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1

Arizona State Transportation Board

Financial Report

Presentation by: Kristine Ward, CFO June 19, 2020

2

Revenue Report: Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF) • Gas tax – Strong decline month

(-38.1 %), moderate

decline FY20 (-1.5%)

• Diesel tax – Moderate

decline month

(-1.7 %), moderate

growth FY20 (1.0%)

• VLT – Strong decline

month (-23.7 %),

moderate growth

FY20 (1.5 %)

1.3%

-2.6% -1.9% -1.9%

-0.7%-1.6% -1.0% -1.0%

-0.9%

-2.7%-4.8%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

Actual Target Range

Variance from Original Forecast

PresenterPresentation NotesMay Data (April Fuel Activity):May HURF: 26.2% below forecast, $94.0M in revenuesYTD 4.8% below forecast with $1.4B in revenues collectedGas Tax 1.5% below last year and 2.5% below forecast YTDGas: 164.0 million gallons reported in May and 2.7 billion gallons sold YTD (+7.8%YTD)Diesel: 1.0% above last year and 4.0% below forecast YTDRegistration: 0.1% above last year and 2.8% below forecast YTDVLT revenues: 1.5% above last year and 3.8% below forecast YTD Operator license fees: 75.4% below last year and 78.4% below forecast YTD

Context Data:FY2020 HURF forecasted growth rate = 3.2% (FY 2020 FCST= $1,569.4M)FY2020 Forecasted growth rates:Gas = 0.9%Use/Diesel = 4.5%MC = 2.6%VLT = 5.7%Registration = 2.0%Other = 3.8%

Chart1

436474364743647

436784367843678

437094370943709

437394373943739

437704377043770

438004380043800

438314383143831

438624386243862

438914389143891

439224392243922

439524395243952

439834398343983

Actual

Target Range

Lower Target

-1.9%

-0.7%

-1.6%

-1.0%

-1.0%

2.0%

0.013

0.02

-0.01

-0.026

0.02

-0.01

-0.019

0.02

-0.01

-0.019

0.02

-0.01

-0.007

0.02

-0.01

-0.016

0.02

-0.01

-0.01

0.02

-0.01

-0.01

0.02

-0.01

-0.009

0.02

-0.01

-0.027

0.02

-0.01

-0.048

0.02

-0.01

0.02

-0.01

Sheet1

MonthActualTarget RangeLower Target

Jul-191.3%2.0%-1.0%

Aug-19-2.6%2.0%-1.0%

Sep-19-1.9%2.0%-1.0%

Oct-19-1.9%2.0%-1.0%

Nov-19-0.7%2.0%-1.0%

Dec-19-1.6%2.0%-1.0%

Jan-20-1.0%2.0%-1.0%

Feb-20-1.0%2.0%-1.0%

Mar-20-0.9%2.0%-1.0%

Apr-20-2.7%2.0%-1.0%

May-20-4.8%2.0%-1.0%

Jun-202.0%-1.0%

Source: HURF Forecast, Monthly Board Report.

3

Revenue Report: Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF) • Gas tax – Strong decline month

(-38.1 %), moderate

decline FY20 (-1.5%)

• Diesel tax – Moderate

decline month

(-1.7 %), moderate

growth FY20 (1.0%)

• VLT – Strong decline

month (-23.7 %),

moderate growth

FY20 (1.5 %)

Variance from April Re-Forecast

PresenterPresentation NotesMay Data:May HURF: 26.2% below original forecast, 6.7% above revised forecast, $94.0M in revenuesYTD 4.8% below original forecast with $1.4B in revenues collected, 6.7% above revised forecast YTDGas Tax 1.5% below last year and 2.5% below original forecast YTD, 2.4% above revised forecast YTDGas: 164.0 million gallons reported in May and 2.7 billion gallons sold YTD (+7.8%YTD)Diesel: 1.0% above last year and 4.0% below original forecast YTD, 0.8% above revised forecast YTDRegistration: 0.1% above last year and 2.8% below original forecast YTD, 0.9% above revised forecast YTDVLT revenues: 1.5% above last year and 3.8% below original forecast YTD, 4.9% above revised forecast YTDOperator license fees: 75.4% below last year and 78.4% below original forecast YTD, 77.5% below revised forecast YTD

Context Data:FY2020 HURF forecasted growth rate = 3.2% (FY 2020 FCST= $1,569.4M)FY2020 Forecasted growth rates:Gas = 0.9%Use/Diesel = 4.5%MC = 2.6%VLT = 5.7%Registration = 2.0%Other = 3.8%

