Around the World in eight maps - Euler Hermes...totally coincidental. I will not tell you either...
Transcript of Around the World in eight maps - Euler Hermes...totally coincidental. I will not tell you either...
Economic Outlookno.1224-1225Spring 2016
Special Atlaswww.eulerhermes.com
Around the Worldin eight maps
Economic Research
Economic Outlook no. 1224-1225| Spring 2016 | Special Atlas Euler Hermes
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Economic ResearchEuler Hermes Group
Economic Outlookno. 1224-1225Special Atlas
Contents
The Economic Outlook is a monthlypublication released by the EconomicResearch Department of Euler HermesGroup. This publication is for the clientsof Euler Hermes Group and available onsubscription for other businesses andorganizations. Reproduction is authorised,so long as mention of source is made.Contact the Economic Research Depart-ment Publication Director and Chief Eco-nomist: Ludovic Subran Macroeconomic Research and CountryRisk: Andrew Atkinson, Ana Boata,Stéphane Colliac, Mahamoud Islam, DanNorth, Daniela Ordóñez, Manfred Stamer(Country Economists)Sector and Insolvency Research:Maxime Lemerle (Head), Farah Allouche,Yann Lacroix, Marc Livinec, Didier Moizo(Sector Advisors)Support: Laetitia Giordanella (OfficeManager) Ilan Goren (Content Manager),Sara Abaid, Thomas Cardiel, SabrinaDelsert, Irène Herlea, Benedetta Scotti(Research Assistants) Editor: Martine BenhadjGraphic Design: Claire Mabille Photo credits: Image Photodisc “Thedesigner Tools”, Maps and NavigationDT03015, Image courtesy of Nicole Klesy,pixabay.com. Under CC0 Public DomainFor further information, contact the Eco-nomic Research Department of EulerHermes Group at 1, place des Saisons92048 Paris La Défense Cedex – Tel.:+33 (0) 1 84 11 50 46 – e-mail: [email protected] > Euler Her-mes Group is a limited company with aDirectoire and Supervisory Board, with acapital of EUR 14 509 497, RCS Nanterre552 040 594 Photoengraving: Talesca Imprimeur deTalents – Permit March-April 2016; issn1 162–2 881 ◾ June 30, 2016
16 SECTOR RISK OUTLOOKTOP-FLOP sectors as of mid 2016
18 COUNTRY RISK OUTLOOK13 changes in country risk ratings since the beginning of 2016
20 OUR PUBLICATIONS
22 SUBSIDIARIES
3 EDITORIAL
4 GDP FORECASTGlobal growth to decelerate in 2016 to its lowest level since the great recession
6 GLOBAL TRADEGlobal Trade to increase in volume in 2016but decrease in value terms
8 CORPORATES' CASH PILEGlobal cash increases in value terms butremains stable when compared to totalassets
10 DAYS SALES OUTSTANDING Global Days Sales Outstanding to remainstable at 64 days in 2016, but 1 out of 4 companies are paid after 90 days
12 BUSINESS INSOLVENCY OUTLOOK Global Insolvencies to increase in 2016 for the first time since 2009
14 INTERNATIONAL DEBT COLLECTIONA three-step road to complexity: Paymentpractices, legal action and insolvency
Euler Hermes Economic Outlook no. 1224-1225| Spring 2016 | Special Atlas
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Euler Hermes Economic Outlook no. 1224-1225| Spring 2016 | Special Atlas
EDITORIAL
Atlas shrugged LUDOVIC SUBRAN
I am not going to do a book review of Ayn Rand’s all-timebest seller. Atlas Shrugged, if you have not read it, depicts adystopian United States, wherein many of society's mostprominent and successful industrialists abandon their for-tunes and the nation itself, in response to aggressive newregulations, whereupon most vital industries collapse. Ringa bell? Any resemblance with existing or past situations istotally coincidental. I will not tell you either about AroundThe World in Eighty Days, a classic adventure novel by theFrench writer Jules Verne in which Phileas Fogg of Londonand his newly employed French