Arms flows and the conflict in Somalia

8/7/2019 Arms flows and the conflict in Somalia

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arms-flows-and-the-conflict-in-somalia 1/12

SIPRI Backgrn Paper

SuRY

w A United Nations arms

embargo restricts arms fows to

Somalia. However, supplies to

the Transitional Federal

Government (TFG) are allowed

and the UN has urged the

international community to

supply arms to the TFG a nd the

Arican Union Mission in

Somalia (AMISOM).

Somali non-state actors

continue to obtain weapons

rom external sources. Eritrea,in particular, is accused o

having supported Somali

opposition groups since at least

2005. It is now under a separate

arms embargo.

Both the TFG and AMISOM

need arms, but risks and

diculties associated with

providing them put potential

suppliers in a dilemma. The

TFG has been accused o human

rights abuses. Also, TFG armshave gone missing and both

TFG and AMISOM materiel has

ended up with opposition

groups. Neither the TFG nor

AMISOM seems to have a

system in place or controlling

arms stockpiles. The United

States and the European Union

(EU) both militarily support

the TFG, but EU members seem

unwilling to supply arms.

Arms supplies to Ethiopiarisk complicating the situation

in Somalia or being used in

internal repression. Supplies to

Ethiopia could also aggravate

tensions with Eritrea.

AMISOM contributors

Burundi and Uganda have both

been accused o human rights

abuses and diverting arms to

confict areas, and are aected

by their own internal conficts.

October 2010

RS flowS d h

oflI I SolI

p d. wzm*

I. Introduction

International resonses to the rotrate instaility an violene in Soalia

have inle oth eneral restritions on ars slies to the ontry an

arin seif ators. A Unite Nations earo iose in 1992 ans ars

slies to non-state ators. Sine late 2006, the UN has sorte the se o

ilitary ore y an in sort o the Soali Transitional Feeral Govern-

ent (TFG) an i not hiner or orally rotest at a ilitary intervention

y Ethioian ores in late 2006 intene to olster the TFG.

This Baron Paer issses reent ars slies to Soalia an to

Arian external ators involve in the onit, alon ith the riss assoi-

ate ith slyin ars to the TFG an its sorters. Setion II ives

rie aron inoration on the onit, are ators in Soalia an

the ars earo. Setion III issses ars os to Soali oosition

ros an setion IV to Eritrea, onsiere one o the ain aversaries o

the TFG. Setion V exaines ars slies to the TFG.1 Slies to Ethioia

an artiiants in the Arian Union Mission in Soalia (AMISOM) are

issse in setion VI. Setion VII oers onlsions.

II. Background

Soalia has exeriene nearly three eaes o instaility an intrastate

onit o varyin intensity. The any ative are ros in Soalia

rane ro non-state ators ith learly olitial aenas to loal ilitias

an riinal ans. Allianes eteen the ros an their ations shit

reqently. The ain are Soali oosition ro in 2010, al-Shaa (the

1 For reasons o space, arms ows to the autonomous Somali regions o Puntland and Somaliland

are not discussed here. While the distinction between political and criminal violence in Somalia is

oten unclear, arms ows to criminal groups, including those engaged in piracy, are also not covered.

On criminal violence in Somalia see Stepanova, E., ‘Armed conict, crime and criminal violence’,

SIPRI Yearbook 2010: Armaments, Disarmamant and International Security (Oxord University

Press: Oxord 2010), pp. 46–50.

* This paper is part o the SIPRI Project on Monitoring Arms Flows to Arica and

Assessing the Practical Regional and National Challenges and Possibilities or a

Relevant and Functioning Arms Trade Treaty. The project is unded by the SwedishMinistry or Foreign Aairs.



2 p bckgud pp

Yoth), ontrols h o the ontry. Both TFG ores an non-state ators

have een ase o inisriinate an tarete violene aainst ivilians. 2

Fro 1992 to 2004 Soalia ha no oral national overnent. In Jan-

ary 1992 the UN Serity Conil iose a ‘eneral an olete’ earo

on the rovision o ars an ilitary eqient to Soalia, hih as

extene to inle ilitary trainin an assistane in 2002.3 The TFG as

ore in 2004 an eae the internationally reonie overnent o

Soalia. The TFG ontines to have the sort o the international o-

nity, althoh it has liite athority insie Soalia.

In 2006 the ars earo as aene to erit the sly o

ars, trainin an ilitary assistane ‘intene solely or the sort

o or se y’ a lanne Arian-le eaeeein ission to Soalia. 4

AMISOM as lanhe in early 2007. Aon its tass as to ailitate the

re-estalishent o the Soali serity ores.

In Deeer 2006 Ethioian ores entere Soalia to rive a oos-

ition ros ho threatene the srvival o the TFG.5 While not athoriin

the intervention, the UN i not orally oose it, an Ethioian ores

reaine in the ontry ntil early 2009.

