Applying Bayesian Belief Networks to the Examination of Student Outcomes

Xiaohong Li, Graduate Research Asst.Rita Caso, Director

Sam Houston State UniversityOffice of Institutional Research & Assessment

Purpose of the Study

Why Study Freshman Outcomes?

Why Bayesian Networks

Method

Example Inferences

Conclusions

TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08 2

Apply Bayesian Belief Network(BBN) techniques to examine

student outcomes for the purpose of identifying families of

factors associated with students’ college success at Sam

Houston State University (SHSU)

Identify what factors impact retention and graduation for

First Time Freshmen (FTF) Retention and Graduation rates: key performance indicators

Providing management information, analyzing and

interpreting these data for using in planning and policy

decisions


To determine if we are providing the best environment & experiences to promote success for our diverse freshman population

To make tailored improvements in the learning environment and the learning experiences we offer in order to maximize successful outcomes for all students across preparation backgrounds, needs, learning styles and life-styles

To satisfy external accountability requirements


University Stakeholders who need detailed insights into the conditions and combinations of factors that influence new student success:

Enrollment Management Enrichment and Support Programs Student Services Academic Department


Graphical Model with an Associated set of

Probability Tables

Learn causal relationships easily

Better understand the problem domain and

predict the consequences

Flexible and robust recommendation strategies


Definitions of Basic Terms: Independent

Event A does not affect the probability of B occurring: P( A, B) = P(A) * P(B)

Conditional probability The probability of event C occurring, given

that event A has already occurred: P(C|A) Conditional Independence

E is independent of A and B given D E and F are conditionally independent of each

other, given D Causal Theory

A or B can cause D to occur Node: variable

Leaf Node: no outcome depends on them (E, F) Root Node: do not depend on any outcome (A,B)

A

D

E

B

TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08

F

7

“A graphical model that encodes probabilistic relationships

among variables of interest”

Named “Bayes” after Reverend Thomas Bayes, a British

theologian and mathematician who wrote down a basic law of

probability

Bayes Rule


Smoking Cancer

8

Bayesian Networks Contain:

A Network Structure:

Directed, acyclic (non-circular) graph

Encodes a set of conditional independence and

dependence information about variables

Probability

Probability distributions associated with each variable

Represented in the data and computed from the data


Example of Bayesian Network Example Data below is Invented

Retention

Full/Part FAID


Full/PartFAID Part FullYes 0.4 0.6No 0.11 0.99

FAID

Yes No

0.2 0.8

RetentionFull/Part FAID Yes No

Full Yes 0.95 0.05Full No 0.8 0.2Part Yes 0.9 0.1Part No 0.99 0.01

10

Data Processing

Data Source: Institutional Research & Assessment Office data files from which Fall

FTF cohorts for 2000 through 2006 were extracted

Working Data File Merge extracted FTF Cohort data into aggregated data file

Records=13542, variables =216

Dependent variables - retention rate & graduation rate computed

from enrollment and graduation variables in working data file

Discretization – transform continuous variables into categorical

variables


Developing Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) Model by using

a computer application program called NeticaTM3.25

Selection of Variables

Input variables selected from commonly used in SHSU

IRA Office studies of freshman outcomes

Variable selection reinforced by variables used in ‘

Data Mining with Bayesian Belief networks to Examine

Retention and Graduation at a Public University’ by P.

Edamatsu, D. Jankovic and Pokrajac, presented at AIR

2007 Forum


Name Label Type Value

1 Year Retention 1 Year Retention Discrete 2

Admitted_HscholGrad Year Admitted-Graduation Year Discretized 4

College College of Students’ Enrollment Discrete 7

Ethnicity Ethnicity Discrete 6

Gender Gender Discrete 2

I_O In-state(I)/Out of State (O) Discrete 2

F_T Full or Part Time Discrete 2

BKLC Bearkat Learning-Community Cohort

Discrete 2

PBSP Probation or Suspension Discrete 6

ONOFF Whether or not student lives on campus

Discrete 2

FAID Financial Aid Discrete 2

HSrank Rank in High School Discretized 5

SAT_Total SAT Total Score Discretized 6

GPA End of Semester GPA Discretized 8

Graduated_6yrs 6 year Graduation Discrete 2


Assumptions in the model Structure

Graduation and Retention (Dependent Variables)

are “leaf nodes” Gender, Ethnicity, Full/Part, Probation &

Suspension (PBSP) are “root nodes” and are independent of each other.


