April 2017 Post-Election Research: Persuadable and Drop-off … · 2017-05-01 · 1 Post-Election...

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Post-Election Research: Persuadable and Drop-off Voters

April 2017

Research findings prepared for Priorities USAby Global Strategy Group & Garin Hart Yang

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Focus Groups

GSG and GHY conducted two focusgroups in Oak Creek, Wisconsin onJanuary 26th, two in Southfield,Michigan on January 28th, and two inTampa, Florida on January 29th, 2017.

In each set of groups, one group wasconducted with Obama-Trump votersand one with turnout targets(millennials in WI & FL and AfricanAmerican voters in MI who voted forObama but did not vote in 2016).

Methodology

Obama- Trump Survey

GSG and GHY conducted a survey of 801registered voters who voted for DonaldTrump in 2016 and Barack Obama in2012 from January 31st to February 4th,2017.

Drop-off Voter Survey

GSG and GHY conducted a survey of 803registered voters nationwide fromMarch 31st to April 5th, 2017,conducting interviews with 401midterm drop-off voters (voted forClinton in 2016 but did not vote in 2014)and 402 presidential drop-off voters(voted for Obama in 2012 but did notvote in 2016).

1 2

3

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Understanding Drop-off and Persuadable Voters

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Key Findings: Persuadable and Drop-off voters

A key commonality between turnout voters and Obama-Trump voters is that theyare struggling economically.

• Clinton and Democrats’ economic message did not break through to drop-off orObama-Trump voters, even though drop-off voters are decidedly anti-Trump.

• Drop-off voters already believe that Trump’s policies will benefit the wealthy overother groups, but there is more work to be done to convince Obama-Trump voters thatthis is the case.

• Ensuring corporations pay their fair share of taxes, modernizing infrastructure, andincreasing the development of renewable energy are seen as economically beneficialby both groups.

Health care is a critical motivator for both Democratic drop-off voters andpersuadable Trump voters.

• Both groups identify cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, and other healthcare programs aspolicies that would have a very bad effect on them personally.

• Among drop-off voters, items related to health care (increasing costs for seniors,cutting important programs, and millions of Americans losing coverage) are frequentlyrated as very major concerns.

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How satisfied are you with the state of the US economy today?

Income Relative to Cost of Living

Both drop-off and Obama-Trump voters feel their income is falling behind the cost of living and few are very satisfied with the state of the economy

Income going up faster than the cost of living

Income falling behind the cost of living

8

19

49

31

43

50

Drop-off Voters

Obama-Trump Voters

Income staying about even with the cost of living/DK

Very satisfied

10

16

47

37

25

34

15

13

Drop-off Voters

Obama-Trump Voters

Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfiedDK/Refused

More presidential drop-off voters feel their income is falling behind the cost of living (46%), onpar with Obama-Trump voters (50%).

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Obama-Trump Voters In Depth

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Which of the following was more important to you in deciding to vote for Donald Trump?

Would you say that your vote for president was more a vote FOR Donald Trump, more a vote against Clinton, or both equally?

His background as a businessman and the fact that he is not a typical politician

His stand on policies and issues that matter to you

393443

37

38

37

242820

Overall

Strongly supported DJT

Mixed feelings about DJT

Obama-Trump voters were drawn to Trump more on his business persona than on his issue stands – especially ambivalent Trump backers

Both equally

More a vote FOR Trump More a vote AGAINST CLINTON

487521

22

17

26

308

53

Overall



Both equally

8

57

55

50

50

48

46

45

44

40

38

37

36

35

32

29

28

30

34

30

37

35

35

35

30

39

39

37

38

35

27

15

15

16

20

15

19

20

21

30

23

24

27

27

33

44

Protecting Social Security for senior citizens

Protecting Medicare for senior citizens

Creating good paying jobs for American workers

Cleaning up corruption in gov't

Cracking down on the outsourcing of American jobs

Making sure that wealthy pay their fair share of taxes

Keeping Wall Street in check

Deporting immigrants who are in the country illegally

Cracking down on unfair foreign trade

Reducing the influence of special interests/lobbyists

Modernizing America's infrastructure

Maintaining environmental protections

Building a wall along the US border with Mexico

Trump supporters prioritize Social Security, Medicare, and jobs –but only strong supporters prioritize immigration and trade

Priorities for the President and Congress

Extremely important Not important

Making sure that all Americans have access to affordable health insurance

Making sure that women are treated fairly in the workplace

StronglySupp.

