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DEFENDINGHUMANITYATSEA
AREDEDICATEDANDPROACTIVESEARCHANDRESCUEOPERATIONSATSEAA“PULLFACTOR”FORMIGRATIONANDDOTHEYDETERIORATEMARITIME
SAFETYINTHECENTRALMEDITERRANEAN?
“Migrantsinboatsaresymptoms,notcauses,oftheproblem”
JovanaArsenijevic/MarcelManzi/RonyZachariah*MédecinssansFrontières,OperationalResearchUnit(LuxOR)68RueDeGasperich,Luxembourg
*Correspondence:[email protected]
(WithcontributionsfromStefanoArgenziano,FedericaZamatto,AureliePonthieu,WilmavanDenBoogaard,MarcoBertotto,ChristopheHebting,PaulDelaunois,SamuelSiebler,CatherinevanOverloop,Alesandro
Siclari,FranciscoDeBartolomo…)
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FOREWORDThisreporthasbeenelaboratedbyMédecinssansFrontières (MSF)andthefindingscorroboratewithtwootherstudiesfocussedonmigrants’mortalityatseaandsearchandrescueactivities:BlamingtheRescuers:criminalizingsolidarityandre-enforcingdeterrenceiBorderdeathsintheMediterranean:Whatwecanlearnfromthelatestdataii.Eachoftheseindependentstudies–usingdifferentmethods-hasconducteddatabasedanalysisleadingtorathersimilarconclusions.SUMMARYBOX
WhatpromptedMSFandotherNGOstogotosea?
• Duetothelackofalternativeoptions,tensofthousandsofpeopleembarkonperilousseajourneysthroughtheCentralMediterraneantoEuropeforvariousreasons.
• Inlate2014,Italyretreatedfromitslarge-scalerescueoperation(MareNostrum)andtheEUreplaceditwiththeFrontexOperationTritonreportedlyleadingtothousandsdyingatsea.
• AsfromMay2015,Non-GovernmentalOrganizations(NGO’s)includingMSFsteppedinwithhumanitarianvesselstofillthisgap.Theywerelaterin2016metwithaccusationsbyFrontex,EUpoliticiansandthemedia.
Whataretheaccusationsagainstthehumanitarianactors?
• Dedicated“SearchandRescueoperationsconductedbythehumanitarianvesselssareservingasa“pullfactor”formigrants/refugeestoattemptdangerousseajourneys“
• “SuchSearchandRescueoperationshavecontributedtoadeteriorationofmaritimesafetybyincreasingdeathsandmissinginthecentralMediterranean”
• NGOsconductingdedicatedandproactivesearchandrescuearecolludingwithsmugglersWhatanalysisispresentedinthisreport?
• Acomparativeanalysisoftrendsinattemptedseacrossingsiiiandadverseseaoutcomes(deaths+missing)inrelationtothreeperiods:theoperationalphaseofMare-Nostrum,theoperationalphaseofTriton-onlyandtheperiodofinvolvementofhumanitarianvesselsinsearescues.
Whatarethekeyfindingsfromthisreport?
• Theyearlypatternofattemptedseacrossings(2014-2016)suggestsa‘temporal/seasonaltrend’ofmigrationwitha9-17%fluctuationperyear.Thisratherlowleveloffluctuationisnotsupportiveofanymajorpullfactorforpeopletakingtosea.
• Trendsinattemptedseacrossingswerejustabout1.6%highersincetheinvolvementofhumanitarianvesselscomparedtotheTriton-onlyperiod.Thisfurthernegatesthesuggestionthatthepresenceofhumanitarianvesselswasamajorincentive(pullfactor)forattemptedseacrossings.
i https://blamingtherescuers.org/ accessed on Aug 31st 2017 ii https://www.law.ox.ac.uk/research-subject-groups/centre-criminology/centreborder-criminologies/blog/2017/03/border-deaths accessed on Aug 31st 2017 iii Attemptedseacrossings:istobeconsideredasthecumulativefigureofthosewhoarrivedtotheItaliancoasts+thosewhowererescuedanddisembarkedtoItaly+thereporteddead/missingatsea+thenumberofthoseinterceptedbytheLibyancoastGuardsatseaandbroughtbacktotheLibyanshores
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• Duringtheactivityofhumanitarianvessels,comparedtotheTriton-onlyperiod,adverseseaoutcomesdecreasedfrom39/1000attemptedseacrossingsto16/1000–a59%improvementinmaritimesafety.