• Building the Model Structure

In order to specify the relationships between the selected variables

from PRIOR information, I took inspiration from:

Structure used by Edamatsu, D. Jankovic and Pokrajac in their

study

Knowledge about variables related to dependent outcome

variables from other SHSU IRA Office studies

Knowledge about relationships between pairs of variables from

correlation matrices that included all selected variables


Ethnicity

AMAPBLHIINWH

0.591.1318.111.40.8068.0

5.15 ± 1.3

College

Gen study undecidedArt SciencesBusiness AdminAcademic ServicesCriminal JusticeHumanities Social SciencesEducation

.08444.216.4.08413.415.610.3

5.26 ± 2.3

F-T

P TF TUnknow

3.0696.9.007

1.03 ± 0.17

Admitted_HscholGrad

XX1X5X5more

94.72.941.510.84

0.0847 ± 0.4

SAT_Total

X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400

0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7

2.96 ± 1.4

FAID

YN

67.932.1

0.679 ± 0.47

PBSP

Remediation deficRemediation GradePoint DeficGradePoint DeficProbationSuspendedGood standing

1.332.8011.510.50.9173.0

0.879 ± 1.5

BKLC

YN

3.0097.0

0.03 ± 0.17

Gender

FM

59.140.9

1.41 ± 0.49

HSrank

UnknowTop10Top11 25Q2ndQ3rdBottomQ

14.010.424.935.013.81.87

2.3 ± 1.3

ONOFF

FO

18.381.7

0.183 ± 0.39

1 year retention

YN

67.732.3

0.677 ± 0.47

Graduated_6yrs

YN

45.055.0

0.45 ± 0.5

GPA

X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA

7.1219.816.622.08.8314.27.364.10

3.65 ± 1.9

I_O

IO

97.92.07

0.979 ± 0.14


Posteriori Analysis Students’ gender determines students’ college choice

and high school rank Ethnicity influences students’ college choice. 1 year retention rate and 6 year graduation rate directly

depend on GPA and students’ probation or suspension status

Students’ in-state or out–of-state status and ethnicity related to how many years after high school graduation students applied to the university

Students living on campus perform a little bit better than those living off campus