Mixed Feelings

61 54

58 52

50 50

55 45

52 44

53 39

45 45

44 43

50 31

46 30

40 34

36 37

41 29

34 29

43 15

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Do you think Congressional Democrats’ economic policies will favor….?

Do you think Congressional Republicans’ economic policies will favor….?

Persuadable voters believe Trump will help the middle class over the wealthy, but don’t feel the same about Congressional Republicans

424738

1614

18

2320

25

191919

Overall



The wealthy

402950

3138

25

2629

24

34

Overall



Do you think Donald Trump’s economic policies will favor….?

The poor211626

4448

40

333333

3Overall



All groups equally The middle class

The wealthy The poorAll groups equally The middle class

The wealthy The poorAll groups equally The middle class

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Do you have confidence, or doubts, that Donald Trump will do a good job as president?

Have the things you have seen, read, or heard recently made you feel more confident, or less confident, that Donald Trump will do a good job?

Confidence Doubts

62

89

35

29

9

49

9

16

Overall



As we start to move voters away from Trump, we have a solid base of Obama-Trump voters to target in our efforts

Somewhere in between

MORE Confident LESS Confident

65

85

45

23

13

34

12

21

Overall



No Difference

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Weak supporters in particular seek Congressional leadership that will act as a check against Donald Trump

When it comes to electing people to Congress, would you prefer to elect?

Check and balance on Trump Work with Trump

36

19

53

64

81

47

Overall



12

51

41

38

38

38

38

38

35

33

31

22

27

21

26

22

24

22

21

19

21

27

32

41

36

40

38

40

44

48

48

Cutting benefits, driving up consumer costs, and repealing Obamacare without replacing it are especially concerning to cautious supporters

Trump Concerns

Concerns me Does not concern meJust someStrongly

Supp.Mixed

FeelingsNon-

College College

46 55 50 52

35 48 39 47

31 46 37 40

31 44 39 35

30 47 37 44

32 45 38 39

32 45 36 43

28 43 34 38

29 37 32 37

28 34 28 39

He will make too many cuts to important programs that seniors and working people

depend on, like Medicare/MedicaidThe large tax on imports he has proposed will raise the costs of things that American

consumers buy

He will repeal Obamacare and not come up with a plan to replace it

His administration is full of corporateexecutives who will put their interests

ahead of working people

He will not show the temperament, judgement, and self-control required…

He will get the US involved in foreign wars

His policies will go too far in favoring the wealthy over working people

He will reduce America’s credibility around the world by saying things that aren’t true…

He will go too far in rolling back access to legal abortion and affordable

comprehensive healthcare for women

He will be too close to Putin and won’t stand up to Putin…

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To win back cautious Trump supporters, we should tie Trump to GOP policiesthat put the interests of the wealthy/businesses before the middle class andprograms they rely on such as Medicare and Social Security

Which one or two of the following outcomes from Trump’s term as president would bother you the most?

49

37

33

18

13

5

48

31

32

16

18

8

51

43

33

20

8

2

If he didn’t “save Medicare and Social Security” and instead cut benefits for those programs.

If he didn’t “give the power back to the people” and instead put the interests of wealthy elites

and big businesses first.

If he didn’t “put American jobs first” and instead made it easier for big businesses to outsource

jobs.

If he didn’t “drain the swamp” and instead put lobbyists, campaign donors, and special interests

in charge of his administration.

If he didn’t “make Mexico pay” for the border wall between the United States and Mexico, and

instead taxpayers ended up footing the bill.

