ARIES- Pathways, April 23-2009, Madison, WI Page 1 L. Waganer Consultant for The Boeing Company...

ARIES- Pathways, April 23-2009, Madison, WI

L. WaganerConsultant for The Boeing Company

ARIES-Pathways Project Meeting 23-24 April 2009

University of Wisconsin, Madison

Completion of Cost Account Documentation


Cost Account Status Documented ARIES Cost Accounts are shown below:

Accounts 20, Land and Land Rights Previously Reported

Accounts 21, Structures and Site Facilities Previously Reported

• Partially Acct 22, Power Core Plant EquipmentAcct 22.01, Fusion Energy Capture and Conversion (FWB, shielding) Previously Reported

• Acct 22.02, Plasma Confinement (Being developed by Dragojlovic/Bromberg/Kessel)

• Acct 22.03, Plasma Formation and Sustainment TK Mau responsible Acct 22.04, Vacuum, Power Core Previously Reported

Acct 22.05 Primary Structure and Support, Power Core Previously Reported

•Acct 22.06 – 13 Power Supplies, Main HT&T, Cryo, Rad Matls, Fuel Handl, Maint, I&C, and Other Plant Equipment Reported this Meeting

• Account 23 Turbine Plant Equipment Reported this Meeting

• Account 24 Electric Plant Equipment Reported this Meeting

• Account 25 Heat Rejection Equipment Reported this Meeting

• Account 26 Misc Plant Equipment Reported this Meeting

• Account 27 Special Materials Reported this Meeting

Accounts 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98 Previously Reported


Cost Account ManagersNo. Account CAM20 Land and Land Rights Waganer21 Structures and Site Facilities Waganer22 Power Core Plant Equipment 22.01 Fusion Energy Capture and Conversion 22.01.01 First Wall and Blanket Malang 22.01.02 Second Blanket Malang 22.01.03 Divertor Assenbly Raffray 22.01.04 High Temperature Shielding El-Guebaly 22.01.05 Low Temperature Shielding El-Guebaly 22.01.06 Penetration Shielding El-Guebaly 22.02 Plasma Confinement 22.02.01 Toroidal Field Coils (TBD) 22.02.02 Poloidal Field Coils (TBD) 22.02.03 Feedback Coils Kessel 22.03 Plasma Formation and Sustainment Mau 22.04 Vacuum, Plasma Core (equipment) Najmabadi 22.05 Primary Structure and Support Wang 22.06 Power Supplies, Switching and Energy Storage Cadwallader 22.07 Main Heat Transfer and Transport Raffray 22.08 Cryogenic Cooling, Magnets Bromberg 22.09 Radioactive Materials Treatment and Management El-Guebaly 22.10 Fuel Handling and Storage Steiner 22.11 Maintenance Equipment Waganer 22.12 Instrumentation and Control Weaver 22.13 Other Plant Equipment Waganer23 Turbine Plant Equipment Schultz24 Electric Plant Equipment Schultz25 Miscellaneous Plant Equipment Waganer26 Heat Rejection Equipment Waganer27 Special Materials Waganer


SupportI have contacted Ron Miller several times to help understand the ARIES costing algorithms and he has provided a lot of data and understanding.

TK Mau said that he will work on the Plasma Confinement accounts to define the coils and power supply algorithms.

Farrokh Najmabadi offered to define requirements for the vacuum pumping system.

Ken Schultz is having someone look into the cost of Turbine Plant Equipment.


Comment•Researching the cost databases and reports for prior fusion conceptual designs back to 1980 has been very time consuming and challenging

•Analyzing using common cost basis requires normalizing the cost estimates using the Gross Domestic Product Price Deflators for each year.

•LSA factors are applied for some accounts and some studies

•Definitions of cost accounts evolve and change over time

•Documentation is spotty, at best

•Not all costs are reported and some are hidden

•Not all dependant parameters are provided or documented

•Quite a few calculational and reporting errors were found

•ASC code internally reformats the algorithm to a linear format limiting traceability


Assessment of ARIES Costing Estimating Process

Most presentations start with an Objective, then Details, followed by a Conclusion or Summary

Objective: Establish a set of Costing Algorithms that are reasonably correct and consistent with prior studies

Details: Details of basis and assessment provide

Conclusion: Cannot develop algorithms that accurately predict fusion systems costs – Best we can hope for are algorithms that show right trends, in the ballpark, and are applied consistently. Anomalies abound in the prior study cost databases.


Main Heat Transfer and Transport Costs,

Account 22.06


Main Heat Transfer and Transport Cost Definition

This account includes all the heat transfer piping, fluid circulation subsystem, intermediate heat exchangers, steam generators/ piping (if design is a Rankine cycle), pressurizing or cover gas subsystem, and in-systems instrumentation and metering.

This system interfaces between the high-temperature heat generating components in the power core elements and the turbine control and isolation valves (supply side) and the feed-water heating piping (return side). This is in agreement with the Starfire and Gen-IV definition.

22.06 Main Heat Transfer and Transport If a dual coolant blanket is used, both helium and liquid primary systems will be used

22.06.01 Primary (water or liquid metals) Heat Transfer Loop (Servicing first wall, blanket, and HT shield)

Pumps and Motor DrivesPipingHeat Exchangers, Steam Generators, Superheaters, ReheatersTanks (Dump, Makeup, Clean-up ... )Coolant Cleanup SystemPressurizing EquipmentThermal Insulation for Piping, and EquipmentTritium Extraction interfacing equipment

22.06.02 Primary (Helium) Heat Transfer Loop (Servicing first wall, blanket, and HT shield) (if used)

Pumps and Motor DrivesPipingHeat Exchangers, Steam Generators, Superheaters, ReheatersTanks (Dump, Makeup, Clean‑up ... )Coolant Cleanup SystemPressurizing EquipmentThermal Insulation for Piping, and EquipmentTritium Extraction interfacing equipment

22.06.03 Limiter or Divertor Primary Heat Transfer Loop (May tie into same IHX, SG) Pumps and Motor DrivesPipingHeat Exchangers, Steam Generators, Superheaters, ReheatersTanks (Dump, Makeup, Clean-up ... )Coolant Cleanup SystemPressurizing EquipmentThermal Insulation for Piping, and EquipmentTritium Extraction interfacing equipment

22.06.04 Intermediate Heat Transfer Loop Pumps and Motor DrivesPipingHeat Exchangers, Steam Generators, Superheaters, ReheatersTanks (Dump, Makeup, Clean-up ... )Coolant Cleanup SystemPressurizing EquipmentThermal Insulation for Piping, and EquipmentTritium Extraction interfacing equipment


Heat Transfer and Transport Cost Algorithms

Comparison of Heat Transfer and Transport Costs

$0.00

$100.00

$200.00

$300.00

$400.00

$500.00

$600.00

1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500

Total Thermal Power, MW

Co

st, M

(20

08$)

He or LiPb Primary

1/2 LiPb ,1/2 He Primary

Li Prim + Na Intm

H2O or OC

Curves were ARIES II-IV algorithms by Ron Miller

• Basis is Titan (Pth 3500MW scaled to 0.55 exponent)

• Basis updated in 2008 for ARIES-AT (1.2% to 21.3% increase)

• Cost basis is LSA of 4• LSA factors are 0.9 or 0.6 with

He or LM and IHX (LSA= 1), or 1.0 (LSA = 2,3,4)

• He & LiPb have same cost algorithm; ditto for OC & H2O

• Li needs Na intermediate loop (ARIES-I said Li?), Not on SPPS

• Not sure what Secondary coolant refers to?

