Applying behavioural insights to public policy · Behavioural Insights Team Source: Behavioural...
Transcript of Applying behavioural insights to public policy · Behavioural Insights Team Source: Behavioural...
CabinetOffice Behavioural Insights Team
Behavioural insights & public policy
David Halpern
CabinetOffice Behavioural Insights Team
Behavioural insight is one of several new emphases in UK government thinking
Big Society & decentralisation
Well-being
Transparency Behavioural
insights
Deregulation
Cost efficiency
Payment by results
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Most policy concerns behaviour
CabinetOffice Behavioural Insights Team
Behavioural insights adds another dimension
1. Regulation
2. Incentives
3. Information
Behavioural Insights
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Not entirely new...
CabinetOffice Behavioural Insights Team
Guide for Policymakers
Shows Implications for Policy
Fantastic summary text
A rich and growing literature
“Our government will find intelligent ways to encourage, support and enable people to make better choices for themselves.”
What do we do?
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• Advice
• Trials
• Structural policy changes
Three ways of working
To change behaviour, make it: Easy Personal Social Worthwhile Timely
CabinetOffice Behavioural Insights Team Make it easy to insulate
Source: Behavioural Insights Team, 2012
CabinetOffice Behavioural Insights Team Make it easy to insulate
Source: Behavioural Insights Team, 2012
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Baseline Group discount Loft clearance
Loft insulation relative to baseline
CabinetOffice Behavioural Insights Team
Encourage disadvantaged to go to university
34% 33%
42%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Control Group Information Information + AutoSubmission
Impact of application assistance on university enrollment
Source: Bettinger et al, 2011
To change behaviour, make it: Easy Personal Social Worthwhile Timely
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Improving DVLA relicensing rates among persistent offenders
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Improving DVLA relicensing rates among persistent offenders
11%
22%
33%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Original letter New letter New letter + image
DVLA relicensing rates
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Corporate tax and dissonance
We are sure that your company believes in paying its taxes. We are sure that you believe in paying your taxes. We are sure that you believe in businesses paying their taxes. But our records show that your company now owes Corporation Tax. You can resolve this by contacting us now
Hallsworth, HMRC
To change behaviour, make it: Easy Personal Social Worthwhile Timely
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Social norms to cut tax debt
Source: Behavioural Insights Team & HMRC, 2011
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Social norms to cut tax debt
68% 73% 79% 83%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Control Group National Norm PostcodeNorm
Town Norm
Self Assessment Tax Debt
Source: Behavioural Insights Team & HMRC, 2011
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We are profoundly social beings
21 UNCLASSIFIED • LGID: Wellbeing - why bother?
Meta analysis: comparative odds of decreased mortality
Source: Holt-Lundstad et al, 2010
A question....
Generally speaking, do you think other people can be trusted?
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Harnessing ‘hidden wealth’ is a key insight
Lund Patient Hotel
The rise of complementary currencies
Singapore Yellow Ribbon program
To change behaviour, make it: Easy Personal Social Worthwhile Timely
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Making energy conservation worthwhile
CabinetOffice Behavioural Insights Team
Using lotteries to boost voter registration
32% 34% 35%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Baseline £1000 prize £5000 prize
Voter registration
To change behaviour, make it: Easy Personal Social Worthwhile Timely
CabinetOffice Behavioural Insights Team
When to encourage people to save?
4.6% 6.2%
9.0% 7.8% 5.8% 5.6% 4.5%
6.7% 6.5% 3.4% 2.8%
37.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%Participants Choices of Month in Which to Increase Savings
CabinetOffice Behavioural Insights Team
Encouraging repayment of court fines
CabinetOffice Behavioural Insights Team
Encouraging repayment of court fines
5%
23% 25%
33%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
No text Standard text Standard text +amount
Standard text +name
Repayment rates
Source: Behavioural Insights Team & HMCTS, 2012
Conclusions
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• Growth & jobs • Red Tape Challenge • Consumers • Health • Energy • Fines and incentives • Social mobility • Crime • Giving
We are applying across policy areas
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We even think about happiness
UNCLASSIFIED Source: Deaton (Princeton); in Halpern, 2010
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Life satisfaction: 1981- 2007
Ingelhart et al 2008
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Many behavioural and social factors affect life satisfaction
BHPS, CO analysis 2011
Rutland
Hartlepool
Blackburn
Wokingham
“David Cameron’s Vanity Project”
Has Steve Hilton's blue-sky thinking finally come good? It was dismissed as a gimmick, but the 'Nudge unit' beloved of the PM's ideas man is bearing fruit Oliver Wright, Wednesday 8th February, 2012
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• Low cost and powerful
• Test, Learn, Adapt
• Harness ‘hidden wealth’
• ...and we welcome collaboration
Behavioural approaches...