None of these would bother me

OverallStrongly Supported DJTMixed Feelings about DJT

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Drop-off Voters In Depth

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Democratic-leaning drop-off voters have favorable opinions of their party and are very unfavorable to Trump and the GOP

Favorability of the Political Parties

737570

547

879

18

17

20

18

15

19

8

7

9

98

10

778174

848682

Overall

Midterm

Presidential

Overall

Midterm

Presidential

Overall

Midterm

Presidential

Favorable Unfavorable

The Republican

Party

The Democratic

Party

Neutral/DK

29% very favorable

55% very unfavorable

28% very favorable




Donald Trump

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Timing of Decision to Not Vote & Reason for Not Voting (Presidential Drop-off Voters)

Many voters who decided not to vote last minute offered excuses for their behavior, while those who decided not to vote in advance felt ambivalent or negative toward both candidates

Decided not to vote in advance of Election Day

Decided not to vote at the last minute

36 25 39

Some of both

“I did not like either candidate”

“I think both candidates were not a good fit forpresident”

“I felt everyone was voting the same way I wasin my area so I felt it didn’t matter”

“I voted for Bernie Sanders in the primary; Icouldn’t support Clinton for the generalelection”

“It makes no difference”

“Neither candidate was trustworthy”

“I couldn’t get off work in time to vote”

“I didn’t receive my absentee ballot”

“Tired of voting for the lesser of two evils”

“I wanted more time to think about Trump and Clinton”

“I got sick and could not vote”

“The polls were too busy and I could not vote”

“I was having trouble walking and I heard that the lines were long”

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Impact of Trump Presidency

Impact of 2018 Election

Drop-off voters – including midterm drop-off voters – say the 2018 elections will have a bigger impact on their lives than Trump’s election in 2016

Has had a big impact

32

34

31

27

30

25

4

4

4

37

33

41

Overall

Midterm

Presidential

Has had a small impact Has had no impactNot sure

Will have a big impact

46

45

46

32

35

29

9

9

10

13

10

15

Overall

Midterm

Presidential

Will have a small impact Will have no impactNot sure

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Impact of 2018 Election

Groups that feel the impact of the 2016 election less strongly – men, millennial voters, and African American voters – also recognize what is at stake in 2018

Will have a big impact

46

4149

53474532

494544

32

3729

3131

3334

3029

39

9

5

12

8

10

8

13

9

8

11

13

1710

8121421

1218

6

Overall

Men

Women

18-34

35-49

60-64

65+

White

African American

Hispanic

Will have a small impact Will have no impactNot sure2016

Big Impact Gap

32 +14

24 +17

38 +11

32 +21

42 +5

30 +15

22 +10

34 +15

26 +19

37 +7

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Motivation/Enthusiasm about Voting

Generic Ballot for Congress

Midterm drop-offs are slightly more motivated and enthusiastic about voting than presidential drop-offs, though both favor Democrats in a generic ballot for Congress

Extremely (9-10)/Somewhat (6-8) motivated

58

61

56

22

23

22

2

1

2

18

15

20

Overall

Midterm

Presidential

Neutral/Not motivated (0-5)DK/Refused

Democratic candidate

80

82

79

7

8

6

13

10

14

Overall

Midterm

Presidential

Lean Democratic candidate RepublicanUndecided/Refused

20

Do you think Congressional Democrats’ economic policies will favor….?

Do you think Congressional Republicans’ economic policies will favor….?

Unlike Obama-Trump voters, drop-off voters overwhelmingly believe that Trump and Republicans’ policies favor the wealthy over other groups

The wealthy

Do you think Donald Trump’s economic policies will favor….?

The poor

92

21

5

44 33

Drop-off voters

Obama-Trump voters

All groups equally/DK The middle class

The wealthy The poorAll groups equally/DK The middle class

The wealthy The poorAll groups equally/DK The middle class

90

40

4

31

4

26

Drop-off voters

Obama-Trump voters

11

42

38

16

39

23

12

19

Drop-off voters

Obama-Trump voters

21

6967646260575757535353454438343426

1822

1717

1221

1825

2024

121824

3331

2734

9

7

16

17

25

20

18

12

24

19

22

24

22

23

25

27

25

76

131310

6101215

Making sure corporations pay their fair share of taxes

Repairing and modernizing our country's infrastructure

Increasing the development of renewable energy

Strengthening wage laws

Cutting interest rates for federal student loans

Providing training, apprentice programs for workers

Raising taxes on millionaires/wealthiest Americans

Reducing taxes on middle class/working families

Offering paid leave/tax credits for child care

Offering free tuition at public colleges/universities

Cracking down on employers not paying workers in full

Closing corporate and Wall Street tax loopholes

Creating a national health plan/single-payer plan

Reducing taxes on small businesses

Leaving the Affordable Care Act in place as is

Establishing path to citizenship for undocumented

Re-negotiating our trade deals with other countries

Making sure corporations pay their fair share and strengthening infrastructure, wage laws, and renewable energy are seen as economically beneficial