The ost sinifant oifation to the ars earo as ae in

Ferary 2007, hen states ere exliitly eritte to sly ars to

TFG serity ores. Sh slies st have the rior aroval o the UN

Santions Coittee on Soalia.6 In resonse to ersistent violations o

the earo, the Serity Conil eie in Noveer 2008 that an ars

earo ol e iose on entities involve in sh violations.7

III. Arms supplies to Somali opposition groups

Jin y reorts o the UN Monitorin Gro on Soalia, non-state ators

in Soalia have aqire ars an anition ro a variety o sores

an y a variety o hannels.8 In eneral sh aqisitions have involve lo

voles o anition, sall ars an liht eaons (SALW) an a e

heavier, re-serve inantry eaons sh as ortale anti-airrat an

2 See Stepanova, E., ‘Trends in armed conicts: one-sided violence against civilians’, SIPRI Year‑

book 2009: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security (Oxord University Press: Oxord,

2009), pp. 46–52.

3 UN Security Council Resolution 733, 23 Jan. 1992; UN Security Council Resolution 794, 3 Dec.1992; and UN Security Council Resolution 1407, 3 May 2002. UN Security Council resolutions can be

accessed at <http://www.un.org/documents/scres.htm>. For details o the embargo and its amend-

ments see the SIPRI Arms Embargoes Database, <http://www.sipri.org/databases/embargoes>.4 UN Security Council Resolution 1725, 6 Dec. 2006.5 See Lindberg, S. and Melvin, N. J., ‘Major armed conicts’, SIPRI Yearbook 2007: Armaments,

Disarmament and International Security (Oxord University Press: Oxord, 2007), pp. 72–78.6 UN Security Council Resolution 1744, 20 Feb. 2007. The Sanctions Committee was established

in 1992 under UN Securit y Council Resolution 751, 24 Apr. 1992.7 UN Security Council Resolution 1844, 20 Nov. 2008.8 The Monitoring Group was established in 2004 to monitor implementation o the embargo.

Doubts have been voiced about the reliability o some o its reports as they cite unverifable ‘intel-

ligence sources’ and have included some implausible details. Wezeman, S. T. et al., ‘International

arms transers’, SIPRI Yearbook 2007: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security

(Oxord University Press: Oxord, 2007), p. 412. Reports o the Monitoring Group are available at<http://www.un.org/ sc/committees/751/index.shtml>.



m w d cc m 3

anti-tan eaons.9 Soe slies have een rovie iretly y aers in

neihorin states.10 In artilar, Eritrea is thoht to have slie ars

an other assistane to Soali oosition ros. Coerial ars arets

in Soalia have orishe oenly esite the earo an are iortant

sores o ars an anition or non-state ators an riinal ros.

Catre TFG an AMISOM stoiles are another sore o ars an

anition or oosition ros, an it has een reorte that Ethioian,

TFG an AMISOM ersonnel have sol ateriel to non-state ros.

In 2005 the Monitorin Gro reorte that Eritrea ha sorte an

are ros in Soalia fhtin the TFG.11 The Monitorin Gro’s Marh

2010 reort also states that Eritrea has rovie sinifant an sstaine

olitial, fnanial an aterial sort, inlin ars,

anition an trainin, to are oosition ros

in Soalia sine at least 2007.12 Eritrea’s involveent is

enerally esrie as an attet to onter Ethioian

inene in the reion, eseially ease it ereives the

TFG as a roxy or the Ethioian Governent. In 2008 the

Eritrean Governent laie that it rse a oliy o non-intererene in

Soali aairs an enie Monitorin Gro alleations that it ha are

oosition ros.13

The Monitorin Gro onsiers oerial iorts, ainly ro Yeen,

to e the ost onsistent sore o ars an anition or Soali oos-

ition an riinal ros, althoh sine Jne 2008 rs on oesti ars

sales in Yeen have aarently ree the vole o exorts to Soalia

an riven ries in Soali arets.14 Ars rhases y oosition

ros have reortely een ailitate y fnanin ro Eritrea, rivate

onors an Soali iasora ros.15

TFG ores are also onsiere a ajor sore o ars or non-state are

ros in Soalia. In 2008 the UN Monitorin Gro estiate that as

h as 80 er ent o the ars, anition an other ateriel slie

to sort the TFG ha een iverte or rivate roses, to the Soali

9 United Nations, Security Council, Report o the Monitoring Group on Somalia pursuant to

Security Council Resolution 1853 (2008), annex to S/2010/91, 10 Mar. 2010, pp. 6, 46–47.

10 In Nov. 2006 the Monitoring Group reported suspicions that the governments o Djibouti,Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Libya, Saudi Arabia and Syria had all been involved in the supply o arms to

Somali armed groups. All denied it. United Nations, Security Council, Report o the Monitoring

Group on Somalia pursuant to Security Council Resolution 1853 (2008), annex to S/2007/436, 18 July

2007, p. 26. In reports rom 2008 on these accusations are not mentioned again.11 United Nations, Security Council, Report o the Monitoring Group on Somalia pursuant to

Security Council resolution 1639 (2005), annex to S/2006/229, 4 May 2006, pp. 10–13. 12 United Nations (note 9), p. 22.13 Araya Desta, Permanent Representative o Eritrea to the United Nations, Response o the

Goverment o Eritrea to the Monitoring Group, 20 Mar. 2008, reproduced in United Nations, Secur-

ity Council, Report o the Monitoring Group on Somalia submitted in accordance with resolution

1766 (2007), annex to S/2008/274, 24 Apr. 2008, pp. 54–55.14 United Nations, Security Council, Report o the Monitoring Group on Somalia pursuant to

Security Council Resolution 751 (1992), annex to S/2008/769, 10 Dec. 2008, p. 6.; and United Nations

(note 9), p. 6.15 United Nations (note 14), p. 6.