Chart1

436474364743647

436784367843678

437094370943709

437394373943739

437704377043770

438004380043800

438314383143831

438624386243862

438914389143891

439224392243922

439524395243952

439834398343983

Actual

Target Range

Lower Target

-1.9%

-0.7%

-1.6%

-1.0%

-1.0%

2.0%

0.013

0.02

-0.01

-0.026

0.02

-0.01

-0.019

0.02

-0.01

-0.019

0.02

-0.01

-0.007

0.02

-0.01

-0.016

0.02

-0.01

-0.01

0.02

-0.01

-0.01

0.02

-0.01

0.01

0.02

-0.01

0.02

0.02

-0.01

0.067

0.02

-0.01

0.02

-0.01

Sheet1


Jul-191.3%2.0%-1.0%

Aug-19-2.6%2.0%-1.0%

Sep-19-1.9%2.0%-1.0%

Oct-19-1.9%2.0%-1.0%

Nov-19-0.7%2.0%-1.0%

Dec-19-1.6%2.0%-1.0%

Jan-20-1.0%2.0%-1.0%

Feb-20-1.0%2.0%-1.0%

Mar-201.0%2.0%-1.0%-0.9%

Apr-202.0%2.0%-1.0%-2.7%

May-206.7%2.0%-1.0%

Jun-202.0%-1.0%

Source: HURF Forecast, Monthly Board Report.

4

Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF): Revenue Re-Forecasts vs. Actuals

Revenue in Thousands

RevenueCategory Orig Est Act

Variance from Orig

Est

% Chg from Orig

Est Apr Est

Variance from Apr

Est

% Chg from Apr

EstGasoline Tax $46,044 $28,628 ($17,416) -37.8% $27,626 $1,002 3.6%Use Fuel Tax 17,292 13,960 (3,332) -19.3% 14,698 (738) -5.0%Motor Carrier Fee 2,927 2,847 (80) -2.7% 2,195 652 29.7%Vehicle License Tax 42,100 30,850 (11,250) -26.7% 27,365 3,485 12.7%Registration 13,465 13,685 220 1.6% 11,445 2,240 19.6%Other 5,615 4,050 (1,565) -27.9% 4,773 (723) -15.1%

Total $127,443 $94,020 ($33,423) -26.2% $88,103 $5,918 6.7%

May

PresenterPresentation NotesMay data reflects April activity, the first full month of COVID impactUPDATED MM reviewed 6/11 June Re-Est of May=May Actual so variance is $0May for all 3 orig, aprl, juneSupplier sells fuel in March, file their fuel tax report in April, and funds distributed at HURF close in early May.March fuel numbers reflect February sales.April fuel numbers reflect March sales.Stay at home measures began in latter half of March. Exact date varies: Schools ordered closed on starting on March 16th. March 17th dine-in services suspended at restaurants first in Phoenix and Tucson, and on March 20th for all restaurants in counties in Arizona with confirmed cases of COVID-19. April 1st was the first full day of the Governor’s stay at home Exec Order (https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona/2020/04/01/what-arizona-stay-home-order-looked-like-day-one/5100702002/)March VLT numbers reflect the last half of February and the 1st half of March (pre-COVID)April VLT numbers reflect the last ½ of March and the 1st ½ of April. COVID stay at home measures are in place in this period.

Sheet1

May

RevenueCategoryPrior 3 Yr AvgOrig EstActVariance from Orig Est% Chg from Orig EstApr EstVariance from Apr Est% Chg from Apr Est

Gasoline Tax$45,095$46,044$28,628($17,416)-37.8%$27,626$1,0023.6%

Use Fuel Tax14,82617,29213,960(3,332)-19.3%14,698(738)-5.0%

Motor Carrier Fee38,1262,9272,847(80)-2.7%2,19565229.7%

Vehicle License Tax2,60242,10030,850(11,250)-26.7%27,3653,48512.7%

Registration12,22913,46513,6852201.6%11,4452,24019.6%

Other5,1045,6154,050(1,565)-27.9%4,773(723)-15.1%

Total$117,982$127,443$94,020($33,423)-26.2%$88,103$5,9186.7%

Sheet2

Sheet3

5

Revenue Report: Regional Area Road Fund (RARF)

• Retail sales - Strong

growth YTD (9.3 %)

• Contracting –

Strong growth YTD

(17.9 %)

• Restaurant & Bar –

Moderate growth

YTD (0.2 %)