Economic Policy Effects

Very/Somewhat good for people like you

Bad for peoplelike you

Wouldn’t havemuch effect/DK

Drop-off Overall

Obama-Trump Gap

87 71 +16

89 72 +17

81 64 +17

79 61 +18

71

79 61 +18

75 61 +14

82 81 +1

73 47 +26

76

64

63

68

71 63 +8

66

61

59 67 -8

Net Good

22

15

23

15

23

24

20

40

10

16

26

26

30

38

20

14

15

14

19

21

22

26

61

46

45

32

25

20

14

Cutting spending on Medicare/Medicaid

Reducing regulations on businesses

Turning Medicare into a voucher system

Allowing construction of more oil/gas pipelines

Lowering taxes on American corporations

Stopping illegal immigration/deporting immigrants

Increasing taxes on foreign goods

Cutting spending on Medicare and Medicaid, reducing regulations on businesses, and turning Medicare into a voucher system are seen as the least beneficial economic policies

Economic Policy Effects

Good for people like you

Very/Somewhat bad for people like you

Wouldn’t have much effect/DK

Drop-off Overall

Obama-Trump Gap

75 56 +19

61 31 +30

59 42 +17

51

45 21 +24

42 9 +33

40 19 +21

Net Bad

23

Drop-off voters are deeply unfavorable to Donald Trump and volunteerhis presidency as the most important issue facing the country today

Most Important issue Facing the Country Today (OPEN END)

17

16

12

9

6

5

6

5

4

1

2

14

14

10

7

5

5

3

3

3

5

3

Donald Trump

Health care

Economy/jobs

Climate/environment

Foreign policy/relations/Russia

Race issues/racism

Income inequality/poverty/homelessness

Immigration

Divided nation

Education/Schools

Terrorism/National security

MidtermPresidential

“The environment which I see as a national securityissue. Climate refugees are going to create a crisis.”

– Presidential drop-off voter

"Donald Trump's lack of qualifications and lack ofintegrity. People in Congress who are supportinghim and not exercising any oversight.“

– Presidential drop-off voter

“Health insurance is the biggest problem. We needmore good people in congress.”

– Midterm drop-off voter

24

Of Trump’s main issue positions, Trump’s health care policies arethe most concerning to drop-off voters

Which two, if any, are the most concerning to you personally about Donald Trump and his administration?

52

44

39

30

24

54

41

33

31

26

His positions on health care

His positions on immigration

His positions on taxes and the budget

Midterm

Presidential

His positions on women's rights,abortion, and gender issues

49% among women58% among women under 5052% among college-educated white men50% college-educated white women

His positions on foreign policy and terrorism

57% among voters 50+57% among non-college voters61% among AA voters

49% among Hispanic voters43% among millennials

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Reaching Persuasion & Turnout Targets

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Four Key Points on How to Reach Target Voters

1. Social Media feeds, especially Facebook, came up as a critical source ofnews across all focus groups, persuasion and turnout.

2. Strong Obama-Trump voters consume a greater amount of partisan newsthan soft Obama-Trump voters.• 55% of strong supporters are regular talk radio listeners (vs. 36% of soft supporters)• 43% of strong supporters list Fox News as a key sources (vs. 34% of soft supporters)

3. Strong Obama-Trump voters are also much more “tuned in” than softsupporters and turnout targets• 36% of strong supporters follow DC news very closely vs. 19% of soft supporters

4. Obama-Trump voters were more skeptical than average focus grouprespondents and didn’t open up until we told them they were amongfellow Trump voters.

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