• Dual coolant (He + LiPb) maximizes at 50/50) and is most expensive system; systems usually do not split equally, so this is a limiting case

Cost = EF x A x (Pth/3500)^0.55

EF is escalation factor from 1992$ A = $265.98 for Primary Li, LiPb, He A = $75.95 Primary OC, H2O A = $49.24 Intermediate coolant A = $80.1 Secondary coolant ?

LSA = 4 shownARIES-AT algorithms


Main Heat Transfer and Transport Cost Database

These data are with Ron Miller’s updated ARIES-AT cost algorithms are 1.2% higher than the ARIES II-IV costing algorithms

Color coding indicates type of heat transfer fluids employed

Chronological

Grouped and Ordered

Primary (H2O or OC) and Steam

Primary (He) and Steam or Primary (LiPb) and He

Primary (Li), Intermediate (Na), and Steam

Primary (LiPb and He) and Steam or He

Brayton Cycle

2008$ 2008$Reported Calculated

Fusion Plant Design Coolant Pth $ MHTT $ MHTT Compared to Algorithm

ARIES-III OC 2997 $97.22 $98.83 OK, Escal ChangeEBTR H2O 3726 $145.86 $111.40 30% high (RM Parsons est)

Starfire H2O 3800 $159.64 $112.61 42% high (RM Parsons est)ARIES-AT LiPb 1982 $178.52 $165.44 8% highARIES-I He 2544 $371.48 $316.28 17% high

ARIES-IV He 2590 $166.23 $191.65 13% lowARIES-I' He 2870 $178.28 $202.78 12% low

ARIES-RS Li 2619 $366.01 $380.83 OK, Escal ChangeARIES-II Li 2630 $328.64 $380.99 14% low

ARIES-CS LiPb & He 2920 $530.98 $474.28 12% highProm-L Pb & He 3071 $287.91 $475.59 40% low (Ebasco est)

ARIES-ST LiPb & He 3373 $507.01 $502.64 2% high

ARIES-AT algorithms

ARIES-AT algorithms

Summary of MHTT data for plotting ARIES-AT algorithms

2008$ 2008$Reported Calculated

Fusion Plant Design Coolant Pth $ MHTT $ MHTT Compared to Algorithm

Starfire H2O 3800 $159.64 $112.61 42% high (RM Parsons est)EBTR H2O 3726 $145.86 $111.40 30% high (RM Parsons est)

Prom-L Pb & He 3071 $287.91 $475.59 40% low (Ebasco est + 75% learning)ARIES-I He 2544 $371.48 $316.28 17% highARIES-I' He 2870 $178.28 $202.78 12% lowARIES-II Li 2630 $328.64 $380.99 14% lowARIES-III OC 2997 $97.22 $98.83 OK, Escal ChangeARIES-IV He 2590 $166.23 $191.65 13% lowARIES-RS Li 2618.60 $366.01 $380.83 OK, Escal ChangeARIES-AT LiPb 1982.40 $178.52 $165.44 8% highARIES-ST LiPb & He 3373.10 $507.01 $502.64 2% highARIES-CS LiPb & He 2920.00 $530.98 $474.28 12% high


Pressurized Water and OC HTT Cost Comparisons

1. Starfire and EBTR are R.M. Parsons estimates and are higher than algorithm than predicted. They were the most detailed estimates, but the oldest.

2. There is no Organic Coolant cost documentation in ARIES-III. It is likely the cost algorithm and the reported cost were the same.

3. If we feel we need to refine this algorithm, might be able to get data from fission PWR databases


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1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500


Co

st, M

(20

08$)

He or LiPb Primary


Li Prim + Na Intm

H2O or OC

ARIES-III (OC)

Starfire (H2O)

EBTR (H2O)


Helium or LiPb Primary Coolant HTT Typical Schematic

This is Figure 9.4-1, Schematic flow diagram of ARIES-I of power cycle with steam generator, reheater and superheater, Ref ARIES-I Final Report. Notice this only includes the helium and steam loops. This would be a fairly typical power flow diagram with no intermediate loop.

The exceptions are ARIES-II and ARIES-RS, which have intermediate loops. Also the Brayton cycles of ARIES-AT, ST and CS.

Helium Steam


Helium or LiPb Primary Coolant HTT Cost Comparisons

1. ARIES-I HTT cost is 17% higher than predicted.

• This data predates the existence of the algorithm

• Final Report said there was no intermediate coolant loop, just He and steam

• Final report cost showed both an intermediate loop ($77.7M) and a secondary loop ($8K) (in 88$) ; Likely this is an error

2. ARIES -I’ & -IV reported costs are 12-13% low and –AT is 8% high with 0.6 LSA factor used

• Footnote in II-IV Sys Studies Rpt says to use 0.6 factor for LSA=1 case with LM, He, or double walled HX.

3. I do not think it appropriate to use 0.6 factor as it will not be a realized cost reduction.


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1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500


Co

st, M

(20

08$)

He or LiPb Primary


Li Prim + Na Intm

H2O or OC

ARIES-I' (He)

ARIES-IV (He)ARIES-AT (LiPb)

ARIES-I (He) LSA = 2,3,4, factor = 1.0

LSA = 1, factor = 0.6


Li Primary and Na Intermediate Coolant HTT Cost Comparisons

1. Both ARIES –II and –RS used lithium as the primary coolant plus an intermediate coolant loop to separate Li from steam (but not SPPS)

• -II said it used Li in intermediate loop to but it might have been Na

• -RS used Na in intermediate loop

2. ARIES-RS was well predicted with the 4% difference probably being the escalation factor error

3. ARIES-II reported cost is less than predicted, due to updated algorithm coefficient

4. Therefore, Li Primary + Na Intermediate loop algorithm seems appropriate


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$600.00

1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500


Co

st, M

(20

08$)

He or LiPb Primary


Li Prim + Na Intm

H2O or OC

ARIES-II (Li + Na?)

ARIES-RS (Li + Na)


Dual Coolant (LiPb and He) HTT Cost Comparisons

1. It is thought that dual coolant systems incur a cost penalty because the coolant flow is split and they cannot benefit from size scaling

• A 50/50 split would be ~36% more costly than one system

2. Prometheus had dual coolant system with Pb and He. Ebasco made a detailed cost estimate of the heat transport system, but the escalated cost is 40% below the algorithm prediction

3. ARIES-ST is right on, whereas – CS is 12% high

4. Not sure of correlation


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1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500


Co

st, M

(20

08$)

He or LiPb Primary


Li Prim + Na Intm

H2O or OC

Prom-L (Pb& He)

ARIES-CS (LiPb & He)

ARIES-ST (LiPb & He)


Complete Data Set of Heat Transfer and Transport Costs


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$500.00

$600.00

1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500


Co

st, M

(20

08$)

He or LiPb Primary


Li Prim + Na Intm

H2O or OC

ARIES-III (OC)

ARIES-I' (He)

ARIES-IV (He)Starfire (H2O)

EBTR (H2O)ARIES-AT (LiPb)

Prom-L (Pb& He)

ARIES-II (Li + Na?)

ARIES-RS (Li + Na)ARIES-I (He)



Shown for Reference only

ARIES-AT algorithms


Heat Transfer and Transport Cost Summary

Should consistently use algorithms to estimate and scale HTT System costs

Basis (Titan @ 0.55 exponent) is nebulous but generally reasonable - Gen IV uses these exponents:

Steam turbines 0.50Gas turbines 0.50Gas Compressor 0.82Cent. Pumps 0.41Tanks 0.63Heat Exchanger 0.65

Prior studies costs generally do not correlate with existing algorithms,

but cannot go back and change (see next page)

Recommend continue to use Ron Miller’s ARIES-AT algorithms as amended, reported at subaccount levels

If Divertor is a separate loop, use appropriate subaccount

If Intermediate loop is required, make sure it is estimated and included


Suspected Errors in Reported Costs Starfire, EBTR: Contractor estimated costs seem high or algorithm is low

Prometheus: Contractor estimated costs seem low for a dual coolant system

ARIES-I: Report says no intermediate loop, yet costs are reported for intermediate and secondary loops. Higher than predicted cost may be due to incorrect inclusion of intermediate loop ($77M in 88$)

ARIES-I’, -IV, & -AT: Costs vary on both sides of algorithm (with 60% scaling). Should look at code to see if HTT cost algorithms are correct

ARIES-II: Used and costed a Na intermediate loop and prediction is correct per prior algorithm, but the new algorithm increased by 23%, which introduces the discrepancy. Need to check the new algorithm coefficient.