-0.8%

0.1%0.5% 0.3% 1.1%

1.6% 1.8% 2.2% 1.8%0.5%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

Actual Target Range

Variance from Original Forecast

PresenterPresentation NotesApril Data (March Activity): April actuals 5.3% below same fiscal period last year with $41.2M in revenues and 10.3% below forecastYTD actuals: $414.6M collected and 6.8% growth YTDForecast variance YTD: 0.5% above forecast

Retail Sales – 9.3% over last YTD with $227.5M in revenues and 4.0% above forecast YTDContracting – 17.9% over last YTD with $45.9M in revenues and 0.3% below forecast YTDRestaurant & Bar – 0.2% above last YTD with $44.1M in revenues and 5.3% below forecast YTD

Context data:FY 2020 RARF forecasted growth rate = 6.2% (FY 2020 FCST = $497.7M)FY 2020 Forecasted growth rates:Retail Sales = 5.1%Contracting = 16.8%Utilities = 2.0%Restaurant & Bar = 6.1%Rental of Real Property = 5.7%Rental of Personal Property = 9.0% Other: = -0.5%

Chart1

436474364743647

436784367843678

437094370943709

437394373943739

437704377043770

438004380043800

438314383143831

438624386243862

438914389143891

439224392243922

439524395243952

439834398343983

Actual

Target Range

Lower Target

-0.008

0.02

-0.01

0.001

0.02

-0.01

0.005

0.02

-0.01

0.003

0.02

-0.01

0.011

0.02

-0.01

0.016

0.02

-0.01

0.018

0.02

-0.01

0.022

0.02

-0.01

0.018

0.02

-0.01

0.005

0.02

-0.01

0.02

-0.01

0.02

-0.01

Sheet1


Jul-19-0.8%2.0%-1.0%

Aug-190.1%2.0%-1.0%

Sep-190.5%2.0%-1.0%

Oct-190.3%2.0%-1.0%

Nov-191.1%2.0%-1.0%

Dec-191.6%2.0%-1.0%

Jan-201.8%2.0%-1.0%

Feb-202.2%2.0%-1.0%

Mar-201.8%2.0%-1.0%

Apr-200.5%2.0%-1.0%

May-202.0%-1.0%

Jun-202.0%-1.0%

Source: RARF Forecast, Monthly Board Report.

6

Revenue Report: Regional Area Road Fund (RARF)

• Retail sales - Strong

growth YTD (9.3 %)

• Contracting –

Strong growth YTD

(17.9 %)

• Restaurant & Bar –

Moderate growth

YTD (0.2 %)

-0.8%

0.1%0.5% 0.3% 1.1%

1.6% 1.8% 2.2% 1.8%2.9%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

Actual Target Range

Variance from April Re-Forecast

PresenterPresentation NotesApril Data: April actuals 5.3% below same fiscal period last year with $41.2M in revenues and 10.3% below forecastYTD actuals: $414.6M collected and 6.8% growth YTDForecast variance YTD: 0.5% above forecast

Retail Sales – 9.3% over last YTD with $227.5M in revenues and 4.0% above forecast YTDContracting – 17.9% over last YTD with $45.9M in revenues and 0.3% below forecast YTDRestaurant & Bar – 0.2% above last YTD with $44.1M in revenues and 5.3% below forecast YTD

Context data:FY 2020 RARF forecasted growth rate = 6.2% (FY 2020 FCST = $497.7M)FY 2020 Forecasted growth rates:Retail Sales = 5.1%Contracting = 16.8%Utilities = 2.0%Restaurant & Bar = 6.1%Rental of Real Property = 5.7%Rental of Personal Property = 9.0% Other: = -0.5%

Chart1

436474364743647

436784367843678

437094370943709

437394373943739

437704377043770

438004380043800

438314383143831

438624386243862

438914389143891

439224392243922

439524395243952

439834398343983

Actual

Target Range

Lower Target

-0.008

0.02

-0.01

0.001

0.02

-0.01

0.005

0.02

-0.01

0.003

0.02

-0.01

0.011

0.02

-0.01

0.016

0.02

-0.01

0.018

0.02

-0.01

0.022

0.02

-0.01

0.018

0.02

-0.01

0.029

0.02

-0.01

0.02

-0.01

0.02

-0.01

Sheet1


Jul-19-0.8%2.0%-1.0%

Aug-190.1%2.0%-1.0%

Sep-190.5%2.0%-1.0%

Oct-190.3%2.0%-1.0%

Nov-191.1%2.0%-1.0%

Dec-191.6%2.0%-1.0%

Jan-201.8%2.0%-1.0%

Feb-202.2%2.0%-1.0%

Mar-201.8%2.0%-1.0%

Apr-202.9%2.0%-1.0%

May-202.0%-1.0%

Jun-202.0%-1.0%

Source: RARF Forecast, Monthly Board Report.