Commercial imports are considered to

be the most consistent source of arms

for Somali opposition groups



4 p bckgud pp

ars aret or to oosition ros.16 It is allee that eers o the TFG

serity ores have sol their eaons.17

In Aril 2008 the Monitorin Gro allee that oers o the Ethioian

nits still resent in Soalia an Uanan oers servin ith AMISOM

ha sol ars an anition taen ro their on ores’ stoiles, an

ro stoiles o atre or onfsate ars, to traers in the Soali

ars arets an iretly to are oosition ros.18 Hoever, these

alleations have not een reeate or elaorate on in sseqent reorts,

raisin qestions aot their reliaility.

IV. Arms supplies to Eritrea

Desite ersistent alleations o violations o the earo on Soalia,

the UN only too seif ation aainst Eritrea— in the or o santions,

inlin an ars earo— in Deeer 2009.19

Belars, Blaria an Frane have all reorte ain transers o ars

an ilitary eqient to Eritrea eteen 2006 an 2009. Belars s-

lie nine BM-22 ltile roet lanhers in 2007.20 Blaria reorte

the exort o ites relate to liht eaons orth €164 429 an nsei-

fe anition orth €3 209 383 to Eritrea in 2006, an o ites relate

to liht eaons orth €150 000 an nseife anition orth €2.1

illion in 2008.21 The 2008 eliveries ere roaly relate to the sly

o 50 82- ortars in 2008 reorte y Blaria in the UN Reister o

Conventional Ars.22 Blaria as also an iortant slier o ars

to Eritrea eore 2006, slyin 120 T-55 tans, 10 MT-LB arore

ersonnel arriers (APCs) an 20 2S1 122- sel-roelle hoiters

in 2005.23 Frane reorte that in 2006 Eritrea ha reeive nseife

eletroni eqient esine or ilitary se relate to airrat orth

€0.6 illion, althoh the reort las sient etail to eterine hether

these ol have een al-se ites slie or non-ilitary se.24

16 United Nations (note 14), p. 7.17 United Nations (note 14), p. 40. Desertions and deections by trained TFG personnel are con-

sidered an even bigger problem.18 United Nations (note 13), pp. 30–31.

19 UN Security Council Resolution 1907, 23 Dec. 2009. The Security Council was acting in part

under Resolution 1844 (note 6), para 8(b), but the sanctions were also a response to Eritrea’s reusal

to withdraw its armed orces rom territory disputed by Djibouti and Eritrea and to engage in diplo-

matic dialogue about the matter. The USA banned all arms sales to Eritrea in Sep. 2005 citing what

it considered state repression o religious reedom. US Department o State, Bureau o Political-Militar y Aairs, ‘Suspension o deense export licenses to Eritrea’, Public notice 5335, 12 Sep. 2005,

Federal Register, vol. 71, no. 43, 6 Mar. 2006, p. 11 281.20 UN Register o Conventional Arms (UNROCA) database, <http://unhq-appspub-01.un.org/

UNODA/UN_REGISTER.ns>.21 Bulgarian Ministry o Economy and Energy, [Report on the implementation o the Law on the

Foreign Trade in Military Equipment and Dual-use Goods and Technologies: 2006], 2007, avail-

able at <http://www.sipri.org/research/armaments/transers/transparency/national_reports/>

(in Bulgarian); and Council o the European Union, Annual Report according to Operative

Provision 8 o the European Union Code o Conduct on Arms Exports, Ofcial Journal o the Euro‑

pean Union, C300, 22 Nov. 2008, p. 74.22 UN Register o Conventional Arms (UNROCA) database (note 20).23 UN Register o Conventional Arms (UNROCA) database (note 20).24 French Ministr y o Deence, Rapport au parlement sur le exportations d’armament de la France

en 2006 [Report to Parliament on export s o arma ments rom France in 2006], Nov. 2007, availableat <http://www.sipri.org/research/armaments/transers/transparency/national_reports/>, p. 157.



m w d cc m 5

Other ontries ay also have slie ars to Eritrea ithot reortin

it sine 2005, hen the Monitorin Gro frst reorte alleations that Eri-

trea ha violate the earo on Soalia. Rssia

as a sinifant ars slier to Eritrea to

2005, or instane exortin 80 9M133 (AT-14) anti-

tan issiles to Eritrea in 2005 an 2 MiG-29SMT

oat airrat in 2004, an ay have elivere

sare arts an anition or these ites ater

2005.25 Also, in 2005 Isaias Aeeri, the Eritrean Presient, iniate an

interest in yin rots ro a Paistani ars atory he visite.26

The ain Soalia-relate onern aot ars eliveries to Eritrea eore

the ars earo o Deeer 2009 is the ris that the eqient eliv-

ere, eseially liht eaons an anition, as or ol e iverte to

oosition ros in Soalia.

V. Arms supplies to the Transitional Federal GovernmentArs ha alreay een slie to the TFG eore the UN Serity Conil

orally li te the earo or slies to overnent ores in 2007. Soe

slies sine then have een in tehnial violation o the earo as they

have not een arove y the Santions Coittee.

