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Answering Your QuestionsArmstrong v Kondratieff? Copyright June 27th, 2011

There is always a tendency, I suppose, to cast everything in a black or white confrontation.

Kondratieffs work is distinctly different from my own, yet the commonality is the central thesis of

a business cycle. The difference is largely what is being measured. Kondratieff took the economy

at face value and the world was substantially different then. Implicit in his work is both war and

the transition of the Industrial Revolution. At the time, commodities accounted for about 70% of

the economy in the 19th century, 40% by 1900, and less than 10% by 1980.

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This chart on inflation illustrates the

incorporation of war in the raw data used

by Kondratieff. If he were alive today, his

model would be biased toward theservice industry. The problem people are

creating by comparing me to Kondratieff

is they are creating a confrontation rather

than looking at the commonality long

wave theory of the business cycle.

I have written numerous times how I

began with a list of panics that composed

26 within a 224 year period that produced a wave duration of 8.6 years. I then found that 6 waves

constructed a major wave of 51.6 years. Because I began with a list ofPanics, there was no biasinsofar as any particular sector was involved. It became obvious that the sectors would change for

each boom and bust, but the point was there was something that boomed and bust. It was a cycle

ofpanics rather than a particular sector. I back-tested through history and was stunned how the

same frequency worked in ancient times as it did in modern times.

Here is a chart of after the economic meltdown

during the 3rd century Rome. Even the reforms

imposed by the Roman Emperor Diocletian that

did away with the old Greek tetradrachms that

were once silver in the days of Pericles replacing

them with a bronze Follis, that reform in 295AD

was merely followed by a return of debasement

and collapse in weight of the coin. The next

monetary reform doing away with the Follis and

replacing it with the Centenionalis, came in

348AD right in line with the 51.6 year wave

formation. There are countless examples from history that show the same thing. The rise and fall

of nations and even the Dark Age was 6 waves of 51.6 years amounting to 309.6 years. The entire

monetary history of mankind with his rise and fall of empires, nations, and city states simply beat

to this frequency that in itself incorporates everything around it including natural events such as

environment. It turned out after collaborating with scientists studying ice core samples, that there

was about a 300 year cycle in the energy output of the sun and when plotted along the data of the

rise and fall of civilization, it too fit nicely. There is so much incorporated within this frequency

that it will take another lifetime to unravel all its mysteries. Kondratieff and I began with different

data and arrive at different conclusions, yet were united in the basic idea of long-wave theory. It is

not a confrontation, but is a true collaboration in the evolution of knowledge for one does not

invalidate the other.

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