• OvereightintenboatsrescuedbyMSFduringtheirhumanitarianinvolvementwererubber-boatsthatwereovercrowdedupto5-foldtheircapacity.Withsuchoverloading,thesevesselsaretobeconsideredindistressaccordingtoEuropeanstandardsfromthemomenttheylaunch.MovingrescueassetsclosertotheLibyancoastrespondstoapre-emptivehumanitariannecessitytopreventdeaths.
Whatarethemainconclusions?
• Theaccusationslevelledagainstthehumanitarianvesselsarenotsubstantiatedbyevidence.Therewasnomajorincreaseinattemptedseacrossingsduringtheperiodofinvolvementofthehumanitarianvessels(aswouldbeexpectedbythepullfactorhypothesis).
• Importantly,theinvolvementofhumanitarianvesselswasassociatedwithasignificantimprovementinmaritimesafetycomparedtootherperiods.Withouttheseboats,thecountsofdeadandmissingatseawouldlikelyhavebeenconsiderablyhigher.Thepro-activesearchandrescuebyhumanitarianvesselshavethusplayedacrucialandlife-savingrole.
Limitations/Furtherresearch
• Datapresentedinthisreportisobservationaldataanddoesnotdemonstratedirect‘cause-effect’.Thefindingshighlightstatistical‘associations’.Assuch,itisimpossibletoisolatethespecificrole(s)playedbyhumanitarianvessels(vis-à-visotheractors).
• Specificresearchisneededtobetterunderstandthebackgrounddriversofmigrationwhicharecomplexandgobeyondthenaïvediscourseofpull/pushfactors.
Theaccusationthathumanitarianrescuersareapullfactorformigrantsisakintosayingthat“NGOs
workinginarefugeecamparethereasonforrefugees.”
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THE“MUSTKNOW”BEFOREREADINGTHISREPORT
§ Mediterraneansearoutesformigration:o CentralMediterraneanroute: fromNorthAfricatoItalyandMalta.o WesternMediterraneanroute:whichreachesSpainfromNorthWestAfrica,o EasternMediterraneanroute:fromTurkeytoGreece.Figure:RoutesforirregularmigrationthroughtheMediterraneanSea
• Maritimezoneso Internalwaters:anation'sinternalwatersincludewatersonthelandwardsideofthe
nation'sterritorialwaters.Itincludeswaterwayssuchasriversandcanals,andsometimessmallbays.
o Territorialwaters:isabeltofcoastalwatersextending12nauticalmiles(22.2km)fromthebaseline(usuallythemeanlow-watermark)ofacoastalstate.Authorizationfromnationalauthoritiesisneededtoenterthesewaters.
o Contiguouszone:Liesadjacenttotheterritorialseabutupto24nauticalmiles(40,7km)fromthebaselinesfromwhichthebreadthoftheterritorialseaismeasured.Withinthecontiguouszonethecoastalstatemayexercisethecontrolnecessarytoprevent/punishinfringementofitsfiscal,immigration,orsanitarylawswithinitsterritoryorterritorialsea.
o Internationalwaters(HighSeas):includesallpartsoftheseathatarenotincludedintheTerritorialseaorintheinternalwatersofastateFigure:Maritimezones
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§ OperationMare-Nostrum (Period:October2013-Oct2014):wasayear-longnavalandairoperationcommencedbytheItaliangovernmentonOctober18,2013afterthegreatlymediatizedLampedusashipwreckof3rdOctober2013when368migrantsdiedofftheItaliancoast.[1,2]Theoperationaimedtoidentifyboatsindistressandthenlaunch-aproactive“SearchandRescue”operationwithapolicingandanti-smugglingcomponentiv.Significanthumanandfinancialmeanswereplacedatitsdisposal(Assets:onethousandpeople,sixnavalunits,helicoptersequippedwithinfra-redlights,maritimepatrolaircrafts,dronesandcoastalradars.[1]Cost=9million/month).ThankstoMareNostrum,atleast150,000migrantliveswererescued.MareNostrumendedinOctober2014,largelybecauseofalackofEuropeanUnionsupportandbeingconsideredapullfactorformigration.ItwassupersededbyFrontex's“OperationTriton”.
