ASCE 7-10 Wind Speed Map
description
Transcript of ASCE 7-10 Wind Speed Map
1
ASCE 7-10 Wind Speed MapASCE 7-10 Wind Speed Map
Peter J. VickeryApplied Research Associates, Inc.8537 Six Forks Road, Suite 600
Raleigh, NC, 27615
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
SummarySummary New Hurricane Simulation Model
Windfield Filling (weakening after landfall) Holland B (pressure-wind Relationship) Tracks and pressures (Landfall location and intensity)
Results in Lower Design Wind Speeds Moving to strength wind speed map (wind load factor = 1 for
strength design, 0.63 for ASD) Strength map corresponds to 700 year RP
ASCE 7-05 Equivalent Map = V700/√1.6
Cat III and IV structures use 1700 year RP winds Cat I structures use 300 year RP winds
2
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
VV700700/√1.6/√1.6
Notes:1. Values are nominal design 3-second gust wind speeds in miles per hour (m/s) at 33 ft (10m) above ground for Exposure C category.2. Linear interpolation between contours is permitted.3. Islands and coastal areas outside the last contour shall use the last wind speed contour of the coastal area.4. Mountainous terrain, gorges, ocean promontories, and special wind regions shall be examined for unusual wind conditions.
Location Vmph (m/s)
Hawaii 102 (45)
Guam 155 (69)
Virgin Islands 132 (59)
American Samoa 125 (56)
Puerto Rico
90(40)
85(38)
90(40)
120(54)110(49)
100(45)
90(40)
90(40)
100(45)
110(49)
120(54)
130(58)
130(58)120(54)
130(58)
90(40)
100(45)110(49)
130(58) 130(58)
120(54)
110(49)
110(49)
90(40)
100(45)
140(63)
110(49)
120(54)
120(54)
110(49)
140(63)
3
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
VV700700/√1.6/√1.6
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ASCE 7-05 ASCE 7-10 Equivalent
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
700 Year Return Period Winds700 Year Return Period Winds
5
Notes:1. Values are nominal design 3-second gust wind speeds in miles per hour (m/s) at 33 ft (10m) above ground for Exposure C category.2. Linear interpolation between contours is permitted.3. Islands and coastal areas outside the last contour shall use the last wind speed contour of the coastal area.4. Mountainous terrain, gorges, ocean promontories, and special wind regions shall be examined for unusual wind conditions.
Location Vmph (m/s)
Hawaii 129 (58)
Guam 196 (88)
Virgin Islands 167 (75)
American Samoa 158 (71)
Puerto Rico
114(51)
108(48)
114(51)
114(51)150(67)
140(63)120(54)
130(58)
170(76)160(72)
180(80)
180(80)
170(76)
160(72)
150(67)
140(63)
140(63)
150(67)
140(63)
130(58)
120(54)
114(51)
110(49)
150(67)
120(54)130(58)140(63)
158(71)
158(71)
150(67)
140(63)
130(58)
120(54)
110(49)
150(67) 160(72)
170(76)
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
700 Year Return Period Winds700 Year Return Period Winds
6
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
1700 Year Return Period Winds1700 Year Return Period Winds
7
Notes:1. Values are nominal design 3-second gust wind speeds in miles per hour (m/s) at 33 ft (10m) above ground for Exposure C category.2. Linear interpolation between contours is permitted.3. Islands and coastal areas outside the last contour shall use the last wind speed contour of the coastal area.4. Mountainous terrain, gorges, ocean promontories, and special wind regions shall be examined for unusual wind conditions.