The Yeeni Governent state in 2005 that it ha slie 5000 ‘ersonal

ars’ as ai to the TFG in Jly 2005, in resonse to a reqest ro the Soali

Presient, Allahi Ys Ahe.27 The Monitorin Gro also reorte

alleations that ars ha een elivere in 2006 ro Uana to the TFG.28

Ethioia has reortely een a rinial state slier o ars, a-

nition an trainin to the TFG sine 2005.29 Sine 2007, Ethioia has not

notife the Santions Coittee o its slies to the TFG an reliale

inoration on the ateriel involve is not availale.

Litin the earo in relation to the TFG in 2007 as onsiere rial

or the TFG’s srvival olloin the Ethioian ores’ exete ithraal,

as its ores ere aly ner-eqie.30 In Jly 2009, hen the TFG one

aain looe liely to e overrn y oosition ores, the UN Seretary-

General, Ban Ki-oon, ent rther an alle on the international o-

nity to rovie rent ilitary sort, inlin ars, to the TFG.31

In Jne 2009 the US Governent annone that it as ailitatin the

sly o sall ars an anition to the TFG.32 The USA has elare

25 SIPRI Arms Transers Database, <http://www.sipri.org/databases/armstransers/>.26 ‘Eritrea president appreciates POF [Pakistan Ordnance Factories] arms quality’, Business

Monitor, 26 Feb. 2005.27 United Nations, Security Council, Report o the Monitoring Group on Somalia pursuant to

Security Council Resolution 1587 (2005), annex to S/2005/625, 4 Oct. 2005, pp. 12–13.28 United Nations (note 27), pp. 14–15; United Nations, Security Council (note 11), pp. 13–14; and

United Nations, Security Council, Report o the Monitoring Group on Somalia pursuant to Securit y

Council Resolution 1676, annex to S/2006/913, 22 Nov. 2006, p. 27.29 United Nations (note 27), pp. 14–15; a nd United Nations (note 9), pp. 47, 55.30 Geland, L., ‘Donors pledge unds or Somali security reorm’, Jane’s Deence Weekly, 29 Apr.

2009, p. 20.31 Lederer, E., ‘UN chie urges military support or Somalia’, Associated Press, 21 July 2009.32 US Department o State, ‘Background briefng on U.S. assistance to the Somalia Transitional

Federal Government’, Press Release 2009/649, 26 June 2009, <http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/ index.htm>.

European countries have supplied arms

to Eritrea despite allegations that it hadviolated the embargo on Somalia



6 p bckgud pp

that it rovies liite ilitary sort to the TFG in ‘the fr elie that

the TFG sees to en the violene in Soalia that is ase y al-Shaaa

an other extreist oraniations’.33 Drin 2009 an to Marh 2010,

94 tonnes o eaons, inlin ries, ahine ns an

82- ortars ere elivere to the TFG y Uana, hih

reortely too the ro the stos o its on are

ores.34 The USA reirse Uana or this ith an

nnon s o oney. In May 2009 the US Governent

also alie to the Santions Coittee or an earo exetion to sly

to $2 illion (€1.4 illion) in ash to the TFG to rore eaons an

loistial slies ‘loally’, resaly in art ro Soali ars arets.35

The ain overnent-aline non-state ator in Soalia in 2008–2009

as the Ahl Snna al Jaa’a (ASWJ). In Jne 2009 the TFG reahe a

ooeration areeent ith the ASWJ an in Noveer orally reqeste

ars or the ro ro Ethioia, araly ivin it the stats o a leitiate

serity setor instittion. Hoever, even eore this, Ethioia ha een

roviin ilitary sort to the ASWJ.36

Risks of supplying arms to the Transitional Federal Government

There are several riss assoiate ith the sly o ars to the TFG ores.

First, there have een reeate an reile reorts that TFG ores have

se their eaons in isroortionate an inisriinate attas resltin

in ivilian asalties.37

Seon, any o the eaons slie to the TFG ores have ene

in the hans o non-state ators (as esrie in setion III). It is not non

hether or ho international sliers o ars to the TFG have trie to

revent the iversion o TFG ars. For exale, eaons ro US-ne

ars onsinents have reortely ene in Soali ars arets.38 The

US Governent has elare that any US ilitary assistane or the TFG

‘is aonte or an aite throh ehaniss’.39 Hoever, etails o

these ehaniss are not li, an it is not non hether they inle

a syste or ontrollin the eaons slie. It is also nlear hether the

USA has assiste the TFG or AMISOM in investiatin allee thets an

illiit sales o ars y their on ersonnel. More seifally, it is not non

hether the eaons reently slie y the USA via Uana ere are

an reistere eore ein elivere to Soalia or eore they ere istri-

te to inivial TFG soliers, or hether any attet has een ae to

onitor their hereaots sseqently. The notifations y the USA to the

UN Santions Coittee rearin the elivery inle inoration aot

33 US Department o State, ‘U.S. policy in Somalia’, Press Release 2010/296, 12 Mar. 2010, <http://

www.state.gov/p/a/rls/rm/2010/138314.htm>.34 United Nations (note 9), p. 54; and Amnesty International, Somalia: International Military and

Policing Assistance Should be Reviewed, AFR 52/001/2010 (Amnesty International: London, Jan.

