April 30,2004Space Solar Power Workshop1 Peak Oil, Gas, Coal, Food & The Great Race to Clean Global...

April 30,2004 Space Solar Power Workshop 1

Peak Oil, Gas, Coal, Food & The Great Race to

Clean Global Baseload Power -Space Solar Power

Atlanta Peak Oil Meeting

April 9, 2008 Atlanta, GA

Darel Preble chair, Space Solar Power Workshop www.sspi.gatech.edu


The US is not leading the Great Race


But we could be!!


I hope you have all read the National Space Security Office’s excellent SSP report at: http://spacesolarpower.files.wordpress.com/2007/11/final-sbsp-interim-assessment-release-01.pdf


America’s energy security and global environment are at risk

• These threats are imminent - in the time frame required to address them.

• Nothing is being done on the scale and time frame required.

• SSP is the most important clean baseload energy source - with the potential to strongly address our energy, environment and related problems with a magnificent alternative.


Peaking Oil Dr. Robert Hirsch finds the most current and authoritative

research predicts peak global oil production between 2008 and 2018: "In a worst-case scenario, global oil production may reach its peak in 2008, before starting to decline. In a best-case scenario, this peak would not be reached until 2018.” “Giant Oil Fields – Highway to Oil”, dissertation, F. Robelius, Uppsala University, 2007.

www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/03/070330100802.htm and www.peakoil.net/GiantOilFields.html

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/03/070330100802.htm

http://www.peakoil.net/GiantOilFields.html


Peaking Coal The most current and authoritative

research predicts peak global coal production by 2025. - "Peak coal by 2025 say researchers", initiated by a German member of Parliament. Authors: Dr. Werner Zittel and Jörg Schindler

www.energywatchgroup.org/files/Coalreport.pdf and

www.energybulletin.net/28287.html

http://www.energywatchgroup.org/files/Coalreport.pdf

http://www.energybulletin.net/28287.html


Skyrocketing Materials Prices

April 9, 2008 - Japan's three biggest steel makers -- Nippon Steel Corp., JFE Holdings Inc.'s JFE Steel unit and Sumitomo Metal Industries Ltd. -- all accepted Australian miner BHP Billiton Ltd.'s offer to supply coking coal at $300 per ton for fiscal 2008, up from $98 last year.

Influential power producer Chubu Electric Power agreed to pay Swiss mining firm Xstrata $125 per metric ton of Australian thermal coal this fiscal year, more than double the $55 per ton paid last year. Earlier this year a 65% increase in iron-ore prices was absorbed. The price hikes increase inflationary pressure on finished goods. - http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120773119565901329.html

http://online.wsj.com/quotes/main.html?type=djn&symbol=5401.TO



http://online.wsj.com/quotes/main.html?type=djn&symbol=BHP.AU


http://online.wsj.com/quotes/main.html?type=djn&symbol=XTA


The Natural Gas Peaking Disaster

The U.S. has the highest natural gas prices in the world. Why?

Natural Gas Prices - Henry Hub $/MMBTU

$0.00$3.00$6.00$9.00

$12.00$15.00

Jan-90

Jan-92

Jan-94

Jan-96

Jan-98

Jan-00

Jan-02

Jan-04

Jan-06

Jan-08

Date

Pri

ce


“High natural gas prices are a particular hardship for the U.S. chemical industry, the nation’s largest industrial consumer of natural gas. U.S. natural gas prices are the highest in the world. We have lost more than $50 billion in business to overseas competition. “More than 90,000 good-paying jobs in our industry have disappeared, as well as collateral jobs in associated businesses. Unless immediate action is taken, the continued viability of a great American industry is in jeopardy.- Tom Reilly, President, American Chemistry Council, letter to President Bush

November 19, 2004 http://accnewsmedia.com/docs/2100/2073.pdf


Source: "A Case Study on Peak Energy - The U. S’s Natural Gas Disaster” http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/ASPO2004.pdf