Location Vmph (m/s)
Hawaii 143 (64)
Guam 211 (94)
Virgin Islands 176 (79)
American Samoa 169 (76)
Puerto Rico
122(55)
115(52)
122(55)
122(55)
130(58)
140(63)150(67)
160(72)
170(76) 180(80)
150(67)160(72)
170(76)
180(80)
190(85)
200(89)
200(89)
160(72)
150(67)
140(63)
130(58)
122(55)
160(72)
150(67)
167(75)
167(75)
160(72)150(67)
140(63) 130(58)
120(54)
116(52)
116(52)
120(54)
130(58)
140(63)
150(67) 160(72) 170(76)
180(80)
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
Simulation MethodologySimulation Methodology
8
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
Additional Data in New ModelAdditional Data in New Model
9
Parameter 2000
Model Current Model Increase
Number of full scale wind speed traces (with maximum wind recor ded) used to validate windfield model
63 245 390%
Number of dropsonde profiles used to verify marine boundary layer model
0 650
Number of hurricanes used to develop Holland B model 17 35 100% Number of landfall hurricanes 167 189 13% Number of la ndfall intense hurricanes (defined by pressure) 70 84 20% Number of hurricanes used to develop filling model 38 57 68% Number of years of landfall data used to develop model 96 107 11%
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
Landfall PressuresLandfall Pressures
10
TX
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
LA
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000
SW FL
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
SE FL
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
Landfall PressuresLandfall Pressures
11
TX
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
LA
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
M S and AL
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
NW FL
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
SW FL
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
SE FL
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
NE FL
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
GA and SC
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
NC
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
VA, M D and NJ
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
NY/NE
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Gulf Coast
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Florida Coast
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Atlantic Coast
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
US Coast
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
Coastal SegmentsCoastal Segments
12
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
Landfall PressuresLandfall Pressures
13
Region 5
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Region 6
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Region 7
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Region 8
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Region 9
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Region 10
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Region 11
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Region 12
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Region 13
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Region 14
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Region 15
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Region 16
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Region 17
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Region 18
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Region 19
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Region 20
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000
Region 22
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000
Region 23
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
Landfall PressuresLandfall Pressures
14
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000
Regions 5 and 6
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Regions 6 and 7
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Regions 7 and 8
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Regions 8 and 9
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Regions 9 and 10
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Regions 10 and 11
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Regions 11 and 12
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Regions 12 and 13
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Regions 13 and 14
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Regions 14 and 15
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Regions 15 and 16
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Regions 16 and 17
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Regions 17 and 18
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000
Regions 18 and 19
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000
Regions 19 and 20
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000
Regions 20 and 21
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
Landfall PressureLandfall Pressure
15
Florida Coast
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
2008 Model vs. 2000 Model2008 Model vs. 2000 Model
16
100 Year Return Period
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
MilePost
Marine Gust Wind Speed
(m/sec)
Current Model
Vickery, et al (2000)
50 Year Return Period
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
MilePost
Marine Gust Wind Speed
(m/sec)
Current Model
Vickery, et al (2000)
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
Simulated vs. Historical Simulated vs. Historical Maximum Wind SpeedsMaximum Wind Speeds
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0
