strategy concerning Japan ``dynamo of wider regional recovery in

Free Asia” contain Communism

Closure of China market in ‘50s & ‘60s Japan’s economic dependence on US materials & markets of Southeast Asia

Japan & Southeast Asia: 1

Japan’s economic diplomacy in ASEAN bilateral trade promotion & economic

linkage>1/4 of ASEAN’s total trade was with JapanJapan invest more in ASEAN than US

Asian Development Bank (1966 - ) avoid taking any political initiative

1974: anti-Japanese demonstrations during Japanese Prime Minister’s visit

ASEAN Attitudes

Singapore Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew said in 1969: ``My generation and that of my elders

cannot forget [WWII] as long as we live” ``The policy of our government is not to

allow the unhappy experiences of the past to inhibit us from a policy which can enhance our growth rates by Japanese participation”

Japan & Southeast Asia: 2

Anti-Japanese demonstrations of 1974

Fall of South Vietnam in 1975Japan began taking an active interest

in the political affairs of Southeast Asia from bilateral relations to focus on

ASEAN

Japan’s Reaction to 1978

1978: Vietnam invaded Cambodia threatened Japan’s economic interests Japan maintained a dialogue with Vietnam

Japan’s reaction aligned with US-ASEAN-PRC camp halted economic assistance to Vietnam called for Vietnam to withdrew all troops

from Cambodia

ASEAN’s Attitude to Japan

Distrust remained but reducedFears of Japan’s imperialist

tendencies remained but reduced

ASEAN-Japan Econ. Links

Economic links strengthened ASEAN countries’ development

programs needed Japan’s support and investment

Japan as an economic model & partnerMalaysia’s ``Look East”, Laos and

Singapore’s ``Learn from Japan”

Complementary economies of Southeast Asia and Japan

Complementary Economies

Japan & Southeast Asia: 3

Since the end of the Cold WarJapan redefined its role in international

affairs after the Cold WarJapan-ASEAN relationship strengthened

greater interactionsASEAN as a region and as an institution

Japan’s deeper involvement in regional affairsmore politically engaged

Japan’s Political Role

1990: Tokyo Conference on Cambodia1992: Japan sent 1,800 troops as UN

peacekeeping forces to Cambodiasince 1994: active participant in

regional multilateral arrangements such as ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF)

since 1997: political/security dialogues with Singapore, Thailand, and Indonesia

ASEAN Receptiveness

Malaysia Prime Minister Mahathir said in 1991: ``As we approach the year 2000, it is

our hope that Japan will initiate changes in its policies that will effectively bring about an enhanced political, socio-cultural role in not only the Southeast Asia region but also in the global context”

Diminishing Role of History

After the Cold War Increasing economic interdependence

between Japan & Southeast Asia Fear of Japanese remilitarization

reduced Generation change ``China threat”

Rise of China

China’s ``Reform & Opening-up” policyIncreasing presence in Southeast Asia

Expanding trade Political relations and influence

visits by leaderssummit meetingssubstantive agreements on issues ranging from

trade to military cooperation

Growing Regionalism (A+3)

1995: Asia-Europe Meeting in Bangkok ASEAN asked Japan, China, & South Korea

to join as Asian representatives Japan feared alienating US & China

US & Australian reservations about a regional grouping in Pacific Asia impact on the success of APEC possible division of global economy

ASEAN+3 Summit

China & Japan compete for regional leadership position

ASEAN+3 summit has taken place at each of the ASEAN summit since 1997

regular ASEAN+3 meetings of finance & economic ministers

Asian Financial Crisis (‘97)

Japan’s role in Southeast Asia contribution of funds and initiatives

emergency financial assistanceaid plan for regional human resource

developmentcooperation in information technology sector

inaction on banking reforms ineffective economic stimulus measures ASEAN urged faster action to help recovery

Asian Financial Crisis (‘97)

China’s role refrained from devaluing yuan contribution of funds and initiatives entry into World Trade Organization

(2001) ASEAN-PRC Free Trade Area (2001) threatens Japan’s economic leadership

in Southeast Asia

2001 ASEAN Summit

China and ASEAN formally announced intention to start talks on establishing a free-trade zone within 10 years

South Korea proposed an ASEAN+3 free-trade area

Possibility of establishing an ASEAN+3 secretariat

2002 ASEAN Summit

China forgave the debts of Vietnam, Laos,

Cambodia, and Myanmar duty-free privileges for exports of the

least developed members of ASEAN signed declaration on South China Sea signed framework agreement for

ASEAN-PRC FTA beginning in 2010

Japan

Japan signed its first-ever free-trade agreement (with Singapore) in 2002

Conclusions

ASEAN+3 have considerable potential APEC may be too broad ASEAN may be too narrow

Contested regional leadership position between Japan and China Japan most advanced economy China’s momentum