as of Q2 2020€¦ · Associate Partner, EY Zurich +41 58 286 42 91 [email protected] +41...
6
Valuation Market Essentials Switzerland as of Q2 2020
Transcript of as of Q2 2020€¦ · Associate Partner, EY Zurich +41 58 286 42 91 [email protected] +41...
Marc Filleux, CFADirector, EY Zurich
+41 58 286 36 60 [email protected]
Hannes Schobinger, CFAAssociate Partner, EY Zurich
+41 58 286 42 91 [email protected]
Your Valuation, Modeling & Economics contacts in Switzerland
Stéphanie Chaumier, CASenior Manager, EY Geneva
+41 58 286 59 49 [email protected]
Vitalijs KorotkovsSenior Manager, EY Zurich
+41 58 286 30 33 [email protected]
Mina Protitch, CFASenior Manager, EY ZurichFinancial Services
+41 58 286 38 [email protected]
Jennifer Müller, CFASenior Manager, EY Zurich
+41 58 286 36 [email protected]
Matthias Oppermann, CFASenior Manager, EY Zurich
+41 58 286 45 92 [email protected]
About this brochure
EY | Assurance | Tax | Transactions | Advisory
© 2020 Ernst & Young Ltd.All Rights Reserved.
CH-ASPED None
This publication contains information in summary form and is therefore intended for general guidance only. Although prepared with utmost care this publication is not intended to be a substitute for detailed research or professional advice. Therefore, by reading this publication, you agree that no liability for correctness, completeness and/or currentness will be assumed. It is solely the responsibility of the readers to decide whether and in what form the information made available is relevant for their purposes. Neither Ernst & Young Ltd nor any other member of the global EY organization accepts any responsibility. On any specific matter, reference should be made to the appropriate advisor.
ey.com/ch
EY‘s Valuation Market Essentials Switzerland brochure summarizes relevant market data that is regularly used in valuations. It is aimed at finance professionals that regularly deal with valuations and corporate finance related topics. The analysis is based on the constituents of the Swiss All Share Index (excluding general financial and real estate companies) and data from S&P Capital IQ/Oxford Economics.
For this edition, all data was downloaded as per date of this brochure (see cover page). Therefore, values may deviate when compared with values of previous brochure editions.
ValuationMarket Essentials Switzerland as of Q2 2020
* Purchase price allocations, goodwill impairment tests, employee stock (option) valuations
Decision Modeling & Economics Valuation Services
Data analytics and visualization
Integrated planning, forecasting and consolidation
Financing and LBO modeling
ProjeX (tool for group tax planning)
Standard Excel models for day2day use*
Tax valuations
Transactional business valuations (deal models)
Expert valuations/second opinions
Fairness opinions/regulatory valuations
Financial reporting valuations*
Disputes and arbitration
Start-up valuations
We offer a great variety of services and customized solutions for different occasions:
Valuation, Modeling & Economics Services
LTM per31.12.2019
LTM per31.12.2018
LTM per31.12.2017
LTM per31.12.2016
LTM per31.12.2015
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Retail and consumer products Media, techn. and telecom.Industrial goods and services HealthcareEnergy and utilities Chemicals, constr. and mat.
8.3%
12.1%10.0%
12.9%
20.5%
13.7%
LTM per31.12.2019
LTM per31.12.2018
LTM per31.12.2017
LTM per31.12.2016
LTM per31.12.2015
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Retail and consumer products Media, techn. and telecom.Industrial goods and services HealthcareEnergy and utilities Chemicals, constr. and mat.
4.9%
7.0%
5.9%6.8%
10.8%10.9%
LTM EBITDA margin LTM EBIT marginMedian development Median development
Retail and consumer products Media, techn. and telecom.
Industrial goods and services Healthcare
Energy and utilities Chemicals, constr. and mat.
30.06.2020 31.03.2020 31.12.2019 30.09.2019 30.06.2019 0.0x
5.0x
10.0x
15.0x
20.0x
30.0x
25.0x
7.6x8.5x
9.6x
17.1x
12.9x
9.1x
0.0x
5.0x
10.0x
15.0x
20.0x
30.0x
25.0x
Retail and consumer products Media, techn. and telecom.
Industrial goods and services Healthcare
Energy and utilities Chemicals, constr. and mat.
30.06.2020 31.03.2020 31.12.2019 30.09.2019 30.06.2019
15.0x16.1x17.0x
22.5x19.7x
13.0x
EBIT multiplesEBITDA multiplesMedian developmentMedian development
LTM per31.12.2019
LTM per31.12.2018
LTM per31.12.2017
LTM per31.12.2016
LTM per31.12.2015
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Retail and consumer products Media, techn. and telecom.Industrial goods and services HealthcareEnergy and utilities Chemicals, constr. and mat.