20
40
60
80
100
1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years)
Peak Gust Wind Speed (m/sec)
ModeledSimulatedPowell & Reinhold (2007)Powell (2007)Powell & Aberson (2001)Dunion et al, (2003)HWindFIU FCHLPMHouston & Powell (2003)Goldman & Ushijima (1974)
Hazel
CarlaBetsy (LA)
CharleyLabor DayCamille Andrew
Donna
Audrey Carman
1926 - Miami
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
Simulated vs. Historical Simulated vs. Historical Maximum Wind SpeedsMaximum Wind Speeds
18
Texas
0
20
40
60
80
100
1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years)
Peak Gust Wind Speed
(m/sec)Carla
AudreyCelia
1932
1900
Louisiana
0
20
40
60
80
100
1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years)
Peak Gust Wind Speed
(m/sec) CamilleBetsy
KatrinaAudrey
CarmenAndrew
Rita
M S/AL
0
20
40
60
80
100
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Peak Gust Wind Speed
(m/sec) Camille
Katrina
1926Frederic
Elena
Florida
0
20
40
60
80
100
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Wind Speed (mph)
CharleyLabor Day
Andrew1926
Donna
Peak Gust Wind Speed
(m/sec) Hugo
GracieHazel
Able
1911
Peak Gust Wind Speed
(m/sec)
Hazel
Fran 1944
Helene
Donna
Isabel
Floyd
Diana
Peak Gust Wind Speed
(m/sec)
HazelIsabel
Ione
DonnaFloydPeak Gust Wind Speed
(m/sec)
19381944
GloriaDonna
Carol
Peak Gust Wind Speed
(m/sec)
1944
1938
EdnaBob
Donna
Peak Gust Wind Speed
(m/sec)Edna
1938Donna1944
Gerda
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
Simulated vs. Historical Simulated vs. Historical Maximum Wind SpeedsMaximum Wind Speeds
19
GA/SC
0
20
40
60
80
100
1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years)
North Carolina
0
20
40
60
80
100
1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years)
VA/M D/DE/NJ
0
20
40
60
80
100
1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years)
NY/CT/RI
0
20
40
60
80
100
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
Simulated vs. Historical Simulated vs. Historical Maximum Wind SpeedsMaximum Wind Speeds
20
Region-FL1 (Escambia to Gulf)
0
20
40
60
80
100
1 10 100 1000Return Period (Years)
Peak Gust Wind Speed
(m/sec)
Eloise
1926
Region-FL2 (Franklin to Levy)
0
20
40
60
80
100
1 10 100 1000Return Period (Years)
Peak Gust Wind Speed
(m/sec)
EasyKate
Region-FL3 (Citrus to Manatee)
0
20
40
60
80
100
1 10 100 1000Return Period (Years)
Peak Gust Wind Speed
(m/sec)
Charley
Easy
Region-FL4 (Sarasota to Collier)
0
20
40
60
80
100
1 10 100 1000Return Period (Years)
Peak Gust Wind Speed
(m/sec)
CharleyDonna
Region-FL5 (Monroe)
0
20
40
60
80
100
1 10 100 1000Return Period (Years)
Peak Gust Wind Speed
(m/sec)Andrew
1935 Labor Day
Region-FL6 (Miami-Dade to Palm Beach)
0
20
40
60
80
100
1 10 100 1000Return Period (Years)
Peak Gust Wind Speed
(m/sec)Andrew
1926
Region-FL7 (Martin to Brevard)
0
20
40
60
80
100
1 10 100 1000Return Period (Years)
Peak Gust Wind Speed
(m/sec) 19281949
Region-FL8 (Seminole to Nassau)
0
20
40
60
80
100
1 10 100 1000Return Period (Years)
Peak Gust Wind Speed
(m/sec)
DoraDavid
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
Landfall Pressures vs. RPLandfall Pressures vs. RP
21
TX
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
LA
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
MS and AL
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
NW FL
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
SW FL
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
SE FL
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
NE FL
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
GA and SC
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
NC
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
VA, MD and NJ
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
NY/NE
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Gulf Coast
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Florida Coast
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Atlantic Coast
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
US Coast
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
Landfall Intensity (by Landfall Intensity (by Pressure)Pressure)
22
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25Intense Hurricane Landfall Rate by Region
ObservedMean - Vickery, et al ( 2008a)Mean - Vickery, et al ( 2000a)
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
All IH Storms Category 3 Storms
Category 4 Storms
Category 5 Storms
Annual Rate of Landfall of US Intense Hurricanes
Observed
Mean - Vickery et al. ( 2008a)Mean - Vickery et al. ( 2000b)
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
QUESTION:QUESTION:If the new model produces If the new model produces more intense hurricanes more intense hurricanes
(defined by pressure) than (defined by pressure) than the old model, why have the the old model, why have the
design wind speeds gone design wind speeds gone down?down?
23
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
ANSWER:ANSWER:Because of the New Model Because of the New Model
for the Holland for the Holland BB Parameter Parameter
24
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
What is B?What is B?
25
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
What is B?What is B?
26
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Distance from Storm Center (r/RMW)
Gradient Balance Wind Speed
(ms
-1)
B = 0.75B = 1B = 1.3
B = 1.5
930
940
950
960
970
980
990
1000
1010
1020
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Distance from Storm Center (r/RMW)
Pressure e (hPa)
B = 0.75B = 1
B = 1.3B = 1.5
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
What is B?What is B?