http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/behavioural-insights-team
Appendix
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The structure of BIT
BIT David Halpern (Director) Owain Service (DD) + 6
Advisory Panel Gus O’Donnell Richard Thaler (Chicago) Peter Tufano (Oxford) Theresa Marteau (Cambridge) Peter John (UCL) Maurice Birlotti (UCL) Nick Chater (Warwick) Dan Goldstein (LBS)
Steering Board Sir Jeremy Heywood (Chair)
We continually negotiate with each other ‘what goes’
UNCLASSIFIED 44
National values have become more distinctive – social influence writ large
-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
Teach kids tolerance
Religosity
Importance of God
Divorce OK
National pride
Abortion OK
Sign petition
Marriage outdated
Social trust
Homosexuality OK
Dislike N of different …
% change in attitute
% change in spread (s.d.)
UNCLASSIFIED Halpern, 2010; WVS; 18 OECD nations
One of the UK ‘traits’ is high crime – and fear
• Perceived likelihood of burglary by burglary victimisation, by country, 2005
46 BURGL05
3.53.02.52.01.51.0.5
FEA
R_B
0550
40
30
20
10
UK
Sw eden
Spain
Portugal
Poland
Netherlands
Lux
Italy
Ireland
Hungary
Greece
Germany
France
Finland
Estonia
Denmark
Belgium
Austria
UNCLASSIFIED Halpern, 2010; ICVS
Social trust (national trends)
0
20
40
60
80
0 20 40 60 80
1981-3
1997
-200
1
Sweden
Mexico
Argentina S.Africa
France
USA
UK
Spain
Japan
IrelandW.Ger
Belgium
Italy
DenmarkNorway
N.IreAustralia
Iceland
S.Kor
Netherlands
Finland
Decreasing
Increasing
Lowtrust
Hightrust
UNCLASSIFIED Source: WVS; Halpern, 2005
Fear more rooted in social trust
48 SOC_TR04
70605040302010
FEA
R_B
0550
40
30
20
10
UK
Sw eden
Spain
Portugal
Poland
Netherlands
Lux
Italy
Ireland
Hungary
Greece
Germany
France
Finland
Estonia
Denmark
Belgium
Austria
Correlation = .7. Note the Danes have a burglary rate
second only to ours
UNCLASSIFIED Halpern, 2010; ICVS
Did you know? Taking the stairs instead of the elevator is a good way to get some exercise. Why not try it?
Did you know? More than 90 percent of the time, people in this building use the stairs instead of the elevator. Why not you?