Ethnicity

AMAPBLHIINWH

0.591.1318.111.40.8068.0

5.15 ± 1.3

College


0.1046.321.60.1016.210.55.16

4.92 ± 2.1

F-T

P TF TUnknow

3.0696.9.007

1.03 ± 0.17

Admitted_HscholGrad

XX1X5X5more

94.72.941.510.84

0.0847 ± 0.4

SAT_Total

X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400

0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7

2.96 ± 1.4

FAID

YN

67.932.1

0.679 ± 0.47

PBSP


1.332.8011.510.50.9173.0

0.879 ± 1.5

BKLC

YN

3.0097.0

0.03 ± 0.17

Gender

FM

0 100

2

HSrank


15.56.5519.037.318.63.07

2.46 ± 1.4

ONOFF

FO

18.381.7

0.183 ± 0.39

1 year retention

YN

67.732.3

0.677 ± 0.47

Graduated_6yrs

YN

45.055.0

0.45 ± 0.5

GPA

X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA

7.1219.816.622.08.8314.27.364.10

3.65 ± 1.9

I_O

IO

97.92.14

0.979 ± 0.14


Ethnicity

AMAPBLHIINWH

0.591.1318.111.40.8068.0

5.15 ± 1.3

College


.07342.712.7.07311.519.113.8

5.5 ± 2.4

F-T

P TF TUnknow

3.0696.9.007

1.03 ± 0.17

Admitted_HscholGrad

XX1X5X5more

94.72.941.510.84

0.0847 ± 0.4

SAT_Total

X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400

0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7

2.96 ± 1.4

FAID

YN

67.932.1

0.679 ± 0.47

PBSP


1.332.8011.510.50.9173.0

0.879 ± 1.5

BKLC

YN

3.0097.0

0.03 ± 0.17

Gender

FM

100 0

1

HSrank


12.913.129.033.410.51.05

2.19 ± 1.2

ONOFF

FO

18.381.7

0.183 ± 0.39

1 year retention

YN

67.732.3

0.677 ± 0.47

Graduated_6yrs

YN

45.055.0

0.45 ± 0.5

GPA

X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA

7.1219.816.622.08.8314.27.364.10

3.65 ± 1.9

I_O

IO

98.02.03

0.98 ± 0.14


There is no significant difference in graduation rate and retention rate between males and females. More females’ high school ranks are above the 1st Q (from the top) than males Females

Tend to study majors in college of Art & Sciences and Humanities & Social Sciences

Males Tend to study majors in college of Art & Sciences

and Business Administration.