§ Operation(Frontex1,TritonOnlyperiodNov2014-April2015):Tritonisabordersecurity
operationconductedbyFrontex,theEuropeanUnion'sbordersecurityagency.UnlikeMareNostrum,OperationTritonaimedonborderprotectionratherthansearchandrescue,andoperatedclosertotheItaliancoast(Assets:twofixedwingsurveillanceaircraft,threepatrolvessels,twocoastalpatrolvessels,twocoastalboatsandonehelicopter.Cost=4.6million/month).[3]Searescueswererelegatedtoonlywhatisroutinelydemandedbymaritimeobligationswithnodedicatedandproactive“SearchandRescue”operations.TheterminationofMareNostrumhasbeencriticizedforanine-foldincreaseindeathsatseabetween2014and2015,[2].TritonsawanextensionofitsoperationalscopeandbudgetinApril2015(TritonII).HoweverasfromMay2015dedicatedSearchandRescuebythehumanitarianvesselsstartedandweconsiderthepost-Triton1perioddifferentfromaproactiveSARperspective.
§ OperationSophia.EuropeanUnionNavalForceMediterranean(EUNAVFORMedv,Period:May2015todate):TheEU’slaunchedamilitaryoperationknownasSophiaaimsto‘disruptthebusinessmodelofhumansmugglingandtraffickingnetworksintheCentralMediterranean’byeffortstoidentify,captureanddisposeofvesselsusedorsuspectedofbeingusedbysmugglers.Theoperationpriorityisapprehendingsmugglersratherthanrescuingthemigrantsthemselves.OperationSophia’scontributiontoSearchandRescuehasalwaysbeensecondarytotheirintelligenceandanti-smugglingmandate.(Assets:5navalunitsand5patrolaircrafts.Cost1million/Month)[4]
iv Asperofficialsources(http://www.marina.difesa.it/cosa-facciamo/operazioni-concluse/Pagine/mare-nostrum.aspx)theanti-smugglingcomponentofMareNostrumledtoidentifyandhandovertoItalianJudiciaryPolice366allegedsmugglers,15vesselswereinspected/boardedonsuspicionofbeinginvolvedinsmuggling,9shipswereapprehended,ofwhich5weremotherships.v The Mission operates under the UNSecurityCouncilResolution2292(ChapterVIImandate)
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OperationSophiahasthreephases o Phase1(June2015-October2015):surveillanceandassessmentofhumansmugglingand
traffickingnetworksintheMediterranean.o Phase2(October2015todate):board,search,seizeanddivertvesselsonthehighseas
usedforhumansmuggling(Phase2A)andthenmovethesameoperationstoLibyanterritorialwaters(Phase2B).Sophiaiscurrentlyinphase2A.TrainingoftheLibyancoastguardwasmandatedinJune2016
o Phase3:disposalofvesselsandrelatedassets,preferablybeforeuse,andtoapprehendtraffickersandsmugglersonLibyanshores.
§ Humanitarianvesselsinvolvement(PeriodMay2015todate)vi.MSFintroducesthreeboats
(TheArgos,Dignity1andPhoenixincollaborationwithMOAS).MSFsearchandrescueoperationsarecoordinatedbytheItalianMaritimeRescueCoordinationCenter(IMRCC).MSFpatrolsininternationalwatersataround20nauticalmilesoffthecoastofLibyaduringtheday,movingclosertoterritorialwatersifinstructedtodosobytheIMRCCoriftheybecomeawareofaboatindistress.
§ In2016severalotherNGOsjoinedthehumanitarianvesselsmakingatotalofaboutadozenboatsatsea(Seawatch,Seaeye,JugendRettet,Proactiva-Openarms,Bootvlucth,andSavetheChildrenetc.)(Totalcost=unavailable).
§ Intheory,allhumanitarianactorsoperateadedicatedandproactiveSearchandRescueactivity:theirintendedmissionistosavelivesatseaandtheytrytopositiontheiroperationalassetsintheareaswheretheriskoflossoflivesisconsideredhigher.
§ ThesehumanitarianactorsoperateparalleltotheTritonMissionandOperationSophia,thathaveafocusonbordercontrolandanti-smuggling.
vi The Migrants Offshore Aid Station (MOAS) launched its rescue ship “Phoenix” on August 25th 2014 and run operations till October of the same year.
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BACKGROUND• TheItalianstate-led“MareNostrum”,whichwasadedicated“SearchandRescue”operation
endedinOctober2014[1,2].ThiswaslargelyduetoalackofEuropeanUnionsupportandtheoperationbeingconsideredapullfactorformigrants.
• ItwassupersededbyFrontex's“OperationTriton”whosemandateinvolvedcontrollingEuropeanborderswithoutanydedicated“SearchandRescue”.On25thApril2015,thePresidentoftheEuropeanCommission,Jean-ClaudeJunckersaid“ItwasaseriousmistaketobringMareNostrumoperationstoanend.Itcosthumanlives”[5]Asabufferresponse,inMay2015,MédecinsSansFrontières(MSF)launcheditsowndedicatedSearchandRescueoperationswithmedicallyequippedshipshavingacapacityofcarrying400to700people.[6]MSF’sobjectivewastotrytosavehumanlivesatsea,pragmaticallyacceptingavicariousroleofresponsibilitiesofStates’.