valet Passepartout attemptto circumnavigate the world in 80 days. Yet, you can’t ignorethis famous quote: “A true Englishman doesn't joke whenhe is talking about so serious a thing as a wager”. This again,does ring a bell. What on earth happened for Atlas, the giantwho holds the world on his shoulders, to decide to shakethings up like this? One can project many fantasies (and con-spiracy theories) on who nowadays Atlas may be: money,politics, global governance and so forth. In the end whatseems like the new normal is a very turbulent world. Somemay say it is because we get the information a swipe of afinger away and suffer from infobesity, others may believewe actually are on the verge of a revolution or a series ofrevolutions. Globalization and Fordism are questioned to
their core, often in a populist way, yet making them work orreinventing them to ensure inclusiveness, will shape theglobal economic and political agenda for years to come. Tounderstand the world in its complexity, it is important to vi-sualize it. Thomas Friedman would be happy since usingmaps automatically makes the world flat – though we knowsince Galileo it is not (for those who had a doubt). In thisspecial edition of our economic outlook, we decided to draweight maps to understand why so much volatility and whatthe impact on businesses can be. From growth and trade topayment delays and collection practices, we will take you ona trip around the world. One word of caution though: mapsare a great representation but even if borders do not changethat often anymore, the country and sector risks are con-stantly changing. So if you feel that this snapshot may beoutdated or want to see how recent data affect some of theforecasts in this report, you can find a brand new interactiveatlas on the dedicated Euler:Hermes website. Remember:“Anything one man can imagine, other men can make real.”Jules Verne, Around the World in Eighty Days
Image courtesy of Nicole Klesy, pixabay.com. Under CC0 Public Domain
Economic Outlook no. 1224-1225| Spring 2016 | Special Atlas Euler Hermes
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ARUBA
C
68%of globalGDP todeceleratein 2016f:
GDP forecastOutlook
2016
Real GDP growth, annual change, %
Weight* 2014 2015 2016f
GLOBAL GDP 100 2.7 2.6 2.4
United States 22 2.4 2.4 1.9
Brazil 3 0.1 -3.9 -3.5United Kingdom 4 2.9 2.3 1.3Eurozone 17 1.0 1.6 1.6Germany 5 1.6 1.4 1.7France 4 0.7 1.2 1.5Italy 3 -0.3 0.6 1.0Spain 2 1.4 3.2 2.6The Netherlands 1 1.0 2.0 1.4Portugal 0 0.9 1.5 1.3Greece 0 0.7 -0.4 -1.0Central and Eastern Europe 6 1.4 -0.1 1.2Russia 3 0.7 -3.7 -0.9Turkey 1 3.0 4.0 3.6Asia 29 4.8 4.9 4.6China 13 7.3 6.9 6.5Japan 6 -0.1 0.6 0.7India 2 7.2 7.6 7.6Middle East 4 2.6 2.6 2.1Saudi Arabia 1 3.6 3.4 1.5Africa 3 3.5 2.9 2.5South Africa 0 1.5 1.3 0.5
* Weights in global GDP at market prices, 2014
Sources: National sources, IMF, IHS, Euler Hermes forecasts
Euler Hermes Economic Outlook no. 1224-1225| Spring 2016 | Special Atlas
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KIRIBATI
A
COTED’IVOIRE
Global growth to decelerate in 2016 to itslowest level since the great recession
6
-430 USD bnLoss of value expectedin 2016
GlobalTradeOutlook
2016
13 14 15 16f 17f
+3.4%
1.8%
-10.4%
-2.0%
5.7%
Volume Price Value
+3.6% +3.0%+2.2%
+3.0%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
Global trade growth(annual change, %)
Sources: IHS, Euler Hermes
Global Trade to increase in volumein 2016 but decreasein value terms
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Euler Hermes Economic Outlook no. 1224-1225| Spring 2016 | Special Atlas
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Companies heldUSD 7trn cashat the start of 2016(i.e.15% of total assetson average)