2010), p. 11.35 Amnesty International (note 34), p.12; and Dickinson, E., ‘Arming Somalia’, Foreign Policy,

10 Sep. 2009.36 United Nations (note 9), pp. 11–13, 55.37 Human Rights Watch, Harsh War, Harsh Peace: Abuses by al‑Shabaab, the Transitional Federal

Government, and AMISOM in Somalia (Human Rights Watch: New York, Apr. 2010); Amnesty

International (note 34); and Stepanova (note 1).

38 United Nations (note 9), p. 54.39 US Department o State (note 33).

Ethiopia is thought to have been a keysupplier of arms to the TFG since 2005



m w d cc m 7

the tyes o eaon t inoration aot the tehnial seifations,

qantities an arins as insient to allo easy train.40

The riss o slyin ars to the TFG ay e the reason or hat sees to

e reltane y Eroean Union (EU) eer states to sly ars to the

TFG. In May 2010 the EU lanhe a one-year rorae, the EU Trainin

Mission (EUTM), roviin ilitary trainin to aron 2000 eers o

the TFG serity ores, inlin in ran arare. The trainin too lae

in as in Uana.41 Hoever, as ar as is non, no inivial EU eer

state has slie ars to the TFG ores traine y the EUTM, an there

are sins that this is a elierate oliy. For exale, the Dth Governent

has state that it oes not eliver eaons to the TFG, even hile stressin

the iortane o an ineenent Soali Ary an olie ore.42

VI. Arms supplies to external supporters of the Transitional

Federal Government

Ethiopia

Althoh the Monitorin Gro onsiere the Ethioian ilitary resene

in Soalia ro 2006 to 2009 to e a violation o the ars earo, the UN

Serity Conil never orally roteste aainst it.43 Ethioia’s interven-

tion in Soalia inle the eloyent o are ores ith sh eqi-

ent as artillery, tans an oat airrat.44 Sine ithrain its ores

ro Soali territory, Ethioia has reaine an ative sorter o the TFG.

No elivery o olete ajor eaons to Ethioia has

een reorte sine 2005.45 Drin 1997–2004—a erio

that inle a ajor are onit eteen Eritrea an

Ethioia—Ethioia rore sinifant ners o ajor

eaons, ainly ro Rssia.46 It is liely that at least s-

lies o sare arts an siilar ro Rssia have ontine.

EU eer states have reorte the elivery o ilitary eqient to

Ethioia in 2004–2008. Drin that erio, Blaria reorte total exorts

o ilitary oos to Ethioia orth €8.3 illion, the Ceh Reli

€12.3 illion, Frane €2.6 illion, Hnary €3.3. illion an Roania

€1 illion.47

40 Amnesty International (note 34), p. 12; and Secretariat o the Security Council Committee

established pursuant to resolution 751 (1992) concerning Somalia, personal communication with

the author, 17 Aug. 2010.41 European Union, ‘EU military mission to contribute to the training o the Somali Security

Forces’, Fact sheet, June 2010, <http://www.consilium.europa.eu/showPage.aspx?id=1872>.42 Verhagen, M. J. M., ‘Nederlandse deelname aan vredesmissies’ [Dutch participation in

peacekeeping missions], Letter rom the Minister o Foreign Aairs to the President o the House

o Representatives, dossier 29521, no. 129, 12 Dec. 2009.43 United Nations (note 13), pp. 30–31.44 United Nations, Security Council, 5614th meeting, S/PV.5614, 26 Dec. 2006, p. 3.45 SIPRI Arms Transers Database (note 25).46 SIPRI Arms Transers Database (note 25). The major armed conict between Eritrea and

Ethiopia took place between 1998 and 2000. For more inormation see Seybolt, T. M., ‘Major armed

conicts’, SIPRI Yearbook 2001: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security, pp. 26–30.47 European Union, Annual reports according to Operative Provision 8 o the European Union

Code o Conduct on Arms Exports, 2005–2008, and 11th Annua l Report According to Article 8(2) o

Council Common Position 2008/944/CFSP, 2009, available at <http://www.consilium.europa.eu/ showPage.aspx?id=1484>.

EU member states and the USA have

provided military assistance, including arms, to Ethiopia



8 p bckgud pp

The USA alls Ethioia an

iortant artner in onter-

terroris an a rost ontri-

tor to international eaeeein

oerations.48 Drin the erio

2005–2008 the USA slie

Ethioia ith $11 illion

(€7.8 illion) in ilitary eqi-

ent.49 The USA has rovie

ilitary ai to Ethioia in reent

years throh its Forein Military

Finanin (FMF) rorae.

In oth 2008 an 2009 Ethioia

reeive $843 000 (€586 000)

ner the rorae an as

shele to reeive another

$3 illion (€2.2 illion) in 2010.

Hoever, this ai has een sall

oare to hat other US allies

sh as Iraq or Paistan have

reeive.

