Approach for preparing back-seriespibphoto.nic.in/documents/rlink/2018/nov/p2018112802.pdf ·...
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Approach for preparing back-series • Methodology for preparing the back-series estimates for the years 2004-05 to 2010-11 is largely the same as the methodology followed in the new base (2011-12) • In certain cases, owing to the limitations of the availability of data, splicing method or ratios observed in the estimates in base year 2011-12 have been applied as appropriate • Methodology was discussed in detail by ACNAS before adopting • For the years prior to previous base year (2004-05), the estimates would be prepared using the splicing technique
Transcript of Approach for preparing back-seriespibphoto.nic.in/documents/rlink/2018/nov/p2018112802.pdf ·...
Approach for preparing back-series
• Methodology for preparing the back-series estimates for the years 2004-05 to 2010-11 is largely the same as the methodology followed in the new base (2011-12)
• In certain cases, owing to the limitations of the availability of data, splicing method or ratios observed in the estimates in base year 2011-12 have been applied as appropriate
• Methodology was discussed in detail by ACNAS before adopting
• For the years prior to previous base year (2004-05), the estimates would be prepared using the splicing technique
1. Improvement in Methodology
1.1 Implementation of International Guidelines (SNA 2008)
– Estimation by different institutional sectors – Non Financial and financial Corporations, General Government & Households: Distinction between General Government & Public Corporations
– Valuation of GVA at basic prices
– Treatment of quasi corporations : same as corporations
– Research & Development expenses treated as part of Capital Formation
– Reserve Bank of India : treated as a non-market enterprise
– Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured (FISIM) computed using Reference Rate method
1.2 Other Changes
– Use of Enterprise Approach
– Modified Labour Input Method
– Use of Sales tax indicator for unincorporated trade instead of GTI index
– Use of Sector specific CPIs used (Health, Education, Transport & Comm)
– Inclusion of construction materials as basic materials (bitumen, glass) & indirect estimate of sand
Major Highlights of Revision: 2011-12
Major Highlights of Revision -2011-12
2. Use of Latest Data Sources • Rebasing to 2011-12 by using recent survey /census data & type
studies for rebasing eg. NSS 68th Round (2011-12) survey on Employment & Unemployment & Consumer Expenditure, NSS 67th Round (2010-11) Survey on Unincorporated Non- agricultural Enterprises (Excluding Construction)
• Use of MCA 21 database
• New series of WPI & CPI in lieu of CPI-AL/IW
3. Improvement in Coverage • Inclusion of stock brokers, stock exchanges, asset management
companies, additional mutual funds and pension funds, regulatory bodies like SEBI, PFRDA & IRDA in Financial sector
• Improvements in coverage of local bodies and autonomous institutions
Methodology for 2004-05 Base
– Registered Manufacturing : ASI & budget documents, unregistered manufacturing - NSS 62nd Round estimates subsequently moved by IIP & WPI
– Unorganised manufacturing and services using Labour Input method
– Overall CPI was used
– Gross Trading Income (GTI) Index used to move unorganised sector trade , repair & maintenance, hotels & restaurants
– Private Corporate Sector – Trade, Repair and Maintenance, Communication, Real Estate moved with RBI growth rates (Study on company finances)
– Banking Department of Reserve Bank of India (RBI was treated as Market Enterprise
32.4 36.9 42.9
49.9 56.3
64.8
77.8
90.1
31.9 36.3 42.5
49.0 55.1
63.7
76.3 87.4
99.4
112.3
124.7
137.6
152.5
167.7
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1802
00
4-0
5
20
05
-06
20
06
-07
20
07
-08
20
08
-09
20
09
-10
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
PE
GD
P a
t cu
rre
nt
pri
ces
(Rs.
Lak
h C
rore
)
Comparison of GDP at Current Prices (Rs. Lakh Crore)
Base 2004-05 Base 2011-12
29.7 33.9 39.5
45.8 53.0
61.1
72.5
83.9
29.0 33.3
39.0 44.9
51.7
59.7
70.8
81.1
92.0
103.6
115.0
125.7
138.4
151.8
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1602
00
4-0
5
20
05
-06
20
06
-07
20
07
-08
20
08
-09
20
09
-10
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
PE
GV
A a
t cu
rre
nt
pri
ces
(Rs.
Lak
h C
rore
) Comparison of GVA at Current Prices (Rs. Lakh Crore)
Base 2004-05 Base 2011-12
32.4 35.4
38.7 42.5 44.2
47.9 52.8
56.3 54.8 59.1
63.9 68.8 70.9
76.5
83.0 87.4
92.1
98.0
105.3
113.9
122.0
130.1
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
20
04
-05
20
05
-06
20
06
-07
20
07
-08
20
08
-09
20
09
-10
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
PE
GD
P a
t co
nst
ant
pri
ces
(Rs.