Corporates’cash pileOutlook
2016
Global cash increases in valueterms but remains stable whencompared to total assets
Electronics
Metal Agrifood
Transportation Energy
Other services
Automotive
Pharmaceuticals
Telecom Aeronautics
Householdgoods
Construction
Chemicals
Business services
Utilities
Machinery
Retail
Technology
Personalgoods
9% 90 900
Cash
/ Tot
al a
sset
s
Value of cash (USD bn)
35%
25%
15%
Cash pile by sector in 2015
Sources: Bloomberg, Euler Hermes
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Euler Hermes Economic Outlook no. 1224-1225| Spring 2016 | Special Atlas
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Average DSOin China in 2016f:
92 days(+20 days comparedto 2010)
Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)Outlook
2016
Global DSO to remain stable at 64 days in2016, but 1 out of 4companies are paid after 90 days
38
62 62
70 68 75
72 75 77
81 79 83
90 86 85
95 96
107 113 114 115
27
46 46 47 51
54 55 56 58 59 59 63 64
67 68 70 77 79 81
87 89
5
21 23
13
27 21
31 30 25
32 35
38 31
39 44 42
49 46
40
52 55
Re
tail
Tran
spor
tatio
n Ag
rifoo
d Ot
her s
ervic
es
Tele
com
M
etal
Ut
ilitie
s Pe
rson
al g
oods
En
ergy
Hous
ehol
d go
ods
Pape
r Bu
sines
s ser
vices
W
orld
ave
rage
Ae
rona
utics
Au
tom
otive
Ch
emica
ls
Tech
nolo
gy
Phar
mac
eutic
als
Co
nstru
ctio
n M
achi
nery
Elec
troni
cs
DSO level and dispersion by sector in 2015 (number of days)
Sources: Bloomberg, Euler Hermes
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Economic Outlook no. 1224-1225| Spring 2016 | Special Atlas Euler Hermes
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GlobalinsolvencyindexChange in 2016f:
+1%
BusinessInsolvencyOutlook
2016
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16f
forecasts
+4%
North America Index
Asia-Pacific Index
Africa & Middle East Index
Central & Eastern Europe Index
Western Europe Index
Latin America Index
Global Insolvency Index
+7%
+22% +23%
-6%
-15%
-5% -1% -2%
+14%
-6%
+1%
Euler Hermes Global Insolvency Index and regional indicesYearly level basis 100 = 2000
Sources: National figures, Euler Hermes forecasts
Euler Hermes Economic Outlook no. 1224-1225| Spring 2016 | Special Atlas
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Global Insolvencies to increase in 2016for the first time since 2009
Economic Outlook no. 1224-1225| Spring 2016 | Special Atlas Euler Hermes
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International debt collectionOutlook
2016
0 20 40 60 80 100
Insolvency-related complexity
Court-related complexity
Payment-related complexitySwedenGermany
AustriaSwitzerland
SpainBelgium
NetherlandsNew Zealand
IrelandFinlandNorwayFrance
UKPortugal
JapanGreece
DenmarkRomania
CanadaHong_Kong
SingaporeAustralia
IsraelChileUSA
TurkeyItaly
PolandHungary
BrazilCzech Republic
IndiaMorocco
ColombiaThailand
ArgentinaSlovak_Republic
MexicoIndonesia
MalaysiaChinaRussia
UAESaudi Arabia
Collection complexity Overall complexity score, O=least complex, 100= most complex
Source: Euler Hermes
Euler Hermes Economic Outlook no. 1224-1225| Spring 2016 | Special Atlas
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22 out of 44 countrieswith Severe or Very high levelof collection complexity
A three-step road to complexity: Paymentpractices, legal action and insolvency proceedings
Economic Outlook no. 1224-1225| Spring 2016 | Special Atlas Euler Hermes
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SectorriskOutlook
2016
-15 -10 -5 0 5Number of net upgrades (=upgrades-downgrades)
Low
risk
High
RiskMetal
EnergyMachinery& Equipment
Textile
ConstructionPaper
TransportationComputer& Telecom
Retail
Chemicals
Car component
IT Services
Electronics
Householdequipment
Aeronautics
Agrifood
Automotive
