Bullseye ReportWeekly Overview

Authored by:Juanis G. BarredoVP; Chief Technical AnalystCOL Financial Group Inc.(632) 636-5411Juanis.barredo@colfinancial.com

Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates constitute the judgment of COL’s Equity Research Dept as of

the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. The report is for informational

purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale of a security.

Philippine Equity Research

April 3, 2017

WEEK’S HIGLIGHTS• The Philippines’ PSEi bounced 42-pts for the week but remains

blocked by resistance

• Average Daily Value Turnover was higher at P9.09-B coming from P7.03-B the week previous

• Net foreign flows were negative again this time at P6.6-B as against outflows of P3.3-B the previous week

• The PSEi (at 7,312) rallied slightly aided by the services sector (TEL, GLO & ICT) and some industrials. But an ongoing rise in the number of down trends for the week (as shown in our TechMap in page 4) may prove to be a stumbling block for the PSEi if it is not arrested. For now the index remains in consolidation mode as its band sits between 7,417 and 7,123. The index has been within this range since January of 2017 and really needs to stand over its 65-day MA support (7,252) to keep itself relevant in terms of being able to rally and challenge resistance

• US indices were higher for the week as was Europe… but the US is still within a short term corrective drive while Europe has extended itself into Overbought levels which may solicit choppiness soon. The US Dollar rebounded but remains within a reactive channel –the rally in the Dollar affected the Euro, Yen and Gold in the early part of the week. Asian markets were mixed with Japan and China showing weak technical, both now nearing major support

Focus ItemsHighlight Page

Philippines : Weekly Stats 2

Philippines : PSEi & Peso 3

Tech Map: Some key stocks and trend calls 4

US and Europe: In review 5

Asia: In review 6

Currencies & Commodities: In review 7

Issue Prev Wk Last Wk Wk Chg Wk Chg % YTD %

Philippines 7,270 7,312 42.10 0.58 6.89

Peso-$ 50.325 50.16 (0.165) (0.33) 0.88

MSCI Phils 34.19 34.16 (0.03) (0.09) 5.43

PLDT US 30.67 32.16 1.490 4.86 16.73

DJIA 20,597 20,663 66.50 0.32 4.56

SP500 2,344 2,363 18.74 0.80 5.53

Nasdaq 5,829 5,912 83.00 1.42 9.82

England 7,337 7,323 (13.90) (0.19) 2.52

Nikkei 19,263 18,909 (353.27) (1.83) (1.07)

Hong Kong 24,358 24,112 (246.68) (1.01) 9.60

China 3,269 3,223 (46.94) (1.44) 3.83

US 30yr Bond 151.1 150.27 (0.83) (0.55) 0.31

10-Yr Yield 24 23.96 (0.040) (0.17) (2.04)

Dollar Indx 99.44 100.22 0.78 0.78 (2.02)

Gold 1,248.50 1,251.20 2.70 0.22 8.64

Oil 47.97 50.6 2.63 5.48 (5.81)

CRB Index 183.47 185.88 2.41 1.31 (3.44)

Philippines: Weekly Stats**Bullseye --- Page 2

*Source: PSEPER (Price/Earnings Ratio) data uses four-quarter trailing financial data

2017 Net Outflows of P-18.30-B

Philippines: PSEi & PesoBullseye --- Page 3

Recommendation: Hold but watch support

Support: 7,252 – 7,123 Resistance: 7,402 - 7,720

• The PSEi was up 42-pts for the week but remains ranged with resistance holding at 7,402-7,417

• This keeps its consolidation in place and may drive prices to move towards the lower end of its pattern and conduct a support test

•Another rise in the number of short term declines from our TechMap (page 4) is proving to be quite worrisome

•Only a push over 7,402-7,417 can trigger a fresh buy

•Weekly MACD reads are still negative and can still offer up a support break if demand is insufficient

Recommendation: Buy the Dollar on support dips

Support: 49.92 - 49.45 Resistance: 50.40 - 50.85/51.60

• The Peso (at P50.16) was little stronger against the Dollar despite the Dollar index rallying – it presently is ranging

• Its weekly MACD leans more on corrective action which may inhibit depreciation threats for the meantime – next resistance after 50.40 then 80.85 to 51.60

• The Dollar’s recent rally may put on some pressure unless it is blocked by 1st resistance (where it is now near)

• Peso-$ support stands at 49.92 then 49.45

Wave-3 low

Some Key Stocks and Trend CallsTech Map

BEL 2G0 ABS^ PHA DAVIN ALI SMPHEEI AC AEV PSE HOUSE AR SSI

GLO BPI AGI PSPC ION AT TUGSICT CHIB ALCO* RCB* JFC CAL VITAPNX EDC ANI RRHI LC CHP

ROCK IMI ANS SECB ORE COALTEL JGS AP* SM PCOR COSCO

LTG APC SMC PXP CPGMCP AUB STI* RWM CROWN

MWIDE BDO TECH^ SBS DIZPIP BHI UNI SGI DMC

PIZZA BLOOM^ URC TAPET ELIPLC CEB VLL EMPSCC CIC FGENUBP CNPF GERI

X DD GTCAPDMPL HLCMDNL ISEW LPZ

FDC* MARCFLI* MEGFNI^ MER

FOOD MPIFPH* MRSGIHVN NILR NIKL

MA PHENMAXS* PNB

MBT PXMWC RFMNOW RLC

OV SHLPHPGOLD* SLI

7 (-1) 16 (+3) 46 (-12) 12 (-1) 37 (+11)

Bullseye --- Page 4

GREEN

RED

BLACK

-These issues improved their technical condition for the week (moving to the left of their column category on the Tech Map)-These issues deteriorated on their technical condition for the week (moving to the right of their column category on the Tech Map)-These issues carried the same technical condition for the week (standing on the same column category on the Tech Map)

Legend: (Note: Trends are cast in the short term)

Up trends:These issues show continuing if not strong up trends. Look for trading buys now if risk-reward measures are appealing or if not, buy into slight dips.