1998 2003

Oil 49 12

Natural Gas 35 6

Total 84 18

USGS assessment of Mexico’s oil & gas reserves (billion barrels oil equivalent)(EIA estimates)


The supply gap for the US natural gas market alone could reach 10 Trillion Cubic feet/year by 2020[1]. (In Btu equivalent terms, this is nearly twice the amount of oil the U.S. currently imports from the Middle East.) Globally the oil supply gap of 2020 has been projected to be 15 million barrels per day[2]. On the massive TeraWatt scale soon required, only SSP can provide the clean reliable baseload energy the world requires. No other alternative energy technology succeeds:

[1] “Playing with Fire - Part II”, http://www.energypulse.net/centers/article/article_display.cfm?a_id=1397 [2] “Is There A Painless Way To Fill The Oil Supply Gap?”, by Dr Michael R. Smith, http://www.energyfiles.com/oilsupplygap.html


Declining oil & gas supply data reliability

Outside the US global oil & gas reserve data is of extremely poor quality

www.ipaa.org/meetings/ppt/2007Annual/JeffDietert.pps

Flying Blind


US Energy Companies Declining in Global Clout and Production Control

Gazprom working on Gas MonopolyApril 9, 2008 - While Russia's Gazprom regularly disrupts gas supplies to its neighbors, it is working hard to partner with gas suppliers in Libya, Algeria, Egypt and Nigeria – the top four gas producing countries in Africa. It is clearly motivated by the desire to acquire a monopoly or near-monopoly of gas supplies to Western Europe and perhaps the US.

-“The de-flattening of the world”, By Martin Hutchinson,http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JD09Dj02.html

http://www.sundayobserver.lk/2008/03/30/wld02.asp

http://www.zawya.com/marketing.cfm?zp&p=/Story.cfm/sid20080403_25798_258?cc

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JD09Dj02.html

http://www.sundayobserver.lk/2008/03/30/wld02.asp



EIA says no change -

fossil fuels keep growing and growing

Source: EIA International REFERENCE CASE

1980263 QUADRILLION BTU


BIOMASSNUCLEAR

WIND / SOLAR / GEOTHERMAL


HYDRO

OIL

NATURAL GAS

COAL


“It will require more than a decade to transition our civilization away from our heavy dependence on oil. Nothing close to the efforts envisaged have yet begun.”

- Testimony by Robert Hirsch, SAIC, at the Pentagon and U.S. Congressional Committee on Energy and Commerce hearing, from the "Hirsch Report", commissioned by the Department of Energy -http://energycommerce.house.gov/108/hearings/12072005Hearing1733/hearing.htm and "Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management www.netl.doe.gov/otiic/World_Oil_Issues/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf


The Energy, Food & Environment view ahead is disastrous!!


The best we’ve got – SSP – is unfunded - still in the pits!!


Conservation

CarpoolingNew LED and compact flourescent lightingEnergy efficient appliances Air Conditioning Refrigerators Dish Washers (& do not use hot dry) Cooking with Microwave ovens over conventionalAdding insulation to walls and ceilingDouble glaze windowsBermed houses. etc.,


Electrifying our transportation system

Hybrid/electric cars & trucksLight rail & subways

Electric trainsSuper batteries

Super capacitors


What are our alternatives?

Clean? Safe? Reliable? Baseload?

Fossil Fuel No Yes Peak Imminent Yes

Nuclear No Yes Fuel limited Yes

Wind Power Yes Yes No, intermittent No

Geothermal Yes Yes No, Limited Yes

Ground Solar Yes Yes No, intermittent No

Hydro Yes Yes No; drought; complex scheduling

Bio-fuels Yes Yes Very limited quantities - competes with food production.

SSP Yes Yes Yes Yes


“Peaking units”, such as wind or terrestrial solar, may provide power for 25-30% of a good day, (on average). Space Solar Power (SSP), however, is “baseload” available 99% of the year from GeoSynchronous Orbit. (Baseload nuclear or coal plants, typically running 24/7, are actually available only 90% of the year.)