4.9%
7.0%
5.9%6.8%
10.8%10.9%
LTM per31.12.2019
LTM per31.12.2018
LTM per31.12.2017
LTM per31.12.2016
LTM per31.12.2015
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Retail and consumer products Media, techn. and telecom.Industrial goods and services HealthcareEnergy and utilities Chemicals, constr. and mat.
4.9%
7.0%
5.9%6.8%
10.8%10.9%
LTM per31.12.2019
LTM per31.12.2018
LTM per31.12.2017
LTM per31.12.2016
LTM per31.12.2015
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Retail and consumer products Media, techn. and telecom.Industrial goods and services HealthcareEnergy and utilities Chemicals, constr. and mat.
4.9%
7.0%
5.9%6.8%
10.8%10.9%
LTM per31.12.2019
LTM per31.12.2018
LTM per31.12.2017
LTM per31.12.2016
LTM per31.12.2015
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Retail and consumer products Media, techn. and telecom.Industrial goods and services HealthcareEnergy and utilities Chemicals, constr. and mat.
4.9%
7.0%
5.9%6.8%
10.8%10.9%
LTM per31.12.2019
LTM per31.12.2018
LTM per31.12.2017
LTM per31.12.2016
LTM per31.12.2015
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Retail and consumer products Media, techn. and telecom.Industrial goods and services HealthcareEnergy and utilities Chemicals, constr. and mat.
4.9%
7.0%
5.9%6.8%
10.8%10.9%
LTM per31.12.2019
LTM per31.12.2018
LTM per31.12.2017
LTM per31.12.2016
LTM per31.12.2015
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Retail and consumer products Media, techn. and telecom.Industrial goods and services HealthcareEnergy and utilities Chemicals, constr. and mat.
4.9%
7.0%
5.9%6.8%
10.8%10.9%
Margin development Switzerland
Transaction multiples Europe
EBITDA multiplesMedian development
EBIT multiplesMedian development
Trading multiples Switzerland
30.06.2019 30.09.2019 31.12.2019 31.03.2020 30.06.20200.0x
5.0x
10.0x
15.0x
20.0x
25.0x
30.0x
1 Chemicals, construction and materials: median for Q2 2020 based on 1 multiple available2 Energy and utilities: medians for Q3 2019 and Q2 2020 based on 1 multiple available3 Healthcare: median for Q1 2020 based on 1 multiple available
10.4x11.4x12.4x
5.0x
7.8x
18.1x
30.06.2020 31.03.2020 31.12.2019 30.09.2019 30.06.2019 0.0x
5.0x
10.0x
15.0x
20.0x
25.0x
30.0x
1 Energy and utilities: median for Q3 2019 based on 2 multiples available
7.0x
11.2x
7.5x8.0x
6.8x
8.2x
31.3.2020 30.9.2019 Switzerland Eurozone United States
30.6.2019 31.12.2019 30.6.2020
-0.1% -0.2% -0.3%
0.4% 0.3% 0.2%
2.3% 2.3%2.1%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
2.2% 2.2%
0.3% 0.3%
-0.2%-0.2%
CHF risk free 10 years EUR risk free 10 years USD risk free 10 years
30.06.201531.12.2015 31.12.2016 31.12.2017 31.12.2018 31.12.2019
30.06.2016 30.06.2017 30.06.2018 30.06.2019 30.06.2020
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%High, 3.2%
Low, -0.7%
Low, 0.6%
Low, -1.0%
High, 0.2%
High, 1.0%
30.06.2020 31.03.2020 31.12.2019 30.09.2019 30.06.2019 0.0x
0.2x
0.4x
0.6x
0.8x
1.0x
Retail and consumer products Media, techn. and telecom.
Industrial goods and services Healthcare
Energy and utilities Chemicals, constr. and mat.
0.64 0.65
0.83
0.92
0.35
0.83
Cost of capital components
Current market risk premium: 6.5%Median development Distribution as per 30.6.2020
Median development Distribution as per 30.6.2020
Debt/total capital
Unlevered beta
Risk free rateImplied yield on 10-year government bonds, monthly development over five years Implied yield on 10-year government bonds,
monthly average over five years
Chemicals, constr. and mat.
Energy and utilities
Healthcare
Industrial goods and services
Media, techn. and telecom.
Retail and consumer products
Median
Min and maxSecond and third quartile
13.9%
23.9%
8.2%
16.1%
16.3%
19.4%
0.0% 25.0% 50.0% 75.0% 100.0%
Chemicals, constr. and mat.
Energy and utilities
Healthcare
Industrial goods and services
Media, techn. and telecom.
