Are we running out of energy efficiency?

Sergio Ferreira

European Copper Institute

[email protected]

Are we running out of energy efficiency?

Discussion WebinarJune 2008

www.leonardo-energy.org

Energy Efficiency – setting the scene

•20% primary energy saving by 2020•(20% CO2 emission reduction)•National Energy Efficiency Action Plans

•20% primary energy saving by 2020•(20% CO2 emission reduction)•National Energy Efficiency Action Plans

•High energy costs•Rising (energy) costs

•“Cheapest form of energy you can get”•Competitiveness

•High energy costs•Rising (energy) costs

•“Cheapest form of energy you can get”•Competitiveness


Problems

•Solutions can be simple•Switch ON or OFF•Technology is available•“Frequent flyer” points

•Solutions can be simple•Switch ON or OFF•Technology is available•“Frequent flyer” points

•Energy efficiency doesn’t exist!•There is no low-hanging fruit! ($100 bill joke may be real)

•Energy is too cheap to be worth saving •Time consuming and delivered in small packages•Behavioural change

•The more you consume the cheaper it gets

•Energy efficiency doesn’t exist!•There is no low-hanging fruit! ($100 bill joke may be real)

•Energy is too cheap to be worth saving •Time consuming and delivered in small packages•Behavioural change

•The more you consume the cheaper it gets


Facts

•1973 oil shock• US would be spending 12% of GDP instead of current 7%• Energy intensity down by 30% in France and 40% in Germany

•1973 oil shock• US would be spending 12% of GDP instead of current 7%• Energy intensity down by 30% in France and 40% in Germany

• US: average fridge price has fallen by more than half since the 70s• Energy efficiency has improved by 75%• Size of average unit increased• Ownership has dramatically increased

• US: average fridge price has fallen by more than half since the 70s• Energy efficiency has improved by 75%• Size of average unit increased• Ownership has dramatically increased


World Energy use


Energy use 50% higher without past energy savings


Factor 4 improvement


Factor 6+ improvement


Factor 100,000 + improvement


Life style improvement


Life style improvement (China)


How much energy do we need?5 toe/year per capita

10 billion people by 2100

= 50 Gtoe/year

Currently:12 Gtoe/year


Review

Negajoules Energy Efficiency improvement

– Heavy industry sectors– Automotive– Buildings & Glass windows– Lighting– Computers

Life style improvement Appliance ownership World population Energy needs Energy/fuel cost

Discussion: Are we running out of energy efficiency?


The discussion

1. How much energy do we need?

2. Have we run out of energy efficiency? If not, how much potential is still there to grasp?

3. And why is energy efficiency so hard to pursue?

4. Is it more costly to invest on energy or energy efficiency?

5. What is the worrying trend? (Energy consumption, population growth, life style improvement)

6. What have we learnt from the past?


Can we still save energy?

Are we running out of energy efficiency?

Technology

Transcript of Are we running out of energy efficiency?