Lak
h C
rore
)
Comparison of GDP at Constant Prices (Rs. Lakh Crore)
Base 2004-05 Base 2011-12
29.7 32.5
35.6 39.0
41.6 45.2
49.2 52.5
50.9 55.1
59.6 64.0
66.7 71.3
77.0
81.1 85.5 90.6
97.1
105.0
112.5
119.8
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
20
04
-05
20
05
-06
20
06
-07
20
07
-08
20
08
-09
20
09
-10
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
PE
GV
A a
t co
nst
ant
pri
ces
(Rs.
Lak
h C
rore
)
Comparison of GVA at Constant Prices (Rs. Lakh Crore)
Base 2004-05 Base 2011-12
GDP Growth Rates (in %) at Constant Prices - 2004-05 Series and 2011-12 Series
9.3 9.3 9.8
3.9
8.5
10.3
6.6 7.9 8.1
7.7
3.1
7.9 8.5
5.2 5.5
6.4
7.4 8.2
7.1 6.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
20
05
-06
20
06
-07
20
07
-08
20
08
-09
20
09
-10
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
PE
GD
P G
row
th r
ate
s (i
n %
)
Growth Rates of GDP at Constant Prices (in %)
Base 2004-05 Base 2011-12
GVA Growth Rates (in %) at Constant Prices - 2004-05 Series and 2011-12 Series
9.5 9.6 9.3
6.7
8.6 8.9
6.7 8.3 8.1
7.4
4.3
6.9
8.0
5.2 5.4 6.1
7.2 8.1
7.1 6.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
20
05
-06
20
06
-07
20
07
-08
20
08
-09
20
09
-10
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
PE
GV
A G
row
th R
ate(
in %
)
GVA Growth Rates (%) of Total Economy at Constant Prices
Base 2004-05 Base 2011-12
Contribution of Different Sectors in Overall Growth Rates
4.3 3.3 3.6
3.1 4.2 3.8
2.9
2.6 3.9
2.4
1.4
2.6
2.1
1.9
1.4 0.9
1.3
-0.2
0.1 2.1
0.5
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Contribution of Different Sectors in Overall
Growth Rates -2011-12 prices Tertiary SecondaryPrimary
5.8 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.9 5.5
3.8
2.7 3.2 2.7
1.2
2.4 2.0
2.2
1.0 1.0 1.1
0.1
0.3 1.4
0.7
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Contribution of Different Sectors in
Overall Growth Rates - 2004-05 prices Tertiary SecondaryPrimary
Contribution of Tertiary Sector in Overall Growth Rates
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
Trade, Repair, Hotels and Restaurants
2004-05 series 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.0 1.3 2.0 0.2
2011-12 series 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.3 1.6 0.6
Transport, storage, communication & services related to broadcasting
2004-05 series 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.0
2011-12 series 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.5
Financial services
2004-05 series 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.1
2011-12 series 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2
Others
2004-05 series 1.9 1.2 1.6 2.5 2.3 1.1 1.5
2011-12 series 2.0 1.0 1.8 2.3 2.7 1.5 1.6
GVA Tertiary Sector
2004-05 series 5.8 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.9 5.5 3.8
2011-12 series 4.3 3.3 3.6 3.1 4.2 3.8 2.9
Primary Sector :Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, Mining and Quarrying
21.9 21.6 21.0 21.0
20.4 20.3 21.0
20.5
22.8 22.6 21.6 21.6 21.1 21.1
21.9 21.7 21.3 21.4
20.9 20.1 20.4
19.6
10
15
20
25
30
20
04
-05
20
05
-06
20
06
-07
20
07
-08
20
08
-09
20
09
-10
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
PE
Shar
e (
in %
)
Share of Primary Sector in Total GVA (%) at Current Prices
Base 2004-05 Base 2011-12
Growth in Primary Sector :Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, Mining and Quarrying
4.6
4.6 5.5
0.4 1.5
8.3 4.4
5.0
3.2
5.4
-0.6
0.3
9.6
2.0 1.4
4.8
1.2
2.6
7.4
3.3
-5
0
5
10
15
20
05
-06
20
06
-07
20
07
-08
20
08
-09
20
09
-10
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
PE
GV
A G
row
th R
ate(
in %
)
Growth Rates (%) of Primary Sector at Constant Prices
Base 2004-05 Base 2011-12
Secondary Sector :Manufacturing, Electricity, Gas, Water Supply, Remediation Services and Construction
25.1 25.3 26.1 26.3 25.7 25.2
24.3 24.6
28.8 28.9 30.4 30.4 30.0 29.9 29.6
29.3
28.7 27.9 27.3 27.4 26.9 26.6
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
20
04
-05
20
05
-06
20
06
-07
20
07
-08
20
08
-09
20
09
-10
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
PE
Shar
e (
in %
)
Share of Secondary Sector in Total GVA (%) at Current Prices
Base 2004-05 Base 2011-12
