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Are We In A Tech Bubble?
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Transcript of Are We In A Tech Bubble?
Are We In A Tech Bubble?
Lou KernerJanuary, 2015
My Background
What is A Stock Market Bubble?
A bubble is when investors drive prices beyond any rational reflection of value, as determined by the performance of the companies. Like soap bubbles, investing bubbles look like they’ll rise forever, but they always pop, and the money invested in them dissipates into the wind
Source: Investopedia
Smart People We’re Saying It’s A Bubble Earlier In April ‘14
• George Zachary (4/3/14)– Charles River Ventures– “There is desperation to not miss out on what will be the next big
thing.”
• David Einhorn (4/22/14) – Greenlight Capital– “Now there is a clear consensus that we are witnessing our second
tech bubble in 15 years… Indications include… huge first day IPO pops
• Peter Nieh (4/22/14) – Lightspeed Venture Partners– “I must admit when I first saw the WhatsApp valuation I thought I
needed to get bifocals. I thought I must have missed a decimal point.”
Searches For “Tech Bubble” On Google Recently Peaked In April
Source: Google Trends, November 2014Peak (F) Was When LinkedIn Went Public
Spotting A Bubble Is Easy… After It Bursts
Source: Yahoo FinanceNASDAQ Composite
Growth In To The 2000 BubbleBillions of People Online
Source: ITU, a16Z
Growth Driving Valuations NowBillions of People Online
Source: ITU, a16Z
Classic Way To Spot A Bubble Before It Bursts
Sustained Outsized Market Gains = Bubble
Source: Yahoo Finance
10 Year NASDAQ CAGRs
Source: Yahoo Finance
Current 10 year CAGR in line with the 44 year historical NASDAQ CAGR of 8.9%
“Easy” Monetary Policy Continues To Surprise Market Forecasters
Consumer Confidence Is Trending Up
Volatility Is Low – A Bullish Indicator
Tumbling Crude Prices Is Bullish
Stock Market P/E Ratio
S&P Composite Is Above Long-Term Trend
Massive Day 1 IPO Pops = Bubble
Source: Renaissance Capital
Eventually ….Bubble’s Burst
Source: Renaissance Capital
IPO Pops then Vs. Now
Source: Renaissance Capital, Yahoo Finance
Largest IPO Pops Now Are Just 1/5 of Circa ‘99-’00
Source: Renaissance Capital, November 2014
Peak Growth Stock ValuationsThen & Now
Number of Technology IPOs By Year
Source: Jay Ritter, University of Florida, 4/14Tech IPO Volumes Appear (at the new) Normal
Companies Are Taking Longer to IPO
More Mature Companies At IPO Is Sign of A Healthy Market
Companies Are Taking Longer to IPO Because….?
• Being public is increasingly painful– Oppressive Compliance (Sarbanes Oxley passed in
2002)– “The 90 Day Shot Clock” (term recently coined by
Michael Dell)– Minimal sell side coverage if not a multi-billion
company – Electronic trading has dramatically decreased trading spreads
Companies Are Taking Longer to IPO Because….?
• Companies that are IPO Candidates Can Get All The Capital In the Private Markets– Avoiding all the trouble of being public
• More Difficult For Public Co’s to Attract Talent– Options in a private company an be given at a
significant discount to a preferred financing
Emerging Technologies Are Driving Innovation That Is Disrupting EVERY Industry
The Pace of Darwinian Corporate Evolution Is Accelerating
Corporations Are Acquiring InnovationM&A of VC Backed Private Companies
Corporations Are Ramping Their Private Shares Investing
Source: CB Insights
VC Backed Companies are Acquiring Other VC Backed Companies
# of Acquisitions 2010-2014
Hedge Funds & Mutual Funds Are Ramping Their Private Shares Investing
Source: CB Insights
Later Stage Valuations Are Rising
Years To $1B Valuation Is Decreasing
Source: CB Insights, Aug. 2014
Tech M&A Future Is BrightBalance Sheet Cash of Top 25 Tech Companies
Source: E&Y, Nov. 2014
Tech M&A Is Growing RapidlyYTD 2014 Thru Q3 up 2% vs Total 2013
Source: E&Y, Nov. 2014
Another Classic Sign of a Bubble?“Outfront Media which that owns about 40 billboards along the coveted stretch of the 101 freeway, said that soaring demand for billboards among tech companies have caused billboard prices in the area to more than double since 2011”
- Bloomberg, November 19th, 2014
Conclusions
• Broad stock market valuation metrics indicate that valuations are stretched
• Tech valuations appear reasonable within the context of the broader market
• We are clearly NOT in a tech bubble that is in anyway comparable to ‘99-’00
• The current opportunities for value creation from disruptive tech companies remains at all time highs