ARIES-CS: Estimate for a dual coolant system was about 12% high. Need to recheck the system code for this discrepancy.

Right on the Algorithm Predictions

ARIES-III (OC, Rankine)

ARIES-RS (Li, Na (Intermediate), Rankine)

ARIES-ST (LiPb + He, Brayton)


Radioactive Materials Treatment and Handling Equipment Costs

Account 22.07


Radioactive Materials Treatment and Handling Equipment Costs

This account includes all the equipment to treat and manage, off-line, all the produced radioactive materials. This system would accept the radioactive materials processed in the Hot Cell. This system will also accept the impurities and difficult-to-process materials from the Fuel Handling and Storage system. This would include all the liquid, gaseous, and solid materials produced or processed by the entire plant. This system will prepare the radioactive materials to be released, cleared, recycled, or disposed to the proper off-site facilities. It is not the intent to accomplish intensive processing on-site. Efficiently recovered tritium or deuterium will be returned to the Fuel Handling and Storage system.

The function and content in the Radioactive Materials Treatment and Handling Equipment account is not well known at this time. The present functional definition is shown at the left, but materials handling interfaces may change and equipment functionality will likely significantly be modified and improved over the next few decades.

The recommended LSA factors for all levels are 0.85 (LSA1) and 0.94 (LSA 2).

Three very similar costing algorithms have been used to estimate this system. However they probably significantly underestimate the real cost of this system.

22.07 Radioactive Materials Treatment and Management (off-line)22.07.01 Liquid Materials Processing Equipment (including final detritiation)22.07.02 Gaseous Materials Processing Equipment (including final detritiation)22.07.03 Solid Materials Processing Equipment (including detrititation)


Radioactive Materials Treatment and Handling Equipment Cost Database

The three algorithms are linear functions of Gross Thermal Power, differing only by the leading coefficient. They were probably based originally on Starfire. Suggest retaining current scaling algorithm but tripling the coefficient to bring the system cost to the $15M or $25M range.

Summary of data for plotting Rad Matls Trtmt & HndlgARIES-I ARIES-II,-IV ARIES-AT

2008$ 2008$ 2008$ 2008$ Using Updated Algorithms Reported Calculated Calculated Calculated

Fusion Plant Design Pth $ RMR&H $ RMR&H $ RMR&H $ RMR&H LSA Factor

Starfire 4000 $11.09 $11.05 $11.11 $11.85 NAEBTR 4028 $11.20 $11.13 $11.19 $11.93 NA

Prom-L 3264 $8.23 $9.02 $9.07 $9.67 NAARIES-I 2544 $7.03 $7.03 $7.07 $7.54 NAARIES-I' 2870 $0.00 $7.93 $7.97 $8.50 0.85ARIES-II 2570 $0.00 $7.10 $7.14 $7.61 0.94ARIES-III' 2970 $0.00 $8.21 $8.25 $8.80 0.94ARIES-IV 2530 $0.00 $6.99 $7.03 $7.49 0.85ARIES-RS 2619 $0.00 $7.24 $7.27 $7.76 0.94ARIES-AT 1982 $0.00 $5.48 $5.51 $5.87 0.85ARIES-ST 3373 $0.00 $9.32 $9.37 $9.99 0.94AFIES-CS 2916 $7.44 $8.06 $8.10 $8.64 0.94


Fuel Handling and Storage Equipment Costs

Account 22.08


Fuel Handling and Storage Equipment Costs

This account includes on-line processing for the extraction, recovery, purification, preparation, and storage of the fuel elements. Fuel injection is handled in a separate account (22.03.04). The sources of the liquids and gases for processing are the chamber gases, purge and cover gases, primary and intermediate coolant streams, all tritium-bearing liquid and gas streams, and the atmospheric detritiation systems in the Reactor, Hot Cell and Fuel and Handling Storage Buildings. This system is also responsible for maintaining safe levels of tritium in all reactor and heat transfer fluid streams and in the atmospheres in the detritiated buildings, for both normal and emergency conditions. ITER considers this to be the Tritium Plant.

The function and content in the Fuel Handling and Storage Equipment account is well known from several existing and under-construction facilities. Some cost escalation will occur due to higher reliability requirements for power plant applications, but learning curve effects for 10th of a kind will tend to compensate.

The recommended LSA factors for all accounts are 0.85 (LSA1) and 0.94 (LSA 2).

22.08 Fuel Handling and Storage (on-line)22.08.01 Chamber Exhaust Gas Handling and Processing Equipment22.08.02 Purge and Cover Gas Handling Processing Equipment22.08.03 Primary Coolant Stream Handling and Processing Equipment (including on-line adjustment of Li enrichment)22.08.04 Other Liquid and Gaseous Coolant Stream Handling and Processing Equipment22.08.05 Isotope Separation and Fuel Purification Equipment22.08.06 Tritium, Deuterium, and DT Storage Equipment22.08.07 Atmospheric Tritium Recovery Equipment (Power Core, Hot Cell, Fuel Handling Buildings)


Fuel Handling and Storage Equipment Cost Algorithm Comparison

Designs completed by different groups defined the subaccounts differently, so comparisons are difficult. Starfire and EBTR subsystem estimates were based on Mound Facility and TSTA. Prometheus is probably not especially relevant as it is an IFE fuel cycle.

ARIES always used algorithms (constants or functions of mass or volume flow rates) for all designs, but did not report Fuel System costs from ARIES-I’ through ARIES-ST. Only ARIES-I and –CS were reported.

The equation for Blanket recovery and handling was never provided, but reported values were identical to Water Detritiation. Notice the repeated use or reporting of $5.892 in Pellet Injectors, Fuel Storage, Water Detritiation, and Blanket Detritiation. Note that 22.5.2 did not use provided algorithm, instead used the $5.892 as a constant value. Thus, algorithms in code are messed up.

The cost algorithms do not seem to reflect reality. Use of constant values do not help compare designs of different capacities. Flow rates may be correct, but are difficult to find. Suggest scaling to fusion power for fuel related accounts and building volume for Atmospheric Tritium Recovery account. Use next slide for cost data.

Subsytem cost in 1992$ARIES -I

22.5.1 Pellet Injectors = $5.892M times two injectors22.5.2 Fuel Processing Subsystem = $0.7943M x (mass/day)^0.7 (mass of what constitutent?)22,5,3 Fuel Storage = $5.892M (as a constant value)22.5.4 Atmospheric Tritium Recovery = $0.3177M x (m^3/hr)^0.7 (total volume flow rate?)22.5.5 Water Detritiation Subsystem = $7.943M (as a constant value) (reported value was $5.892M)22.5.6 Blanket Detritiiation Subsystem No algorithm provided, but reported value was $5.892M22.5.7 Other No algorithm provided, no cost reported


Fuel Handling and Storage Equipment Cost Database Comparison

As noted previously, Starfire and EBTR were based on experimental facilities, but their database is very dated. ITER is included to reflect a current experiment (1989$) reported in Snowmass, so this may also be a dated estimate.