Pharmaceutical
Sector risk changes in 2016 (x-axis) and risk level (y-axis)as of end of Q2 2016
Sources: National figures, Euler Hermes forecasts
126 changesin sector risk ratings since the
beginning of 2016 (34 upgrades
92 downgrades)
Euler Hermes Economic Outlook no. 1224-1225| Spring 2016 | Special Atlas
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TOP-FLOP sectors as of mid-2016
Romania
Greece
Economic Outlook no. 1224-1225| Spring 2016 | Special Atlas Euler Hermes
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CountryriskOutlook
2016
Key political events to look for in 2016-2017
Source : Euler Hermes
7countries with
upgradedratings
k 2016
September 11 Croatia Parliamentary election September 18 Russia Parliamentary election October 2 Hungary Referendum on Hungarian sovereignty over immigration policy* October 2 Austria Presidential election (2nd round revoting) October Morocco Parliamentary election October-November Italy Constitutional Referendum November 8 United States Presidential / House of Representatives / Senate elections
2017
February Ecuador Parliamentary election Before March 15 The Netherlands Parliamentary election Avril 23/May 7 France Presidential election (two rounds) June 11/18 France Parliamentary election (two rounds) August Kenya Parliamentary & Presidential elections June Iran Presidential election August-October Germany Parliamentary election Argentina Parliamentary election November 19 Chile Parliamentary & Presidential elections
Euler Hermes Economic Outlook no. 1224-1225| Spring 2016 | Special Atlas
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13 changes in country risk ratingssince the beginning of 2016
6countries withdowngradedratings
l
Economic Outlook no. 1224-1225| Spring 2016 | Special Atlas Euler Hermes
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Economic ResearchEuler Hermes Group
Economic Outlookand otherpublications
Already issued:
no. 1207 ◽ Business Insolvency Worldwide Insolvency World Cup 2014: Who will score fewer insolvencies?
no. 1208-1209 ◽ Macroeconomic, Country Risk and Global Sector Outlook Growth: A giant with feet of clay
no. 1210 ◽ Special Report The global automotive market: Back on four wheels
no. 1211-1212 ◽ Business Insolvency Worldwide A rotten apple can spoil the barrel Payment terms, past dues, non-payments and insolvencies: What to expect in 2015?
no. 1213 ◽ Special Report International debt collection:The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
no. 1214 ◽ Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook Overview 2015: Not such a Grimm tale but no fabled happy ending
no. 1215 ◽ Special Report Global trade: What’s cooking? Introducing twelve countries’ recipes for boosting exports no. 1216 ◽ Macroeconomic, Country Risk and Global Sector Outlook Focus on the signal and ignore the noise
no. 1217-1218 ◽ Macroeconomic, Country Risk and Global Sector Outlook Riding into risks or recovery? no. 1219 ◽ Special Report Auto market - a live wire
no. 1220-1221 ◽ Business Insolvency Worldwide The insolvency U-turn
no. 1222 ◽ Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook The 7 dwarfs of global growth
no. 1223 ◽ Global Sector Outlook Let the Sector games begin
no. 1224-1225 ◽ Special Atlas Around the World in eight maps
To come:
no. 1226- 1227 ◽ Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook no. 1228-1229 ◽ Special Report
Global Sector Outlook
Economic Outlookno.1223 February 2016
www.eulerhermes.com
Let the Sectorgames beginCompanies are having an early startat their own Olympics
Economic Research
Macroeconomicand Country Risk Outlook
EconomicOutlook no. 1222January 2016
www.eulerhermes.com
The 7 dwarfsof global growth
Economic Research
