Applying Commodity Market Information to Farm & Market

Decisions,

Dr. Terry Crawford,

Department of Agricultural Economics, and Agricultural Business

New Mexico State University

Sources of Market Information

• USDA—• Ag. Marketing Service– Markets prices and shipments

• Natl. Ag. Statistic Service– Monthly, and annual data on production, inventory acreage, and prices. Data bases.

• OCE –Baseline 10 year forecast, monthly World Ag. Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

• Economic Research Service—Commodity new letters, Yearbooks, Background

• Foreign Ag. Service– Trade Data, Country profiles and Embassy Reports, Trade leads, etc.

Sources of Market Information• Commerce Dept.----

• Census

• Survey of Current Business

• Input-Output data,

USDA AMS Market News

• The primary function of the Livestock, Poultry, and Grain Market News Division (LPGMN) of the Livestock, Poultry, and Seed Program (LPS) is to compile and disseminate information that will aid producers, consumers, and distributors in the sale and purchase of livestock, meat, poultry, eggs, grains, and their related products regionally, nationally and internationally

Livestock, Poultry, and Grain Market News

•Cattle•Goats•Sheep•Swine•Meat

•Feedstuffs•Grains•Hay

•Bioenergy•International•Organic•Other

•Poultry & Eggs•Local & Regiona

Reports

Grain Reports

• Rye, Oats, Barley and Flaxseed Inspected and/or Weighed for Export by Region and Port Area (Jun-Nov)

• Rye, Oats, Barley and Flaxseed Inspected and/or Weighed for Export by Country of Destination (Jun-Nov)

• Rye, Oats, Barley, and Flaxseed Inspected and/or Weighed for Export by Region and Port Area (Jun-May)

• Rye, Oats, Barley, and Flaxseed Inspected and/or Weighed for Export by Country of Destination (Jun-May)

• Semi-Annual Grains Inspected and/or Weighed for Export by Region and Port Area (Jan-Jun)

• Semi-Annual Grains Inspected and/or Weighed for Export by Region and Country of Destination (Jan-Jun)

• Semi-Annual Wheat Inspected and/or Weighed for Export by Class, Region, and Port Area (Jan-Jun)

• Semi-Annual Wheat Inspected and/or Weighed for Export by Class, Region, and Country of Destination (Jan-Jun)

• Soybean Crush Report (Thu)

• Weekly National Bean, Pea & Lentil Market Review (Tue)

• Weekly National Grain Market Review (Fri)

• Wheat Inspected and/or Weighed for Export by Class, Region and Country of Destination (Jun-Nov)

• Wheat Inspected and/or Weighed for Export by Class, Region and Port Area (Jun-Nov)

• Wheat Inspected and/or Weighed for Export by Class, Region, and Country of Destination (Monthly)

• Wheat Inspected and/or Weighed for Export by Class, Region, and Country of Destination (Jun-May)

• Wheat Inspected and/or Weighed for Export by Class, Region, and Port Area (Monthly)

• Wheat Inspected and/or Weighed for Export by Class, Region, and Port Area (Jun-May)

• Wheat Inspected for Export by Class & Region (Monthly)

•

Continued

• Bean Market News USDA Livestock and Grain Market News Phone: (970) 353-9750 Fax (970) 353-9790 3459 W. 20th St, Suite 223A, Greeley, CO 80634 FOB Dealer Selling Prices Per 100 Lbs. Vol. 51 No. 04 Date January 27, 2015 Carlot and truck lot (Basis U.S. No. 1's Cleaned and Bagged) M -Mostly, Ltd. - Limited, NC - New Crop, OC - Old Crop, V- Very Randall Bisel, Market Reporting Assistant/Editor Jonathan Gittlein, Bean Market Reporter ISSN - 1066-0607 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00 $35.00 $40.00 $45.00 $50.00 $55.00 $60.00 SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG DEALER PINTOS - NORTH DAKOTA/WYOMING 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 5 Year Avg $0.00 $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00 $35.00 $40.00 $45.00 $50.00 $55.00 $60.00 $65.00 $70.00 SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG DEALER BABY LIMA - CALIFORINA 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 10 Year Avg