• Inlate2016,politiciansandofficialsinEUmember-states(Italy,BelgiumandAustria)madethefollowingallegationsinthemedia[7,8]:1. “DedicatedandProactiveSearchandRescueoperationsconductedbyhumanitarian
vesselsserveasa“pullfactor”formigrants/refugeesleadingtomoremigrantsattemptingdangerousseacrossings”
2. “DedicatedandProactiveSearchandRescueconductedbythesehumanitarianactorshascontributedtoadeteriorationofmaritimesafetybyincreasingdeathsandmissinginthecentralMediterranean”
OBJECTIVESOFTHISREPORT.
ToassessifdedicatedandproactiveSearchandRescueOperationsbyhumanitarianactors(includingMSF)haveservedasapullfactorformigrantsandcontributedtoadeteriorationofmaritimesafety(deathsandmissing)intheCentralMediterranean.
METHODSDesign:Acomparativeanalysisinrelationtoperiodsbeforeandaftertheinvolvementofthehumanitarianvesselsinmaritimerescue.Studyperiods
• Jan2014toOct2014vii:TheMareNostrumperiod• Nov2014toApril2015:TheTriton-onlyperiod• May2015toDec2016viii:MSFandotherhumanitarianorganizationsgetinvolved(the
humanitarianvesselsperiod)
viiThecomparisonofperiodsisbasedondatafromtheInternationalOrganizationforMigration(IOM),whichisavailableconsistentlyfromJanuary2014.AsnoIOM-datawasavailableforNovemberandDecember2013,weusedavailabledatafromtheMaritimeRescueCoordinationCentre(MRCC)andothersources.Whilethesenumbersarelikelytounderestimateattemptedseacrossingsduetounrecordeddeathsormissingpersons,itallowedustoreducetheriskofanon-inclusionbiasincomparingtheoperationalperiodsofMareNostrum,Triton,andhumanitarianvesselsinvolvement.viiiDatacensuratthetimeofanalysiswasDecember2016.
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Datasources(databases):• InternationalOrganisationforMigration(fordataonshipwrecks,diedandmissingfromJan
2014andinterceptionsbytheLibyanCoastGuardin2016)• MaritimeRescueCoordinationCentre,Rome(fordataonrescuesandactors)• MSF(fordataondedicatedSearchandRescuebyMSF)
Datalimitations
• Adverseseaoutcomes(reportedmissinganddeaths)arelikelytobeunderestimatesoftherealsituationasnotalldeathsandmissingarelikelytohavebeenascertained
• “Missingatsea”arelikelytobedeaths.Sincethetrueoutcomeisunascertained,wehaveusedtheterm“adverseseaoutcomes”implyingacombinationofdiedandmissing.
• Alldataonadverseoutcomesandattemptedseacrossingsshouldbeconsideredestimatesasascertainmentbiasislikely.
Dataanalysis
• Trendanalysisusingexcelgraphicsfordatavisualization• Standardizationofadverseseaoutcomes(died+missing)per1000attemptedseacrossingsix• SpatialmappingofshipwrecksandrescuesusingGeographicInformationSystem• Estimationofdifferenceinproportionsandrelativerisksasappropriate
RESULTS1. GeographicrepresentationofshipwrecksanddeathscentralMediterraneanmigrantroute.
§ Atotalof225adverseseaincidents(includingshipwrecksandothereventsleadingtodeathandmissingatsea)wereregisteredbyIOMduringtheperiod2014-2016.Adverseseaincidentshereimplyalltypesofboatsirrespectiveofsize(rubberdinghy’swoodenboatsincluded).ThemediannumberofadverseseaincidentspermonthduringMare-Nostrumwas4,duringTriton-onlywas3andduringtheinvolvementofhumanitarianvesselsitwas7.
Figure1:Cumulativeadverseseaincidentsandrelateddeaths/missing(January2014-December2016)–pleaseclickonPDFinsertbelow.