Growth In Secondary Sector :Manufacturing, Electricity, Gas, Water Supply, Remediation Services and Construction
10.7
12.7 10.3
4.7
9.5
7.6 8.5 10.2
14.7
8.6 5.0 9.2
7.1
6.6 3.6
4.2
6.7
9.4
6.1 5.8
0
5
10
15
20
20
05
-06
20
06
-07
20
07
-08
20
08
-09
20
09
-10
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
PE
GV
A G
row
th R
ate(
in %
)
Growth Rates (%) of Secondary Sector at Constant Prices
Base 2004-05 Base 2011-12
Tertiary Sector :Trade, Repair, Hotels & Restaurants, Transport, Storage, Communication, Broadcasting, Financial Services, Real Estate, Ownership of Dwelling, Professional Services, Public Administration and
Defence, Other Services
53.0 53.1 52.9 52.7 53.9 54.5 54.6 54.9
48.4 48.5 48.0 48.0 48.9 49.0 48.5 49.0
50.0 50.6 51.8 52.5 52.8
53.9
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
20
04
-05
20
05
-06
20
06
-07
20
07
-08
20
08
-09
20
09
-10
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
PE
Shar
e (
in %
)
Share of Tertiary Sector in Total GVA (%) at Current Prices
Base 2004-05 Base 2011-12
Growth In Tertiary Sector :Trade, Repair, Hotels & Restaurants, Transport, Storage, Communication, Broadcasting, Financial Services, Real Estate, Ownership of Dwelling, Professional Services, Public
Administration and Defence, Other Services
10.9 10.1 10.3 10.0
10.5 9.7
6.6 9.1
7.0 7.8
6.5
8.7 7.8
5.9
8.3
7.7
9.8 9.6
7.5 7.9
0
5
10
15
20
20
05
-06
20
06
-07
20
07
-08
20
08
-09
20
09
-10
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
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PE
GV
A G
row
th R
ate(
in %
)
Growth Rates (%) of Tertiary Sector at Constant Prices
Base 2004-05 Base 2011-12
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (Current Prices)
28.72
30.33
31.29
32.92 32.35
31.74
30.92 31.76
30.71
32.76
33.58
35.81
34.72 33.95
33.23
34.31
33.44
31.30
30.08
28.47 28.53 28.49
25
30
35
40
20
04
-05
20
05
-06
20
06
-07
20
07
-08
20
08
-09
20
09
-10
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
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PE
Rat
es (
% o
f G
DP
)
Rates of GFCF to GDP at Current Prices (in %)
Base 2004-05 Base 2011-12
Share of Public GFCF in GDP (Current Prices)
7.06
7.50
8.01 8.22
8.75 8.57
8.01
7.34
7.02 7.09 7.00
7.33 7.16
6.91
7.35
7.91 8.05
8.54 8.40
7.83
7.09
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
8.00
8.50
9.00
20
04
-05
20
05
-06
20
06
-07
20
07
-08
20
08
-09
20
09
-10
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
Share of Public GFCF in GDP (%) (BS) Share of Public GFCF in GDP (%) (2004-05 series)
Share of Public GFCF in GDP
22.98 22.88 23.85
22.95
25.19 25.25 24.09
21.39 20.99
22.67 23.26
25.76
25.08
24.07 24.22
25.27 24.45
26.40 26.46
25.31
22.34
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
22.00
24.00
26.00
28.00
30.00
20
04
-05
20
05
-06
20
06
-07
20
07
-08
20
08
-09
20
09
-10
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
%age Share of Public Sector in Total GFCF at Current Prices
Percentage share of Public GFCF in Total GFCF (BS Current)
Percentage share of Public GFCF in Total GFCF (2004-05 series)
Share (%) of Expenditure Components in GDP – Base 2004-05
59.1 58.3 57.7 57.0 57.7 57.2 56.0 57.1
32.5 34.3 35.9 38.0 35.5 36.3 36.5 36.4
-1.8 -2.7 -3.2 -4.0 -5.1 -5.4 -4.4 -6.3
10.9 10.9 10.3 10.3 10.9 11.9 11.4 11.4
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
Shar
e (
%)
PFCE GFCF + CIS + Valuables Net Exports GFCE
Share (%) of Expenditure Components in GDP – Base 2011-12
58.4 57.4 56.1 55.8 56.7 56.0 54.7 56.2 56.5 57.6 58.1 58.8 59.0 59.1
35.1 37.4 39.0 42.0 38.4 39.3 39.8 39.6 38.3 34.0 34.3 31.8 30.3 30.6
-1.8 -2.8 -3.2 -4.1 -5.2 -5.5 -4.5 -6.5 -6.7 -3.0 -3.0 -2.3 -1.7 -3.0
10.4 10.4 9.8 9.9 10.5 11.5 11.0 11.1 10.7 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.9 11.4
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
20
04
-05
20
05
-06
20
06
-07
20
07
-08
20
08
-09
20
09
-10
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
PE
Shar
e (
%)
PFCE GFCF + CIS + Valuables Net Exports GFCE
Summary of Major Changes in Methodology
• Improvement in methodology
• Use of latest survey results
• Use of new, more regular and reliable data sources
• Improvement in Coverage
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