USDA to Release New Long-Term Agricultural Projections • USDA to Release New Long-Term Agricultural Projections

• WASHINGTON, Feb. 2, 2015--The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release its 10-year agricultural projections on Feb. 11, 2015, at 11:00 a.m. EST. USDA's Agricultural Projections to 2024 will be posted to the Office of the Chief Economist's (OCE) website at www.usda.gov/oce and available in MS Word and PDF formats. Projections data will be available as Excel spreadsheets, as well. Selected tables from the projections report were made available on Dec. 18, 2014.

• USDA publishes the projections each year in February. The projections are developed by interagency committees in USDA, with the Economic Research Service (ERS) having the lead role in the preparation of the report. The new projections cover crop and livestock commodities, agricultural trade and aggregate indicators, such as farm income, through 2024. The projections do not represent a USDA forecast, but a conditional, long-run scenario based on specific assumptions about farm policy, weather, the economy and international developments. Normal weather is assumed throughout the projection period. The projections were prepared during October through December 2014 and reflect the Agricultural Act of 2014.

• Background on USDA's long-term projections and past issues of the report are available on the ERS website at www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/agricultural-baseline-projections.aspx.

SJ_GR851St. Joseph, MO Fri Jan 30, 2015 USDA-MO Dept of Ag Market News

WEEKLY NATIONAL GRAIN MARKET REVIEW

Compared to last week, grain and soybean bids were lower. Corn saw pressure from favorable crop conditions in South America. Wheat had losses on weak export demand and plentiful world supplies. The higher dollar also triggered losses in the trading pits. Soybeans saw spillover pressure from other grains and better than average yields in South America. Weekly export sales for corn was listed at a total of 42.7 mb (1,084,200 mt), with 42.1 mb (1,068,200 mt) for the 2014-2015 marketing year. Export sales for soybeans came in at 33.4 mb (909,000 mt) with 32.6 mb (888,200 mt) for the 2014-2015 marketing year. Wheat export sales showed a total of 20.8 mb (565,400 mt), with 20.0 mb (544,400 mt) for the 2014-2015 marketing year. Wheat was mostly 18-26 cents lower. Corn was mostly 10-15 cents lower. Sorghum 21-22 cents lower. Soybeans traded 3-9 cents lower.

WHEAT: Kansas City US No 1 Hard Red Winter, ordinary protein rail bid was 18 3/4 to 20 3/4 cents lower from 6.36-6.52 per bushel. Kansas City US No 2 Soft Red winter rail bid was not quoted. St. Louis truck US No 2 Soft Red Winter terminal bid was 26 cents lower from 5.07-5.17 per bushel. Minneapolis and Duluth US No 1 Dark Northern Spring, 14.0 to 14.5 percent protein rail, was 1 1/4 21 1/4 cents lower at 7.04 1/4 per bushel. Portland US Soft White wheat rail was not available per bushel.

CORN: Kansas City US No 2 rail White Corn was 13 to 15 cents lower from 3.58-3.64 per bushel. Kansas City US No 2 truck Yellow Corn was 10 1/4 cents lower from 3.59 1/2-3.61 1/2 per bushel. Omaha corn was 4 to 15 cents lower at 3.57 per bushel. Chicago US No 2 Yellow Corn was 12 1/4 cents lower from 3.53 1/2-3.75 1/2 per bushel. Toledo US No 2 rail Yellow corn was 10 1/4 to 11 1/2 cents lower from 3.52 1/2-3.57 1/2 per bushel. Minneapolis US No 2 Yellow corn rail was 12 1/4 cents lower at 3.42 1/2 per bushel.