Fig_1_sea_incidents_tot_A1_170630_V3.pdf
Observations/conclusions§ ThereisadiffusespatialdistributionofadverseseaincidentsimplyingthattheentireCentral
Mediterraneanisaffected.§ DuringtheMare-Nostrum(purplecircles)andTriton-only(redcircles)periods,therewasa
clusteringofincidentstowardsthemiddleoftheCentralMediterranean.Thenumbersof
ixAttemptedseacrossings:istobeconsideredasthecumulativefigureofthosewhoarrivedtotheItaliancoasts+thereporteddead/missingatsea+thenumberofthoseinterceptedbytheLibyancoastGuardsatseaandbroughtbacktotheLibyanshoresx A larger deployment of humanitarian vessels may have led to an increased ability to witness the occurrence of smaller scale events, which would have gone otherwise unnoticed.
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deaths(sizeofcircles)duringthesameperiodswerealsolargerwhichmayimplylargerboat-capacityandsize.
§ Duringthehumanitarianvesselsperiod,mostoftheincidents(circles)aresmallandlikelytoimplysmallerboatcapacityandsize(smallernumbersofpeoplereporteddeadormissing)x.ClusteringofincidentsisseenclosertotheLibyancoast(thecontiguouszone).
§ ThesefindingsmayberelatedtotheimpactofOperationSOPHIAPhase2A(HighSeas),wheresmugglerscannolongerrecoversmugglingvesselsonthehighseas,renderingthemalesseconomicoptionforthesmugglingbusiness.Thus,theymayincreasinglyoptforsingle-usagerubberboatassetswhicharelessrobustandmorepronetosinking.[9,10]SuchboatsarebeingbulkshippedfromChina.[11]Anecdotalreportssuggestdecreasingqualityoftherubberboatsused,anincreasedtrendofmassivelaunchingofseveralvesselsatthesametime,andlessfuel,foodandwaterprovidedonboard.
§ ThepresenceofhumanitarianSearchandRescueassetsclosetotheLibyancoastmayalsohaveaffectedthedynamicofnewsmugglerpracticesbutspecificdatainthisregardislacking.
2. Accusation1:IsdedicatedSearchandRescueoperationsa“pullfactor”formigrants/
refugees”
Inordertoassessthe‘pullfactor’hypotheseswefirstvisualizetheseasonaltrendinmigrationperyearbetween2014and2016(Figure2.1).
BecausemigrationisindeedseasonalasseeninFigure2.1,withmorearrivalsinsummerthaninwinter,otherthingsbeingequal,wecompareequivalentmonthsstratifiedbytypeofseaoperationstoadjustforseasonality.ThuswecomparetotalnumberofattemptedseacrossingsduringtheTriton-onlyperiod(November2014–May2015),toequivalentperiodsofMareNostrum(November2013–May2014)andhumanitarianvesselsinvolvementperiods(November2015–May2016).
Ifthe‘pullfactorhypothesis’istrueweshouldexpectmoreattemptedseacrossingsduringtheMareNostrumandthehumanitarianvesselsperiodsthanduringtheTriton-onlyperiod.
x A larger deployment of humanitarian vessels may have led to an increased ability to witness the occurrence of smaller scale events, which would have gone otherwise unnoticed.
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Figure2.1:Trendsin“allattemptedseacrossingstoassessseasonaltrends”(Periods:Mare-Nostrum,Triton-onlyandhumanitarianvesselsinvolvementandbyyear2014-2016)
Datasource–IOM.AllattemptedSeacrossings=Died+Missing+arrived+RescuedbyLibyancoastguard
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Observations• Theoveralltrendofattemptedseacrossingsbetween2014and2016issimilar.• Thereisarelativelylowleveloffluctuationintotalnumbersofattemptedseacrossingsby
yearwhichsupportsatemporalpictureratherthanoneinfluencedbythepresenceofseaoperations:
o 2014–173218o 2015–156249Fluctuationof9-17%using2014asreferenceo 2016–202297
Figure2.2Trendsin“allattemptedseacrossings”comparingequivalentperiodsofMare-Nostrum,Triton-onlyandNGOinvolvement(humanitarianvessels)toadjustforseasonalvariationsIfdedicatedSARoperationsencouragemorepeopletogotosea,wewouldexpectmoreattemptedseacrossingsduringMare-NostrumandthehumanitarianvesselsinvolvementperiodscomparedtotheTriton-onlyperiod.
Datasources:DeathsattheBorders:DatabasefortheSouthernEU(fordeathsNov-Dec2013)
IOMfordeathsandmissingfromJan2014
ArrivalsdatafromUNHCRexceptforNov/Dec2013wheretotalrescuesfromMRCCwasused–likely
underestimate.