Ethnicity

AMAPBLHIINWH

0 0 0 0 0

100

6

College


.02246.615.4.02212.114.811.1

5.2 ± 2.3

F-T

P TF TUnknow

3.0696.9.007

1.03 ± 0.17

Admitted_HscholGrad

XX1X5X5more

94.42.991.640.95

0.0914 ± 0.42

SAT_Total

X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400

0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7

2.96 ± 1.4

FAID

YN

67.932.1

0.679 ± 0.47

PBSP


1.332.8011.510.50.9173.0

0.879 ± 1.5

BKLC

YN

3.0097.0

0.03 ± 0.17

Gender

FM

59.140.9

1.41 ± 0.49

HSrank


14.010.424.935.013.81.87

2.3 ± 1.3

ONOFF

FO

22.277.8

0.222 ± 0.42

1 year retention

YN

67.632.4

0.676 ± 0.47

Graduated_6yrs

YN

45.055.0

0.45 ± 0.5

GPA

X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA

7.1319.816.522.08.8214.17.454.18

3.65 ± 1.9

I_O

IO

98.61.42

0.986 ± 0.12


Ethnicity

AMAPBLHIINWH

0 0 0

100 0 0

4

College


0.1338.015.50.1321.016.58.75

5.5 ± 2.2

F-T

P TF TUnknow

3.0696.9.007

1.03 ± 0.17

Admitted_HscholGrad

XX1X5X5more

96.12.521.100.32

0.0568 ± 0.31

SAT_Total

X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400

0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7

2.96 ± 1.4

FAID

YN

67.932.1

0.679 ± 0.47

PBSP


1.332.8011.510.50.9173.0

0.879 ± 1.5

BKLC

YN

3.0097.0

0.03 ± 0.17

Gender

FM

59.140.9

1.41 ± 0.49

HSrank


14.010.424.935.013.81.87

2.3 ± 1.3

ONOFF

FO

13.886.2

0.138 ± 0.35

1 year retention

YN

67.832.2

0.678 ± 0.47

Graduated_6yrs

YN

45.154.9

0.451 ± 0.5

GPA

X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA

7.1019.916.622.18.8214.37.233.95

3.65 ± 1.9

I_O

IO

98.91.11

0.989 ± 0.1


Ethnicity

AMAPBLHIINWH

0 0

100 0 0 0

3

College


.08539.520.4.08513.917.88.21

5.35 ± 2.2

F-T

P TF TUnknow

3.0696.9.007

1.03 ± 0.17

Admitted_HscholGrad

XX1X5X5more

96.62.080.780.53

0.0522 ± 0.31

SAT_Total

X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400

0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7

2.96 ± 1.4

FAID

YN

67.932.1

0.679 ± 0.47

PBSP


1.332.8011.510.50.9173.0

0.879 ± 1.5

BKLC

YN

3.0097.0

0.03 ± 0.17

Gender

FM

59.140.9

1.41 ± 0.49

HSrank


14.010.424.935.013.81.87

2.3 ± 1.3

ONOFF

FO

5.9294.1

0.0592 ± 0.24

1 year retention

YN

68.131.9

0.681 ± 0.47

Graduated_6yrs

YN

45.154.9

0.451 ± 0.5

GPA

X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA

7.0820.016.722.28.8214.47.063.80

3.66 ± 1.8

I_O

IO

98.51.50

0.985 ± 0.12


Ethnicity

AMAPBLHIINWH

100 0 0 0 0 0

1

College


2.1539.814.02.1514.020.47.53

5.31 ± 2.4

F-T

P TF TUnknow

3.0696.9.007

1.03 ± 0.17

Admitted_HscholGrad

XX1X5X5more

86.73.614.824.82

0.277 ± 0.77

SAT_Total

X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400

0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7

2.96 ± 1.4

FAID

YN

67.932.1

0.679 ± 0.47

PBSP


1.332.8011.510.50.9173.0

0.879 ± 1.5

BKLC

YN

3.0097.0

0.03 ± 0.17

Gender

FM

59.140.9

1.41 ± 0.49

HSrank


14.010.424.935.013.81.87

2.3 ± 1.3

ONOFF

FO

24.775.3

0.247 ± 0.43

1 year retention

YN

67.332.7

0.673 ± 0.47

Graduated_6yrs

YN

45.055.0

0.45 ± 0.5

GPA

X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA

7.2119.216.322.08.9813.97.794.64

3.65 ± 1.9

I_O

IO

91.48.62

0.914 ± 0.28



No significant difference in graduation rate and

retention rate among ethnicities

Native Americans are less likely (86.7%) to attend

university within 1 year after high school compare to

other ethnicities (around 95%), and 91% are in-state

students, while 99% of other ethnicities are in-state.

46.6% of White Americans enrolled in college of Arts

and Sciences, compare to 39% of other ethnicities.

