Applying a New Generation of Prognostics Across the Industrial Internet
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Applying a New Generation of Prognostics Across the Industrial Internet
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How is the Industrial Internet impacting corporate productivity today and in the future? These slides will present on how the Industrial Internet creates a $7T opportunity by connecting people, advanced analytics and progressive machines. Learn about Industrial Internet, new killer applications like DigialClone Live, and how these processes come together to promote corporate strategy. Executives and strategic planners responsible for designing, testing, or operating rotating equipment more efficiently would be interested in watching the recorded presentation.
Transcript of Applying a New Generation of Prognostics Across the Industrial Internet
Applying a New Generation of Prognostics
Across the Industrial Internet
2
Navair Presentation | Date 11.13.2013
OUR 10 YEAR RESEARCH PEDIGREE INVENTED A NEW WAY TO
MEASURE AND TEST ROTATING EQUIPMENT COMPUTATIONALLY
DEPARTMENT
OF DEFENSE
DEPARTMENT
OF ENERGYNATIONAL SCIENCE
FOUNDATION
October 23, 2014
Applying a New Generation of Prognostics Across the Industrial Internet
Sentient Science is Based on Three
Fundamental Capabilities
• We are the leader in model-based
prognostics
• Model-based, multi-physics based
prognostics computational technologies
and services
• Our applications help extend the
remaining useful life (RUL) of new and
existing mechanical systems
• We reduce friction and improve
performance of bearings, gears,
drivetrains and mechanical systems
• We are a “killer” application for the
Industrial Internet
• The newest prognostics health
management )PHM application for
condition-based maintenance (CBM)
October 23, 2014
Applying a New Generation of Prognostics Across the Industrial Internet
Sentient Science Family
October 23, 2014
Applying a New Generation of Prognostics Across the Industrial Internet
What is the Industrial Internet?
Dr. Peter Closson Evans (GE Global Strategy and Analytics, 2013)
October 23, 2014
Applying a New Generation of Prognostics Across the Industrial Internet
Intelligent Machines – Advanced Analytics –
People at Work
October 23, 2014
Applying a New Generation of Prognostics Across the Industrial Internet
Connected Inside
Dr. Shoumen Datta, MIT
October 23, 2014
Applying a New Generation of Prognostics Across the Industrial Internet
z
Connected Outside
Dr. Shoumen Datta, MIT
October 23, 2014
Applying a New Generation of Prognostics Across the Industrial Internet
Why should you care?
GE estimates
October 23, 2014
Applying a New Generation of Prognostics Across the Industrial Internet
October 23, 2014
Gov’t & OEMs & Operatorsin alignment
on Maintenance Efficiency Strategy
B2B & B2C ecommerce Wave aka Dot Com
Bank Crisis ended rapid new wind turbine build out
and focused market on O&M,
Auto Crisis caused delay in Energy Demand Side of Mobile Assets
not ready until 2017+
2005 2009 Today
45,000 Wind Fleet Installed USA
95% have no solution
Yergin’s 5th Fuel
GE Industrial Internet
2000
Bank
Crisis
Material Genome Initiative
Advanced Manufacturing
Initiative
Industrial Internet
Consortium
DMDII – Digital
Manufacturing Design
Innovation Institute
17000 GE 1.5 off warranty
Off
Warranty
Inspection
End of PTC?
New EPA Carbon
Reduction Regulation
Consumer
Internet Wave
Industrial Internet
Wave
Energy
Efficiency
Wave
Auto
Crisis
2020
Impact on Renewable (Wind) EnergyExample: Wind Energy Plant, Asset & Components
Applying a New Generation of Prognostics Across the Industrial Internet
What is Sentient Science doing to
participate in the Industrial Internet?
Past
DIAGONSTICS
Over the
Industrial Internet
Future
PROGNOSTICS
Over the
Industrial Internet
October 23, 2014
Applying a New Generation of Prognostics Across the Industrial Internet
Tim
e
Co
nd
iti
on
Extend the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) through Prognostics
B – Mechanical Failure
C - Failure can be confidently
predicted - PROGNOSIS
Gap between current
diagnostic state D and future
prognostic state C.
