Areas supporting resilience to climate change impacts

– Intact ecosystems have the potential to reduce climate change impacts on society through supporting resilience to climate change impacts (ecosystem based adaptation)

– Particular parts of the country are of particularly high value for supporting cc resilience

Key areas• Protection of areas with high diversity of habitats • Protection of environmental gradients • Protection of meso-scale refugia

– South facing, gorge habitats• Corridors

– Riparian – Escarpments

• Larger well linked unfragmented natural ecosystems

• Buffer systems:– Riparian and coastal

High diversity of habitats• Diversity

– Biomes– Bioregions– Vegetation types

GradientsPrecipitation gradients

Topographic gradients

Temperature gradients

Refugia

South Facing Slopes Gorges/kloofs

Corridors

Riparian corridors Coastal processes

High value connected habitats

Large unfragmented landscapes which meet targets

Protected areas

Other components

Intact centres of endemism

Corridors

Gradients Diversity

Endemism

Refuge sitesPriority unfragmented

Areas supporting resilience to climate change impacts

Now what?

1.) Dark areas (both green and orange) are important for adaptation (corridors, gradients etc)2.) Green areas are likely to remain within their current biome 3.) Orange areas are likely to be under structural pressure

“Critical Biodiversity Areas”Critical Biodiversity Areas

Social and economic prioritization

• Catchments (ground water recharge etc)• Communal grazing lands• Proximity to communities

• Identify the most important subset as the priority areas for Ecosystem Based Adaptation

Now what? (2)Way forward

• Tech stuff:• Revised & independent climate data• New method – “Maxlike”

• Social and location specific:• Identify the subset of areas supporting

cc resilience which are most important for society “ecosystem based adaptation”

• All is not lost for the Succulent Karoo!! Very important message.

• The protection of priority intact natural landscapes is the cornerstone of ecosystem based adaptation

• These areas are important for:– Societal adaptation to climate impacts– Risk mitigation– Ongoing delivery of ecosystem services (e.g. water)– Biodiversity (including species) adaptation

•  Both high impact and low impact areas are important but for different reasons and need to be prioritized appropriately based on specific context

Headline messages

• We can identify important areas to give positive benefit under a wide range of scenarios and with current high levels of uncertainty (i.e. We are not dependent on climate boffins giving us the answer)

• These areas need to be protected through a range of spatial mechanisms:– Land management interventions (e.g. CSA’s projects)– Land use controls and zoning (including Bioregional Plans)– Protected area expansion (stewardship and other mechanisms for PA

expansion)– Industry interventions (Place based spatial planning with mining, agriculture

and industry)

Headline messagesHeadline messages (2)

Dr Stephen Holnesssholness@nmmu.ac.za

Thanks!