94% of African Americans live on campus, compare to

75% - 86% of other ethnicities.•

25

Ethnicity

AMAPBLHIINWH

0.571.1318.211.50.7467.9

5.14 ± 1.3

College


.08344.216.4.08313.415.610.3

5.26 ± 2.3

F-T

P TF TUnknow

3.0696.9.007

1.03 ± 0.17

Admitted_HscholGrad

XX1X5X5more

96.22.281.100.45

0.0584 ± 0.32

SAT_Total

X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400

0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7

2.96 ± 1.4

FAID

YN

67.932.1

0.679 ± 0.47

PBSP


1.036.0436.633.91.9520.5

2.68 ± 1.5

BKLC

YN

2.3897.6

0.0238 ± 0.15

Gender

FM

59.140.9

1.41 ± 0.49

HSrank


14.010.424.935.013.81.87

2.3 ± 1.3

ONOFF

FO

18.181.9

0.181 ± 0.38

1 year retention

YN

55.045.0

0.55 ± 0.5

Graduated_6yrs

YN

27.073.0

0.27 ± 0.44

GPA

X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA

0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0

2

I_O

IO

98.02.03

0.98 ± 0.14


Ethnicity

AMAPBLHIINWH

0.581.1318.211.50.7867.9

5.14 ± 1.3

College


.08444.216.4.08413.415.610.3

5.26 ± 2.3

F-T

P TF TUnknow

3.0696.9.007

1.03 ± 0.17

Admitted_HscholGrad

XX1X5X5more

95.22.661.700.47

0.0749 ± 0.36

SAT_Total

X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400

0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7

2.96 ± 1.4

FAID

YN

67.932.1

0.679 ± 0.47

PBSP


2.760.200.430.890.4395.3

0.102 ± 0.56

BKLC

YN

2.9197.1

0.0291 ± 0.17

Gender

FM

59.140.9

1.41 ± 0.49

HSrank


14.010.424.935.013.81.87

2.3 ± 1.3

ONOFF

FO

17.582.5

0.175 ± 0.38

1 year retention

YN

74.525.5

0.745 ± 0.44

Graduated_6yrs

YN

43.057.0

0.43 ± 0.5

GPA

X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA

0 0

100 0 0 0 0 0

3

I_O

IO

97.92.06

0.979 ± 0.14


Ethnicity

AMAPBLHIINWH

0.631.1317.311.20.8868.8

5.17 ± 1.3

College


.08544.216.3.08513.415.510.3

5.26 ± 2.3

F-T

P TF TUnknow

3.0696.9.007

1.03 ± 0.17

Admitted_HscholGrad

XX1X5X5more

93.03.552.101.35

0.118 ± 0.48

SAT_Total

X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400

0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7

2.96 ± 1.4

FAID

YN

67.932.1

0.679 ± 0.47

PBSP


0.470.460.850.880.2997.0

0.0892 ± 0.55

BKLC

YN

3.3896.6

0.0338 ± 0.18

Gender

FM

59.140.9

1.41 ± 0.49

HSrank


14.010.424.935.013.81.87

2.3 ± 1.3

ONOFF

FO

22.477.6

0.224 ± 0.42

1 year retention

YN

84.815.2

0.848 ± 0.36

Graduated_6yrs

YN

70.429.6

0.704 ± 0.46

GPA

X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA

0 0 0 0 0 0

100 0

7

I_O

IO

97.92.14

0.979 ± 0.14


Bearkat Learning Community students have a higher probability of having a higher GPA

Students with low GPA (below 2) Have only 27% graduation rate and 55% 1 year retention

rate

Students with higher GPA (2 to 2.5) Have 43% graduation rate and 75% retention rate

Students with highest GPA (above 3.75) Have 70% graduation rate and 85% retention rate