Extended Life
through prognostic
A – Asset enters service
D – Operational Failure
October 23, 2014
Applying a New Generation of Prognostics Across the Industrial Internet
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AS-IS %Yearly Failure AS-IS % Cum Failure
Industry Average – 1.5MW WTG – 500 Units
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$10,000,000.00
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AS-IS MW/Hr Cost AS-IS Yearly Cost
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AS-IS MW/Hr Cost TO-BE MW/Hr Cost
AS-IS Yearly Cost TO-BE Yearly Cost
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AS-IS %Yearly Failure TO-BE %Yearly Failure
AS-IS % Cum Failure TO-BE %Cum Failure
Yearly
Cost
MW/Hr
Cost
5 years, $19M savings, 500% ROI 25% improvement per year
October 23, 2014
Applying a New Generation of Prognostics Across the Industrial Internet
Site Level Reports
October 23, 2014
Applying a New Generation of Prognostics Across the Industrial Internet
“As Is”
Quantify Impact of: Lubrication change, auto-lubrication systems, partial de-rating, etc.
Prognostics allows you to quantify “what-if” scenarios to extend RUL.
“To Be”
Linking Fleet Level Performance to
Component Level Performance
October 23, 2014
Applying a New Generation of Prognostics Across the Industrial Internet
System Level Reports
October 23, 2014
Applying a New Generation of Prognostics Across the Industrial Internet
Asset Level Reports
October 23, 2014
Applying a New Generation of Prognostics Across the Industrial Internet
What can be done?Manage the Fleet – Optimization Condition
Year: 2014
Today
Year: 2011
3.7%
As-Is Condition
100% Failures in 20
years
Optimized Condition
Reduction in % of
Failures
• Increase in turbine failure rate
expected in the next few years
• Significant increase in corrective
maintenance and O&M costs
expected in the next 5 years
• The goal is to reduce O&M costs
by reducing the risk of failure and
extending the life of turbines
• Life extension by quantifying the
impact of:
- High wind conditions
- Lubrication change
- Partial de-rating
- Uptower replacements
- Remanufacturing
Genpact
October 23, 2014
Applying a New Generation of Prognostics Across the Industrial Internet
Practical Examples - Rotorcraft
October 23, 2014
Applying a New Generation of Prognostics Across the Industrial Internet
Product Design Example: BoeingNext Generation Apache Drive Systems
Surface stress = -1200 MPa
Surface stress = -1000 MPa
1E+6 4E+6
October 23, 2014
Applying a New Generation of Prognostics Across the Industrial Internet
Sag Mill Example
October 23, 2014
Applying a New Generation of Prognostics Across the Industrial Internet
Applying a New Generation of Prognostics
Across the Industrial Internet
Supply Side Optimization
Using PrognosticsInventory and Supply
Chain optimization
Fleet Process
Optimization
O&M Improvements
SMART
GRID
October 23, 2014
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4
Applying a New Generation of Prognostics Across the Industrial Internet
Conclusion
Cartoon copied from a PhD thesis submitted at a Danish university. Wireless sensor networks illustrated as key infrastructure.
October 23, 2014
Applying a New Generation of Prognostics Across the Industrial Internet
October 23, 2014
Diagnostics(analytical models)
Prognostics(analytical +
numerical models)
Intelligent Decision Making(Rules)
Current
Health
State
Future
Health State
Operation
State
PHM applied to Industrial
Internet
Control
Pa
st
Pre
se
nt
Fu
ture
Applying a New Generation of Prognostics Across the Industrial Internet
Applying a New Generation of Prognostics
Across the Industrial Internet
![NASA Prognostics[1]](https://static.fdocuments.in/doc/165x107/547f2aaab4af9fa5158b5833/nasa-prognostics1.jpg)
