As 10 perguntas mais polêmicas para entender os rumos da energia renovável
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Transcript of As 10 perguntas mais polêmicas para entender os rumos da energia renovável
Global Overview of Energy with Emphasis on Sustainable
Sources:
Present Situation and Future Scenarios
ICSU’s Global-Regional Integration Workshop on Sustainable Energy
Mexico City, April 8th, 2013
Décio Luiz Gazzoni
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World Energy Demand
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
4
8
12
16
20
G to
e
Source: EIA: "International Energy Outlook 2010”
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32000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 21000
20
40
60
80
100
Renewable Conventional
Perc
ent
Renewables will get more share!
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4Source: http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle800.do?categoryId=9037183&contentId=7068609
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
20
30
40
50
60Proved reservesAnnual con-sumptionYears to go (R/P)
Prov
ed re
serv
es (b
illio
n ba
rrel
s)
Cons
umpt
ion
(bb)
and
R/P
(ye
ars)
There is enough oil for decades
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1860
1865
1870
1875
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
US$/
barr
el
Source: http://www.pdf-txt.com/xls/crude-oil-price.html
Oil prices are looking up
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100
5,000
10,000
15,000 CoalOilNat Gas
Mt
of C
O2
Source: IEA Key world energy statistics
Other: 120 Mt (2010)
Emissions are looking up too
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Geography of oil reserves
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A new world is possible!
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The proliferation of supportive government policies
Rising costs of conventional energy
Dramatic reductions in renewable energy costs
Economies of scale in manufacturing
Claims for a cleaner environment
Diverse nature of motivations
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Security of energy supply Autonomy, resilience Jobs Industrial development Financial profit Portfolio risk mitigation Price risks of fossil fuels Rural energy access Climate change Environmental sustainability Nuclear accidents and wastes.
Diverse nature of motivations
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The ten major questionsThinking inside the box... but mainly outside the box!
How?How
much?
Who?
Where?
When?
What?
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Ways to invest in renewable energy
Local levels: new trends
National levels: growing markets
Globally: technology, costs and
markets
Let´s assume
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How much renewable energy?18% of renewables8% traditional; 10%
modern
IEA (1993) = 10% RE in 2030
50% of new electricity from RE in 2011
Sustained Growth (Shell) = 50% RE in 2050
IEA (2011) = 35% RE in 2050
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How much renewable energy?
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500
20
40
60
80
100
Greenpeace (2012)
GEA "Efficiency" (2012)
IEA ETP "2DS" (2012)
IEA WEO New Policies (2012)
Exxon Mobil (2012)
Perc
ent
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How much renewable energy?
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500
20
40
60
80
100
Greenpeace (2012)
GEA "Efficiency" (2012)
IEA ETP "2DS" (2012)
IEA WEO New Policies (2012)
Exxon Mobil (2012)
Perc
ent
RE will grow at higher rates
More intense close to 2050
Conservative bet: > 35%
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Is RE more expensive?
Common sense says yes, but...16
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Should consider:
Fuel and technology subsidies
Environmental costs
Fossil fuel price risk
Or less expensive?
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RE will cost less
Innovation +Externalities +
Rationalization =
Decreasing RE prices = RE costs less to the
society
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What is the future of policies?
Countries with public policies supporting RE
2005 = 55
2012 = 120
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Public policies supporting RE
Policies will be
paramount for RE
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Will RE mitigate Climatic Changes?
Scenarios surveyed by IPCC CO2 Concentration
1 – > 600 ppm 3 – 400 - 600 ppm 1 – < 400 ppm
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Will RE mitigate Climatic Changes?
Renewables share on the scenarios
50% - for 450 ppm 77% - for lower concentrations
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RE will mitigate Climatic Changes!
Higher shares of RE will be compulsory for
reducing energy related GHG Emission !
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Do RE need storage?
Common sense says yes, but...24
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Does RE need storage?
Probably not soon, but breakthrough low cost and high density technologies will be
necessary after 2050
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26Centralized / distributed grids?
Widely different visions
More local grids
Integration needed
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27Both will be necessary
Balanced wise
combination
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How much investment?2011 – US$ 290 billion
RE receives morenew power investment
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How much investment?From now to 2035 – US$6.4 trillionAfter 2035 – US$ 500 billion /yr
New financing sourcesand models for the future
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Oil and gas companiesBiofuels, biomass, solar
Wind offshore, hydrogen
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They will play the game!At the moment oil companies start investing at the same rate of others investors, than the RE share will accelerate its growing
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RE is as green as organic food
Sustainability
Green value chains
Corporation green image
Society trend
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Innovation and costs are tiedInnovation, scale andpublic policy are thetripod for the futurelarger share of RE at low cost
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Wind power onshoreWind power onshore grows fast
5 – 16 US cents / kWh
Best projects = < 5 cents / kWh
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Wind power onshoreMultiple innovations
New materials Lower weight Concrete towers Permanent magnet Direct drives Aerodynamics Substitutes for rare earths Information technology Smarter maintenance Cheaper small scale
turbines
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Wind offshore: longer way ahead
Present: 11 – 22 US cents / kWh
Trend 2035: 6 US cents / kWh
Supply chainsNew turbinesFloating foundationsNew system design
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PV: The future of the future
Home: 22 - 44 US cents / kWh
Utility: 20 - 37 US cents / kWh
Best projects: 9 - 13 US cents / kWh
Future: < 10 US cents / kWh37
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PV: Innovations are on the pipeline
Cell efficiency Thin films Dye, polymer and organic
PV Earth abundant materials Cheaper foundation Cheaper integration38
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Concentrating Solar Power
Present: 19 – 29 US cents / kWh
Future: 6 – 10 US cents / kWh
Higher temperatureLarger storage capacitySupercriticalDesalinationAir receiversGas turbinesHVDC transmission lines
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Geothermal, a mature technology
Present: 6 – 11 US cents / kWh
Trend to decline
Enhanced GeothermalLow temperature CHPDrilling
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Biomass replacing fossil fuels
8 -17 US cents / kWh Fuel supplies
Technical conversion and pathways
Heating technologies
Bio-refineries
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Biofuels, plenty of innovation
Biomass gasification
Sugar to biodiesel
Cellulosic fuels
Synthetic biology
New feedstocks, like microalgae
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Conclusions RE came to stay It is a matter of choice It is a true green energy Public acceptance Innovation, scale and
policies will make the difference
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To think upon“We can be almost certain that the future will not be a linear growth line from today. We always underestimate the future, which then produces surprises. I’m sure that some people is underestimating the growth of renewables as well.”
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MANY THANKS
A Global Overview of Energy with Emphasis on Sustainable Sources: Present Situation and Future Scenarios.
Décio Luiz GazzoniMéxico – April 8, 2013
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