Are we in the endgame for smoking?
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Transcript of Are we in the endgame for smoking?
Are we in the endgame for smoking?
Clive Bates
Counterfactual
www.clivebates.com
Global cigarette consumption - still rising
Data source: Ng M, Freeman MK, Fleming TD, et al. Smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption in 187 countries, 1980-2012. JAMA 2014; 311: 183–92.
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1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Bill
ion
pie
ces
Global cigarette consumption 1980-2012
Developing countries
Developed countries
Number of smokers - still rising
Data source: Ng M, Freeman MK, Fleming TD, et al. Smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption in 187 countries, 1980-2012. JAMA 2014; 311: 183–92.
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200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Mill
ion
ad
ult
s
Global adult daily smokers - 1980-2012
Males
Females
Global cigarette consumption – linear trend
Data source: Ng M, Freeman MK, Fleming TD, et al. Smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption in 187 countries, 1980-2012. JAMA 2014; 311: 183–92.
y = 53.203x + 2741.8R² = 0.9669
y = -16.501x + 2437.1R² = 0.949
y = 36.702x + 5179R² = 0.8909
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1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Bill
ion
pie
ces
Global cigarette consumption and trends - linear
A 2030 ‘endgame’ requires implausible declines
Data source: Ng M, Freeman MK, Fleming TD, et al. Smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption in 187 countries, 1980-2012. JAMA 2014; 311: 183–92.
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Bill
ion
pie
ces
Global cigarette consumption - phase out by 2030
Global
Developed countries
Developing countries
Consumption rising since 2005 but slower
Data source: Ng M, Freeman MK, Fleming TD, et al. Smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption in 187 countries, 1980-2012. JAMA 2014; 311: 183–92.
y = 44.274x + 4035.9
y = -23.881x + 2022.7
y = 20.393x + 6058.6
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1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Bill
ion
pie
ces
Global cigarette consumption and trends since 2005 - linear
Global
Developed countries
Developing countries
Recent increase in growth of cigarette consumption
Data source: Ng M, Freeman MK, Fleming TD, et al. Smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption in 187 countries, 1980-2012. JAMA 2014; 311: 183–92.
-60
-40
-20
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Bill
ion
pie
ces
Annual change in global cigarette consumption
Global
Developed countries
Developing countries
Global cigarette consumption – trend to 2030
Data source: Ng M, Freeman MK, Fleming TD, et al. Smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption in 187 countries, 1980-2012. JAMA 2014; 311: 183–92.
y = -1.0886x2 + 90.215x + 2525.9R² = 0.9962
y = -0.3737x2 - 3.7956x + 2363R² = 0.9843
y = -1.4623x2 + 86.419x + 4888.9R² = 0.9932
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1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Bill
ion
pie
ces
Global cigarette consumption and trends – parabolic trend
Global
Developed countries
Developing countries
Global cigarette consumption – trend to 2050
Data source: Ng M, Freeman MK, Fleming TD, et al. Smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption in 187 countries, 1980-2012. JAMA 2014; 311: 183–92.
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Bill
ion
pie
ces
Global cigarette consumption and trends – parabolic trend
Global
Developed countries
Developing countries
Cigarette global consumption trend projection to 2030
Consumption 2010-2030 on parabolic trend projection from 1908-2012 data from Ng M, Freeman MK, Fleming TD, et al. Smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption in 187 countries, 1980-2012. JAMA 2014; 311: 183–92.
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1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Bill
ion
pie
ces
Global cigarette consumption 2010-2030 - on trend
Global cigarette consumption
Hypothetical introduction of new nicotine products
Consumption 2010-2030 on parabolic trend projection from 1908-2012 data from Ng M, Freeman MK, Fleming TD, et al. Smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption in 187 countries, 1980-2012. JAMA 2014; 311: 183–92.
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1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Bill
ion
pie
ces
New non-combustible nicotine with high initial but declining growth
Low risk nicotineconsumption
Global cigarette consumption
Hypothetical introduction of new nicotine products
Consumption 2010-2030 on parabolic trend projection from 1908-2012 data from Ng M, Freeman MK, Fleming TD, et al. Smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption in 187 countries, 1980-2012. JAMA 2014; 311: 183–92.
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Bill
ion
pie
ces
New non-combustible nicotine with high initial but declining growth
This boundary is harder to move. It means reducing both smoking and nicotine use, and may require coercive measures
This boundary is easier to move. It does not require limiting or prohibiting nicotine use and works through user choice.