Risks of supplying arms to

Ethiopia

Contries slyin ars to

Ethioia st onsier hether

oin so ol sort a oten-

tial tre nathorie Ethio-

ian resene in Soalia an the ossiility that Ethioia ill violate the

ars earo on Soalia y slyin eaons to the TFG ithot roer

athoriation or y slyin ars iretly to non-state ators. Any eision

to sly ars aie at olsterin Ethioia’s aaility to rotet its orers

ith Soalia st also tae into aont the ris that sh slies ay

strenthen the restritive Ethioian olitial syste an ol e se in

the rotrate interstate onits eteen the Ethioian Governent an

reel ros in the Oaen an Oroiya reions. Finally, the ris reains o

a renee ar eteen Ethioia an Eritrea, an arin Ethioia ol e

seen as otentially settin the ilitary alane in the reion.50

48 US Department o State, Congressional Budget Justication, Foreign Operations, Fiscal Year

2010, Book II, p. 52.49 In addition to this directly supplied military equipment, the US Government authorized

the export by US companies to Ethiopia o ‘deense articles and services’ valued at $37 million

(€27 million) in US fscal years 2004–2008. However it is not known how many o these ar ticles were

delivered and to what extent they were intended or use by the Ethiopian armed orces. Grimmett,

R. F., ‘U.S. arms sales: agreements with and deliveries to major clients, 2001–2008’, Congressional

Research Service, 2 Dec 2009; and data on direct commercial sales authorizations in reports by the

US Department o State pursuant to Section 655 o the Foreign Assistance Act, available at <http://

www.sipri.org/research/armaments/transers/transparency/national_reports>.50 Both Eritrea and Ethiopia were under a UN embargo rom 1999 to 2000. See Wezeman,

P. D., ‘United Nations arms embargoes: their impact on arms ows and target behaviour: case study:

Eritrea and Ethiopia, 2000–2001’, SIPRI, 2007, <http://books.sipri.org/product_ino?c_product_id=356#>.

Table 1. Denials o licences or arms exports to our Arican countries by

European Union members, 2004–2008

Figures are numbers o licence denials. Figures in brackets are the criteria on which the

reusals were based.a

Country 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Burundi 2 (3,4) 1 (4) – – –Eritrea 1 (1) 1 (4) – – –Ethiopia 1 (4) 5 (2,3,4) 2 (2,4) 4 (3,4) –Uganda 4 (2,3,4) 8 (3,4,7,8) 5 (2,3,7) 5 (2,3,4,7,8) 2 (4)

a The 8 European Union (EU) criteria governing control o exports o military equip-

ment and technology can be summarized as ollows.

1. Against an EU or United Nations arms embargo or a non-prolieration agreement.

2. Could be used in human rights abuses or breaches o international humanitarian law.

3. Could contribute to provocation, prolongation or aggravation o tension or conict.

4. Could be used in an act o international aggression.

5. Could be used in acts that endanger the national security o EU member states and

their allies.

6 The recipient supports terrorism or ails to respect international law.

7. Could be diverted in the buyer country or re-exported under undesirable conditions.

8. Is incompatible with the technical and economic capacity o the buyer country.

Sources: European Union, Annual reports according to Operative Provision 8 o the

European Union Code o Conduct on Arms Exports, 2005–2008, and 11th Annual Report

according to Article 8(2) o Council Common Position 2008/944/CFSP, available at

<http://www.consilium.europa.eu/showPage.aspx?id=1484>; and Council Common Pos-

ition 2008/944/CFSP o 8 Dec. 2008 defning common rules governing control o exports

o military technology and equipment, Ofcial Journal o the European Union , L335,

13 Dec. 2008.



m w d cc m 9

Several EU ontries have rese to erit the sly o ilitary eqi-

ent to Ethioia, itin onerns aot han rihts an internal an

reional eae an staility (see tale 1). Also, the US Hose o Reresen-

tatives asse a ill in 2007 itin han rihts onerns that ol have

t onitions on ilitary ai to Ethioia, t the ill never eae la.51

AMISOM

AMISOM reains sinifantly short o its anate troo strenth an

in nee o aeqate eqient.52 For exale, in Marh 2009 Brni

aeale or arore ersonnel arriers an oy aror or its AMISOM

troos.53 At the AU sit in Jly 2010 Jean Pin, the AU Coission

Chairan, state that AMISOM as in nee o tatial helioters an

other eqient, hih he are shol e rovie y the international

onity.54 Inee, ner the Serity Conil resoltion anatin

AMISOM, UN eer states are re to rovie fnanial resores,

ersonnel, eqient an servies to the oeration.55

As o Otoer 2010 only Uana an Brni rovie troos to AMISOM.

Uana has een the ajor troo ontritor to AMISOM, eloyin troos

sorte y arore vehiles an tans. Desite an internal onit an

its artiiation in AMISOM an other eae oerations, Uana’s iorts

o ajor ars have een relatively oest.56 In the erio 2004–2009, ajor

eaon eliveries to Uana inle 31 seon-han BMP-2 arore

vehiles an 1000 atoati ries ro Uraine; 31 Bel liht arore

vehiles ro Soth Aria; 23 T-55 tans ro Belars; an 23 nseife

tans ro Rssia.57 Ars iorts y Brni have een even ore liite. No iorts o

ajor onventional eaons have een ientife or the erio 2005–2009.