The ARIES data looks very low for all subsystems (compared to ITER and Starfire)

ITER is the only one reporting a Chamber Exhaust Handling and Processing Cost

ARIES purge and cover gas handling and processing seems very low

ITER’s primary (water) coolant stream processing is three times that of ARIES

ITER’s Purification and Isotope Separation seems low compared to Starfire/EBTR data

ITER’s Storage and ATR are significantly higher

See next page for more discussion

Provided for Fueling Reference

Summary of data for Fuel Cycle Handling and StorageReported costs in 2008$

Starfire EBTR ARIES-I ARIES-CS ITERFusion Plant Design $ FCH&S $ FCH&S $ FCH&S $ FCH&S $ FCH&S

22.08 Fuel Handlg & Stor (w/o injection) $86.319 $109.675 $69.806 $67.276 $121.866

22.08.01 Chmbr Exhaust Gas H&P $20.259

22.08.02 Purge & Cover Gas H&P $8.541 $7.904 22.08.03 Prim Clnt Stream H&P $8.541 $7.904 $22.285

22.08.04 Other Liq & Gas Stream H&P 22.08.05 Purification and Isotope Separation $21.135 $48.310 $20.635 $18.554 $9.662 22.08.06 Trit, Deut, and DT Storage $4.576 $4.667 $8.541 $7.904 $22.597

22.08.07 Atmospheric Tritium Recovery $48.070 $36.632 $3.937 $3.750 $47.063

22.03.04 Plasma Fueling & Cnstnt Control $3.239 $4.667 $17.082 $15.807 $16.363

$12.538 $20.066


Fuel Handling and Storage Equipment Cost Database Comparison

Comparative System Costs for ARIES-AT in 2008$First Wall, Blanket $90MShield $98MCoils $180MHeating/CD $52MVacuum $138MPrimary Structure $38M(Power Supplies) ($50M)

I would think that ARIES Fuel Handling and Storage costs are too low and ITER is closer to being correct. We are probably underestimating how complex the fuel handling, aka Tritium Plant, really is. However, it is a first of a kind unit and some learning experience will bring down the cost. Prometheus used a 0.85 learning curve, which results in the tenth unit costing 58% of the first unit, CN =C1 x N^(ln(LC)/ln(2)) .

You have to consider the relative cost of the Fuel Handling and Storage System relative to the other major Power Core Systems. Is it more reasonable at $70M or $125M? The Plasma Fueling and Constituent Control System will add another $16M-17M.

I recommend that we need to keep the Fuel Handling and Storage system around $70M. We need to rescale the complete system to the fusion power to around 0.80 power.

For example, CostFH&S = $70M x (Fusion Power/1758MW)^.80 (normalized on ARIES-AT)

Summary of data for Fuel Cycle Handling and StorageReported costs in 2008$

Starfire EBTR ARIES-I ARIES-CS ITERFusion Plant Design $ FCH&S $ FCH&S $ FCH&S $ FCH&S $ FCH&S

22.08 Fuel Handlg & Stor (w/o injection) $86.319 $109.675 $69.806 $67.276 $121.866

22.08.01 Chmbr Exhaust Gas H&P $20.259

22.08.02 Purge & Cover Gas H&P $8.541 $7.904 22.08.03 Prim Clnt Stream H&P $8.541 $7.904 $22.285

22.08.04 Other Liq & Gas Stream H&P 22.08.05 Purification and Isotope Separation $21.135 $48.310 $20.635 $18.554 $9.662 22.08.06 Trit, Deut, and DT Storage $4.576 $4.667 $8.541 $7.904 $22.597

22.08.07 Atmospheric Tritium Recovery $48.070 $36.632 $3.937 $3.750 $47.063

22.03.04 Plasma Fueling & Cnstnt Control $3.239 $4.667 $17.082 $15.807 $16.363

$12.538 $20.066


Maintenance Equipment CostsAccount 22.09


Maintenance Equipment Costs This account includes all the remote maintenance equipment necessary to install, service, and remove (disassemble) all the radioactive components and assemblies in the power plant. The maintenance equipment is subdivided into categories associated with the primary area where significant radioactivity will be present, namely the power core, hot cell, fuel handling and storage and another miscellaneous areas. General purpose building cranes and hoists are included in the Account 26.10, Transportation and Lifting.

The subaccounts include the overhead manipulators supported by the building cranes, mobile casks, transporters, servo-manipulators, hoists, handling machines, end-effectors, inspection and surface metrology equipment, leak detection equipment, cutting/welding/cleanup tools, fixtures, supports and lighting equipment. These equipment classes will service all subsystems contained within the Power Core Building, Hot Cell, and Fuel Handling Buildings and within the power core. This equipment will be used in the initial assembly, operational service and repair/replacement, and end-of-life disassembly and decommissioning.

22.09 Maintenance Equipment22.09.01 Power Core Maintenance Equipment22.09.02 Hot Cell Maintenance Equipment22.09.03 Fuel Handling Maintennace Equipment22.09.04 Other Plant Equipment Maintenance Equipment


Maintenance Equipment Cost ComparisonMaintenance has always been a key design and performance issue for fusion power plants, but seldom have they been defined or reported in the study.

Starfire and EBTR reported costs at the component level for Power Core and Hot Cell and provided a 35% spares allowance. I added an allowance for the Fuel Handling and Other Plant Maint. Equipment accounts so totals do not reflect reported values.

Summary of data for Maintenance EquipmentReported costs in 2008$

Starfire EBTR ARIES-I ARIES-CS ITERFusion Plant Design Maint Equip Maint Equip Maint Equip Maint Equip Maint Equip

22.09 Maintenance Equpment $153.286 $119.671 Not Avail Not Avail $177.344

22.09.01 Power Core Maint Equip $83.578 $51.339

22.09.02 Hot Cell Maint Equip $33.463 $32.088 22.09.03 Fuel Handling Maint Equip$27.184 $27.184 22.09.04 Other Plant Maint Equip $9.061 $9.061

To obtain a rough estimate of the ARIES maintenance equipment costs, I evaluated the ARIES Other Power Core algorithms, which yielded $6M-$7M for all designs. In contrast, ARIES-I and CS reported $64M-$68M. Therefore they must have included a maintenance cost around $58M to $60M.


I would like to adopt a Maintenance Equipment cost closer to Starfire ($150M), but this seems to be too high in terms of other systems. $60M seems to be too low, therefore I would recommend a cost of $100M in $2008$ scaled to thermal power^0.8.

Summary of Other Power Core Equipment data ARIES-AT algorithms2008$ 2008$ 2008$

Fusion Plant Design Pth Reported Reported Calculated

Starfire 3800 $12.59EBTR 3726 $12.59

Prom-L 3071 $3.65ARIES-I 2544 $64.09 $6.85ARIES-I' 2870 $7.73ARIES-II 2630 $6.92ARIES-III 2997 $8.00ARIES-IV 2590 $6.81ARIES-RS 2618.60 $7.05ARIES-AT 1982.40 $5.34ARIES-ST 0.00 $9.08ARIES-CS 0.00 $67.91 $7.85


Instrumentation and Control Equipment Costs

Account 22.10


Instrumentation and Control Equipment Costs

This account includes all the power core instrumentation and control. This would include plasma diagnostics. However for the 10th of a kind plant, plasma diagnostics should be a mature understanding of the plasma behavior and its control aspects. Therefore, all those diagnostic instruments will be incorporated into the plasma and power core instrumentation and control systems. It is anticipated the I&C technologies will be much more advanced than current capabilities. This system will include the power core instrumentation and control, radiation and monitoring equipment, isolated indicating and recording equipment, data acquisition and recording, and communication equipment.

The overall control function for the power plant probably will be included in this account although the WBS would indicate it is just for the power core.