SPS requires no fuel and has no operations personnel – it is an antenna – with farms underneath. SSP is the cleanest source of virtually unlimited baseload energy.


Solar panels a 'loser,' professor says Installing them amounts to 'THROWING MONEY AWAY'

Feb. 21, 2008 - Installing solar panels on homes is an economic "loser" with the costs far outweighing the financial benefit, said a respected University of California-Berkeley business professor. Using photovoltaic panels to generate electricity is not competitive with fossil fuels and costs more than other renewable fuels, said Severin Borenstein, who also directs the UC Energy Institute. A typical PV system costs between $86,000 and $91,000 to install, while the value of its power over its lifetime ranges from $19,000 to $51,000. Even using favorable criteria, the cost would still be 80 percent more than the value of the electricity produced.

http://www.bizjournals.com/eastbay/stories/2008/02/18/daily43.html

http://www.bizjournals.com/eastbay/stories/2008/02/18/daily43.html


"We are in the beginning stages of major changes to agricultural markets caused by rapidly expanding production of bio-fuels.“

– Credit Suisse Group, in “Corn Is Booming as Ethanol Heats Up”, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116260858542413472.html

Although that is only one-seventh the quantity President Bush foresees for 2015, that demand has pushed corn to near-record prices. “If all the corn produced in America in 2005 were dedicated to ethanol production it would reduce U.S. demand for gasoline by, at most, 12 percent...

– “A bumper crop of unintended consequences”, http://news.bostonherald.com/editorial/view.bg?articleid=180746


To reach Bush’s 20 percent goal, corn production must grow to 167 percent of its 2005 levels, and every kernel must go into ethanol. Kiss your corn pudding goodbye.

Corn is also the major feed/ingredient for chickens, pigs, cattle; milk, cheese, eggs, hamburger, Coke, Pepsi, Jack Daniels, etc., ...

(By weight, a McDonald’s hamburger is 52% corn.)


Biofuel Myths (1)

These myths include:

• Large-scale biofuel production is sustainable• Biofuels are environmentally friendly and reduce CO2

emissions• Biofuels will help us (the USA) achieve "energy

independence“• Biofuels will help the farmers• Biofuels will let us continue our current way of life


The Myth Of Biofuels (2)

Little known Biofuel Facts

- In 2007, in the USA, corn for ethanol will exceed corn for export. USA corn exports provide 60% of the world market.

- As demand for corn goes up, production of other crops will decline, for years, including wheat, rice and others.

- Biofuels do not have the energy density of oil. The EROI (Energy Returned On Energy Invested) of bioethanol has a ratio of about 2:1 We currently benefit from Middle East crude oil, with an EROI of 30:1


The Myth Of Biofuels (3)

Little known Biofuel Facts

- Biodiesel. The four best (kg/hectare) biodiesel crops only grow in the tropics. If all the world's vegetable oil were converted to biodiesel, it would provide about 8% of world consumption of diesel. Some countries have targets of 10% biodiesel, thus the reason why some groups are convinced these targets will lead to starvation.

- The Myth of Biofuels is excerpted from a presentation by David Fridley of Lawrence Berkeley Labs, June 2007. More details and information are available from the website, The Myths of Biofuels. http://www.odac-info.org/bulletin/bulletin.htm#myth_of_biofuels

http://www.sfbayoil.org/sfoa/myths/index.html


“We think that the market share of bio-fuels in 2030 will only be 7 % of global fuel production. To reach 7 %, one will need an agricultural area equivalent to the surface of Australia, plus Korea, Japan and New Zealand.

- International Energy Agency chief economist www.energybulletin.net/32242.html

http://www.energybulletin.net/32242.html


“The 111 ethanol refineries now in operation, the 75 under construction or expansion, and others still being planned, would be able to use 10 billion bushels of corn a year by 2009 — about the same as the entire 2006 crop. The price of pig feed has gone up 25 per cent since the summer, and it's not the price so much as the fact that it's just not available“

- Dave Warner, National Pork Producers Council.