1.8 percentage point reduction (not significant)
7 percentage point reduction (significant)
Social norms to speed tax repayments
• BIT, 2011
68% 73%
79% 83%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%Self Assessment Tax Debt
Well-being
Social trust (national trends)
0
20
40
60
80
0 20 40 60 80
1981-3
1997
-200
1
Sweden
Mexico
Argentina S.Africa
France
USA
UK
Spain
Japan
IrelandW.Ger
Belgium
Italy
DenmarkNorway
N.IreAustralia
Iceland
S.Kor
Netherlands
Finland
Decreasing
Increasing
Lowtrust
Hightrust
UNCLASSIFIED Source: WVS; Halpern, 2005
CabinetOffice Behavioural Insights Team
There’s more to life than ‘real economy’
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1961 1983 2001
Sleep
Med, education
Out leisure, shops
Home leisure
Shelter, nutrition
Services (upper)
Services (other)
Manual
Sleep Medical, education
Sport, shopping, travel Home leisure Shelter, nutrition Professional services Other services Manual
We spend on 23% of our waking time in paid work
down 1hr 15min from 1960’s – with clear
evidence of convergence across class
The ‘economy of regard’ is at least big as the ’real
economy’
Source: Data from Geshunny, UK time budget studies; Halpern, 2010
Social networks matter for well-being, as does autonomy and control
UNCLASSIFIED Source: BHPS; Cabinet Office analysis, 2011
Social connection helps to explain important national differences
UNCLASSIFIED Source: Deaton (Princeton); in Halpern, 2010
The Danish formula
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10
20
30
40
50
60
70
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90
Perc
ent s
ayin
g m
ost i
mpo
rtan
t
Denmark
UK
Bulgaria
Source: Eurobaromenter data, Halpern, 2010
Measuring well-being
• ONS is asking 200,000 Britons:
• - How satisfied are you with your life nowadays? • - How happy did you feel yesterday? • - How anxious did you feel yesterday? • - To what extent do you feel the things you do in
your life • are worthwhile?
57 UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Well-being... ‘enable people to make better choices for themselves’...
Mean Life Satisfaction by Industry Sector – ONS 2011/12 (with 95% confidence intervals)
UNCLASSIFIED
ONS data will be representative by LA area...and released on July 24th
• ONS data shows variation in wellbeing by area – between highest 15 and lowest 15 areas
• Regression models show significant variations between regions controlling for other factors
6
6.5
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7.5
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8.5
Rutla
nd
Rich
mon
d up
on T
ham
es
Nort
h Yo
rksh
ire
Cum
bria
Win
dsor
and
Mai
denh
ead
Corn
wal
l
East
Rid
ing
of Y
orks
hire
Wes
t Sus
sex
Bath
and
Nor
th E
ast S
omer
set
Pool
e
Ches
hire
Eas
t
New
cast
le u
pon
Tyne
York
Shro
pshi
re
Nort
h So
mer
set
Roch
dale
Thur
rock
Cam
den
King
ston
upo
n T
ham
es
Liver
pool
Luto
n
Brad
ford
Croy
don
Oldh
am
Bark
ing
and
Dage
nham
Hack
ney
Wol
verh
ampt
on
Bren
t
Birm
ingh
am
Tow
er H
amle
ts
Mean Life Satisfaction by Area – ONS 2011/12 (with 95% confidence intervals)
Source: ONS data for April –Sept 2011- Cabinet Office analysis, 2012
CONTROL
INTERVENTION
To change behaviour, make it: Easy Personal Social Worthwhile Timely
Increasing response rates of doctors to notification of tax owed
• BIT, 2011
4%
21%
35% 35%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Generic Letter Letter focused on Simplified Letter Simplified Letter +
Response Rates of Doctors to HMRC Letters
Reducing fraudulent council tax discount claims
• BIT, 2012
22%
28%
25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Original letter New letter New letter + signature up
Percent of those discontinuing discount
National insurance
Tax exemptions
Independent Financial Advice
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.5
Baseline Loft Clearance Retail Loft Clearance atcost
Loft insulation relative to baseline
Criminal sanctions
Financial penalties
HMRC campaigns
Building regulations
Insulation saves you money
Energy Performance Certificates
Food regulations
Fruit and veg VAT exemptions
Nutritional information
CabinetOffice Behavioural Insights Team
People would rather save in the future
3.5%
6.5%
9.4%
11.6%
13.6%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Save More Tomorrow Savings Rates
Easy Make it easy! Remove friction, extra steps Defaults Simplify messages
Personal It’s you! Special and personalised Active commitments Ego
Social Other people are doing it...(Social norms) Reciprocity Networks
Worthwhile It’s fun, or of value... Hyperbolic discounting, prospect theory, lotteries Anchoring & framing Affect Expert messengers
Timely When is this relevant? Key moments and channels Priming
CabinetOffice Behavioural Insights Team
Encouraging repayment of court fines
Source: Behavioural Insights Team & HMCTS, 2012