7

Regional Area Road Fund (RARF): Revenue Re-Forecasts vs. Actuals

RevenueCategory Orig Est Act

Variance from Orig

Est

% Chg from Orig

EstApr Re-

Est

Variance from Apr

Re-Est

% Chg from Apr

Re-EstRetail Sales $24,543 $24,007 ($536) -2.2% $18,345 $5,662 30.9%Contracting 4,698 4,745 47 1.0% 4,685 60 1.3%Utilities 2,055 1,945 (110) -5.3% 1,952 (7) -0.4%Restaurant & Bar 5,743 3,647 (2,096) -36.5% 2,297 1,350 58.7%Rental of Real Property 5,475 4,204 (1,271) -23.2% 2,190 2,014 92.0%Rental of Personal Property 1,958 1,609 (349) -17.8% 783 826 105.5%Other 1,493 1,068 (425) -28.5% 1,075 (7) -0.6%

Total $45,965 $41,226 ($4,739) -10.3% $31,328 $9,898 31.6%

April

Revenue in Thousands

Sheet1

April

RevenueCategoryPrior 3 Yr AvgOrig EstActVariance from Orig Est% Chg from Orig EstApr Re-EstVariance from Apr Re-Est% Chg from Apr Re-Est

Retail Sales$45,095$24,543$24,007($536)-2.2%$18,345$5,66230.9%

Contracting14,8264,6984,745471.0%4,685601.3%

Utilities38,1262,0551,945(110)-5.3%1,952(7)-0.4%

Restaurant & Bar2,6025,7433,647(2,096)-36.5%2,2971,35058.7%

Rental of Real Property12,2295,4754,204(1,271)-23.2%2,1902,01492.0%

Rental of Personal Property1,9581,609(349)-17.8%783826105.5%

Other5,1041,4931,068(425)-28.5%1,075(7)-0.6%

Total$117,982$45,965$41,226($4,739)-10.3%$31,328$9,89831.6%

Sheet2

Sheet3

8

Additional Updates

• Federal Aid Program

• Debt Financing Program • HURF Capacity

• RARF Capacity

• Cash Management

PresenterPresentation NotesFederal Aid:

Debt Financing Program:HURF Capacity: 4.89x - (MAD = $144.2M as of November 2016; Post HURF 2016 refunding)RARF Capacity: 1.92x (56.2% monies only)– (MAD = $143.7M as of September 2018; Post RARF 2018 issue)Cash management:Yield YTD (through December 2019)= 1.99% or $$22.9M YTD

Context data:The earnings rates on our investments have been steadily declining this fiscal year. Though the overall trend is declining, there was a slight uptick in December for Pool 4. Below are rates from July 2019-January 2020 for each pool.

Pool 2JULY 20192.32AUGUST 20192.21SEPTEMBER 20192.18OCTOBER 20191.97NOVEMBER 20191.93DECEMBER 20191.89JANUARY 20201.84FEBRUARY 20201.75MARCH 20201.50APRIL 20201.17�Pool 3JULY 20192.55AUGUST 20192.41SEPTEMBER 20192.38OCTOBER 20192.14NOVEMBER 20192.00DECEMBER 20191.96�JANUARY 20201.86FEBRUARY 20201.89MARCH 20201.59APRIL 20201.16

Pool 4JULY 20192.42AUGUST 20192.43SEPTEMBER 20192.40OCTOBER 20192.22NOVEMBER 20192.15 DECEMBER 20192.18JANUARY 20202.11FEBRUARY 20202.11MARCH 20201.84APRIL 20201.41

9

Revenue Forecast Process: Composition of the panel Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG), Transportation

Professional City of Phoenix, Economist City of Peoria, prior JLBC, Fiscal Specialist JLBC, Fiscal Specialist Previous State Treasurer’s Office, Financial Professional Office of Economic Opportunity, Economist Previous JLBC & Commerce, Economist The Maguire Company, Economist Vison-Econ, Economist ADOT, prior ASU, Economist ASU, Economist HDR, Economist – Contracted to develop & run forecasting model

for ADOT

PresenterPresentation NotesWe do not release the names of the panelists due to prior issues in the past

10

Short-term Forecast Accuracy: Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF)