Alania reorte slyin 115 510 artries o 12.7- alire to Brni

in 2009.58 It has also een reorte that lare ners o liht an sall

alire eaons ere elivere to Brni in 2008 ro an nientife

sore.59 Montenero has reorte that 34 FAB-100 airrat os ro

51 Jopson, B. and Dombey, D., ‘Ethiopia bill aces Bush backlash’, Financial Times, 3 Oct. 2007;

and Ethiopia Democracy and Accountability Act o 2007, Bill approved by the US House o Rep-

resentatives and submitted to the Senate, 3 Oct. 2007, <http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.

xpd?bill=h110-2003>.52 See Soder, K., ‘Multilateral peace operations: Arica, 2009’ SIPRI Fact Sheet, July 2010, <http://

books.sipri.org/product_ino?c_product_id=408>. 53 United Nations, Security Council, Report o the Secretary-General on Somalia pursuant to

Security Council resolution 1863 (2009), S/2009/210, 16 Apr. 2009, p. 5.54 Ntale, S., ‘Ping: AU peacekeepers in Somalia need help’, CNN, 27 July 2010, <http://edition.cnn.

com/2010/WORLD/arica/07/26/somalia.au.un/>.55 UN Securit y Council Resolution 1744 (note 6).56 The US Government authorized the export by US companies o ‘deense articles and services’

to Uganda valued at $48 million (€34 million) in US fscal years 2004–2008. However, it is not

known how many o these articles were delivered and to what extend they were intended or use

by the Ugandan armed orces. Reports by the Department o State pursuant to Section 655 o the

Foreign Assista nce Act (note 49).57 SIPRI Arms Transers Database (note 25); Holtom, P., ‘Ukrainian exports o small arms and

light weapons, 2004–2007’ SIPRI Background Paper, Oct. 2008, <http://books.sipri.org/product_

ino?c_product _id=369>; and UN Register o Conventional Arms (UNROCA) database (note 20).58 United Nations Register o Conventional Ar ms (UNROCA) databa se (note 20).

59 United Nations, Security Council, Final report o the Group o Experts on the DemocraticRepublic o the Congo, S/2009/603, 23 Nov. 2009, p. 23.



10 p bckgud pp

Seria an an nnon ner o ahine ns ro Alania an Seria

ere elivere to Brni via its territory in 2009.60

At least one ontry has rovie ars seifally or se y Brnian

an Uanan AMISOM ores: the USA ha y late 2009 slie $135

illion (€94 illion) or loistial an eqient sort an re-eloy-

ent trainin or Brnian an Uanan AMISOM ores, inlin

72 arore vehiles.61

Risks of supplying arms to AMISOM troop contributors

Althoh the UN Serity Conil has re the international onity

to sort AMISOM ith ars, several ators st e taen into aont

rearin ars slies to the AMISOM troo ontritors. The Uanan

Governent is enae in an internal onit ith the

Lor’s Resistane Ary reel ro, hile fhtin eteen

the Brnian Governent an several are oosition

ros only ene in 2008. In oth ontries overn-

ent troos have alleely een involve in han rihts

ases.62 Finally, there are ssiions that eaons have

een slie via or ro Brni to non-state ators in the Deorati

Reli o the Cono (DRC).63

Tale 1 shos that EU eer states have in several ases rese the

sly o ilitary eqient to Brni an Uana on a variety o rons.

In late 2009 the Malaysian Governent also enie erission or the

exort o 40 000 seon-han assalt ries to Brni ease o ears that

they ere intene or are ros in the DRC.64

In Jly 2010 Ginea annone that it as aot to ontrite 850 sol-

iers to join the Brnian an Uanan troos rrently eloye ith

AMISOM.65 Ars slies to Ginea intene to sort sh a ontri-

tion ol also e roleati. The Eonoi Conity o West Arian

States (ECOWAS) an the EU iose ars earoes on Ginea in Otoer

2009 in resonse to a eterioration o the olitial sitation that linate

in the illin o over 150 eonstrators y the Ginean ilitary in Sete-

er 2009.66

60 Montenegrin Ministry o Economy, 2009 Annual Report on Foreign Trade in Controlled Goods

(Ministry o Economy: Podgorica, 2010), p. 33.61 United Nations, General Assembly, ‘Committee or Programme and Coordination rearmed

as main subsidiary organ or planning, coordination in text approved by Budget Committee’, Press

Release GA/AB/3928, 5 Nov. 2009.62 Human Rights Watch, ‘Uganda: investigate 2009 Kampala riot killings’, 10 Sep. 2010, <http://

www.hrw.org/news/2010/09/10/uganda-investigate-2009-kampala-riot-killings>; and Human

Rights Watch, ‘Burundi: violence, rights violations mar elections’, 1 July 2010. <http://www.hrw.

org/en/news/2010/07/01/burundi-violence-rights-violations-mar-elections>.63 United Nations (note 59), p. 23.64 Bromley, M. and Holtom, P., ‘Arms transers to the Democratic Republic o the Congo: assess-

ing the system o arms transer notifcations, 2008–10’, SIPRI Background Paper, Oct. 2010, <http//

books.sipri.org/product_ino?c_product_id=415>.65 Heinlein, P., ‘Guinea to bolster AU peace orce in Somalia’, Voice o America, 23 July 2010,

<http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/arica/west/Guinea-to-Bolster-AU-Peace-Force-in-

Somalia-99121519.html>.66 Economic Community o West Arican States (ECOWAS), Extraordina ry Summit o ECOWAS

heads o state and government, Final communiqué, Abuja, 17 Oct. 2009; and Council Common

Position 2009/788/CFSP o 27 Oct. 2009 concerning restrictive measures against the Republic o Guinea, Ofcial Journal o the European Union, L281, 28 Oct. 2009>.