OATS AND BARLEY: US 2 or Better oats, rail bid to arrive at Minneapolis 20 day was 8 1/2 cents lower from 2.97 1/2-3.32 1/2 per bushel. US No 3 or better rail malting Barley, 70 percent or better plump out of Minneapolis was 35 cents lower at 6.75 per bushel. Portland US 2 Barley, unit trains and Barges-export was not available.

SORGHUM: US No 2 yellow truck, Kansas City was 22 cents lower at 6.63 per cwt. Texas High Plains US No 2 yellow sorghum (prices paid or bid to the farmer, fob elevator) was 21 to 22 cents lower from 6.63-7.17 per cwt.

OILSEEDS: Minneapolis Yellow truck soybeans were 8 1/2 cents lower at 9.13 1/4 per bushel. Illinois Processors US No 1 Yellow truck soybeans were 8 1/2 to 8 1/2 cents lower from 9.65 1/4-9.83 1/4 per bushel. Kansas City US No 2 Yellow truck soybeans were 3 1/2 cents lower at 9.68 1/4 per bushel. Illinois 48 percent Soybean meal, processor rail bid was 7.80 higher from 365.90-372.90 per ton. Central Illinois Crude Soybean oil processor bid was 243 to 258 points lower from 29.04-30.04 cents per pound.

SOURCE: USDA-MO Dept of Ag Market News Service, St Joseph, MO Baldemar Ortiz, Market Reporter (816)676-7000 www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/SJ_GR851.txtFor more Grain Market News:www.ams.usda.gov/lsg/mncs/ls_grain.htm

Livestock and Grain Hay Reports

Alabama Southeast Hay Report (Thu) Arthur Sale Barn Weekly Hay Arthur, IL (Mon)California Weekly Hay Report (Thu) Colorado Weekly Hay Report (Thu)Hamilton's Madison Co, IL AG Hay Auction (Seasonal-Mon) Idaho Weekly Hay Report (Fri)KS Hay Report (Tue) National Biomass Report (Weekly) MO Weekly Hay Summary (Thu)Monthly IL Hay Market Report (1st Fri) MT Weekly Hay Report (Fri)National Feed and Seed Weekly Summary PDF NE - IA Weekly Hay Review (Fri)NM Hay Report (Seasonal) OK Weekly Hay Report (Thu)Oregon Weekly Hay Report (Fri) Pennsylvania Weekly Hay Report (Mon)Pipestone, MN Hay & Straw Auction (Wed) Reel’s Weekly Hay Auction / Congerville (Wed)Rock Valley IA Hay Auction (Tue) Rock Valley IA Hay Auction (Fri)SD Corsica Hay Auction (Tue) SD East River Market Wkly Review (Fri)TX Weekly Hay Report (Fri) United Producers Weekly Hay Shelbyville, IL (Tue)UT Weekly Hay Summary (Thu) VA Weekly Hay ReportValley Video and Internet Hay Auction (Monthly) Washington-Oregon (Columbia Basin) Weekly Hay Report (Fri)Weekly Northwest Commodity Corner PDF WY, W NE & SW SD Weekly Hay Report (Thu)

Contracted Hay, Haylage, and Corn SilageFob/ Total Hay Bale RFV/DM/Del Price Tons Type Size NEL

No reported contract quotes.

Contracts are not indicative to other regions of the state and do not pertain to the cash market. The term "Season" Means that as long as the hay meets the contract requirements the buyer takes delivery on every cutting in that particular year. All contracts are marketed on a per ton basis. Prices figured on a per ton basis or a per point basis (.xx times the RFV).

* - When priced on a per point basis.* - NEL basis for corn silage

Haylage is based on 88 percent dry matter. Haylage formula most often used (Haylage wet ton x percent dry matter/88 percent = 12 percent baled hay). Haylage to be cut on an approximate 28 to 32 day cutting rotation. Quoted standing in the field.