"The days of the United States meat industry in its current state appear to be numbered. The gates are down. The lights are flashing. Does anyone see the train coming?“

- David Nelson, agribusiness analyst for Credit Suisse Group, in “Ethanol fuels concern of US farmers“ http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/ethanol-fuels-concern-of-us-farmers/2007/01/28/1169919212154.html


Forget oil, the new global crisis is food

BMO strategist Donald Coxe warns credit crunch and soaring oil prices will pale in comparison to looming catastrophe - A new crisis is emerging, a global food catastrophe that will reach further and be more crippling than anything the world has ever seen. The credit crunch and the reverberations of soaring oil prices around the world will pale in comparison to what is about to transpire, Donald Coxe, global portfolio strategist at BMO Financial Group "It's not a matter of if, but when," he warned investors. "It's going to hit this year hard." - Financial Post,, January 03, 2008, www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=213343


So How do we build SSP?

No company(s) or agency(s), however, is prepared to assume the immense financial risk of initiating construction of an SSPS.

There are simply too many engineering, financial, regulatory and managerial risks for any group we have been able to identify to undertake SSP today.

But this road has been well traveled by America before ...


There is a tried and true vehicle, that could initiate SSP construction today.

A private Congressionally chartered corporation has all the requisite advantages. Comsat Corp., chartered in 1962, opened space for communication satellites - when we knew little about space, rockets or space communications. Communications satellites are now a $100 Billion industry per year. The “Sunsat Act” would accomplish the same task, creating a space solar power industry of much greater size.


Trans-Continental Railroad “Cape Horn at The Head of The Great American Canon”,

…- Frank Leslie's Illustrated Newspaper, April 27, 1878


Congress chartered Comsat Corp.in 1962 to build communications satellites. Comsat Corp. opened space to the diverse $100+ Billion per year communications satellite business of today. Congress should charter a new corporation, Sunsat Corp. to build power satellites. Draft legislation for Sunsat, very much like Comsat, would have all the requisite advantages. We recommend that congress charter Sunsat Corp.

The electric power industry is the most capital intensive business in the world. This is why utilities are generally regulated monopolies – because ownership of major power plants is really a public trust. Sunsat also needs to be organized the same way.


This legislation would provide a launch “subsidy” to new private or public/ private businesses, such as SunSat Corp, which are contracting for space transportation. This subsidy would be in the form of stock transfers and loan guarantees.

Sunsat Corp. is aiming for 42,000 flights per year, nominally. Prices would quickly fall below current levels once subsidies established such a market volume.


Prices drop as flight rate increasesRed dots are Elon Musk, SpaceX, $1300/lb and Roger Angel’s $20/lb (Sandia electromagnetic launch)


COTS Program NASA plans to retire the shuttle by 2010 and Orion-Ares is

not scheduled until 2015. NASA has selected two companies to build replacement services:

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX),

Hawthorne, CA and Orbital Sciences Corporation of Dulles, VA.

http://www.spacex.com/


The FAA’s 2007 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast shows a declining launch market – no change is forecast in high launch costs – necessary for SSP. SSP must incentivize the orbital market fleet it needs to close the business case. SSP is the only market capable of doing this. The FAA shows it won’t happen with business as usual assumptions, we need Sunsat Act.


Continuing - since space transportation is expensive we want to find high performance photovoltaic cells – to increase the power output for the same weight carried to orbit.

Space qualified thin-film solar cells in the pipeline today can provide 4550 Watts/Kg. These are adequate specifications to begin SSP design and/or construction now.

We anticipate tripling that performance within 3-5 years, using current laboratory PV cells.*

Photo courtesy NASA, and ManTech-SRSTechnologies

April 30,2004 Space Solar Power Workshop 44Source: Ken Zweibel, NREL


SkyWorker an autonomous robot to build multi-kilometer size space structures

Credit – Red Whitaker, CMU Robotics, http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/projects/skyworker/temp/skyworker2.mpg


Operations), part of Boeing’s Orbital Express system, successfully demonstrated advanced on-orbit satellite refueling and reconfiguration capabilities with NextSat. ASTRO, the robotic, on-orbit spacecraft mechanic, successfully captured NextSat. Orbital Express is a DARPA program which has validated on-orbit satellite servicing technologies.

