Apresentação do Presidente José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo no Ceraweek 2010 Global Oil Plenary...

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1 CERAWEEK 2010 Global Oil Plenary José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo Petrobras’s CEO March 9 th , 2010

Transcript of Apresentação do Presidente José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo no Ceraweek 2010 Global Oil Plenary...

Page 1: Apresentação do Presidente José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo no Ceraweek 2010  Global Oil Plenary em Houston - Texas (disponível somente em inglês)

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CERAWEEK 2010Global Oil Plenary

José Sergio Gabrielli de AzevedoPetrobras’s CEOMarch 9th, 2010

Page 2: Apresentação do Presidente José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo no Ceraweek 2010  Global Oil Plenary em Houston - Texas (disponível somente em inglês)

The presentation may contain forecasts about future events. Such forecasts merely reflect the expectations of the Company's management. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous expressions, are used to identify such forecasts. These predictions evidently involve risks and uncertainties, whether foreseen or not by the Company. Therefore, the future results of operations may differ from current expectations, and readers must not base their expectations exclusively on the information presented herein. The Company is not obliged to update the presentation/such forecasts in light of new information or future developments.

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and operating conditions. We use certain terms in this presentation, such as oil and gas resources, that the SEC’s guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC.

CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS

DISCLAIMER

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Page 3: Apresentação do Presidente José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo no Ceraweek 2010  Global Oil Plenary em Houston - Texas (disponível somente em inglês)

SCENARIOS FOR OIL DEMAND

(MM

bpd

)

How to fulfill the gap of oil production in the future

• Expansion of conventional resources in high potential regions

Iraq, Saudi Arabia, West Africa, Caspian Sea

• Expansion of conventional resources in little-explored areas North Africa, Siberia, other areas in the Middle East

• Expansion of production in Greenfield areas and/or environmentally sensitive areas Pre-Salt, Arctic, Ultra deep water (USA)

• Expansion of production of non conventional oils Oil Sands (Canada), Shale Oil (USA),OrinocoStrip (Venezuela), Synthetic products (XTL)

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Observed decline

SUPPLY CHALLENGES

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Page 4: Apresentação do Presidente José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo no Ceraweek 2010  Global Oil Plenary em Houston - Texas (disponível somente em inglês)

• Higher depth• Reservoir maturity • Non conventional resources• Extreme climate conditions

• Rigs and equipments• Human resources• Environmental constraints • Regulatory environment• Geopolitics• Financial resources

NEW DEMANDS FOR SUPPLIERS

New Barrels

Supply Challenges

•New engines• Alternative energy sources• Improvements in logistics• Scale of operations

Demand Adjustment

Expansion of production in greenfield areas and/or environmentally sensitive areas

Expansion of production of non conventional oils

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Page 5: Apresentação do Presidente José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo no Ceraweek 2010  Global Oil Plenary em Houston - Texas (disponível somente em inglês)

WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL

Source: Business as Usual Scenario Petrobras

o The demand for oil will continue to be predominant in 2030, however, biofuels will present the highest growth rate

515

685

2008 2030

+0.7% p.a.

+1.3% p.a.

+1.8% p.a.

+1.2% p.a.

+1.4% p.a.

+5.3% p.a.

+4.2% p.a.

+1.1% p.a.20082008

20302030

0,4%0,5%

33%

22%

26%

6%6%

7%

29%

22%

29%

6%

7%1%6%

1%

Q BTU

s

Change Change per annumper annum

Biomass

Solar, windgeothermal

Biofuels

Hydro

Nuclear

Coal

Gas

Oil

+1.3% +1.3% p.yp.y..