LibyanCoastGuardrescuedata–IOM
Observations§ TheattemptedseacrossingsintheTriton-onlyperiodwas44%higherthanduringMare-
Nostrum.DuringthehumanitarianvesselsperiodcomparedtotheTritononlyattemptedseacrossingswasjust1.6%higher.ThisshowsthatthereisnoevidencetosuggestthatthepresenceofhumanitarianvesselsperformingproactiveandanddedicatedSARisassociatedwithanysignificantpullfactor.
GeneralConclusions• Thepatternofattemptedseacrossingssuggestsalargelytemporal/seasonalmigration
pattern.Thetypeofseaoperationsper-sedoesnotseemtodetertheoveralltrendofmigration.
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• Thefactthatattemptedseacrossingswerejustabout1.6%higherinthehumanitarianvesselsperiodcomparedtotheTriton-onlyperiodsuggeststhatthereisnoevidenceofNGOsbeingassociatedwithbeingapullfactor.
• Datasuggestthatpeoplearethusattemptingseacrossingsirrespectiveofthetypeofseaoperations.Driversofmigration(conflict,prosecution,drought,povertyetc.)arelikelytobeplayingamoreimportantrolethanthetypeofsearchandrescueoperations.Theallegationsbuiltagainsthumanitariansearchandrescueeffortsarenotevidence-basedandfailtoconsiderthebackgroundcomplexityofmigrationdynamics.
• Thepull/pushfactorargumentsthusignorethecomplexityofmigratorymovementsandessentialaspectssuchas
o Thefactthatmigratoryjourneysarefragmentedandnotlinearo Thatmultiplefactorsimpactthedecisiontomoveandthatmigrantsoftenhavevery
littleknowledgeofEuropeanpolicieso Thatpeoplehaveveryrarelyaclearplanregardingtheirfinaldestinationo ThatthemajorityofpeoplecrossingtheseatoEuropehavetransitedthroughLibya
becauseoflackofalternatives.3. Accusation2:IsdedicatedSearchandRescueoperationsbythehumanitarianvessels
contributingtoadeteriorationofmaritimesafetyintheCentralMediterranean”Figure3.1.Adverseseaoutcomes(diedandmissing)standardizedby1000attemptedSeaCrossings(periods:MareNostrum,Triton-onlyandhumanitarianvesselsinvolvement)
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Table3.1.Dataonadverseseaoutcomes(diedandmissing)standardizedby1000attemptedSeaCrossings(periods:MareNostrum,Tritonandhumanitarianvesselsinvolvement) Period Arrivalsto
Italyandallrescued1
TotalDied&Missing
Attemptedsea
crossings2
Died&Missing/1000attemptedSeacrossings2
MareNostrum Jan14-Oct14 154073 3048 157121 19Triton-only Nov14April15 42255 1730 43985 39Humanitarianvessels
May15-Dec16
325343 5315 330658 16
1IncludesarrivalsinItalyandrescues/interceptionsdonebytheLibyanCoastGuard2Attemptedseacrossings=ArrivalsinItaly+RescuedbyLibyanCoastGuard+DiedandMissing3Standardizedusingtotalattemptedseacrossingsduringtherespectiveperiods(Totaldiedandmissing/arrivals+rescuedbyLibyanCoastGuard+died+missing*1000)Observations• Thestandardizedadverseseaoutcomes(deaths+missingper1000attemptedseacrossings)
increasedby2.1foldfollowingwithdrawalofMare-NostrumandaretreatfromdedicatedSAR(Tritonperiod).
• Inthesubsequenthumanitarianvesselsperiodtheseadverseseaoutcomesimprovedsignificantly(59%decreasefromTritonperiod,Relativerisk0.41,95%CI0.23-0.72,P=0.002).Publichealthimpact:Triton-onlyperiod: 1adverseseaoutcome*forevery26attemptedSeacrossingsHumanitarianvessels: 1adverseseaoutcomeforevery63attemptedSeacrossings
(*adverseseaoutcome=death+missing)
Conclusions§ Theperiodwiththehumanitarianvesselswasassociatedwitha59%improvementin
maritimesafetycomparedtotheTriton-onlyperiod.Thereisalsoa16%improvementinrelationtotheMare-Nostrumperiod.
§ Thefactthat5315deathsstilloccurredin2016impliesthattherearepersistenthumanitariangapsinSearchandRescueoperationsintheabsenceofsafealternatives,peoplewillcontinuetolosetheirlives.Maritimesafetyneedstobefurtherimprovedandsotoointroductionofsafeandlegalchannelsformigrationtocovertheseunacceptabledeaths.
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Figure3.2.RelativecontributionofNGOstorescuesmadeinthecentralMediterraneanduring2016?
Source:MaritimeRescueCoordinationCommittee,Rome.