27
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Distance from Storm Center (r/RMW)
Gradient Balance Wind Speed
(ms
-1)
B = 0.75B = 1B = 1.3
B = 1.5
930
940
950
960
970
980
990
1000
1010
1020
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Distance from Storm Center (r/RMW)
Pressure e (hPa)
B = 0.75B = 1
B = 1.3B = 1.5
B
c r
RMWpprp ⎥⎦
⎤⎢⎣
⎡−⋅Δ+= exp)(
24
])(exp[)(
2/1
22 frfrr
RMWpB
r
RMWV
B
BG −
⎥⎥⎥⎥
⎦
⎤
⎢⎢⎢⎢
⎣
⎡
+−Δ
=ρ
ρepB
VGΔ
≈max
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
Statistical Model for Holland Statistical Model for Holland B ParameterB Parameter
28
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
Holland B Pressure FitsHolland B Pressure Fits
29
050100150
940
960
980
1000
1020Andrew -1992/08/23-0542,B=1.6, Δp=75mb,RMW=11km
Radius(km)
Pressure(hPa)
050100150
940
960
980
1000
1020
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
B ParameterB Parameter
30
900
920
940
960
980
1000
1020
0 25 50 75 100 125 150
Hurricane Allen (Δ =106 , p mbRMW=15 , =1.45)km B
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
Statistical Model for BStatistical Model for B
31
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
Holland B Parameter
SQRT(A)
B from Equation 2B from Vickery, et al. (2000)Data1992 Andrew1999 Floyd1998 Georges
⎟⎟⎠
⎞⎜⎜⎝
⎛
⋅Δ
+⋅
⋅=
ep
pTR
fRMWA
csd 1ln2
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
Holland B from Wind Field Holland B from Wind Field AnalysesAnalyses
32
y = -0.8408x + 1.5773R_ = 0.2658
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80SQRT(A)
Atlantic Coast and Florida Peninsula Hurricanes
B from Equation 5B from Equation 6B Estimated from Wind ModelingLinear (B Estimated from Wind Modeling)
FredericElena
Ike
y = -0.7532x + 1.2907R_ = 0.0757
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80
SQRT(A)
Gulf Coast Hurricanes
B from Equation 5B from Equation 6B Estimated from Wind ModelingLinear (B Estimated from Wind Modeling)
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
Mean B at Land Fall (old vs. Mean B at Land Fall (old vs. new modelsnew models
33
"
"
" ""
"
" " "
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
" 1.15,0.62
1.19,0.76
1.22,0.83
1.20,0.81
1.22,0.91
1.23,0.97
1.23,1.01
1.24,1.03
1.25,1.05
1.24,1.07
1.27,1.11
1.29,1.17
1.30,1.20
1.30,1.22
1.28,1.17
1.27,1.15
1.27,1.12
1.24,1.081.27,1.12
1.29,1.14
1.30,1.16
1.30,1.18
1.28,1.14
1.29,1.17
1.29,1.17
1.30,1.19
"
"
""
"
"
" " "
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
2.02,1.22
2.08,1.38
2.11,1.40
2.06,1.38
2.09,1.55
2.12,1.60
2.13,1.61
2.12,1.63
2.13,1.64
2.13,1.64
2.13,1.70
2.18,1.74
2.20,1.78
2.20,1.83
2.17,1.73
2.17,1.73
2.15,1.69
2.12,1.64
2.17,1.69
2.18,1.74
2.19,1.75
2.20,1.76
2.15,1.70
2.19,1.73
2.18,1.73
2.20,1.75
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
Effect of B on Predicted Effect of B on Predicted Wind SpeedsWind Speeds
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0
50
100
150
200
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Wilmington, NC
B from Vickery, et al. (2000)B from Vickery and Wadhera (2008)
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
Effect of B on Predicted Effect of B on Predicted Wind SpeedsWind Speeds
35
0
50
100
150
200
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
0
50
100
150
200
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Miami, FL
B from Vickery, et al. (2000)
B from Vickery and Wadhera (2008)
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
SummarySummary
New model produces more landfall intense hurricanes by pressure than the model used to develop ASCE 7, yet results in lower wind speeds.
Additional flight level data and improved statistical model for B resulted in lower ~10% estimates of the Holland B parameter.
In some areas (e.g. Florida Panhandle) the new model produces fewer land falling strong hurricanes, and hence wind speeds are lower than associated with the reduction of B alone.
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Expanding the Realm of Possibility
Windborne Debris RegionWindborne Debris Region
Current Standard V > 120 or 110 within one mile of coast
Exact Mapping (new 700 year map) 120√1.6=152~150 110 √1.6=139~140
New WBDR is intended to mimic current standard, pending new research V > 140 or 130 within one mile of coast Results in less area within WBD Region that the
existing standard
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Expanding the Realm of Possibility
Wind Borne Debris RegionWind Borne Debris Region
38