Corn Silage 30-32 percent dry matter. Based at .70 to .72 net energy for lactation (NEL). Silage can be quoted standing in the field or delivered to the pit. ** All information is a basis for every contract and applies unless otherwise stated**

Alfalfa guidelines (domestic livestock use and not more than 10 pct grass)Quality ADF NDF RFV TDN-100 pct TDN-90 pct CPSupreme <27 <34 >185 >62 >55.9 >22Premium 27-29 34-36 170-185 60.5-62 54.5-55.9 20-22Good 29-32 36-40 150-170 58-60 52.5-54.5 18-20Fair 32-35 40-44 130-150 56-58 50.5-52.5 16-18Utility >35 >44 <130 <56 <50.5 <16

RFV calculated using the WI/MN formula. TDN calculated using the western formula. Quantitative factors are approximate and many factors can affect feeding value. Values based on 100 pct dry matter. Quantitative factors are approximate, and many factors can affect feeding value. Values based on 100 pct dry matter. End usage may influence hay price or value more than testing results.

Grass Hay guidelinesQuality Crude Protein Percent Premium Over 13Good 9-13Fair 5-9Utility Under 5

Source: USDA-CO Dept of Ag Market News Service, Greeley, COHeath Dewey 970-353-9750 Greeley.LGMN@ams.usda.govwww.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/GL_GR310.txthttp://marketnews.usda.gov/portal/lg

Example of ERS Commodity Newsletters

• Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: January 2015

• by Kenneth Mathews and Mildred Haley

• Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook No. (LDPM-247) 21 pp, January 2015

• The Livestock, Dairy, & Poultry Outlook for January 2015 describes events and outlook based on projections from USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report for beef, pork, lamb, poultry, eggs, and dairy production and trade.

• Keywords: Livestock, dairy, poultry, sheep, lamb, beef, pork, cattle, hogs, milk, trade, exports, imports, production, red meats

• In this publication...

• Entire report, 651 kb

• Dairy Forecasts, 46 kb

• U.S. red meat and poultry forecasts, 47 kb

Wheat Outlook: January 2015

by Gary Vocke and Olga LiefertWheat Outlook No. (WHS-15A) 21 pp, January 2015

The January 2015 outlook for both the U.S. and global wheat markets is analyzed based on the latest projections contained in USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

Keywords: Wheat, United States, world, production, acres, trade, price, cost, exports, imports, consumption, food, flour, feed, world

In this publication...

Entire report, 237 kbTable 1--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance , 27 kbTable 2--Wheat by class: U.S. market year supply and disappearance , 29 kbTable 3--Wheat: U.S. quarterly supply and disappearance (million bushels) , 31 kbTable 4--Wheat: Monthly food disappearance estimates (1,000 grain-equivalent bushels) , 30 kbTable 5--Wheat: National average price received by farmers (dollars per bushel) , 24 kbTable 6--Wheat: National average prices received by farmers by class (dollars per bushel) , 24 kbTable 7--Wheat: Average cash grain bids at principal markets , 30 kbTable 8--Wheat: U.S. exports and imports for last 6 months (1,000 bushels) , 24 kbTable 9--Wheat: U.S. exports, Census and export sales comparison (1,000 metric tons), 26 kbAll nine tables, 92 kb

Livestock Cattle Reports

Slaughter Cattle Reports Slaughter Cattle SummarySlaughter Cattle AuctionsNational Direct Slaughter Cattle ReportsRegional Direct Slaughter Cattle ReportsState Direct Slaughter Cattle ReportsSlaughter Cattle Internet and Video

Feeder and Replacement Cattle Reports Feeder Cattle Summary ReportsFeeder and Replacement Cattle AuctionsDirect Feeder Cattle ReportsFeeder Cattle Internet and Video Auctions

Shipping Point Reports cover major fruit and vegetable growing areas and provide rail and truckshipment information. The reports include F.O.B., or shipping point, prices that represent the mostuniform level of trading. Prices are reported daily by type of sale and indicate price at which the productwas sold.

