arpa.e digital transportation workshop...arpa.e digital transportation workshop jason rugolo program...
Transcript of arpa.e digital transportation workshop...arpa.e digital transportation workshop jason rugolo program...
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arpa.e digital transportation workshop
jason rugolo program director
team:
justin manzo technical contractorgeoff short technical contractorpaul d’angio technical contractormike kane fellow
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our theme for the day:
bits not atoms.(or we will be miserable and doomed.)
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171 flights
38 airports
10 carriers
180,000 mi
18d 10h 41m
100% misery
map tool: openFlights.org
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map tool: openFlights.org
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map tool: openFlights.org
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air travel = 2 Q
passenger = 18 Q
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arpa.e has invested in advanced transportation since the beginning
.natural gas vehicles
.electric vehicles
.lightweighting
.optimal route planning and incentives
.powertrain efficiency for autonomous vehicles
.etc
unifying theme:
the new technologies we develop must have market pull(or else they won’t matter)
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market pull => make transportation better => cheaper, faster, convenient
JEVON’S PARADOX
In economics, the Jevons paradox (/ˈdʒɛvənz/; sometimes Jevons effect) occurs when technological progress increases the efficiency with which a resource is used (reducing the amount necessary for any one use), but the rate of consumption of that resource rises because of increasing demand.[1] The Jevons paradox is perhaps the most widely known paradox in environmental economics.[2] However, governments and environmentalists generally assume that efficiency gains will lower resource consumption, ignoring the possibility of the paradox arising.[3]
-Wikipedia.
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16,000 mi/cap (the US "luxurious" number)
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11e9 people(UN mean prediction)
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1 moon round trip
= 460,200 mi
= 36% of lifetime miles
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In 1894, the Times of London estimated that by 1950 every street in the
city would be buried nine feet deep in horse manure.
One New York prognosticator of the 1890s concluded that by 1930 the
horse droppings would rise to Manhattan’s third-story windows.
150,000 horses at 15-30 lbs/day > 3,000,000 lbs/day
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nhts travel purposes
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passenger transportation trichotomy
communication labor experience
to convey or consume information to physically affect environment predominantly to “experience”
we transport ourselves with the objective of:
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someday, we will only travel when we want to.
(and transportation energy will plummet)
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day 1: telecommunication
day 2: telelabor
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Jason Rugolo, Ph.D. Program Director
Justin Manzo, Ph.D. Tech SETAGeoff Short, Ph.D. Tech SETAPaul D’Angio, Ph.D. Tech SETAMike Kane, Ph.D. Fellow
opportunities in telecommunication
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an ideal telecommunication technology would enable me to
call home and feel similar to as if i were there, or to be
introduced to a new business associate and form a trustful
bond. it would generally convey all of the minutia of human
interaction in pleasing fidelity with an unnoticeable decrease
in simultaneity. it would be preferable to me over traveling
even short distances.
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simultaneity
eye contact, gaze
3D sight
depth of field
changing focus
resolution
3D hearing
sound clarity
timbre of voice
agency
what does this vision imply?
posture
hand expressions
body language
interpersonal distance
microexpressions
eye roll, etc
side glances
immersion (v. skype window)
flattering light, angles, etc
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very imperfect history of communications innovations
c. 2.4 mya to 50kya Human speech
c. 10,000 BC Roads
c. 8200 BC Man Powered Boats
c. 6000 BC Writing
c. 5500 BC Sailboats
c. 4000 BC Paved Roads
c. 3500 BC Wheel
c. 3500 BC Wagon
c. 3000 BC Money
c. 2400 BC Mail
c. 2000 BC Paper
c. 600 BC Wagonways
131 BC Newspaper
c. 0 AD Pigeon post
c. 200 AD Woodblock printing
1440 AD Printing press
1792 AD Optical telegraph
1783 AD Steamboat
1804 AD Steam Locomotive
1816 AD Electronic telegraph
1876 AD Telephone
1886 AD Automobile
c. 1920s Radio broadcasting
c. 1928 Television broadcasting
1927 AD Videotelephony
1952 AD Commercial Airliner
c. 1970 AD Videoconference
1973 AD Chatrooms
1973 AD Email
1976 AD Personal Computer
1982 AD Internet
1983 AD Mobile Telephone
1992 AD Text Message
1996 AD Smartphone
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eye-related developments
ear-related developments
touch-related developments
camera sensorshigh resolution screensprojector technolgoies3D displaysHMDs, VR, AR
microphonesspeakersnoise cancellation3D audio
haptic feedbackphysics engines
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massive computational power for cheap
high bandwidth internet everywhere
game and movie rendering, physics engines
consumer adoption of digital interaction
trends
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cisco IX5000
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simultaneity
eye contact, gaze
3D sight
depth of field
changing focus
resolution
3D hearing
sound clarity
timbre of voice
agency
IX5000
posture
hand expressions
body language
interpersonal distance
microexpressions
eye roll, etc
side glances
immersion (v. skype window)
committment (showing up)
flattering light, angles, etc
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second life
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simultaneity
eye contact, gaze
3D sight
depth of field
changing focus
resolution
3D hearing
sound clarity
timbre of voice
agency
second life
posture
hand expressions
body language
interpersonal distance
microexpressions
eye roll, etc
side glances
immersion (v. skype window)
committment (showing up)
flattering light, angles, etc
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abbreviated
technical spacehardware software knowledge
virtual reality
parallax headsetsdirect eye projectionholodecks, cavesbrain computer interfacelimb/gesture trackinggalvanic vestibular stimulationolfactory reproduction
renderingphysics enginesvirtual space standardscompression
acceptanceuncanny valleyattributes for "real"
3d telepresenceholographypepper's ghostglasses-free 3D displays
point cloudvariable compressionface physics
latencyeye contactresolution
2d telepresneceeye contactdedicated hardware
eye contactvariable compression
latencyeye contact
augmented reality
see through headsetsdirect eye projectionlightfield projectionlimb/gesture tracking
renderingphysics enginesAR standards
acceptancevalue
physical telepresence
robotic armshigh torque density actuationhaptic feedbackhuman interfaces
object physics modelspredictive motion
latencykinematicsactuator cost curve
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the digital human is a common need
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telepresence
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http://i.imgur.com/YYVPTR9.gif
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digital presence technical space
fidelityhigh resolution human
cartoonorcaricature
dim
en
sio
na
lity
small 2Dwindow
N.B. presence = audiovisual
immersive3D real life
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how can arpa.e make a difference?
quarterly R&D
msft 2.98B
goog 2.75B
fb 1.05B
csco 1.55B
hp 0.85B
arpa.e 0.003B
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we invest in high technology risk R&D