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Page 6: Apresentação do Presidente José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo no Ceraweek 2010  Global Oil Plenary em Houston - Texas (disponível somente em inglês)

StepsTechnology Evolution

2006 - 2010 2011 - 2015 2016 - 2021Dissemination of technologyDeployment of technology

Prototype (Demonstration) Research & Development Recombinant microorganism - C5 and C6 fermentation

Cellulose production

Business StrategySynergy with Distillery - Mill

Next Generation Ethanol

• World• Brazil

DEVELOPMENT OF NEXT GENERATION ETHANOL PRODUCTION PROCESSES

Economic efficiency

Trends:

o On the short term: investment is concentrated on ethanol from 1st generation from sugar cane

o On the long term: increases in Research and Development will help to develop 2nd generation ethanol

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Page 7: Apresentação do Presidente José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo no Ceraweek 2010  Global Oil Plenary em Houston - Texas (disponível somente em inglês)

SHARE OF LIGHT VEHICLES SALES BY ENGINE TECHNOLOGY

Source: Business as Usual Scenario Petrobras7

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2009 20 30 2009 20 30 2009 20 30

ICE Gasoline ICE Flexfuel ICE DieselHybrid Plug-in Electric

Page 8: Apresentação do Presidente José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo no Ceraweek 2010  Global Oil Plenary em Houston - Texas (disponível somente em inglês)

1.335

2324424

1.500

2523522

1.540

25116185

1.493

26516894

1.684

27416396

1.778

277142101

1.792

273126110

1.855

321124100

1,971

31614197

2.680

634

210

131

3.920

1.177

409

223

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ..... 2013 2020.....

9.7% p.y.

2,4002,3012,2972,2172,0202,0371,8101,635

7.7% p.y.

3,655

5,729

Oil production - Brazil Gas production - Brazil Oil production - International Gas production - International

2,525

o Petrobras' production growth will contribute to supply the oil demand

PETROBRAS’ PRODUCTION GROWTH

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Petrobras Total Production (x 1000 boe/d)

1,183

Pre-Salt

152 Pre-Salt

5.6% p.y.

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THE PRE-SALT REGION

Legend:

Drilled wells (BR non operator)Drilled wells (BR operator)Pre-Salt reservoirsProduction fieldsExploratory blocks

Total Area: 149,000 km2Area Under Concession: 41,772 km2 (28%)

Area Not Under Concession: 107,228 km² (72%)Area With Petrobras Interest: 35,739 km2 (24%)

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18%

20%

36%

26%

Gathering Completion

Drilling Units

PRE-SALT CAPEX DISTRIBUTION

Page 11: Apresentação do Presidente José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo no Ceraweek 2010  Global Oil Plenary em Houston - Texas (disponível somente em inglês)

CO2 separation / capture technology

Offshore logistical hub

Floating LNGOffshore gas

storage in salt caves

Offshore produced fluid handling hubs

Water-alternating-gas (HC or CO2)

injectionExtended-reach

and deviated wells (salt)

Dry completion systems (SPAR, TLP, FPDSO, …)

Reservoir Characterization

CO2 storage in saline aquifers,

depleted fields, salt caves

Deepwater CALM buoy

Flow Assurance and formation

damage control

PLANSAL - Pre-Salt Development Master Plan

MAJOR TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS UNDER EVALUATION

Pre-Salt Definitive

Development

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Page 12: Apresentação do Presidente José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo no Ceraweek 2010  Global Oil Plenary em Houston - Texas (disponível somente em inglês)

There will be no regulatory changes in the areas under concession, including the pre-salt area already granted

Petrobras 100%

Petrobras Operator

Other companies trough Bidding Process

Transfer of Rights with compensation

Production Sharing

AgreementPre-salt

andStrategic Areas

NEW REGULATORY MODEL

Other AreasCurrent

Concession Model

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Page 13: Apresentação do Presidente José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo no Ceraweek 2010  Global Oil Plenary em Houston - Texas (disponível somente em inglês)

FINAL REMARKS

• Challenging Environments• Higher Costs• High level of uncertainty

• Existing stock of appliances x pace of substitution• Technology Development• Policy Incentives and Regulation

New Barrels

DemandAdjustment

Page 14: Apresentação do Presidente José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo no Ceraweek 2010  Global Oil Plenary em Houston - Texas (disponível somente em inglês)

Petrobras in Petrobras in thethe GulfGulf ofof MexicoMexico

• First FPSO and Shuttle Tanker in the US GoM:Cascade and Chinook Fields operated by Petrobras 1st oil in mid 2010

• Technologies that are new to the US GoM:FSHR - Free Standing Hybrid RisersSTMZ - Single Trip Multi-Zone Fracturing of Wells

• Strong presence in Lower Tertiary Discoveries:Cascade, Chinook, St Malo, Stones and Tiber

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Thank You