Ethnicity

AMAPBLHIINWH

0.591.1318.111.40.8068.0

5.15 ± 1.3

College


.08444.216.4.08413.415.610.3

5.26 ± 2.3

F-T

P TF TUnknow

3.0696.9.007

1.03 ± 0.17

Admitted_HscholGrad

XX1X5X5more

94.72.941.510.84

0.0847 ± 0.4

SAT_Total

X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400

0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7

2.96 ± 1.4

FAID

YN

67.932.1

0.679 ± 0.47

PBSP


0 0 0

100 0 0

4

BKLC

YN

3.0097.0

0.03 ± 0.17

Gender

FM

59.140.9

1.41 ± 0.49

HSrank


14.010.424.935.013.81.87

2.3 ± 1.3

ONOFF

FO

18.381.7

0.183 ± 0.39

1 year retention

YN

45.154.9

0.451 ± 0.5

Graduated_6yrs

YN

22.177.9

0.221 ± 0.41

GPA

X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA

25.564.01.400.620.620.620.626.61

1.71 ± 0.89

I_O

IO

97.92.07

0.979 ± 0.14


Ethnicity

AMAPBLHIINWH

0.591.1318.111.40.8068.0

5.15 ± 1.3

College


.08444.216.4.08413.415.610.3

5.26 ± 2.3

F-T

P TF TUnknow

3.0696.9.007

1.03 ± 0.17

Admitted_HscholGrad

XX1X5X5more

94.72.941.510.84

0.0847 ± 0.4

SAT_Total

X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400

0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7

2.96 ± 1.4

FAID

YN

67.932.1

0.679 ± 0.47

PBSP


0 0 0 0 0

100

0

BKLC

YN

3.0097.0

0.03 ± 0.17

Gender

FM

59.140.9

1.41 ± 0.49

HSrank


14.010.424.935.013.81.87

2.3 ± 1.3

ONOFF

FO

18.381.7

0.183 ± 0.39

1 year retention

YN

76.024.0

0.76 ± 0.43

Graduated_6yrs

YN

53.346.7

0.533 ± 0.5

GPA

X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA

0.255.5621.629.411.719.19.792.61

4.35 ± 1.6

I_O

IO

97.92.07

0.979 ± 0.14


Ethnicity

AMAPBLHIINWH

0.591.1318.111.40.8068.0

5.15 ± 1.3

College


.08444.216.4.08413.415.610.3

5.26 ± 2.3

F-T

P TF TUnknow

3.0696.9.007

1.03 ± 0.17

Admitted_HscholGrad

XX1X5X5more

94.72.941.510.84

0.0847 ± 0.4

SAT_Total

X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400

0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7

2.96 ± 1.4

FAID

YN

67.932.1

0.679 ± 0.47

PBSP


0 0 0

100 0 0

4

BKLC

YN

3.0097.0

0.03 ± 0.17

Gender

FM

59.140.9

1.41 ± 0.49

HSrank


14.010.424.935.013.81.87

2.3 ± 1.3

ONOFF

FO

18.381.7

0.183 ± 0.39

1 year retention

YN

45.154.9

0.451 ± 0.5

Graduated_6yrs

YN

22.177.9

0.221 ± 0.41

GPA

X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA

25.564.01.400.620.620.620.626.61

1.71 ± 0.89

I_O

IO

97.92.07

0.979 ± 0.14


Ethnicity

AMAPBLHIINWH

0.551.0818.211.50.2168.5

5.15 ± 1.3

College


.07344.216.3.07313.515.610.3

5.26 ± 2.3

F-T

P TF TUnknow

3.0696.9.007

1.03 ± 0.17

Admitted_HscholGrad

XX1X5X5more

94.92.841.450.83

0.0822 ± 0.39

SAT_Total

X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400

0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7

2.96 ± 1.4

FAID

YN

67.932.1

0.679 ± 0.47

PBSP


1.332.8011.510.50.9173.0

0.879 ± 1.5

BKLC

YN

3.0097.0

0.03 ± 0.17

Gender

FM

59.240.8

1.41 ± 0.49

HSrank


13.810.425.035.113.81.83

2.3 ± 1.3

ONOFF

FO

18.281.8

0.182 ± 0.39

1 year retention

YN

67.732.3

0.677 ± 0.47

Graduated_6yrs

YN

45.055.0

0.45 ± 0.5

GPA

X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA

7.1219.816.622.08.8214.27.364.09

3.65 ± 1.9

I_O

IO

100 0

1


Ethnicity

AMAPBLHIINWH

2.453.3213.16.1228.446.6

4.95 ± 1.3

College


0.5942.719.00.5911.016.110.1

5.23 ± 2.3

F-T

P TF TUnknow

3.0696.9.007

1.03 ± 0.17

Admitted_HscholGrad

XX1X5X5more

86.77.714.171.44

0.204 ± 0.58

SAT_Total

X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400

0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7

2.96 ± 1.4

FAID

YN

67.932.1

0.679 ± 0.47

PBSP


1.332.8011.510.50.9173.0

0.879 ± 1.5

BKLC

YN

3.0097.0

0.03 ± 0.17

Gender