Up trends needy of reactions or are reacting:These issues show continuing up trends but are showing some reactive adjustments due to profit taking. Look for pullbacks to short term support or a rally from such support to cast fresh buy trades.

Consolidations (Sideward trends):These issues are running through consolidation phases. Either wait for key range breaks or range trade and buy into a support bounce. Keep watch of possible range break bias in the following direction [~-up/down, ^-up, *-down).

Down trends needy of rallies or are rallying:These issues show continuing down trends but are undergoing a temporary/oversold rally. Lighten or sell into rebounds to resistance for now.

Down trends:These issues show continuing down trends. Stay out for now until better demand patterns appear.

Stock Code Color Guide:

Total Issues (change from last report)

US and European MarketsBullseye --- Page 5

US indices rally for the week; Eurozone markets at fresh 2017 highs but overbought

• US markets were higher for the week after finding some support near the 65-day MA. But its short term corrective phase persists so long as reactive trendline remain unbroken and no fresh highs are seen. If resistance breaks can be shown then the Sp500 and Dow may try to work back to recent highs (where the Nasdaq is now)

• Short term Support and Resistance estimates for US indices are shown below:

Dow: 20,377-19,911 – (R) 20,800-21,200

SP500: 2,322-2,280 – (R) 2,390-2,400

Nasdaq: 5,769-5,587 – (R) 5,928-6,000

• European indices were mostly higher (save for the English FTSE) for the week with the German DAX (+2.06%) leading the way into fresh highs followed by the French CAC (+2.02%)then Spain’s IBEX (+1.49%). These Eurozone indices are now overbought in both daily and weekly readings

• The US 10-Yr Bond Yield ($tnx) was lower for the week but did rally from its weekly lows. Yields remain to be range bound between 23.09 (2.309%) and 26.15 (2.616%). The intraweek rally did aid in rallying the Dollar. For now more consolidating action may be expected into yields

* Simple Moving Averages: 20-Period 50-Period

Asian MarketsAsia was mixed; Japan, China & HK weigh down:

• Asian markets were mixed with Japan, China and Hong Kong showing some corrective pressure. Singapore and India showed the strongest up trends while Malaysia and Indonesia has some overbought problems

• The PSEi (7,311 +0.58% WoW) rallied 42-pts for the week but still remains below resistance (7,402-7,417) of its consolidation. An increase in short term decliners from a week to week basis, weakens its drive and if this proceeds may prompt for a retest of support. Support is still placed at its 65-day MA and range lows of 7,252 to 7,123. If these both break then we may have to build in yet another corrective drive which may attempt to swing closer to 6,836

Bullseye --- Page 6

* Simple Moving Averages: 20-Period 50-Period

Asian Indices (for the week) YTD RSI

Singapore 1.02% 9.90% 60.04%

India 0.68% 12.34% 64.70%

Philippines 0.58% 6.89% 53.31%

Thailand 0.10% 2.43% 57.37%

Indonesia -0.04% 5.07% 65.09%

Malaysia -0.04% 8.06% 63.93%

S Korea -0.40% 6.60% 61.75%

Hong Kong -1.01% 10.65% 51.98%

China -1.44% 4.08% 46.80%

Japan -1.83% -1.23% 39.94%Malaysia ($MYDOW) & Indonesia ($IDDOW) represented by their ETFs

Currencies & CommoditiesDollar index still weak, Oil nearly oversold:

• The US Dollar index (100.22 +0.78% WoW) was higher for the week after recovering from near support. A reactive channel seems to have formed between the range of 98.67 & 101.60 (Sup 98.67-98.00/Res 100.89-101.60)

• The Euro index (106.58 -1.33% WoW) fell for the week after breaking its rally trendline – a recovery channel still holds prices between 105.70 and 109.30 (Sup 106.50-105.70/ Res 108.29- 109.30)

• The Yen index (89.77 +0.11% WoW) [$¥111.39] corrected for the week given the rallying Dollar. A recovery channel is till open between 87.40-91.10 (Sup 88.00-87.40 / Res 90.87-91.10)

• Gold ($1,251.20 +0.22% WoW) rallied slightly but may keep itself under resistance of its recently previous high if the Dollar proceeds higher (Sup 1,217-1,194 /Res 1,264.90-1,272)

• Copper ($2.65 +0.82% WoW) proceeds to consolidate and needs to break over 2.70 to free itself from its range and allow for more rally action (Sup 2.55 /Res 2.699-2.77)

• Oil ($50.60 +5.48% WoW) rallied back to the $50 zone after pushing to base out from its recent sell down to $47.00 where its 260-day MA and 52-wk MA sits. A recovery channel ($47.00-$56.70) still carries the wide swings of Oil. (Sup 47.00-44.82/ Res 50.94-51.98/56.70)

Bullseye --- Page 7

* Simple Moving Averages: 20-Period 50-Period