22.10 Instrumentation and Control22.10.01 Power Core Instrumentation & Control Equipment22.10.02 Radiation Monitoring Equipment22.10.03 Isolated Indicating & Recording Equipment22.10.04 Data Acquisition and Recording Equipment22.10.05 Communications Equipment

Assume diagnostics and health monitoring included in instrumentation (22.10.01)


Instrumentation and Control Equipment Cost Algorithm Comparison

The Instrumentation and Control (I&C) is notionally described, but the exact equipment content will not be known until the Demo has operated. Significant technology advances are anticipated in this system. The fusion I&C estimates were all were based on the Starfire estimate of $54M in 2008$. ITER is still developing its I&C architecture and equipment specifications and the ITER I&C cost is a factor of 6 greater than the fusion estimates.

The fusion plant I&C probably should cost in the $55M-$60M class to be consistent with the other plant systems. Suggest retaining the present constant cost of $58M.

The three ARIES constant algorithms have been escalated over the years, but still remain in the $50-$60M class. The instrumentation for a fusion power plant should be simpler than an experiment (ITER is $327M), but it is still a very complex facility to control.


LSA factor applied

Summary of I&C Equipment data2008$ 2008$ 2008$ 2008$

Fusion Plant Design Reported Calculated Calculated Calculated

Starfire $54.091 A-I A-II, -IV A-ATEBTR $54.091 LSA 4 LSA 4 LSA 4

Prom-L $38.564ARIES-I $53.907 $53.89 $54.26 $35.84ARIES-I' $53.89 $54.26 $35.84ARIES-II $53.89 $54.26 $35.84ARIES-III $53.89 $54.26 $35.84ARIES-IV $53.89 $54.26 $35.84ARIES-RS $53.89 $54.26 $35.84ARIES-AT $53.89 $54.26 $35.84ARIES-ST $53.89 $54.26 $35.84AFIES-CS $49.834 $53.89 $54.26 $35.84

ITER $327.728


Other Power Core Equipment Costs

Account 22.11


Other Power Core Equipment Costs

This account encompasses all other power core equipment not specifically identified elsewhere. This does include the special heating systems, special cooling systems (low temperature shield, vacuum vessel, and other systems), coolant receiving/storage/makeup system, gas systems and inert atmosphere systems.

In earlier cost assessments, the maintenance equipment was included in this account. However, the plant maintenance is such an important element in the plant, it was removed and entered under its own major account (22.09), leaving five general subaccounts.

22.11 Other Power Core Equipment22.11.01 Special Heating Equipment22.11.02 Special Cooling Equipment (low temp shield, vacuum vessel, other structures)22.11.03 Coolant Receiving, Storage and Makeup Equipment22.11.04 Gas Systems Equipment22.11.05 Inert Atmosphere Equipment (Power Core,Hot Cell, and Fuel Handling Buildings)


Other Power Core Equipment Cost Algorithm Comparison

The cost algorithm with the updated coefficient is probably reasonable for the power core equipment without the maintenance equipment included. We need to examine the equation for this account to make sure maintenance is not included.

Starfire, EBTR, and Prometheus provided a detailed breakdown of these subaccounts. However, all ARIES designs lumped maintenance and all other power core equipment into a single algorithm. Only ARIES-1 and –CS reported at the 22.11 level.

ARIES provided an algorithm based on Gross Thermal Power to estimate the cost of the Other Power Core Equipment. The data in the table would indicate that the algorithm is only estimating the cost of the other equipment and is not estimating the cost of the maintenance equipment. The reported costs for ARIES-I and –CS probably have maintenance included.

Summary of Other Power Core Equipment data ARIES-AT algorithms2008$ 2008$ 2008$

Fusion Plant Design Pth Reported Reported Calculated

Starfire 3800 $12.59EBTR 3726 $12.59

Prom-L 3071 $3.65ARIES-I 2544 $64.09 $6.85ARIES-I' 2870 $7.73ARIES-II 2630 $6.92ARIES-III 2997 $8.00ARIES-IV 2590 $6.81ARIES-RS 2618.60 $7.05ARIES-AT 1982.40 $5.34ARIES-ST 0.00 $9.08ARIES-CS 0.00 $67.91 $7.85


Turbine Plant Equipment CostsAccount 23


Turbine Plant Equipment Costs

This account includes the costs for the Turbine Plant equipment to take the thermal energy from the fusion power core and convert it into electrical energy.

This system can either be an advanced Rankine (steam) or a Brayton (helium or other gas) turbine fluid or maybe a combined gas cycle turbine.

Costs for all studies prior to ARIES-AT have included the Heat Rejection System within TPE Costs. However beginning with ARIES-AT, Heat Rejection System is a separate account

23 Turbine - Generator Equipment23.01 Turbine - Generators

Turbine-Generators and AccessoriesFoundationsStandby- ExcitersLubrications Gas SystemsReheaters

23.02 Main Steam or other Main Heat Transfer Fluid SystemPipingValvesPumpsSupports

23.03 Condensing or Heat Sink Heat Exhanger SystemsCondensersCondensate SystemGas Removal SystemTurbine By-pass Systems

23.04 Feedwater Heating or Heat Recovery SystemRegenerators & RecuperatorsPipingPumpsTanks

23.05 Other Turbine Plant EquipmentTurbine AuxiliariesAuxiliaries Cooling SystemMakeup Treatment SystemChemical Treatment and Condensate Purification SystemCentral Lubrication Service System

23.06 Turbine Plant Instrumentation & ControlProcess Instrumentation & ControlAutomatic Monitoring and ControlIsolated Indicating and Recording Gauges, Meters and Instr

Spare Parts Allowance (include in individual costs)23.99 Contingency Allowance (include in Acct 96)


Turbine Plant Equipment Costs

$250.00

$300.00

$350.00

$400.00

$450.00

$500.00

1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600

Gross Electric Power, MWe

Co

st, M

$ in

200

8$

H2O or OC

Li or LiPb

He

Turbine Plant Equipment Cost Algorithms


• Basis is Titan (PET 1200MW scaled to .83 or .70 exponent)

• Basis updated in 2008 for ARIES-AT (1.2% increase for all)

• Cost basis is LSA of 4, but LSA factors are all 1.0

TPE Cost Algorithms Cost (OC, H2O) = EF x $257.55 x (PET/1200) ^.83 Cost (Li, LiPb) = EF x $243.34 x (PET/1200) ^.83

Cost (He) = EF x $208.08 x (PET/1200) ^.70

EF is escalation factor from 1992$

TPE algorithms based on primary fluid makes no sense, instead suggest adopting Rankine (steam) or Brayton (gas)-based algorithms.

The next slide compares reported costs to algorithms used

ARIES-AT algorithms


Turbine Plant Equipment Cost Database

Primary (H2O or OC) and Steam

Primary (He) and Steam or Primary (LiPb) and He

Primary (Li), Intermediate (Na), and Steam

Primary (LiPb and He) and Steam or He

Brayton Cycle

These data are with Ron Miller’s updated ARIES-AT cost algorithms that are 1.2% higher than the ARIES II-IV costing algorithms

Notice that all ARIES estimates are around 16% or more higher than algorithm that should have been used

ChronologicalSummary of data for plotting TPE 2008$ 2008$

Using Updated Algorithms Reported CalculatedFusion Plant Design Coolant Pet $ TPE $ TPE Compared to Algorithm

Starfire H2O 1440 $390.80 $424.62 8% lowEBTR H2O 1430 $390.80 $422.17 8% low

Prom-L Pb & He 1382 $388.07 $387.74 OKARIES-I He 1247 $351.66 $302.94 16% highARIES-I' He 1400 $388.30 $328.50 18% highARIES-II Li 1180 $396.52 $340.08 16% highARIES-III' OC 1310 $458.17 $392.55 16% highARIES-IV He 1240 $353.30 $301.75 17% highARIES-RS Li 1204.50 $403.11 $345.93 16% highARIES-AT LiPb 1169.60 $344.42 $289.65 18% highARIES-ST LiPb & He 1517.90 $480.82 $347.63 38% highAFIES-CS LiPb & He 1253.00 $351.85 $303.96 16% high