FM

57.942.1

1.42 ± 0.49

HSrank


20.010.422.127.216.14.13

2.21 ± 1.5

ONOFF

FO

20.779.3

0.207 ± 0.41

1 year retention

YN

67.532.5

0.675 ± 0.47

Graduated_6yrs

YN

45.055.0

0.45 ± 0.5

GPA

X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA

7.1519.416.521.98.9314.17.584.48

3.65 ± 1.9

I_O

IO

0 100

0


Ethnicity

AMAPBLHIINWH

0.541.1520.812.00.7264.8

5.05 ± 1.3

College


.08443.916.5.08413.515.710.2

5.27 ± 2.3

F-T

P TF TUnknow

3.0696.9.007

1.03 ± 0.17

Admitted_HscholGrad

XX1X5X5more

94.82.901.470.82

0.083 ± 0.39

SAT_Total

X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400

0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7

2.96 ± 1.4

FAID

YN

67.932.1

0.679 ± 0.47

PBSP


1.332.8011.510.50.9173.0

0.879 ± 1.5

BKLC

YN

3.0097.0

0.03 ± 0.17

Gender

FM

59.140.9

1.41 ± 0.49

HSrank


14.010.424.935.013.81.87

2.3 ± 1.3

ONOFF

FO

0 100

0

1 year retention

YN

68.231.8

0.682 ± 0.47

Graduated_6yrs

YN

45.154.9

0.451 ± 0.5

GPA

X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA

7.0919.916.722.38.8814.46.993.77

3.66 ± 1.8

I_O

IO

98.02.01

0.98 ± 0.14


Ethnicity

AMAPBLHIINWH

0.801.045.858.631.1682.5

5.56 ± 1

College


.08345.315.8.08312.915.210.7

5.23 ± 2.3

F-T

P TF TUnknow

3.0696.9.007

1.03 ± 0.17

Admitted_HscholGrad

XX1X5X5more

94.33.121.670.92

0.0923 ± 0.42

SAT_Total

X400 599X600 799X800 999X1000 1199X1200 1600NA or below400

0.326.6737.334.66.3014.7

2.96 ± 1.4

FAID

YN

67.932.1

0.679 ± 0.47

PBSP


1.332.8011.510.50.9173.0

0.879 ± 1.5

BKLC

YN

3.0097.0

0.03 ± 0.17

Gender

FM

59.140.9

1.41 ± 0.49

HSrank


14.010.424.935.013.81.87

2.3 ± 1.3

ONOFF

FO

100 0

1

1 year retention

YN

65.434.6

0.654 ± 0.48

Graduated_6yrs

YN

44.555.5

0.445 ± 0.5

GPA

X00100X00200X00250X50300X00325X25375X75400NA

7.2719.615.920.98.5813.29.005.57

3.63 ± 1.9

I_O

IO

97.72.35

0.977 ± 0.15



Students on probation or suspended in the first year Have only 22% graduation rate and 45% retention rate

Good standing students Have 53% graduation rate and 76% retention rate.

Out-of-state students are less likely (87%) to attend university within 1 year after high school, compared to in-state students (95%).

There are no GPA distribution differences between in-state students and out-of-state students

Students living on campus have a slightly higher GPA, retention rate and graduation rate.

37

Bayesian Belief Networks are good tools for analyzing

institutional research data

BBN is a powerful methodology for graphically demonstrating

probability theory and can provide good references for

university administration

Users could have difficulty using BBN if they do not have

sufficient data or theory base to provide prior probabilities. This

is particularly problematic when exploring a previously

unknown network

The validity and reliability of prior beliefs used in Bayesian

inference processing are critical. If this prior knowledge is not

reliable, then the Bayesian network is not useful


1. P. Edamatsu, D. Jankovic and Pokrajac, Data Mining with

Bayesian Belief networks to Examine Retention and Graduation

at a Public University, presented at AIR 2007 Forum

2. David Heckerman, A Tutorial on Learning with Bayesian

Networks, 1997

3. Bruce G. Marcot, What Are “Bayesian Belief Network Models?”,

2005

4. Castillo, E., J.M.Gutierrez and A.S.Hadi Expert Systems and

Probabilistic Network Models. Springer Verlag, 1997

5. Jie Cheng, Russell Greiner, Learning Bayesian Belief Network

Classifiers: Algorithms and System 1995

Bibliography

39

Applying Bayesian Belief Networks to the Examination of Student Outcomes

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