Supplying arms directly to the AU or

AMISOM may be less risky than supplying

arms to the troop-contributing countries



m w d cc m 11

One ossile aroah to avoiin the riss assoiate ith slyin ini-

vial troo-ontritin ontries is to sly ars iretly to the AU or to

AMISOM. Sh an aroah has een se y, aon others, Canaa, hih

has sine 2005 loane 105 arore vehiles to a ool o Arian ontries

seifally or se y the AU Mission in San (AMIS) eaeeein ores

in the Darr reion.67

VII. Conclusions

It is ilt to ontrol the o o ars to a onit reion. When eaons

are slie to sh a reion as art o eorts to ahieve staility an eae

it is har to ensre that it is one in sh a ay as to ree the riss o nin-

tene onseqenes relate to the onit, iversion to other onits or

han rihts ases.

Ars os to Soali non-state ators ontine esite the ars earo,

aleit at lo voles. It is orryin that the international onity too

so lon to at aainst Eritrea—an that inivial ontries ontine to

sly Eritrea ith ars—esite reile alleations that it ha violate

the earo on Soalia.

Althoh there is roa international sort or strenthenin the are

ores o the TFG, the atal sly o ars to the TFG is roleati. In ar-

tilar, EU eer states see to e illin to olster the TFG ith trainin

in ilitary tatis t nillin to sly the eaons these ores nee to

allo the to se their nely aqire sills. A ajor qestion reains over

hether sient eorts have een taen y ontries roviin ilitary

ai to the TFG to irove the serity o TFG ars stos throh roer

arin an other aontaility roeres.

Ethioia’s role in Soalia raises seif isses or ars transers. Ars

slie to Ethioia ol sort its nathorie t so ar nhinere

ilitary ativities in Soalia. Protetin Ethioian territory aainst os-

sile sillover o the Soali onit is a leitiate otive or ars transers

to Ethioia, t the riss that the ars ill e se in internal reression or

ol aravate the tension ith Eritrea ol jstiy restraint on the art o

otential sliers.

Conits an han rihts ases or in the ontries ontritin

troos to AMISOM, an one o these ontries is ssete o involveent

in the illeal sly o ars to another onit. For this reason soe on-

tries, aon the EU eer states, have rese ertain ars slies

to AMISOM ontritors. Nevertheless, AMISOM nees ore ilitary

eqient in orer to arry ot its anate. Contries antin to sort

AMISOM shol onsier hannellin ars slies to the AU or iretly to

AMISOM instea o to the ontritin ontries.

67 Canadian Ministry o Foreign Aairs and International Trade, ‘Canada, supporting Arican

Union peacekeeping in Dar ur: past, present, uture’, May 2010, <http://www.canadainternationa l.gc.ca/sudan-soudan/support-appui.aspx?lang=eng>.



Signalistgatan 9

SE-169 70 Solna, Sweden

Telephone: +46 8 655 97 00

Fax: +46 8 655 97 33

Email: [email protected]

Internet: www.sipri.org

SIPRI is an independent

international institute

dedicated to research intoconfict, armaments, arms

control and disarmament.

Established in 1966, SIPRI

provides data, analysis and

recommendations, based on

open sources, to policymakers,

researchers, media and the

interested public.

GovRIG BoRd

Göran Lennmarker, Chairman

(Sweden)

Dr Dewi Fortuna Anwar

(Indonesia)

Dr Alexei G. Arbatov (Russia)

Ambassador Lakhdar Brahimi

(Algeria)

Jayantha Dhanapala

(Sri Lanka)

Dr Nabil Elaraby (Egypt)

Ambassador Wolgang

Ischinger (Germany)

Proessor Mary Kaldor(United Kingdom)

The Director

dIRoR

Dr Bates Gill (United States)

© SIPRI 2010

oS

I. Introduction 1

II. Background 1

III. Arms supplies to Somali opposition groups 2IV. Arms supplies to Eritrea 4

V. Arms supplies to the Transitional Federal Government 5

VI. Arms supplies to external supporters o the Transitional Federal 7

Government

Ethiopia 7

AMISOM 9

VII. Conclusions 11

Table 1. Denials o licences or arms exports to our Arican countries by 8

European Union members, 2004–2008

p bckgud pp

RS flowS d hoflI I SolIp d. wzm

Bou h uhoR

Pieter d. wezeman (Netherlands) is a Senior Researcher with the SIPRI Arms

Transers Programme. He rejoined SIPRI in 2006, having previously worked at the

institute rom 1994 to 2003. From 2003 to 2006 he was a Senior Analyst or the Dutch

Ministry o Deence in the feld o prolieration o conventional and nuclear weapon

technology.

Arms flows and the conflict in Somalia

Documents

Transcript of Arms flows and the conflict in Somalia