Grouped and OrderedOrdered data for plotting TPE 2008$ 2008$

Using Updated Algorithms Reported CalculatedFusion Plant Design Coolant Pet $ TPE $ TPE Compared to Algorithm

ARIES-III' OC 1310 $458.17 $392.55 16% highStarfire H2O 1440 $390.80 $424.62 8% lowEBTR H2O 1430 $390.80 $422.17 8% low

ARIES-II Li 1180 $396.52 $340.08 16% highARIES-RS Li 1204.50 $403.11 $345.93 16% highARIES-CS LiPb & He 1253.00 $351.85 $303.96 16% high

Prom-L Pb & He 1382 $388.07 $387.74 OKARIES-ST LiPb & He 1517.90 $480.82 $347.63 38% highARIES-AT LiPb 1169.60 $344.42 $289.65 18% highARIES-IV He 1240 $353.30 $301.75 17% highARIES-I He 1247 $351.66 $302.94 16% highARIES-I' He 1400 $388.30 $328.50 18% high

ARIES-AT algorithms

ARIES-AT algorithms


Turbine Plant Equipment Costs Turbine Plant Equipment Costs

$250.00

$300.00

$350.00

$400.00

$450.00

$500.00

1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600


Co

st, M

$ in

200

8$

H2O or OC

Li or LiPb

He

ARIES-III (OC)

ARIES-I' (He)

ARIES-IV (He)

Starfire (H2O)EBTR (H2O)

ARIES-AT (LiPb)

Prom-L (Pb& He)ARIES-II (Li + Na?)

ARIES-RS (Li + Na)

ARIES-I (He)ARIES-CS (LiPb & He)


ARIES-AT algorithmsLSA factor is 1.0 for all cycles, therefore the costs for all cycles already consider the nuclear aspects inherent in the LSA approach.

All reported costs are about 16-23% higher than algorithms

Suggest scrapping existing algorithms and develop new ones based on type of cycle• Rankine• Adv. Rankine• Brayton – Helium• Brayton – Supercritical CO2• Brayton – Cascaded SC CO2• Combined Cycle Gas Turbine


Electric Plant Equipment Costs Account 24


Electric Plant Equipment Costs

This account defines the costs associated with the Electric Plant Equipment, which takes the electrical energy from the turbine-generator sets and distributes to the plant power systems and to the grid connection.

The subaccounts in this account are switchgear, stations service equipment, switchboards, trace heating, protective equipment, electrical structures, wiring containers, power and control wiring, and electrical wiring.

24 Electric Plant Equipment24.01 Switchgear

Generator CircuitsStation Service

24.02 Station Service EquipmentStation Service & Startup TransformersLow Voltage Unit Substation & Lighting TransformersBattery SystemDiesel Engine GeneratorsGas Turbine GeneratorsMotor Generator Sets

24.03 Switchboards, including Heat TracingMain Control Board for Electric SystemsAuxiliary Power and Signal Boards

24.04 Protective EquipmentGenerating Station Grounding SystemCathodic Protection

24.05 Electrical Structures and Wiring ContainersConcrete Cable Tunnels, Trenches and EnvelopesCable Trays and SupportConduitOther Structures

24.06 Power and Control WiringGenerator Circuits WiringStation Service Power WiringControl WiringInstrument WiringContainment Penetrations

24.07 Electrical LightingPower Core Building LightingTurbine Building LightingElectric Plant Equipment Building LightingMiscellaneous Plant Equipment Buildings LightingTarget Manufacturing Plant Building LightingDriver Building LightingYard Lighting

24.98 Spare Parts Allowance (include in individual costs)24.99 Contingency Allowance (include in Acct 96)


Electric Plant Equipment Cost Algorithms


• Basis is Titan (PET 1200MW

• Basis updated in 2008 by Miller for ARIES-AT (1.2% increase)

EPE Cost Algorithms, ARIES-AT Cost = EF x $127.97 x (PET/1200) ^.49 EF is escalation factor from 1992$ LSA1 factor 0.75

LSA 2,3 factor 0.84LSA 4 factor 1.0

I do not understand why LSA factors would be used for Electric Plant Equipment as It probably not be nuclear rated.

Should we continue this LSA usage?


$100.00

$120.00

$140.00

$160.00

$180.00

$200.00

$220.00

$240.00

1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600


Cp

st,

M$

in

20

08

$

LSA 4 (1.0)

LSA1 (0.75)

LSA 2,3 (0.84)

ARIES-AT algorithms


Electric Plant Equipment Cost Database

Chronological

These data are with Ron Miller’s ARIES-AT cost algorithms that are 1.2% higher than the ARIES II-IV costing algorithms

Notice that all pre- ARIES estimates are around 16% or more higher than algorithm, but after the algorithm began use on ARIES, it is now slightly higher than the updated algorithm (which was raised 1.2% in this assessment).

w/o LSA W/LSA

Summary data for plotting EPE 2008$ 2008$ 2008$

Using Updated Algorithms Reported Calculated Calculated w/o LSA W/LSAFusion Plant Design Coolant Pet $ EPE $ EPE $ EPE Compared to Algorithm

Starfire H2O 1440 $231.38 $198.30 16% highEBTR H2O 1430 $198.24 $197.63 OK

Prom-L Pb & He 1382 $239.88 $194.35 23% highARIES-I He 1247 $221.66 $184.80 20% highARIES-I' He 1400 $150.93 $195.58 $146.69 3% highARIES-II Li 1180 $155.18 $179.87 $151.09 3% highARIES-III' OC 1310 $162.97 $189.32 $159.03 3% highARIES-IV He 1240 $141.86 $184.29 $138.22 3% highARIES-RS Li 1204.50 $156.74 $181.69 $152.62 3% highARIES-AT LiPb 1169.60 $139.60 $179.09 $134.32 4% highARIES-ST LiPb & He 1517.90 $177.76 $203.49 $170.93 4% highAFIES-CS LiPb & He 1253.00 $155.23 $185.24 $155.60 OK

ARIES-AT algorithms


Electric Plant Equipment Costs Base Case


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$120.00

$140.00

$160.00

$180.00

$200.00

$220.00

$240.00

1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600


Cp

st,

M$

in

20

08

$

LSA 4 (1.0)

LSA1 (0.75)

LSA 2,3 (0.84)

ARIES-III’ (OC)

ARIES-I' (He)ARIES-IV (He)

Starfire (H2O)

EBTR (H2O)

ARIES-AT (LiPb)

Prom-L (Pb& He)

ARIES-II (Li + Na?)

ARIES-RS (Li + Na)

ARIES-I (He)



Pre LSA Reported Costs are high

LSA = 2 costs, well correlated

LSA = 1 costs, well correlated


Heat Rejection Equipment CostsAccount 25


Heat Rejection Equipment Costs This account defines the costs associated with the Heat Rejection Equipment, which takes the lower grade heat rejected from the turbine plant equipment (Pth- PET) and the auxiliary coolant systems, turbine plant cooling systems, electrical component cooling loads, cryogenic systems and the I&C systems. This system dissipates this heat to the local environment. The ultimate heat sink is commonly a wet or dry cooling tower and/or groundwater.

25 Heat Rejection Equipment25.01 Water Intake Common Facilities25.02 Circulating Water Systems25.03 Cooling Towers25.04 Other Heat Rejection Systems

This Heat Rejection account typically was lumped with Turbine Plant Equipment, but ARIES-AT and subsequent designs plus the Gen IV have separated it as a separate account, Account 25.