Variance from Short-term Forecast

-0.3%

-1.1%

1.0%0.3%

2.6%

1.4%

1.9%

-1.2%

-6.6%

-10.0%

-4.3%

0.0%

-0.5% -0.7%

1.4% 1.6%1.9%

-0.7%

-0.5%

2.0%

-12.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

Percentage Difference betweenActual and Estimated Revenues

Chart1

20000.02-0.01

20010.02-0.01

20020.02-0.01

20030.02-0.01

20040.02-0.01

20050.02-0.01

20060.02-0.01

20070.02-0.01

20080.02-0.01

20090.02-0.01

20100.02-0.01

20110.02-0.01

20120.02-0.01

20130.02-0.01

20140.02-0.01

20150.02-0.01

20160.02-0.01

20170.02-0.01

20180.02-0.01

20190.02-0.01

Percentage Difference between Actual and Estimated Revenues

2% Target

-1% Target

-0.0030321218

-0.0112541949

0.009940623

0.0032100659

0.0257943125

0.0135512995

0.0193865865

-0.0116714927

-0.0664650805

-0.0997960065

-0.0427820829

-0.000354112

-0.0046974858

-0.0071189965

0.0139120216

0.0156137116

0.0193478588

-0.0071715244

-0.004595615

0.0201450113

Sheet1

Hurf

Fiscal YearActualEstimatePercentage Difference between Actual and Estimated Revenues2% Target-1% Target

2000$1,019.599$1,022.700-0.3%2.0%-1%

2001$1,030.965$1,042.700-1.1%2.0%-1%

2002$1,076.395$1,065.8001.0%2.0%-1%

2003$1,111.256$1,107.7000.3%2.0%-1%

2004$1,179.561$1,149.9002.6%2.0%-1%

2005$1,245.553$1,228.9001.4%2.0%-1%

2006$1,331.625$1,306.3001.9%2.0%-1%

2007$1,382.474$1,398.800-1.2%2.0%-1%

2008$1,344.477$1,440.200-6.6%2.0%-1%

2009$1,248.583$1,387.000-10.0%2.0%-1%

2010$1,194.417$1,247.800-4.3%2.0%-1%

2011$1,205.073$1,205.500-0.0%2.0%-1%

2012$1,210.586$1,216.300-0.5%2.0%-1%

2013$1,210.024$1,218.700-0.7%2.0%-1%

2014$1,241.332$1,224.3001.4%2.0%-1%

20151290.438782$1,270.6001.6%2.0%-1%

2016$1,356.752$1,331.0001.9%2.0%-1%

2017$1,405.448$1,415.600-0.7%2.0%-1%

2018$1,455.779$1,462.500-0.5%2.0%-1%

2019$1,520.221$1,490.2012.0%2.0%-1%

*Prior to FY 2018, HURF was estimated and reported net of SLIF. Beginning in FY 2018, gross HURF is estimated and reported

RARF


2000$248.596$246.6480.8%2.0%-1.0%

2001$264.722$264.0030.3%2.0%-1.0%

2002$267.563$279.500-4.3%2.0%-1.0%

2003$268.721$275.600-2.5%2.0%-1.0%

2004$288.600$277.0004.2%2.0%-1.0%

2005$316.806$306.9003.2%2.0%-1.0%

2006$367.637$339.6008.3%2.0%-1.0%

2007$392.452$397.100-1.2%2.0%-1.0%

2008$380.066$408.700-7.0%2.0%-1.0%

2009$328.186$380.500-13.7%2.0%-1.0%

2010$299.024$315.300-5.2%2.0%-1.0%

2011$309.234$301.0002.7%2.0%-1.0%

2012$324.170$321.6000.8%2.0%-1.0%

2013$341.577$340.5000.3%2.0%-1.0%

2014$365.561$362.0001.0%2.0%-1.0%

2015$382.191$378.4001.0%2.0%-1.0%

2016$396.810$401.000-1.0%2.0%-1.0%

2017

2018

2019

*Prior to FY 2018, HURF was reported net of SLIF. Beginning in FY 2018, gross HURF is estimated and reported

Sheet1

In the last 20 years the forecast has been: 2% or more above actual receipts twice -1% or less below actual receipts 5 times


Sheet2

In the last 17 years the forecast has been: 2% or more above actual receipts 4 times -1% or less below actual receipts 7 times


Sheet3

11

Short-term Forecast Accuracy: Regional Area Road Fund (RARF)

Variance from Short-term Forecast

0.8% 0.3%

-4.3%

-2.5%

4.2%3.2%

8.3%

-1.2%

-7.0%

-13.7%

-5.2%

2.7%0.8% 0.3% 1.0% 1.0%

-1.0%

0.6%1.5%

0.5%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Percentage Difference between Actualand Estimated Revenues

