Artificial Intelligence im Kampfjet - WKO.at

17
COMPANY UNCLASSIFIED | NOT EXPORT CONTROLLED | NOT CLASSIFIED Your Name | Document Identification | Issue 1 This document and the information contained herein is the property of Saab AB and must not be used, disclosed or altered without Saab AB prior written consent. Artificial Intelligence im Kampfjet Tommy Busk Head of Technical Discipline Tactical Systems Saab Aeronautics 2 April 2019

Transcript of Artificial Intelligence im Kampfjet - WKO.at

Page 1: Artificial Intelligence im Kampfjet - WKO.at

COMPANY UNCLASSIFIED | NOT EXPORT CONTROLLED | NOT CLASSIFIED

Your Name | Document Identification | Issue 1

This document and the information contained herein is the property of Saab AB and

must not be used, disclosed or altered without Saab AB prior written consent.

Artificial Intelligence im Kampfjet

Tommy Busk

Head of Technical Discipline Tactical Systems

Saab Aeronautics

2 April 2019

Page 2: Artificial Intelligence im Kampfjet - WKO.at

COMPANY UNCLASSIFIED | NOT EXPORT CONTROLLED | NOT CLASSIFIED

Your Name | Document Identification | Issue 1

Agenda

• What is Artificial Intelligence (AI)?

• Progress of AI

• AI in Aerospace

• Challenges

• Research

• Future

• Final questions

• Caveat: ”Due to Public nature of this

presentation only general statements can be

made”

2

Page 3: Artificial Intelligence im Kampfjet - WKO.at

COMPANY UNCLASSIFIED | NOT EXPORT CONTROLLED | NOT CLASSIFIED

Your Name | Document Identification | Issue 1

What is Artifical Intelligence?

• No commonly accepted definition, elusive, perception inflation, compare with chess computer

• The term ”AI” widely used as enhancer

• “Artificial Intelligence is the art of making computers work the way they do in the movies”

• ”Intelligence is the computational part of the ability to achieve goals in the world. Varying kinds and degrees of intelligence occur in people, many animals and some machines.” Prof. John McCarthy, Stanford

• Distinction: Narrow AI vs Wide AI

3

2017: Go master Lee Sedol is beaten by AI, Source: Netflix

Page 4: Artificial Intelligence im Kampfjet - WKO.at

COMPANY UNCLASSIFIED | NOT EXPORT CONTROLLED | NOT CLASSIFIED

Your Name | Document Identification | Issue 1

Progress of AI

• Research on AI since the 1950’s

• The Golden years 1956-1974

• AI Winter 1974-1980

• Boom 1980-1987

• Second Winter 1987-1993

• 1997 AI beats Garry Kasparov

• DARPA Urban Challenge 2005, 2007

• Watson 2011

4

Page 5: Artificial Intelligence im Kampfjet - WKO.at

COMPANY UNCLASSIFIED | NOT EXPORT CONTROLLED | NOT CLASSIFIED

Your Name | Document Identification | Issue 1

Progress of AI

• Deepmind AlphaGo Zero 2017

• DeepMind Starcraft 2019

Page 6: Artificial Intelligence im Kampfjet - WKO.at

COMPANY UNCLASSIFIED | NOT EXPORT CONTROLLED | NOT CLASSIFIED

Your Name | Document Identification | Issue 1

AI in Aerospace

Examples of applications in Aerospace:

• Design

• Generative design in combination with 3D-printing

• Software Development

• Classic code vs machine learning

• Training

• Computer Generated Forces

• Aid

• Fighter

• Sensors

• Decision support/making

6

Generative Design: Autodesk in collaboration with Airbus, 30 kg lighter

Computer Generated Forces

Page 7: Artificial Intelligence im Kampfjet - WKO.at

COMPANY UNCLASSIFIED | NOT EXPORT CONTROLLED | NOT CLASSIFIED

Your Name | Document Identification | Issue 1

Software Development

7

Study the

problemWrite rules

Analyse

errors

Ready

Evaluate

Study the

problem

Train

algorithm

Analyse

errors

Ready

Evaluate

Data

set

Classic Coding

Machine Learning

”If x happens do y”

Accumulating, curating, cleaning

• Classic code versus Machine Learning

• Training of AI algorithims requires data Data

set is critical

• But code is not explainable

• Problem correction – how to find the error?

How to find the cause?

Page 8: Artificial Intelligence im Kampfjet - WKO.at

COMPANY UNCLASSIFIED | NOT EXPORT CONTROLLED | NOT CLASSIFIED

Your Name | Document Identification | Issue 1

Example - Reinforcement Learning

8

Beats humans in e.g. Go, Dota and StarCraft II

But needs much training;

Montezuma’s Revenge

Page 9: Artificial Intelligence im Kampfjet - WKO.at

COMPANY UNCLASSIFIED | NOT EXPORT CONTROLLED | NOT CLASSIFIED

Your Name | Document Identification | Issue 1

Improved training effectiveness and

value

• More complex scenarios can be

realized

• Reduction of human training

personnel

Pilot Training

• Improved behaviour models for Computer Generated Forces (CGF):

• Adapt to training needs, e.g. gradually more difficult for the student

• Parameterized behaviour, similar to giving instructions to human role-players, e.g. aggressiveness

• Multi-agent collaboration

• Agent-human interaction (e.g. team members)

• AI adapts the curriculum

9

Page 10: Artificial Intelligence im Kampfjet - WKO.at

COMPANY UNCLASSIFIED | NOT EXPORT CONTROLLED | NOT CLASSIFIED

Your Name | Document Identification | Issue 1

Fighter – Decision Support/Makning

• How to support the pilot?