Several costing algorithms have been developed over the years to estimate this system.

The LSA factors for all levels are 1.0


Heat Rejection Equipment Cost Database

Starfire and EBTR costs were developed from R. M. Parsons vendor quotesPrometheus was from an Ebasco vendor quoteARIES 1 had a cost breakout for Heat Rejection as well as ARIES-AT, ST and CS, which were all low compared to the algorithm

Summary of data for plotting Heat RejectionARIES-1 Thomsom Delene Prom-L ARIES-AT

2008$ 2008$ 2008$ 2008$ 2008$ 2008$ Using Updated Algorithms Reported Calculated Calculated Calculated Calculated Calculated

Fusion Plant Design P rejection $ HRE $ HRE $ HRE $ HRE $ HRE $ HRE

Starfire 2560 $102.04 $77.56 $78.72 $97.20 $109.84 $98.07EBTR 2598 $102.04 $78.48 $79.65 $98.64 $111.14 $99.52

Prom-L 1882 $86.07 $60.63 $61.55 $71.46 $85.88 $72.09ARIES-I 1297 $45.01 $45.02 $45.69 $49.24 $63.76 $49.68ARIES-I' 1470 $0.00 $49.76 $50.51 $55.81 $70.47 $56.31ARIES-II 1470 $0.00 $47.58 $48.30 $52.78 $67.39 $53.25ARIES-III' 310 $0.00 $54.84 $55.67 $63.03 $77.67 $63.59ARIES-IV 1290 $0.00 $44.82 $45.50 $48.98 $63.48 $49.42ARIES-RS 1414 $0.00 $48.24 $48.96 $53.69 $68.32 $54.17ARIES-AT 813 $33.04 $30.98 $31.44 $30.86 $43.87 $31.14ARIES-ST 1855 $83.51 $59.94 $60.84 $70.44 $84.90 $71.07AFIES-CS 1663 $62.74 $54.92 $55.75 $63.14 $77.78 $63.70


Heat Rejection Equipment Cost Algorithms

Starfire, EBTR, and Prometheus were based on vender quotes

• ARIES-I used an algorithm,

= $0.1456M x (PRej)^0.8 (in 2008$)

• Thompson had an algorithm,

= $2.341x (PRej x10^6)^0.8 (in 2008$)

• Delene had an algorithm,

= $87.326M x (PRej /2300)^1.0 (in 2008$)

• Prometheus used an algorithm,

= $85.07M x (PRej /1860)^0.8 (in 2008$)

• ARIES-AT had an algorithm,

= $88.105M x (PRej /2300)^1.0 (in 2008$)

• All LSA factors are 1.0 for all LSA levels

ARIES-AT algorithm seems to work fairly well except for ARIES-ST.

Cost of Heat Rejection Equipment

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500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Rejected Thermal Power, MW

Co

st,

M$

in

20

08

$

ARIES-I, 1980/1988

Thompson, 1987

Delene 1990

Prometheus-L, 1991

ARIES-AT (LiPb)

Starfire (H2O)

EBTR (H2O)

Prom-L (Pb& He)

ARIES-I (He)



and ARIES-AT


Miscellaneous Plant Equipment Costs

Account 26


Miscellaneous Plant Equipment Costs

This account defines the general equipment costs associated with all parts of the plant, including transportation and lifting equipment, air and water service systems, communication equipment, and furnishing and facilities.

26 Miscellaneous Plant Equipment26.01 Transportation and Lifting Equipment

Cranes, Hoists, Monorails and ConveyersRailwayRoadway EquipmentWatercraftVehicle Maintenance Equipment

26.02 Air and Water Service SystemsAir Systems (Excl Piping)Water Systems (Excl Piping)Auxiliary Heating Boilers

26.03 Communications EquipmentLocal Communications SystemsSignal Systems

26.04 Furnishings and FixturesSafety EquipmentShop, Laboratory, and Test EquipmentOffice Equipment and FurnishingsChange Room EquipmentEnvironmental Monitoring EquipmentDining Facilities

26.98 Spare Parts Allowance (include in individual costs)26.99 Contingency Allowance (include in Acct 96)


Miscellaneous Plant Equipment

Cost Algorithm


• Basis is Titan (PET 1200MW

• Basis updated in 2008 by Miller for ARIES-AT (1.1% increase)

EPE Cost Algorithms (ARIES-AT) Cost = EF x $61.21 x (PET/1200) ^.59 EF is escalation factor from 1992$ LSA 1 factor 0.85

LSA 2 factor 0.90LSA 3 factor 0.93LSA 4 factor 1.0

I do not understand why LSA factors would be used for Miscellaneous Plant Equipment as It probably not be nuclear rated.

Should we continue this LSA usage?

Misc Plant Equipment Costs

$50.00

$60.00

$70.00

$80.00

$90.00

$100.00

$110.00

1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600


Co

st, M

$ in

200

8$

LSA 4 (1.0)

LSA 1 (0.85)

LSA 2 (0.90)

ARIES-AT algorithms


Miscellaneous Plant Equipment Cost Database

These data are with Ron Miller’s updated cost algorithms that are 1.1% higher than the ARIES II-IV costing algorithms

Notice that all pre- ARIES estimates are around 16% or more lower than algorithm, but after the algorithm began use on ARIES, it is now slightly higher than the updated algorithm (which was raised 1.2% in this assessment). The exception is the ARIES-AT which was 8% low and ARIES-ST which was 23% higher with the LSA factor applied.

Chronological w/o LSA W/LSA

Summary of data for plotting MPE 2008$ 2008$ 2008$ ARIES-AT algorithms Using Updated Algorithms Reported Calculated Calculated w/o LSA W/LSA

Fusion Plant Design Coolant Pet $ MPE $ MPE $ MPE Compared to Algorithm

Starfire H2O 1440 $81.00 $96.60 14% lowEBTR H2O 1430 $78.15 $96.20 19% low

Prom-L Pb & He 1382 $82.85 $94.28 12% lowARIES-I He 1247 $81.63 $88.73 8% lowARIES-I' He 1400 $82.34 $95.00 $80.75 2% highARIES-II Li 1180 $78.65 $85.89 $77.30 2% highARIES-III' OC 1310 $83.33 $91.35 $82.22 1% highARIES-IV He 1240 $76.24 $88.44 $75.17 1% highARIES-RS Li 1204.50 $79.60 $86.94 $78.24 2% highARIES-AT LiPb 1169.60 $67.11 $85.44 $72.63 8% lowARIES-ST LiPb & He 1517.90 $110.33 $99.65 $89.68 23% highAFIES-CS LiPb & He 1253.00 $79.41 $88.99 $80.09 1% low



ARIES-AT (LiPb)


Pre LSA Reported Costs are lowOther LSA 1 and 2 costs are clustered about predicted lines

ARIES-AT is low by 8%, ARIES-ST is high by 23%


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00

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LSA 4 (1.0)

LSA 1 (0.85)

LSA 2 (0.90)

ARIES-III (OC)

ARIES-I' (He)

ARIES-IV (He)

Starfire (H2O)

EBTR (H2O)

Prom-L (Pb& He)

ARIES-II (Li + Na?)

ARIES-I (He)ARIES-RS (Li + Na)


ARIES-AT (LiPb)


Special Materials Costs Account 26


Special Materials Costs This account covers the special materials added to the fusion power plant just before testing and validation commences. The common categories for these materials are heat transfer fluids, cover gases for material handling systems and buildings, breathing air, and specialty gases or liquids not preloaded into the plant systems. These materials are considered to be capital equipment, but not be procured with the various plant systems. Replenishment of these materials are considered to be an operational expense. The special materials will include specially treated water, liquid metals, cryogenic liquids, gases, and perhaps some solid materials.