Chart1

20000.02-0.01

20010.02-0.01

20020.02-0.01

20030.02-0.01

20040.02-0.01

20050.02-0.01

20060.02-0.01

20070.02-0.01

20080.02-0.01

20090.02-0.01

20100.02-0.01

20110.02-0.01

20120.02-0.01

20130.02-0.01

20140.02-0.01

20150.02-0.01

20160.02-0.01

20170.02-0.01

20180.02-0.01

20190.02-0.01


2% Target

-1% Target

0.0078978503

0.0027251205

-0.0427071807

-0.0249604463

0.0418765343

0.0322761909

0.0825600618

-0.0117058524

-0.0700622584

-0.1374882549

-0.0516220996

0.0273553887

0.0079916573

0.0031619618

0.0098361989

0.0100181712

-0.0104488778

0.0064917817

0.0154031505

0.0047597406

Sheet1

Hurf


2000$1,019.599$1,022.700-0.3%2.0%-1.0%

2001$1,030.965$1,042.700-1.1%2.0%-1.0%

2002$1,076.395$1,065.8001.0%2.0%-1.0%

2003$1,111.256$1,107.7000.3%2.0%-1.0%

2004$1,179.561$1,149.9002.6%2.0%-1.0%

2005$1,245.553$1,228.9001.4%2.0%-1.0%

2006$1,331.625$1,306.3001.9%2.0%-1.0%

2007$1,382.474$1,398.800-1.2%2.0%-1.0%

2008$1,344.477$1,440.200-6.6%2.0%-1.0%

2009$1,248.583$1,387.000-10.0%2.0%-1.0%

2010$1,194.417$1,247.800-4.3%2.0%-1.0%

2011$1,205.073$1,205.500-0.0%2.0%-1.0%

2012$1,210.586$1,216.300-0.5%2.0%-1.0%

2013$1,210.024$1,218.700-0.7%2.0%-1.0%

2014$1,241.332$1,224.3001.4%2.0%-1.0%

20151290.438782$1,270.6001.6%2.0%-1.0%

2016$1,356.752$1,331.0001.9%2.0%-1.0%

2017$1,405.448$1,415.600-0.7%2.0%-1.0%

2018$1,455.779$1,462.500-0.5%2.0%-1.0%

2019$1,520.221$1,490.2012.0%2.0%-1.0%

*Prior to FY 2018, HURF was estimated and reported net of SLIF. Beginning in FY 2018, gross HURF is estimated and reported

RARF


2000$248.596$246.6480.8%2.0%-1.0%

2001$264.722$264.0030.3%2.0%-1.0%

2002$267.563$279.500-4.3%2.0%-1.0%

2003$268.721$275.600-2.5%2.0%-1.0%

2004$288.600$277.0004.2%2.0%-1.0%

2005$316.806$306.9003.2%2.0%-1.0%

2006$367.637$339.6008.3%2.0%-1.0%

2007$392.452$397.100-1.2%2.0%-1.0%

2008$380.066$408.700-7.0%2.0%-1.0%

2009$328.186$380.500-13.7%2.0%-1.0%

2010$299.024$315.300-5.2%2.0%-1.0%

2011$309.234$301.0002.7%2.0%-1.0%

2012$324.170$321.6000.8%2.0%-1.0%

2013$341.577$340.5000.3%2.0%-1.0%

2014$365.561$362.0001.0%2.0%-1.0%

2015$382.191$378.4001.0%2.0%-1.0%

2016$396.810$401.000-1.0%2.0%-1.0%

2017$414.071$411.4000.6%2.0%-1.0%

2018$438.654$432.0001.5%2.0%-1.0%

2019$468.620$466.4000.5%2.0%-1.0%

*Prior to FY 2018, HURF was reported net of SLIF. Beginning in FY 2018, gross HURF is estimated and reported

Sheet1

In the last 20 years the forecast has been: 2% or more above actual receipts twice -1% or less below actual receipts 5 times


Sheet2

In the last 20 years the forecast has been: 2% or more above actual receipts 4 times -1% or less below actual receipts 7 times


Sheet3

12

Long-term Forecast Accuracy: Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF)

