Edward H Allison

University of East Anglia, UKand

WorldFish Center Penang, Malaysia

Photo: Mehadi, WorldFish - Bangladesh

Aquaculture in a changing climate

Aquculture TriennialNashville, Tennessee, USA

22nd February 2013

Washington DC last weekend…

Percent of US citizens who believe global warming has already begun

McCright & Dunlap (2011) The Sociological Quarterly 52

Democrat Independent Republican

Gallup poll trends on % of US public support for questions about global warming

Global financial crisis

Overview• What are the predictions for future climate?• Evidence of recent climate change?• How is the aquaculture sector impacted?• How can aquaculture adapt? • Does aquaculture have a role in climate

change mitigation?• What research is needed?

Possible climate futures…World Bank (2012), Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4⁰C Warmer World

Must Be Avoided. Washington DC

Climate change will impact on water available for aquaculture

Sea level rise faster than originally predicted by IPCCRahmsdorf et al., (2012) Env. Res. Lett.

IPCC predictions

Measured

Satellite

Gauge

Extreme events: Globally, hurricanes are getting stronger but not more

frequent – but regional patterns differ. Same for droughts and floods

Maue (2011) Geophys. Res. Lett. (data updated 31/12/12)

Is current climte chngeAre anthropogenic GHG emissions the main cause of recent climate change?

An 800,000 yr time series of CO2 concentrations from Antarctic ice cores (NOAA, 2009)

Climate change impacts on aquaculture systems

Source: Pickering et al 2011

Pickering et al (2011) Vulnerability of aquaculture in the tropical Pacific to climate change, In Bell et al. SPC.

Human Activity

CO2 emissions

Other GHGs

> CO2 inoceans

Ocean acidification

< calcificationin shellfishAtmospheric warming

and changing weather patterns

Changing Ocean Currents

Rising SST

Sea level rise

More extreme weather events

Reduced oxygenation

Increased disease outbreaks

Changes in natural spat-fall

Spread of pests and alien species

Increased losses and direct damage to aquacultureinfrastructure

< growth and production> mortality≠ recruitment

Other drivers of change: population, growth, trade

Increased costs of production

Changes in production volume and value

adaptation in system management, transportation and marketing

Coastal floodingExtreme rainfallHigh winds and waves

Shift sites of production; grow different species

Changes in PP and food webs

Climate change and mollusc aquaculture (Allison et al., 2011)

Seawater warming and its implications for aquaculture: increased risks from disease?

e.g. PSP agent Alexandrium catenella in Puget Sound (Moore et al., 2008)

Not all climate change impacts are negativeHigher temperatures associated with enhanced recruitment to scallop

fisheries in the North Irish Sea (Shepherd et al., 2010)

Can current and anticipated demands for fish and seafood be met in a changing climate?

• World population to increase to 9.3 Billion by 2050

• Fish provides protein, minerals and vitamins (17kg/cap/yr)

• Marine capture fisheries close to maximum capacity

• Aquaculture growing faster than population in the last 30 years, specially in Asia

Modelling framework20 countries with LMEs producing 80% of global catch

Climate change and reduction fisheries

Fishmeal

+3% in 2050

Conclusions of the study• CC and marine fisheriesCC and marine fisheries ~ Food fish production +6.5%, Fishmeal +3%

by 2050

• Aquaculture:Aquaculture: Likely to produce enough fish to maintain and increase current consumption if recent trends in feed technology continue. FIFO would need to reduce to 50% of current.

• Capture fisheries: Capture fisheries: management efficiencymanagement efficiency also required to secure fish for direct consumption and for feed (likely).

• Aquaculture impacts could be transferred from fisheries to terrestrial commodities (e.g soya).

Merino et al (2012) Can aquaculture meet global seafood demand in changing climate? Global Environmental Change 22

Adapting aquaculture systems to change: a farm level view

Exposure + Sensitivity = Potential Impacts (IPCC, 2001)

Potential Impacts + Adaptive Capacity = Vulnerability

Daw et al (2008) for FAO

Adaptation and mitigation decisions under uncertaintye.g. Shrimp or rice in low-lying coastal Asia?

Photos: Mike Lusmore, WorldFish

A value-chain perspective on CC adaptation in aquaculture

Production valueFishing/AQ operationsCoastal infrastructure

IMPACT ON:

TECHNICALADAPTATION

INSTITUTIONALADAPTATION

VALUECHAIN

Sustainable seafood information

Energy efficient transport & storageProcessing methods

Energy saving technologiesEarly Warning SystemsFlood defensesFarmed species choices

Low carbon certificationEmissions accountingTariffs, taxes, subsidies

Weather linked insuranceRegional agreementsCommunity adaptation funds

CLIMATE CHANGE DRIVERS

Global warming potential

Aquaculture Production Phase

Hatchery / Wild stocking

Processing

Distribution

Fertilizers, chemicals

Capture fisheries,agricultural

products and wastes

Direct energy(light, heat, pumps etc)

Consumption

Waste Disposal

Feedproduction

Aquaculture’s contributions to global warming and it’s potential for mitigation

Life cycle analysis

Example: Salmon v. Tilapia

Salmon

Global Warming potential: 2160 kg CO2e / t

Contributing factors: feed (94 %) farm level energy use (3 %) smolts (3 %)

Pelletier et al. 2009

Tilapia (lake-based)

Global Warming potential: 1520 kg CO2e / t

Contributing factors: feed (92 %) farm level energy use (3 %) fingerlings (5 %)

Pelletier & Tyedmers 2010

27

Aquaculture compared with wild fish and other foods

From Hall et al., (2011) Blue Frontiers. WorldFish Center

Emission Reduction Opportunities – Farm Level

Reduction of energy and fuel use

Renewable energy use and generation

Feed substitution

Adoption of best management practises:Efficient conversion of feed to animal biomassImproved soil, water and waste management

Mitigation at the landscape level

• Integrated aquaculture-agriculture systems: use of aquaculture wastes (i.e. sludge) to form carbon stocks in agricultural soils

• Mangrove-friendly aquaculture (carbon sequestration rate of mangroves: 139 gC m-2 yr-1) => organic shrimp farming?

Synergy with adaptation measures:

Landscape-based mitigation can also reduce climate change vulnerability and promote adaptation (e.g. coastal protection)

Coastal wetlands and seagrass beds sequester more carbon per unit area than land based systems

Mangroves 139

Climate change research at

Sessions: Climate change and shellfish diseasesAcidification and shellfish aquaculture

Individual talks and posters: Climate change and bio-invasionsIntegrated multi-trophic aquacultureClimate vulnerability and adaptation (Florida,

West Africa)Mangroves and carbon markets

Related fundamental research: Hypoxia, thermal tolerance, salinity change, feeds

Climate change and aquaculture research needs• Identifying vulnerable people, places and farming

systems• Breeding and species selection for future climates• Cost-benefit analysis of adaptation options• Low-carbon farming systems• Climate-proofing value chains

Key messagesImpacts• complex, uncertain but already becoming evident• some winners some losers (equity and ethics considerations)

Adaptation• addresses both threats and opportunities• mostly ‘no regrets’• many businesses already adapting but little planned adaptation

Mitigation • aquaculture can help lower carbon footprint of the human diet• build ‘blue carbon’ stocks through landscape management

Thanks!

John CookseyJay ParsonsSandy Shumway

Anne Delaporte, Denis Hellebrandt, Neil Adger

Malcolm BeveridgeMike PhillipsSuan Pheng KamMarie-Caroline BadjeckSteve Hall

Manuel Barange Gorka MerinoNick Dulvy

Cassandra de YoungDoris Soto