ASTRO Captures NextSat

On July 23, 2007, for the first time ever, a satellite autonomously rendezvoused with and captured another orbiting satellite, pioneering future robotic work in space . ASTRO (Autonomous Space Transport Robotic


• Unlike oil, gas, ethanol, and coal plants, SSP does not emit CO2.• Unlike coal and nuclear plants, SSP does not compete for or depend

upon increasingly scarce fresh water resources.• Unlike bio-ethanol or bio-diesel, SSP does not compete for

increasingly valuable farm land or depend on natural-gas-derived fertilizer. Food can continue to be a major export instead of a fuel provider.

• Unlike nuclear power plants, SSP will not produce hazardous waste, proliferate nuclear weapons, or provide easy targets for terrorists.

Advantages of Space Solar Power


• Unlike terrestrial solar and wind power plants, SSP is available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, in endless quantities. It ignores cloud cover, daylight, or wind speed.

• Unlike coal and nuclear fuels, SSP does not require environmentally problematic mining operations.

• SSP can provide true energy independence for the nations that develop it, eliminating a major source of national competition for limited Earth-based energy resources and dependence on unstable or hostile foreign oil providers.

Advantages of Space Solar Power - 2


• SSP can be easily exported anywhere in the world, and its energy can be converted to local needs, from household appliances in rural India to desalination of sea water.

• SSP can take advantage of our current and historic investment in aerospace expertise to expand employment opportunities in solving the difficult problems of energy security and climate change.

• SSP can provide a market large enough to develop the low-cost space transportation system required to enable an SSP business case. This will slowly open the solar system to Earth’s economic reach and even settlement.

Advantages of Space Solar Power - 3


If we move soon, we can alleviate much of the disastrous impact that other attempts to substitute for SSP will have, such as raising the cost of food and starving millions worldwide. Many economical alternatives can contribute - beginning with electrifying our transportation systems, such as hybrid-electric cars, as Japan and France are doing . The technologies and infrastructure required to make SSP feasible include:

• Low-cost, environmentally-friendly launch vehicles. Current launch vehicles are too expensive, and at high launch rates may pose atmospheric pollution problems of their own. Only SSP enables and requires these.

The Path of Space Solar Power


• Large scale in-orbit construction and operations. The physics requires that solar power satellites must be huge, gathering massive utility-scale quantities of energy.

• World photovoltaic (PV) production would be greatly expanded into space, where it began in 1958 with our Vanguard I spacecraft. Currently just 0.03% of worldwide electricity is generated from photovoltaic power. 2006 world PV production was 2.1 GW

• All other necessary technologies are similarly reasonably near-term and have multiple attractive approaches. However, much work (STEM jobs) that we understand well is needed to bring them to practical fruition

The Path of Space Solar Power - 2


SSP would revitalize America by showing that a multitude of space-development-related-educational-fields, from telerobotics to wireless power transfer and environmental sciences, are vitally relevant to these great problems.

Reduced launch costs, the key enabler, will provide unprecedented access to space and space operations beginning with clean, baseload, sustainable SSP - reliable power delivery and global energy security at greatly reduced environmental impact. Only SSP can support this vastly expanded space launch market.

Choosing to charter an SSP corporation would be “a small step for man, a giant leap for mankind.”


FOR MORE INFO...

Sunsat Act Draft legislation available at: www.sspi.gatech.edu/sunsat-how.pdf

Learn more at www.sspi.gatech.eduEmail: [email protected]

And many other resources such as: www.nss.org/settlement/ssp/sspvideo.htm

http://www.sspi.gatech.edu/

http://www.nss.org/settlement/ssp/sspvideo.htm

April 30,2004Space Solar Power Workshop1 Peak Oil, Gas, Coal, Food & The Great Race to Clean Global...

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