2009Panel

2010Panel

2011Panel

2012Panel

2013Panel

2014Panel

2015Panel

2016Panel

2017Panel

2018Panel

Variance -11.1% -2.9% 1.2% 2.4% 4.9% 4.2% 3.1% -0.8% 0.2% 2.0%5% Below Forecast 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%5% Above Forecast -5.0% -5.0% -5.0% -5.0% -5.0% -5.0% -5.0% -5.0% -5.0% -5.0%FY 2019 Forecast ($ in Millions) $1,711 $1,565 $1,503 $1,484 $1,449 $1,459 $1,475 $1,533 $1,517 $1,490FY 2019 Actual ($ in Millions) $1,520 $1,520 $1,520 $1,520 $1,520 $1,520 $1,520 $1,520 $1,520 $1,520

-11.1%

-2.9% 1.2%2.4%

4.9%

4.2%3.1% -0.8%

0.2%2.0%

-14.0%

-12.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

FY2019 Variance from Long-term Forecast

Chart1

2009 Panel2009 Panel2009 Panel2009 Panel2009 Panel










Variance

5% Below Forecast

5% Above Forecast

FY 2019 Forecast ($ in Millions)

FY 2019 Actual ($ in Millions)

-0.111

0.05

-0.05

1710.8

1520.22111553

-0.029

0.05

-0.05

1565.1

1520.22111553

0.012

0.05

-0.05

1502.9

1520.22111553

0.024

0.05

-0.05

1484

1520.22111553

0.049

0.05

-0.05

1448.9

1520.22111553

0.042

0.05

-0.05

1459.4

1520.22111553

0.031

0.05

-0.05

1474.7

1520.22111553

-0.008

0.05

-0.05

1532.8

1520.22111553

0.002

0.05

-0.05

1517.4

1520.22111553

0.02

0.05

-0.05

1490.2

1520.22111553

Sheet1

RAP PanelVariance5% Below Forecast5% Above ForecastFY 2019 Forecast ($ in Millions)FY 2019 Actual ($ in Millions)

2009 Panel-11.1%5.0%-5.0%$ 1,711$ 1,520

2010 Panel-2.9%5.0%-5.0%$ 1,565$ 1,520

2011 Panel1.2%5.0%-5.0%$ 1,503$ 1,520

2012 Panel2.4%5.0%-5.0%$ 1,484$ 1,520

2013 Panel4.9%5.0%-5.0%$ 1,449$ 1,520

2014 Panel4.2%5.0%-5.0%$ 1,459$ 1,520

2015 Panel3.1%5.0%-5.0%$ 1,475$ 1,520

2016 Panel-0.8%5.0%-5.0%$ 1,533$ 1,520

2017 Panel0.2%5.0%-5.0%$ 1,517$ 1,520

2018 Panel2.0%5.0%-5.0%$ 1,490$ 1,520

Source: HURF Performance Measure, Variance from the Long-term Forecasts

13

Long-term Forecast Accuracy: Regional Area Road Fund (RARF)

2009Panel

2010Panel

2011Panel

2012Panel

2013Panel

2014Panel

2015Panel

2016Panel

2017Panel

2018Panel

Variance -26.0% -2.2% -0.3% 0.9% -0.1% 1.9% -1.7% 1.6% 2.6% 0.5%5% Below Forecast 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%5% Above Forecast -5.0% -5.0% -5.0% -5.0% -5.0% -5.0% -5.0% -5.0% -5.0% -5.0%FY 2019 Forecast ($ in Millions) $633.1 $479.4 $470.2 $464.3 $469.3 $460.1 $476.8 $461.1 $456.6 $466.4FY 2019 Actual ($ in Millions) $468.6 $468.6 $468.6 $468.6 $468.6 $468.6 $468.6 $468.6 $468.6 $468.6

-26.0%

-2.2% -0.3%

0.9%

-0.1%

1.9%-1.7%

1.6% 2.6% 0.5%

-35.0%

-30.0%

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%FY 2019 Variance from Long-term Forecast

Chart1











Variance

5% Below Forecast

5% Above Forecast

FY 2019 Forecast ($ in Millions)

FY 2019 Actual ($ in Millions)

-0.26

0.05

-0.05

633.1

468.6199426

-0.022

0.05

-0.05

479.4

468.6199426

-0.003

0.05

-0.05

470.2

468.6199426

0.009

0.05

-0.05

464.3

468.6199426

-0.001

0.05

-0.05

469.3

468.6199426

0.019

0.05

-0.05

460.1

468.6199426

-0.017

0.05

-0.05

476.7886151

468.6199426

0.016

0.05

-0.05

461.1

468.6199426

0.026

0.05

-0.05

456.6

468.6199426

0.005

0.05

-0.05

466.4

468.6199426

Sheet1

RAP PanelVariance5% Below Forecast5% Above ForecastFY 2019 Forecast ($ in Millions)FY 2019 Actual ($ in Millions)