Starfire and EBTR (H2O) set aside a $0.566M (in 2008$) allowance for Special Materials

Prometheus-HI estimate was $1.91M (in 2008$) for Pb coolant plus other materials

ARIES started using mass-based algorithms with ARIES-I. LSA value is 1.0 for all LSA levels.

Notice the jump in costs when liquid metals began to be used

Also notice the bigger jump with ARIES-AT, -ST and –CS (all LiPb). This is related to high levels of 6Li.

Summary of Special Materials 2008$

Fusion Plant Design Primary Intermediate Turbine Reported

Starfire H2O Steam $0.57

EBTR H2O Steam $0.57

Prom-HI Pb & He Steam $1.91ARIES-I He Steam $0.92ARIES-I' He Steam $0.99ARIES-II Li Na? Steam $20.97ARIES-III OC Steam $0.85ARIES-IV He Steam $0.85ARIES-RS Li Na Steam $15.69ARIES-AT LiPb Helium $118.71ARIES-ST LiPb & He Helium $154.30ARIES-CS LiPb & He Helium $169.24

ARIES-SPPS Li None Steam $29.05

Working Fluids


Special Materials Cost Algorithms Starting with ARIES-I, the heat transfer fluids and covers gases were estimated using the mass of the primary(?) heat transfer fluids. There was an implicit assumption that the primary working fluid mass external to the power core was 1.5 times the power core fluid mass.

• When these algorithm coefficients are brought to a common dollar year basis, there are variations, hopefully trying to adjust for material price fluctuations.

• There is a factor in LM algorithms for lithium enrichment (see next slide). • ARIES II-IV had cost data on other liquid metals, but not transferred into algorithms.• “Other Materials” may apply to either water and organic coolants. • Cannot determine if a cost for Argon was included in reported costs• I doubt if any intermediate fluid mass was calculated or cost estimated. • The fluids in the turbine cycle were not mentioned, maybe included in “Other” • Mass ratio of Li and Pb is not stated.

Special Materials AlgorithmsSource Material Cost Algorithm, M$

ARIES-I LiPb =1.424 x (7.83 x fraction 6Li + 2.46) x 0.001 x tonnes LM in 1988$

Li =1.424 x (1169 x fraction 6Li + 58.0) x 0.001 x tonnes LM in 1988$ Other =1.424 x 0.25 in 1988$ Argon =1.424 x 0.13 in 1988$

ARIES-II,-IV LiPb = (12.81x fraction 6Li +4.02) x 0.001 x tonnes LM in 1992$Li = (1233 x fraction 6Li + 61.2) x 0.001 x tonnes LM in 1992$

Other = 0.41 in 1992$Argon = 0.21 in 1992$

ARIES-AT LiPb = (13.68 x fraction 6Li +4.29) x 0.001 x tonnes LM in 1992$Li = (1317 x fraction 6Li + 65.4) x 0.001 x tonnes LM in 1992$

Other = 0.44 in 1992$Argon = 0.22 in 1992$


Special Materials Cost Algorithms In the Systems Studies chapter of ARIES-II and IV, the cost of the liquid metal (LM) heat transfer fluids were defined for a range of 6Li enrichment. The chart below illustrates the cost of both lithium and lithium lead.

Cost of Enriched Lithium Coolants

$0.00

$500.00

$1,000.00

$1,500.00

$2,000.00

$2,500.00

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Enrichment, fraction

Lit

hiu

m C

os

t, $

/kg

$0.00

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

Lit

hiu

m L

ea

d, $

/kg

Lithium

Lithium Lead

2008$ 2008$Enrichment Lithium LiPb

0.075 $70.86 $7.090.3 $728.42 $11.200.6 $1,598.56 $16.440.9 $2,470.83 $22.18

These data for LiPb match well with provided algorithms.

However the lithium algorithm costs overestimates the material costs by factors of 4.7 to 3.0 depending on algorithm used, see next slide for comparison


Summary of Special Materials 2008$ LM Mass 6LI Erchmt A-I Algo A-II-IV Algo A-AT Algo Matl Cost

Fusion Plant Design Primary Intermediate Turbine Argon Reported MT fraction M$, 2008$ M$, 2008$ M$, 2008$ M$, 2008$

Starfire H2O Steam $0.57 $0.58 $0.58 $0.62

EBTR H2O Steam $0.57 $0.58 $0.58 $0.62

Prom-HI Pb & He Steam $1.91 ComputedARIES-I He Steam Yes $0.92 $0.88 $0.88 $0.94 UsingARIES-I' He Steam Yes $0.99 $0.88 $0.88 $0.94 Matl andARIES-II Li Na? Steam Yes $20.97 ? ? EnrichmentARIES-III OC Steam Yes $0.85 $0.88 $0.88 $0.94 ChartsARIES-IV He Steam Yes $0.85 $0.88 $0.88 $0.94ARIES-RS Li Na Steam Yes $15.69 222.875 0.074 $74.47 $48.45 $51.75 $15.79ARIES-AT LiPb Helium Yes $118.71 5264.259 0.9 $115.56 $116.30 $124.17 $116.75ARIES-ST LiPb & He Helium Yes $154.30 9128.748 0.6 $150.79 $151.74 $162.00 $150.07ARIES-CS LiPb & He Helium Yes $169.24 0.7

ARIES-SPPS Li None Steam Yes $29.05 436.767 0.074 $145.66 $94.65 $101.12 $30.95

Working Fluids

Special Materials Cost Algorithms

• Reported costs for Water are consistent and probably correct• The reported ARIES-III probably includes “Other” and Argon, is OC the same cost as water and

He?• Should helium be the same cost as Water and OC? Also includes Argon• The Li algorithm overestimates the reported and unit material costs by factors of 3 to 4.7. Reported

cost probably used the unit costs from ARIES-II-IV Systems Studies Chapter data• There is good agreement between the reported LiPb costs and the algorithms and unit costs

Algorithms from earlier slide plus LM mass and enrichment were added to compare costs

Recommendations:• Discontinue the use of algorithms and use mass of heat transfer media and unit costs• Quantify masses in primary loop (no factors) and intermediate loop• Update material costs for all materials including lithium enrichment


Conclusions- Next Actions• Consistently report all costs at all relevant levels and influencing parameters

• Consider eliminating the use of LSA factors, especially on MHTT loops

• Consider the use of learning curve factors with vendor estimates

• Continue to use updated ARIES-AT algorithms, except as noted

• In MHTT system, affirm AT algorithms are being applied properly, add in Intermediate Loop costs, and discontinue use of LSA factors

• Triple the cost of the Radioactive Materials Handling and Treatment

• Use new thermal power^0.8 scaling for Fuel Handling & Storage; Use buildings’ volume for ATR

• Separate Maintenance Equipment from Other Power Core Equipment and scale $100M to thermal power^0.8

• On TPE, cease using primary coolant parameters and define new algorithms based on type of turbine cycle

• Reported costs for EPE are well correlated with LSA adjusted algorithms, however LSA factors do not make sense. Suggest getting new EPE cost data.

• New Heat Rejection reported costs generally agree except for ARIES-ST. No design details are reported

• On Misc Plant Equipment, suggest eliminating LSA and renormalizing coefficients. ARIES-AT was low and ST was high – check out the algorithms in code

• For Special Materials, discontinue the use of algorithms, quantify type and mass of materials used, and apply material unit costs. Include primary loop, intermediate loop, and cover gases.

ARIES- Pathways, April 23-2009, Madison, WI Page 1 L. Waganer Consultant for The Boeing Company...

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Transcript of ARIES- Pathways, April 23-2009, Madison, WI Page 1 L. Waganer Consultant for The Boeing Company...