The National F.O.B. Review is a report that contains all of the shipping point reports released by MarketNews on that day. The report is released by the close of business each day, allowing more timely accessto the market information.

The National Shipping Point Trends is a weekly report that details background information at variousshipping points on such things as shipments, prices, trading during the past week, crop conditions,harvesting progress, and the outlook for the upcoming two weeks.

The National Potato and Onion Report is released daily and includes F.O.B. price and supplyinformation for all major potato and onion producing regions throughout the United States and forimports. Also included in the reports are National Shipping Trends and Crop Weather Highlights.The National Watermelon Report contains daily F.O.B. price information and daily shipments in 40,000pound units for watermelons grown domestically and imported from Mexico. This report also includesinformation on cantaloupe and honeydew melons. Included in the domestic growing areas are Arizona,Arkansas, California, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Missouri, North Carolina,Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, and Virginia. Wholesale market reports are also included.

Correlation Between Prices (Possible Substitutes for Information)

year Beans Corn Alfalfa Sorghum Soybeans Wheat Barley Potatoes fdrSteer WTIOIL CPIALL USPOP DPI pricerec pricpaid mdIncome

year 1

Beans 0.594688 1

Corn 0.577793 0.824376 1

Alfalfa 0.873641 0.820632 0.826278 1

Sorghum 0.598168 0.793437 0.989952 0.822786 1

Soybeans 0.616698 0.853417 0.945151 0.84869 0.92802 1

Wheat 0.653419 0.887446 0.938008 0.872369 0.920715 0.928934 1

Barley 0.707525 0.868245 0.906329 0.910991 0.885395 0.939525 0.951708 1

Potatoes 0.854965 0.810144 0.749118 0.888024 0.75139 0.760206 0.811592 0.830641 1

fdrSteer 0.898044 0.724396 0.688604 0.908043 0.706006 0.727614 0.737572 0.773456 0.860242 1

WTIOIL 0.775563 0.760205 0.827897 0.901051 0.824376 0.84766 0.869768 0.900151 0.838234 0.848817 1

CPIALL 0.998485 0.592736 0.579026 0.87672 0.597975 0.613709 0.654695 0.705646 0.859286 0.900515 0.779847 1

USPOP 0.997887 0.592213 0.584664 0.871915 0.605558 0.620298 0.659128 0.715874 0.849326 0.889743 0.785849 0.994862 1

DPI 0.99269 0.617707 0.615287 0.888228 0.634257 0.649149 0.688065 0.746421 0.859679 0.903347 0.821367 0.990257 0.996438 1

pricerec 0.802845 0.860552 0.877435 0.96565 0.865976 0.913747 0.912791 0.945468 0.873699 0.868239 0.906651 0.805846 0.799155 0.816312 1

pricpaid 0.964074 0.723546 0.73815 0.951202 0.746184 0.772494 0.792677 0.846249 0.907282 0.933642 0.89534 0.966318 0.963908 0.973414 0.917185 1

mdIncome 0.993771 0.564232 0.543625 0.845248 0.565455 0.57844 0.628827 0.67962 0.839174 0.872206 0.75912 0.99052 0.994412 0.989094 0.762914 0.945098 1

.95 correlation accounts for 90+% of the price variation, .90 correlation accounts for 81%+.

Sources for Industry Outlook Information and Analysis

• Colorado State University Cooperative Extension Service

• Livestock Market Information Center www.lmic.net

• USDA Economic Research Service www.ers.usda.gov

• World Agricultural Outlook Board (USDA projections) www.wasde.oce.usda.gov

• Commodity trade groups.

Example: Wheat Briefing Room http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/wheat.aspx

Overview

The United States is a major wheat-producing country, with output typically exceeded only by China, the European Union, and India.

•Wheat ranks third among U.S. field crops in both planted acreage and gross farm receipts, behind corn and soybeans.