2009 Panel-26.0%5.0%-5.0%$ 633.1$ 468.6

2010 Panel-2.2%5.0%-5.0%$ 479.4$ 468.6

2011 Panel-0.3%5.0%-5.0%$ 470.2$ 468.6

2012 Panel0.9%5.0%-5.0%$ 464.3$ 468.6

2013 Panel-0.1%5.0%-5.0%$ 469.3$ 468.6

2014 Panel1.9%5.0%-5.0%$ 460.1$ 468.6

2015 Panel-1.7%5.0%-5.0%$ 476.8$ 468.6

2016 Panel1.6%5.0%-5.0%$ 461.1$ 468.6

2017 Panel2.6%5.0%-5.0%$ 456.6$ 468.6

2018 Panel0.5%5.0%-5.0%$ 466.4$ 468.6

Source: RARF Performance Measure, Variance from the Long-term Forecasts

14

Forecast Process: Standard Schedule vs. Condensed & Accelerated Schedule

Task Standard Schedule Condensed/Accelerated ScheduleFY 2021 Interim Forecast July 14 August 15RAP panel August 5 August 5RAP results (HURF) August 26 August 19RAP results (RARF) August 26 August 26Finalize forcast (HURF) September 18 - September 25 August 21 - August 28Planner Development September 28 - October 31 August 31 - September 4MPD to develop prgm & RAAC August 15 - December 31 September 7 - September 11Present to State Transportation Board January 28 September 18

PresenterPresentation NotesThe first task is being done later to give us more data before we do the HURF FY 21 interim forecast. This then extremely condenses the time available for all the activity that occurs after selecting a FY 21 forecast (taking the annual fcst and turning it into monthly for use in the cash flows and for use in the board reports to compare the actuals against the forecast, putting into the colorful sheet, etc)

Sheet1

TaskNormal ScheduleAltered Schedule

FY 2021 Interim Forecast 7/14/20August 15

RAP panel8/5/208/5/20

RAP results (HURF)8/26/208/19/20

RAP results (RARF)8/26/208/26/20

finalize forcast (HURF)9/18/2020 - 9/25/20208/21/2020 -8/28/2020

Planner Development9/28/2020 - 10/31/20208/31/2020 - 9/4/2020

MPD to develop prgm & RAAC8/15/2020 - 12/31/20209/7/2020 - 9/11/2020

Present to State Transportation Board1/28/219/18/20

TaskStandard ScheduleCondensed/Accelerated Schedule

FY 2021 Interim Forecast July 14August 15

RAP panelAugust 5August 5

RAP results (HURF)August 26August 19

RAP results (RARF)August 26August 26

Finalize forcast (HURF)September 18 - September 25August 21 - August 28

Planner DevelopmentSeptember 28 - October 31August 31 - September 4

MPD to develop prgm & RAACAugust 15 - December 31September 7 - September 11

Present to State Transportation BoardJanuary 28September 18

Sheet2

Sheet3

What do we project is the longer-term impact of the COVID-19 virus on the Highway Account?

• When will the Highway Account reach a shortfall (continued)?

– Second, FHWA has run potential scenarios to estimate the timing of the shortfall.

o These potential scenarios start with a 40% reduction in expected baseline revenue for May 2020.

o Then a gradual increase in revenue until pre-COVID-19, baseline (normal) levels are reached.

Scenario #1 assumes a gradual return to normal revenue by October 2020.

Scenario #2 assumes a gradual return to normal revenue by January 2021.

Scenario #3 assumes a gradual return to normal revenue by April 2021.

– All three scenarios project that the Highway Account will reach a critical point in Spring 2021 and a shortfall in Summer 2021.

15

PresenterPresentation NotesThe scenarios illustrated in the graph provide an overview of the anticipated shortfall in the Highway Account of the Highway Trust Fund, based on actual receipts and outlays through May 15, 2020. All scenarios are built upon an assumption that the receipts in the Highway Account will eventually return to pre-covid 19 levels.

What is the longer-term impact of the COVID-19 virus on the Highway Account?

16

• When will the Highway Account reach a critical point?

17

Questions

Arizona State Transportation Board��Financial ReportSlide Number 2Slide Number 3Slide Number 4Slide Number 5Slide Number 6Slide Number 7Slide Number 8Slide Number 9Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13Slide Number 14What do we project is the longer-term impact of the COVID-19 virus on the Highway Account?What is the longer-term impact of the COVID-19 virus�on the Highway Account?Slide Number 17

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