Approaches to Evidence-Based Evaluation of Puget Sound ...
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Approaches to Evidence-Based Evaluation of Puget Sound Ecosystem Recovery
Leska Fore, Puget Sound Partnership Constance Sullivan, Puget Sound Institute Ken Dzinbal, Puget Sound Partnership Scott Collyard, Dept. of Ecology & Many Contributors CEER, New Orleans, LA July 29, 2014
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Puget Sound Basin • 4.1 million people now, 5.4 million in 10 years • ~1.5 million people live in cities on shoreline
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Puget Sound Basin • > 900 restoration projects, $700M cost
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The Action Agenda A Road Map for Restoring Puget Sound
• Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan (CCMP)
• Framework for action, coordination and accountability
• Establishes recovery targets • Tracks 21 indicators and >300 actions
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Many Partners
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How Are Our Actions Making a Difference?
1) Testing: Did the actions work? 2) Communication: Who needs to know?
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Effectiveness Monitoring
Before Action After
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• Meta-analysis used widely in education and medical research
• Change statistics are standardized and unitless
• Can compare different indicators across projects
• Allows us to evaluate effectiveness of different actions
Meta-analysis: Before and After Statistics
TempAfter – TempBefore
(Pooled Variance)0.5 Change = = Cohen’s d
Change statistic, “Cohen’s d”, is difference of the means divided by the standard deviation
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* Effect size +/- 90% CI
Ban on Tributyltin (anti-fouling paint) Reduced toxics in Mussels around Puget Sound
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Tributyltin (Mussel)
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* Effect size +/- 90% CI
Ban on Tributyltin (anti-fouling paint) Reduced toxics in Mussels around Puget Sound
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Tributyltin (Mussel)
Interpretation Large effect size >0.8 Medium 0.2 – 0.8 Small effect < 0.2
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Same actions, different variables, one locations Samish Bay Water Quality Clean up
Not effective/ Effect Size Effective/ Worsening Improving
Farm plans, septic inspections, & BMPs reduced fecals, and reduced shellfish bed closures
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Different actions, different variables, multiple locations Puget Sound studies
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Effectiveness Monitoring & the Action Agenda
• Nearshore habitat restoration increased benthic taxa richness
B2. Protect and restore nearshore and estuary ecosystems
• Pesticide partial ban not effective; Eagle Harbor cap improved fish health; TBT ban was effective
C1. Prevent, reduce, and control the sources of toxic contaminants entering Puget Sound
• Lake treatments reduced Phosphorus A2. Protect and restore upland, freshwater, and riparian ecosystems • PIC programs in Liberty Bay reduced fecals in bays and streams
C7. Ensure abundant, healthy shellfish for ecosystem health and for commercial, subsistence, and recreational harvest consistent with ecosystem protection
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Did action work?
Who needs to know?
Effectiveness Monitoring in the Adaptive Management Cycle
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Conclusions
• Effectiveness results buried in long, technical reports
• Don’t need to measure same variable across projects, just need same measure before and after action
• Lots of data to evaluate effectiveness of actions and compare costs
• Communication from technical to policy folks is a challenge
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Session Question • What aspects of your approach might be generally
applicable to other large-scale ecosystem restoration programs? – Meta-analysis provides a standard measure of
effectiveness
– Can compare results across diverse projects
– Provides a way to roll up results from individual projects
– Don’t need to wait for standardization of sampling protocols