•U.S. wheat harvested area has dropped off nearly 30 million acres, or nearly one-third, from its peak in 1981 because of declining returns compared with other crops and changes

in government programs that allow farmers more planting flexibility.

•About half of the U.S. wheat crop is exported.

•Despite rising global wheat trade, the U.S. share of the world wheat market has eroded in the past two decades.

ERS analysis and data on wheat include the following:

•Current and historical data on production, use, farm-level prices, and trade.

•Monthly market outlook reports on supply, output, and prices for major classes of wheat; the global trade outlook; and market prospects for major trading countries.

•In-depth analysis of events in domestic and global wheat markets that influence supply, demand, trade, and prices.

. Related Data•Wheat Data

•Agricultural Baseline Database

•Agriculture Outlook Statistical Indicators

•Commodity Costs and Returns

•Farm Program Atlas

See all

Related Reports•Oil Crops Outlook: January 2015

•Feed Grains Outlook: January 2015

•Wheat Outlook: January 2015

•U.S. 2013/14 Wheat Year in Review: Smaller Supplies and Higher Exports Lower Ending Stocks

•Oil Crops Outlook: December 2014

See all

Related Amber Waves Articles•The Importance of Federal Crop Insurance Premium Subsidies

•Support for the Organic Sector Expands in the 2014 Farm Act

•2014 Farm Act Shifts Crop Commodity Programs Away From Fixed Payments and Expands Program Choices

•Wheat Prices Driven By Supply and Demand, Not Speculators

•Flour Imports Help Afghanistan Meet Its Growing Food Needs

See all

AGRICULTURAL BASELINE

OverviewThe agricultural baseline database provides longrun, 10-year projections from USDA's annual long-term projections report, which is published in February each year. The database covers projections for major field crops (corn, sorghum, barley, oats,wheat, rice, soybeans, and upland cotton) and livestock (beef, pork, poultry and eggs, and dairy) starting with the February 2000 report.

When using the database, please note the following:

The database covers projections for major field crops (corn, sorghum, barley, oats, wheat, rice, soybeans, and upland cotton), and livestock (beef, pork, poultry and eggs, and dairy).Pre-defined tables also available in spreadsheets. Additional projections for other data, such as macroeconomic and farm policy assumptions, specialty crops, farm income and agricultural trade, are available in spreadsheets. The data in the database have been published in annual USDA long-term projections since 2000. Each year's projections include 2 years of history and 10 years of projections.Early Release of Selected Tables from USDA Agricultural Projections to 2024

See http://www.usda.gov/oce/ and click on Long-term Projections for selected early-release, long-term projection tables from USDA Agricultural Projections to 2024. These tables cover U.S. supply, use, and price projections to 2024 for major crops and livestock products and supporting U.S. and international macroeconomic assumptions. The USDA will release the complete USDA Agricultural Projections to 2024 report, as scheduled, on February 11, 2015.(It was released this AM)

USDA Agricultural Projections to 2023 (an example of what was released this morning for 2015)

by Paul Westcott and Ronald TrostleUSDA Agricultural Projections No. (OCE-141) 97 pp, February 2014

USDA’s 10-year projections for the food and agriculture sector cover major agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the U.S. farm sector, such as farm income.

Keywords: Projections, crops, livestock, biofuel, ethanol, biodiesel, trade, farm income

In this publication...

Frontmatter (Abstract, Contents, Background), 48 kbIntroduction and Projections Overview, 45 kbMacroeconomic Assumptions, 144 kbAgricultural Trade, 335 kbU.S. Crops, 172 kbU.S. Livestock, 140 kbU.S. Farm Income and Agricultural Trade Value, 113 kbList of Tables, 27 kbEntire report, 654 kbAlso available in Microsoft Word, 897 kb

2015 Agricultural Outlook Forumhttp://www.usda.gov/oce/forum/index.htm

• Available to attend or to download papers, February 19 -20, 2015

Related Topics•Program Preview

•Full Program

•Thursday Presentations

• Plenary

• 1:45 p.m.

