Arab Governments:The Quest for Security

         

         

         

         

         

         

Lecturer—Lieutenant Colonel Mike Meyer

• Undergrad. Degree —Latin American History

• Masters—Nat. Sec. Affairs (Mid-East) and Arabic

• Middle East and Political Military Affairs Specialist

• Intelligence Officer—Aviation and Political Affairs

• Analyst and Briefer for Commander, USCENTCOM

• Political Advisor to Commander, USCENTAF

• Air Attaché, U.S. Embassy, Damascus, Syria

• AF Recruiting Squadron Commander, Maxwell AFB

Bagram Air BaseAfghanistan

Reminders of the RegimeBaghdad, Iraq

Agenda

• Common Characteristics of Security-Conscious Arab States

• What Means Do Arab States

Employ to Ensure Security?

• What are the Implications for

the Region?

No Truly Free Arab Countries• 0 of 22 Arab Governments are Truly Freely Elected

– UN Human Development Report, 2002, Identifies 3 Deficit Areas:• Freedom, Knowledge, and Women’s Participation

– Assumption of Power and Governance Based on Patronage and Loyalty– Contradicts Trend of Democratization in Other Parts of Developing World

During the Past Few Decades—L. America, Africa, Far East, E. Europe

• Syria: Freedom House--7/7 Political Rights; 7/7 Civil Rights– Pres. Bashar Al-Asad Confirmed by Referendum; Son of Hafiz Al-Asad– Constitution Changed Overnight in Wake of Father’s Death– Parliament is Merely a Rubber Stamp

• Egypt: 6/7 Political and Civil Rights– President Mubarak in Power Since 1981– No True Opposition Allowed

• Saudi Arabia: 7/7 Pol. and 7/7 Civ. Rights– Saud Family has Ruled Monarchy since 1932– No Parliament and 90-member, appointed Consultative Council– No Political Parties Allowed

• Qatar: 6/7 Pol. and 6/7 Civ. Rights– Current Ruler Overthrew Father in 1995– Prime Minister from Same Family– No Parliament and 35-member, appointed Cons. Council

• Jordan: 6/7 Pol. and 5/7 Civ. Rights– Monarchy with Succession From Father to Son– 2 Chambers of Parliament, One of which is Elected– Political Parties are Allowed with Limited Participation

• Few Bright Spots—Limited Political Liberalization: Morocco, Bahrain, and Kuwait

• Jury Still Out on Iraq, but Progress is Being Made—Only Because the Coalition Overthrew Saddam and is Present. Key will be Whether Populace will Put Up with Turbulence Associated w/ Lack of Security as Democratic Processes are Institutionalized

Common Characteristics of Security Conscious Arab States

• With Exception of Lebanon and the Palestinian Territories, Arab States Remarkably Stable For Three Decades + :

– King Hussein, Jordan, More than 40 Years– Hafiz Al-Asad, Syria, 30 Years– Hosni Mubarak, Egypt, 23 Years– Saddam Hussein, Iraq, Almost 25 Years

• Authoritarian Governments Dominate the Arab World– Many Leaders Live in Fear– Rulers Fear Political Reform as a Catalyst for Instability

• Arab Countries are Often Essentially Police States with Relatively Large Security Services and Militaries—Armed Forces are Not Servants of the People, But Served by the People (Corruption)

• Despite Rich Cultural Composition and Histories, Civil Society is Often Stifled or Closely Monitored • Large Portions or Majority of Population Often Cut Out or Impoverished—No Vehicles for Upward Mobility

What Means Do Arab States Employ to Ensure Security?

• Co-opting and Promoting Particular (and often Minority) Ethnic Groups, as well as Attaining the Loyalty of Key Tribes

– Syria—Alawis from the Coastal Mountains– Iraq—Sunnis from the Sunni Triangle/Tikritis– Jordan—Bedouin Families from East Bank

• Controlled Demonstrations and Protests— Pressure Valves

• Promotion of “Military” Societies—Most Arab Leaders Either Rose Up through the Military or Closely Identify Themselves with the Military

• Numerous and Overlapping Intelligence Agencies—More Eyes the Better!

• Dual Militaries with Simultaneous External Defense and Internal Protection Missions. In Fact, #1 Mission is Actually Regime Protection

Implications for the Region

• Economic:– Unless Oil/Natural Gas Revenues High, Development is Stifled As Bright Young People Emigrate or Are Forced to Settle for Jobs Beneath Capabilities

• Welfare States Like Saudi Arabia are Threatened by a Lack of Opportunity

– Defense Budgets are Disproportionately High, Taking Money From Civilian Industry

• Military/Security:– Sycophants, Often from Particular Ethnic Groups, Advance Before Capable Leaders– Unit Morale is Negatively Affected as Personnel are “Watched”– Centralized Control Slows Speed at which Operations are Executed– Jealousies Hurt Cooperation Between Individual Services– Leaders Chase High-Profile Military Items vs. Most Practical Ones

• Social/Political:– Political Cronies and Loyalist Leaches Attain High-Level Positions– Due to a Lack of Legal Outlets for Frustration, Extremism on the Rise

• Militant Islam on the Rise

– More and More Band-Aid Fixes Needed to Hold Together Societies