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Debbie NixonGraphic Design

Two Column Grid Spread

12 Frost Bite Magazine

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The Freezer Defrosts

Dramatic melting of sea ice due to global warmingis having a major impact own the polar region...

Arctic sea ice is set to reach its lowest ever recorded extent as early as this weekend, in “dramatic changes” signalling that man-made global warming is having a major impact on the polar region.

With the melt happening at an unprecedented rate of more than

100,000 sq km a day, and at least a week of further melt expected

before ice begins to reform ahead of the northern winter, satellites

are expected to confirm the record – currently set in 2007 – within

days.

“Unless something really unusual happens we will see the

record broken in the next few days. It might happen this weekend,

almost certainly next week,” Julienne Stroeve, a scientist at the US

National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colorado,

told the Guardian.

“In the last few days it has been losing 100,000 sq km a day, a

record in itself for August. A storm has spread the ice pack out,

opening up water, bringing up warmer water. Things are definitely

changing quickly.”

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Image of artic polar bear

“Only 15 years ago I didn’t expect to see such dramatic changes - no one did”

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Because ice thickness, volume, extent and area are all measured

differently, it may be a week before there is unanimous agreement

among the world’s cryologists (ice experts) that 2012 is a record

year. Four out of the nine daily sea ice extent and area graphs kept

by scientists in the US, Europe and Asia suggest that records have

already been broken. “The whole energy balance of the Arctic is

changing. There’s more heat up there. There’s been a change of

climate and we are losing more seasonal ice. The rate of ice loss is

faster than the models can capture [but] we can expect the Arctic

to be ice-free in summer by 2050,” said Stroeve.

“Only 15 years ago I didn’t expect to see such dramatic changes

no one did. The ice-free season is far longer now.Twenty years ago

it was about a month. Now it’s three months. Temperatures last

week in the Arctic were 14C, which is pretty warm.” Scientists at

the Danish Meteorological Institute, the Arctic Regional Ocean

Observing System in Norway and others in Japan have said the ice

is very close to its minimum recorded in 2007. The University of

Bremen, whose data does not take into account ice along a 30km

coastal zone, says it sees ice extent below the all-time record low

of 4.33m sq km recorded in September 2007.

Ice volume in the Arctic has declined dramatically over the

past decade. The 2011 minimum was more than 50% below that

of 2005. According to the Polar Science Centre at the University

of Washington it now stands at around 5,770 cubic kilometres,

compared with 12,433 cu km during the 2000s and 6,494 cu km

in 2011. The ice volume for 31 July 2012 was roughly 10% below

the value for the same day in 2011. A new study by UK scientists

suggests that 900 cu km of summer sea ice has disappeared from

the Arctic Ocean over the past year.

The consequences of losing the Arctic’s ice coverage for the

summer months are expected to be immense. If the white sea

ice no longer reflects sunlight back into space, the region can be

expected to heat up even more than at present. This could lead to

an increase in ocean temperatures with unknown effects on weath-

er systems in northern latitudes.In a statement, a Greenpeace

spokesman said: “The disappearing Arctic still serves as a stark

warning to us all. Data shows us that the frozen north is teetering

on the brink. The level of ice ‘has remained far below average’ and

appears to be getting thinner, leaving it more vulnerable to future

melting. The consequences of further rapid ice loss at the top of

the world are of profound importance to the whole planet. This is

not a warning we can afford to ignore.”

Longer ice-free summers are expected to open up the Arctic

ocean to oil and mining as well as to more trade. This year at least

20 vessels are expected to travel north of Russia between north-

ern Europe and the Bering straits. Last week a Chinese icebreaker

made the first voyage in the opposite direction.

“Every one of the 56,000 Inuits in Greenland have had to adapt

to the retreat of the ice,” said Carl-Christian Olsen, president of

the Inuit Circumpolar Council in Nuuk, Greenland. “The perma-

frost is melting and this is jeopardising roads and buildings. The

coastline is changing, there is more erosion and storms, and there

are fewer mammals like polar bears”.

More remarkably, we saw distinct human footprints on another

ice floe. We are possibly 500 miles from any habitation, so whose

footprints were they? Where had they come from? How old were

they? Had the polar bears got whoever it was? The consensus

view is that they could be a year old on a floe that has circulated

hundreds of miles and travelled perhaps from as far as Greenland

or Svalbard. They could be those of a seal hunter or a fisherman.

We are now less than 500 miles from the north pole and the

temperature is dropping fast. The plan is to press deeper into the

ice to find a good-sized floe where the three scientists, based in

Cambridge, Scotland and the US, can set up their instruments to

measure ice thickness, wave action and how the waves change as

they penetrate the ice.

Nick Toberg from the University of Cambridge is working with

Ettiore Pedretti, an engineer from the Scottish Marine Institute

in Oban, to see how waves get under the pack ice and break it up.

The impact of the waves on the rapid acceleration of ice loss in

the Arctic is a little understood area and they have brought a buoy

full of instruments which they will test. Next year they want to

return with 25 more buoys to monitor wave action over many.

kilometres. The data could be vital to understanding how waves

expose more water to solar radiation and allow the ice to melt

Image of artic polar bear