Observations.§ TherelativecontributionofNGOStoSearchandRescuein2016(Redline)hasincreased
significantlyfromquarter1toQuarter4of2016(ChiSquareforlineartrendP<0.0001)
Table3.2.RelativecontributionofhumanitarianvesselsseaoperationstorescuesmadeinthecentralMediterraneanduring2016 Rescuesin2016a
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total %ItalianCoastguard 6931 10795 8923 9226 35875 20ItalianNavy 6676 10360 16323 4592 37951 21Frontex 1028 5107 4309 3172 13616 8Merchantships 555 6661 2813 3859 13888 8NGOsincludingMSF 323 10563 17267 18653 46806 26Sophiab 3510 7531 10476 8396 29913 17Total 178049aDataonrescuesbefore2016stratifiedbyactorswasnotavailable
bIncludesothermilitaryboats
Observations.§ 46,806(26%)rescues(roughlyoneinthree)wereconductedbyhumanitarianvesselsboatsand
theywerethemostimportantsingleactorin2016.MSFdid21,224oftheserescues
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GeneralConclusions
§ Datafrom3.1and3.2aboverebutstheaccusationbypoliticiansandthemediathatdedicatedSearchandRescueoperationshavecontributedtodeteriorationinmaritimesafety.Onthecontrarytheyhaveplayedacruciallife-savingrole.
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FOCUSONMSFFigure3.3a.Trendin“typeofboats”and“peoplerescued”byMSFduring2015and2016.
Observation
• ThereisanincreasedtrendinnumbersofrubberboatsandpeoplerescuedbyMSFin2016.
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Table3.3.“Typeofboats”and“peoplerescued”byMSFduring2015and2016.
Boattype Numberofboatsn(%)
Peoplerescuedn(%)
Averagepeople/boat
2015
Rubber 97(78) 10510(52) 108
Wooden 28(22) 9389(48) 335
Total 125 19899
2016
Rubber 128(84) 15694(78) 122
Wooden 25(16) 4395(22) 176
Total 153 20089
Observations• 153boatswererescuedbyMSFin2016comparedto125in2015(a22%increaseinrescueof
boatsindistress).In2016therewerealsomoreboatsbutalmostthesameoverallnumbersof
peoplerescued(19899in2015comparedto20089in2016).
• 2016sawa6%increaseinnumbersofrubberboatsrescued(78%to84%)butthenumberof
peoplefoundinrubberboatsin2016was26%higherthanin2015.
• Theaveragenumberofpeopleinrubberboatsalsoincreasedby13%(to122/boat)in2016
(comparedto2015).Asthecapacityofrubberboatsisestimatedat25-60persons(fora8-11
meterboat),estimatedoverloadingis2to5fold!.Theserubberboatsarealsoconsideredless
robustandlikelytodeflaterenderingthemaseriousriskforthoseonboard.[12]
Figure3.3b.TypeofboatsandnumbersrescuedbyMSF
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Observations
• TheRelativeRiskofbeingrescuedbyMSFinarubberboatin2016comparedtoawoodenboat
was1.48(95%CI=1.46-1.50,P<0.001)–implyinga48%increasedprobabilityoffindingpeople
inrubberboatsatthetimeofrescuein2016.
Possiblereasonsforincreasedprobabilityoffindingpeopleinrubberboatsin2016
§ OperationSOPHIAPhase2A(HighSeas),andLibyancoastguardactivitiessincemid-2016[7]
meantthatsmugglerscannolongerrecoverwoodenorothersmugglingvesselsonthehigh
seas,renderingthemalesseconomicoptionforthesmugglingbusiness.Smugglersmay
thushaveoptedforsingle-usedisposableassets(rubberboats).Thiswasalsoreportedby
EUNAVORMED[10].Rubberboats(madeinChina)areavailableat300-800USDon
Alibaba.com.[12]• DestructionofwoodenboatsbyOperationSophiamayalsohavereducedthegeneral
availabilityofwoodenboats.[7,10]
• ThepresenceofSARassetsclosertotheLibyancoastmayalsohaveinfluencedsmuggler
practicesbutwehavenospecificdatatosubstantiatethisclaim.
