AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 545 AM CHST MON FEB 24 2014
description
Transcript of AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 545 AM CHST MON FEB 24 2014
wind cld cover (base) precip
Tue takeoff(02:15AM)
20 kt NE SCT 2000, 30000 ft scattered
midflight (10AM)
Convection SE of Guam (9N, 150E), cld tops to 56kft, lightning likely
Landing9PM)
25 kt NE SCT 2000, 30000 ft scattered
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION545 AM CHST MON FEB 24 2014
SCT showers NW ASSOCIATED WITH A STAIONARY SHEAR LINE. Isolated elsewhere.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W SE OF CHUUK IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT STILL NO INCLINATION TO MOVE ANYWHERE.
Progs ALL BRING INCREASING NE WINDS IF 93W moves W.
‘current’ conditions:satellite IR imagery on 2014-02-23, ~21UTC
(02-24 Mon, ~7AM)
•Convection organized near 9N 150E (cld tops ~56 kft w/ lightning near 9N, 150E)
Water Vapor 2014-02-24 Mon, ~7AM
Water Vapor 2014-02-23 Sun, ~7AM
Overnight at Andersen: 02-24 Mon AM
•tropopause -84.7 C (188.45 K) at 56.2 kft
‘current’ conditions:sounding on 2014-02-23, 12UTC
(02-23 Sun 10PM)
Tue take-off conditions (GFS):1000mb precip & winds on 2014-02-24, 18UTC
(02-25 Tue, 04AM)
NE20 knt
•Surface cyclone SE of Guam
Tue take-off conditions (GFS):850mb RH & winds on 2014-02-24, 18UTC
(02-25 Tue, 04AM)
Dry slot over Guam. NE winds 25 kts.
Tue take-off conditions (GFS):500mb RH & winds on 2014-02-24, 18UTC
(02-25 Tue, 04AM)
Tue landing conditions (GFS):1000mb precip & winds on 2014-02-25, 12UTC
(02-25 Tue, 10PM)
NE25 knt
Tue landing conditions (GFS):850mb RH & winds on 2014-02-24, 12UTC
(02-25 Tue, 10PM)
NE25 knt
Tue take-off and landing conditions (NCAR):
Take Off: Landing:
Feb 24 18UTC Feb 25 12UTC
SCT
SCT SCT
SCT
Tue Take Off conditions (GFS):high clouds & 150mb winds on 2014-02-24,
18UTC(02-25 Tue, 4AM)
CiCu/Cb
Thu midflight conditions (GEOS5):Minimum Temperature on 2014-02-25, 00UTC
(02-25 Tue, 10AM)
RBN
Thu midflight conditions (GEOS5):Tropopause altitude on 2014-02-25, 00UTC
(02-25 Tue, 10AM)
55 kft
53 kft50 kft