• OODA-model

• John Boyd - Fighter pilot in the

Korean war

• ”Boyd advances the idea that

success in war, conflict,

competition even survival hinges

upon the quality and tempo of the

cognitive processes”

• Rapid and right decision making

10

Analysis, what does input mean?

”I understand that I will collide

unless I brake or shift direction”

”I see something

blocking the road”

Environment

”Drivning on a road”

”I will brake”

”Pushing down

brake pedal”

”Speed is

reduced”

”I process the pros and

cons with either option”

Page 11: Artificial Intelligence im Kampfjet - WKO.at

COMPANY UNCLASSIFIED | NOT EXPORT CONTROLLED | NOT CLASSIFIED

Your Name | Document Identification | Issue 1

Fighter - Decision Support/Makning

11

Situation Analysis

• Rule based or DNN

• Reasoning

• Object recognition

Situation Awareness

and Decision Support

Human Machine Interface

• Displays

• Audio

Sensors

• Signal Processing

• Target tracking

• Information fusion

• Target classification

Environment

Decision Making

• Long-term objectives

• Short-term objectices

• Boundary conditions

Decision Making

• Stress

• Time to decide

• Flexibility

Human Machine Interface

• Speech recognition, NLP

• Gesture recognition

What machine

does best

What human

does bestAI Pilot Monitoring

• Autonomy level

• Information adaptation

ActionResource utilisation

and optimisation Impact

Feedback loop

Page 12: Artificial Intelligence im Kampfjet - WKO.at

COMPANY UNCLASSIFIED | NOT EXPORT CONTROLLED | NOT CLASSIFIED

Your Name | Document Identification | Issue 1

Challenges – Real World Complexity

• Balancing short and long-term goals and

adapt to unexpected situations

• Making complex predictions over very long

sequences of data where cause-and-effect is

not instantaneous and actions taken early may

not make an impact for a long time.

• Handling a large action space

• Real-time management

• Manage incomplete information

• Act in an environment that actively tries to

exploit its weaknesses

12

Page 13: Artificial Intelligence im Kampfjet - WKO.at

COMPANY UNCLASSIFIED | NOT EXPORT CONTROLLED | NOT CLASSIFIED

Your Name | Document Identification | Issue 1

Challenges – Real World Complexity

• Different Missions:

• Offensive/defensive counterair (DCA/OCA) scenarios, with

progressively more entities

• Attack operations: Attacks on missile sites, airfields, C2 and

infrastructure

• Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD), Fighter Escort, Fighter

Sweep

• Destroy hostile air threats

• Identification/Combat identification and warning

• Considerations

• Weapon Engagement Zones (WEZ)

• Minimum-risk routes

• Jammed environments

• Rules Of Engagement (ROE)

• Threats

• Aircraft: Fighters, bombers, intelligence, EW, tankers, transport,

helicopters

• Air defence systems

13

Page 14: Artificial Intelligence im Kampfjet - WKO.at

COMPANY UNCLASSIFIED | NOT EXPORT CONTROLLED | NOT CLASSIFIED

Your Name | Document Identification | Issue 1

Challenges – Computing Power

• Similar challenges as for real-time strategygames (e.g. Dota and StarCraft II):

• Long time horizons for decision making:

• Dota ~20000 moves per game (45 min), Go ~150 moves per game, chess ~40 moves per game

• Imperfect information, e.g. sensor limitations and EW

• Complex observation and action spaces

• As a result, exploration takes longer time:

• E.g. training of Dota: 128,000 CPU cores for simulation rollouts and 256 GPUs for training of neural network model (~180 years of game play experience per day)

14

Page 15: Artificial Intelligence im Kampfjet - WKO.at

COMPANY UNCLASSIFIED | NOT EXPORT CONTROLLED | NOT CLASSIFIED

Your Name | Document Identification | Issue 1

Research - WASP

• Wallenberg AI, Autonomous Systems and

Software Program (WASP) is Sweden’s largest

individual research program ever

• “The program addresses research on artificial

intelligence and autonomous systems acting in

collaboration with humans…”

• 180M€ 2015 + 100M€ 2017

• Vision: Excellent research and competence in

artificial intelligence, autonomous systems and

software for the benefit of Swedish industry

15

Research Arena Public Safety provides a realistic, large scale and

industrially relevant demonstration environment

Page 16: Artificial Intelligence im Kampfjet - WKO.at

COMPANY UNCLASSIFIED | NOT EXPORT CONTROLLED | NOT CLASSIFIED

Your Name | Document Identification | Issue 1

The Future

• Development

• Big Data techniques for post-flight evaluation

• Increased use of AI in aircraft design and production

• Increased use of AI in software development

• Operative use:

• Unmanned platforms augmenting manned platforms in Manned-Unmanned teaming – i.e. work with machines. Best of both worlds strengths.

• Unmanned platforms get increased autonomy over time to achieve high-level goals

• Trust. Predictability.

• Challenges

• Ethics and conventions, Rules-Of-Engagment

• Verification and validation.

• Development in US and China vs Europe?

• Competence

• Safety: That AI never takes a fatal decision, even in case of unpredicted situations?

• Security: That AI cannot be hacked by a malicious person?

• Certification: AI is intrinsically non-deterministic (since it has to face unpredicted situations) How to certify non-deterministic AI?

• Collaboration is key

16

Page 17: Artificial Intelligence im Kampfjet - WKO.at

COMPANY UNCLASSIFIED | NOT EXPORT CONTROLLED | NOT CLASSIFIED

Your Name | Document Identification | Issue 1

Questions and Wrap-up

• Final questions?

17