Humantraffickersareusingrubberdinghieswhichareavailableforafewhundred
dollarshttps://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/High-Quality-Refugee-Boat-Inflatable-
Pontoons_60606629063.html
AdvertonrefugeeboatsMadeinChinaonAlibaba.com.https://www.alibaba.com/product-
detail/High-Quality-Refugee-Boat-Inflatable-Pontoons_60606629063.html
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3.4.IsgeographicpositioningofMSFclosetotheLibyancoastjustified?Figure3.4a.Geographicrepresentationofadverseseaincidentsanddeaths/missing(May2015-
December2016)–pleaseclickonPDFinsertbelow.(Totalnumberofincidentsatsea=162)
Fig_3.4a_sea_incidents_SAR_A1_170630_V3.pdf
Figure3.4b.GeographicrepresentationofMSFrescues(May2015-December2016)–pleaseclickon
PDFinsertbelow.
Fig 3.4b. MSF_rescue_A1_170703.pdf
Observations
§ ThereisadiffusespatialdistributionofadverseseaincidentsintheentireCentral
MediterraneanwithclusteringclosetotheLibyanborderparticularlyaroundAzZawyahand
Tripoli.
§ Of162seaincidents,67(41%)werelocatedinareaswhereMSFconductedrescues.ThisimpliesthatMSFisoperatinginareasofhigherdangerandimminentlossoflives.
§ Thefactthatincidentsarealsohappeninginhighseas(Fig3.4a)stillraisesaquestionof
geographicequityandtheneedtoconsiderrationalizationofsearchandrescueoperations
withotherpartners.
Conclusions• MSFdedicatedsearchandrescuesareclusteredaroundthesameareaofconsiderable
clusteringofadverseseaincidents(includingshipwrecks).Currentpositioningwouldthus
maximizethe“preventiveeffect”ondeaths.• Furthermore,84%ofboatsin2016wererubberboatsthatwereovercrowdedtoupto5
foldtheircapacity.Withinthisback-drop,EUNAVFORMEDhasrecognizedthatmigrant
vesselsaretobeconsideredindistressaccordingtointernationalconventionsfromthe
momenttheylaunch.[7,10]MovingNGOSARassetsclosertotheLibyancoastthusrespondstoapre-emptivehumanitarianimperative.
20
GENERALCONCLUSION/KEYMESSAGES
HavehumanitarianvesselsincludingNGOslikeMSFbeen“pullfactor”formigration?
• ThepatternofattemptedseacrossingsduringMare-Nostrum,Triton-onlyandhumanitarian
vesselsperiodssuggestsatemporal/seasonalmigration.Ineffect,peopleareattempting
seacrossingsandarenotdeterredbythetypeofseaoperationspresent.“Pushfactors”or
driversofmigrationsuchasconflict,prosecution,droughtandpovertyarelikelytobe
playinganimportantrolewithinacomplexmilieuofotherfactorsassociatedwithmigration.
• Ifthe‘pullfactorhypothesis’hadgrounds,thetotalnumberofattemptedseacrossings
shouldbeconsiderablyhigherduringthehumanitarianvesselsperiodcomparedwiththe
equivalentperiodofTriton-only.Thiswasnotthecase,negatingthehypothesisthatthe
dedicatedsearchandrescuewasthemainincentive(pullfactor)formigrants/refugees.
• ContinuedincreaseinmigrationintheWesternMediterraneanrouteby46%(datanot
presentedinthisreport)wheretherearenodedicatedSearchandRescueoperationsadds
supporttothisthinking.
HasdedicatedSearchandRescueoperationscontributedtoadeteriorationinmaritimesafety?
• Thehumanitarianvesselsinvolvementwasassociatedwithasignificantimprovementin
maritimesafetycomparedtotheTriton-onlyperiod.Standardizedadverseseaoutcomes
(deaths+missing)fellsignificantlyfrom39/1000attemptedseacrossingsto16/1000during
Triton–a59%improvementinmaritimesafety.
• Thehumanitarianboatsalsorescued46,806people(acorollarymanneroflookingatthis
wouldbetoconsiderthem“averteddeaths”).Withouttheseboats,thenumbersofdeath
andmissingatsea”wouldhavebeenconsiderablyhigher.
IsthepositioningofMSFboatsclosetotheLibyancoastjustified?
• Of162adverseseaincidentsthathappeningduringthehumanitarianvesselsinvolvement
period,67(41%)werelocatedintheMSFpositionedarea(aroundAzZawyahandTripoli).
• In2016,thegreatmajority(84%)ofboatsrescuedbyMSFwereovercrowdedrubberboats
floatingwithaloadthatwas5foldtheircapacity.Withsuchdegreeofoverloading,migrant
vesselsaretobeconsideredindistressaccordingtointernationalconventions[13]fromthe
momenttheylaunch.MovingrescueshipsclosertotheLibyancoastthusrespondstoapre-
emptivehumanitariannecessity.
21
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