Economic Outlookno.1219 July-August 2015
Special Reportwww.eulerhermes.com
Auto market - a live wire
Economic Research
Business Insolvency Worldwide
Economic Outlookno. 1220-1221September-October 2015
www.eulerhermes.com
The insolvencyU-turn
Economic Research
Euler Hermes Economic Outlook no. 1224-1225| Spring 2016 | Special Atlas
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http://www.eulerhermes.com/economic-research/country-risks/Pages/country-reports-risk-map.aspx
http://www.eulerhermes.com/economic-research/economic-publications/Pages/economic-insights.aspx
: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31PQJI7riyA
CountryReport
◽Aeronautics ◽Agrifood ◽Automotive ◽Chemicals◽Construction ◽Energy ◽Household Equipment ◽Information & Communication
Technologies
◽Machinery & Equipment ◽Metal ◽Paper ◽Pharmaceuticals ◽Retail ◽Textile ◽Transportation
IndustryReport
GlobalSectorReport
http://www.eulerhermes.com/economic-research/economic-publica-tions/Pages/Weekly-Export-Risk-Outlook.aspxN
NN
N
EconomicInsight
◽Worldwide DSO: Paying the penalty for low growth >July 2016◽Brexit: What does it mean for Europe and the world? >May 2016◽Brazil did not need more drama right now >May 2016◽Insolvencies are back: Keep an eye on the domino effect >April 2016◽Why is global growth a FLOP(s)? >April 2016◽Switzerland: Modest export restart in 2016 while survey signals further
growing export risks >April 2016◽Oil prices: Time for (nasty) second-round effects? >March 2016◽Payment Behavior Index (PBI) shows deteriorating conditions >February 2016◽China: MONKEY forces for the Year of the Monkey >February 2016◽Brexit me if you can: Companies to suffer the most >February 2016
◽United Kingdom◽Finland (upgrade)◽Romania (upgrade)◽Serbia (upgrade) ◽Bulgaria◽Burkina Faso ◽China ◽Congo DR ◽Costa Rica ◽Cote d’Ivoire
◽Czech Republic ◽Germany ◽Hungary ◽Japan ◽Kuwait ◽Morocco ◽New Zealand ◽Nigeria ◽Peru ◽Portugal
◽Senegal ◽Slovak Republic ◽South Korea ◽Tanzania ◽UAE◽Uruguay ◽United States◽Vietnam
http://www.eulerhermes.com/economic-research/sector-riskshttp://www.eulerhermes.com/economic-research/sector-risks
WeeklyExport RiskOutlook
TheEconomicTalk
June 2016 updates
NN
◽US Oil >February 2016◽US Retail >January 2016◽US Household equipment >February 2016◽France agrifood >November 2015◽US agrifood >November 2015◽Germany agrifood >October 2015◽Construction in Germany >October 2015◽US Auto Industry Outlook >September 2015◽US Steel Industry Outlook >July 2015
February 2016
Economic Outlook no. 1224-1225| Spring 2016 | Special Atlas Euler Hermes
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>ColombiaSolunionCalle 7 Sur No. 42-70Edificio Fōrum II Piso 8MedellinPhone: +57 4 444 01 45
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>MexicoSolunionTorre PolancoMariano Escobedo 476, Piso 15Colonia Nueva Anzures11590 Mexico D.F.Phone: +52 55 52 01 79 00
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>UruguayPlease contact Argentina
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Euler Hermes Economic Outlookis published monthly by the Economic Research Departmentof Euler Hermes Group1, place des Saisons, F-92048 Paris La Défense Cedex e-mail: [email protected] - Tel. : +33 (0) 1 84 11 50 50
This document reflects the opinion of the Economic Research Department of Euler Hermes Group.
The information, analyses and forecasts contained herein are based on the Department's current
hypotheses and viewpoints and are of a prospective nature. In this regard, the Economic Research
Department of Euler Hermes Group has no responsibility for the consequences hereof and no
liability. Moreover, these analyses are subject to modification at any time.
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