• 3:45 p.m.

•Friday Presentations

• Commodity Outlooks

• 8:00 a.m.

• 10:00 a.m.

• Commodity Luncheons

• 2:00 p.m.

•Sponsors

•Past Speeches

•Past Programs

2015 Agricultural Outlook Forum Brief Program

Food Demand Elasticities• Agricultural economists often require information and estimates on price and

income elasticities for their research and analysis. Having a review of elasticities for major commodities and countries in a database will lay the foundation for more accurate research on production, consumption, and trade.

• Most of the demand elasticities in this data product are from academic and government research conducted in the United States on consumer demand, as published in working papers, dissertations, and peer-reviewed journals and as presented at professional conferences in the United States. The most fully covered countries are the United States and China, and the greatest number of demand studies are for vegetables, fruits, and grocery products such as coffee and ketchup. The income, expenditure, own-price, and cross-price elasticities can be downloaded in Microsoft Excel or Adobe Acrobat PDF format.

• http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/commodity-and-food-elasticities.aspx

World Agricultural Outlook Board

Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts

Lockup Briefing

February 10, 2015

World Wheat Supply and Use

February 10, 2015

2013/14

estimate

2014/15

forecast

Change from

January 12

Change from

2013/14

Million Tons Percent Percent

Beginning stocks 175.5 187.5 0.9 6.8

Production 716.1 725.0 0.2 1.2

Total Supply 891.6 912.5 0.4 2.3

Feed use 130.5 139.7 0.2 7.0

Total use 704.2 714.6 0.2 1.5

Trade 165.8 160.1 0.6 -3.4

Ending Stocks 187.5 197.8 0.9 5.5

U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand

February 10, 2015

2013/14

estimate

2014/15

forecast

Change from

January 12

Change from

2013/14

Percent Percent

Planted area (million acres) 56.2 56.8 0.0 1.0

Harvested area (million acres) 45.3 46.4 0.0 2.3

Yield (bushels per acre) 47.1 43.7 0.0 -7.2

Million bushels

Beginning stocks 718 590 0.0 -17.8

Production 2,135 2,026 0.0 -5.1

Imports 169 160 -11.1 -5.1

Total supply 3,021 2,776 -0.7 -8.1

Food use 952 960 0.0 0.8

Seed 77 74 0.0 -4.0

Feed and residual 226 150 0.0 -33.5

Domestic use 1,255 1,184 0.0 -5.7

Exports 1,176 900 -2.7 -23.5

Total use 2,431 2,084 -1.2 -14.3

Ending stocks 590 692 0.7 17.2

Percent

Stocks to use ratio 24.3 33.2

Dollars per bushel

Average market price 6.87 5.85/6.15 -1.6 -12.7

2013/14

estimate

2014/15

forecast

Change from

January 12

Change from

2013/14

Percent Percent

Planted area (million acres) 56.2 56.8 0.0 1.0

Harvested area (million acres) 45.3 46.4 0.0 2.3

Yield (bushels per acre) 47.1 43.7 0.0 -7.2

Million bushels

Beginning stocks 718 590 0.0 -17.8

Production 2,135 2,026 0.0 -5.1

Imports 169 160 -11.1 -5.1

Total supply 3,021 2,776 -0.7 -8.1

Food use 952 960 0.0 0.8

Seed 77 74 0.0 -4.0

Feed and residual 226 150 0.0 -33.5

Domestic use 1,255 1,184 0.0 -5.7

Exports 1,176 900 -2.7 -23.5

Total use 2,431 2,084 -1.2 -14.3

Ending stocks 590 692 0.7 17.2

Percent

Stocks to use ratio 24.3 33.2

Dollars per bushel

Average market price 6.87 5.85/6.15 -1.6 -12.7

Questions??