Retail and consumer products
Median
Min and maxSecond and third quartile
13.9%
23.9%
8.2%
16.1%
16.3%
19.4%
0.0% 25.0% 50.0% 75.0% 100.0% 30.06.2020 31.03.2020 31.12.2019 30.09.2019 30.06.2019 0.0%
20.0%
10.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
Retail and consumer products Media, techn. and telecom.
Industrial goods and services Healthcare
Energy and utilities Chemicals, constr. and mat.
19.4% 16.3% 16.1%
8.2%
23.9%
13.9%
Chemicals, constr. and mat.
Energy and utilities
Healthcare
Industrial goods and services
Media, techn. and telecom.
Retail and consumer products
Median
Min and maxSecond and third quartile
13.9%
23.9%
8.2%
16.1%
16.3%
19.4%
0.0% 25.0% 50.0% 75.0% 100.0%
0.83x
0.35x
0.92x
0.83x
0.65x
0.64x
Median
First and fourth quartileSecond and third quartile
Industrial goods and services
Media, techn. and telecom.
Retail and consumer products
Healthcare
Chemicals, constr. and mat.
-0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00
Energy and utilities
AAA AA A BBB
0.7%0.8%
1.2%
1.9%
0.0%30.06.2015 30.06.2016 30.06.2017 30.06.2018 30.06.2019 30.06.2020
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
LTM per30.06.2020
LTM per31.03.2020
LTM per30.12.2019
LTM per30.09.2019
LTM per28.06.2019Global and private banks Retail and cantonal banksInsurance companies
0.0x
4.0x
8.0x
12.0x
16.0x
20.0x
11.2x
15.6x
9.5x
30.06.202031.03.202030.12.201930.09.201928.06.2019
Global and private banks Retail and cantonal banksInsurance companies
0.7x
0.8x
0.9x
1.0x
1.1x
1.2x
1.3x
1.4x
1.5x
1.02x1.06x
0.94x
Emerging Markets
World
United States
Germany
Switzerland
CPI inflation (geom. mean 2020–2029)
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%
3.8%
3.7%
1.8%
1.8%
0.8%
Credit Spread–Barclays Europe Aggregate, monthly development over five years
CHF LIBOR 3m EUR LIBOR 3m USD LIBOR 3m
Low, -0.9% High, -0.6%
Low, -0.5%
High, 0.0%
Low, 0.3%
High, 2.8%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
30.06.2015 30.06.2016 30.06.2017 30.06.2018 30.06.2019 30.06.2020
3 months LIBOR, monthly development over five years
GDP growth, nominal (geom. mean 2020-2029)
Emerging Markets
World
United States
Germany
Switzerland
6.9%
6.5%
3.5%
2.7%
2.1%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%
Banking and insurance sector
Macro-economic data
LTM P/E P/TBMedian development Median development
Credit spread LIBOR
CPI inflation* Nominal GDP growth*in % in %, based on local currency
* excluding Venezuela
Marc Filleux, CFADirector, EY Zurich
+41 58 286 36 60 [email protected]
Hannes Schobinger, CFAAssociate Partner, EY Zurich
+41 58 286 42 91 [email protected]
Your Valuation, Modeling & Economics contacts in Switzerland
Stéphanie Chaumier, CASenior Manager, EY Geneva
+41 58 286 59 49 [email protected]
Vitalijs KorotkovsSenior Manager, EY Zurich
+41 58 286 30 33 [email protected]
Mina Protitch, CFASenior Manager, EY ZurichFinancial Services
+41 58 286 38 [email protected]
Jennifer Müller, CFASenior Manager, EY Zurich
+41 58 286 36 [email protected]
Matthias Oppermann, CFASenior Manager, EY Zurich
+41 58 286 45 92 [email protected]
About this brochure
EY | Assurance | Tax | Transactions | Advisory
© 2020 Ernst & Young Ltd.All Rights Reserved.
CH-ASPED None
This publication contains information in summary form and is therefore intended for general guidance only. Although prepared with utmost care this publication is not intended to be a substitute for detailed research or professional advice. Therefore, by reading this publication, you agree that no liability for correctness, completeness and/or currentness will be assumed. It is solely the responsibility of the readers to decide whether and in what form the information made available is relevant for their purposes. Neither Ernst & Young Ltd nor any other member of the global EY organization accepts any responsibility. On any specific matter, reference should be made to the appropriate advisor.
ey.com/ch
EY‘s Valuation Market Essentials Switzerland brochure summarizes relevant market data that is regularly used in valuations. It is aimed at finance professionals that regularly deal with valuations and corporate finance related topics. The analysis is based on the constituents of the Swiss All Share Index (excluding general financial and real estate companies) and data from S&P Capital IQ/Oxford Economics.
For this edition, all data was downloaded as per date of this brochure (see cover page). Therefore, values may deviate when compared with values of previous brochure editions.
