Applied Quantitative Analysis and Practices LECTURE#25 By Dr. Osman Sadiq Paracha.
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Transcript of Applied Quantitative Analysis and Practices LECTURE#25 By Dr. Osman Sadiq Paracha.
Applied Quantitative Analysis and Practices
LECTURE#25
By
Dr. Osman Sadiq Paracha
Previous Lecture Summary Inference about the slope t test for slope Inference about the slope (t test example) F test for significance Confidence Interval estimate for slope Confidence Interval concept and calculation
Inferences About the Slope: t Test
t test for a population slope Is there a linear relationship between X and Y?
Null and alternative hypotheses H0: β1 = 0 (no linear relationship) H1: β1 ≠ 0 (linear relationship does exist)
Test statistic
1b
11STAT S
βbt
2nd.f.
where:
b1 = regression slope coefficient
β1 = hypothesized slope
Sb1 = standard error of the slope
Inferences About the Slope: t Test Example
House Price in $1000s
(y)
Square Feet (x)
245 1400
312 1600
279 1700
308 1875
199 1100
219 1550
405 2350
324 2450
319 1425
255 1700
(sq.ft.) 0.1098 98.25 price house
Estimated Regression Equation:
The slope of this model is 0.1098
Is there a relationship between the square footage of the house and its sales price?
Inferences About the Slope: t Test Example
H0: β1 = 0
H1: β1 ≠ 0
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value
Intercept 98.24833 58.03348 1.69296 0.12892
Square Feet 0.10977 0.03297 3.32938 0.01039
1bSb1
329383032970
0109770
S
βbt
1b
11STAT
..
.
Inferences About the Slope: t Test Example
Test Statistic: tSTAT = 3.329
There is sufficient evidence that square footage affects house price
Decision: Reject H0
Reject H0Reject H0
a/2=.025
-tα/2
Do not reject H0
0 tα/2
a/2=.025
-2.3060 2.3060 3.329
d.f. = 10- 2 = 8
H0: β1 = 0
H1: β1 ≠ 0
Inferences About the Slope: t Test Example
H0: β1 = 0
H1: β1 ≠ 0 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value
Intercept 98.24833 58.03348 1.69296 0.12892
Square Feet 0.10977 0.03297 3.32938 0.01039
p-value
There is sufficient evidence that square footage affects house price.
Decision: Reject H0, since p-value < α
F Test for Significance
F Test statistic:
where
MSE
MSRFSTAT
1kn
SSEMSE
k
SSRMSR
where FSTAT follows an F distribution with k numerator and (n – k - 1) denominator degrees of freedom
(k = the number of independent variables in the regression model)
F-Test for Significance
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.76211
R Square 0.58082
Adjusted R Square 0.52842
Standard Error 41.33032
Observations 10
ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 18934.9348 18934.9348 11.0848 0.01039
Residual 8 13665.5652 1708.1957
Total 9 32600.5000
11.08481708.1957
18934.9348
MSE
MSRFSTAT
With 1 and 8 degrees of freedom
p-value for the F-Test
H0: β1 = 0
H1: β1 ≠ 0
= .05
df1= 1 df2 = 8
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
Reject H0 at = 0.05
There is sufficient evidence that house size affects selling price0
= .05
F.05 = 5.32Reject H0Do not
reject H0
11.08FSTAT MSE
MSR
Critical Value:
F = 5.32
F Test for Significance(continued)
F
Confidence Interval Estimate for the Slope
Confidence Interval Estimate of the Slope:
Excel Printout for House Prices:
At 95% level of confidence, the confidence interval for the slope is (0.0337, 0.1858)
1b2/1 Sb αt
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
Intercept 98.24833 58.03348 1.69296 0.12892 -35.57720 232.07386
Square Feet 0.10977 0.03297 3.32938 0.01039 0.03374 0.18580
d.f. = n - 2
Since the units of the house price variable is $1000s, we are 95% confident that the average impact on sales price is between $33.74 and $185.80 per square foot of house size
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
Intercept 98.24833 58.03348 1.69296 0.12892 -35.57720 232.07386
Square Feet 0.10977 0.03297 3.32938 0.01039 0.03374 0.18580
This 95% confidence interval does not include 0.
Conclusion: There is a significant relationship between house price and square feet at the .05 level of significance
Confidence Interval Estimate for the Slope (continued)
Confidence Interval Example
Cereal fill example Population has µ = 368 and σ = 15. If you take a sample of size n = 25 you know
368 ± 1.96 * 15 / = (362.12, 373.88). 95% of the intervals formed in this manner will contain µ.
When you don’t know µ, you use X to estimate µ If X = 362.3 the interval is 362.3 ± 1.96 * 15 / = (356.42, 368.18) Since 356.42 ≤ µ ≤ 368.18 the interval based on this sample makes a
correct statement about µ.
But what about the intervals from other possible samples of size 25?
25
25
Confidence Interval Example(continued)
Sample # XLowerLimit
UpperLimit
Containµ?
1 362.30 356.42 368.18 Yes
2 369.50 363.62 375.38 Yes
3 360.00 354.12 365.88 No
4 362.12 356.24 368.00 Yes
5 373.88 368.00 379.76 Yes
Confidence Interval Example
In practice you only take one sample of size n In practice you do not know µ so you do not
know if the interval actually contains µ However you do know that 95% of the intervals
formed in this manner will contain µ Thus, based on the one sample, you actually
selected you can be 95% confident your interval will contain µ (this is a 95% confidence interval)
(continued)
Note: 95% confidence is based on the fact that we used Z = 1.96.
Estimation Process
(mean, μ, is unknown)
Population
Random Sample
Mean X = 50
Sample
I am 95% confident that μ is between 40 & 60.
General Formula
The general formula for all confidence intervals is:
Point Estimate ± (Critical Value)(Standard Error)
Where:•Point Estimate is the sample statistic estimating the population parameter of interest
•Critical Value is a table value based on the sampling distribution of the point estimate and the desired confidence level
•Standard Error is the standard deviation of the point estimate
Confidence Intervals
Population Mean
σ Unknown
ConfidenceIntervals
PopulationProportion
σ Known
Confidence Interval for μ(σ Known)
Assumptions Population standard deviation σ is known Population is normally distributed If population is not normal, use large sample (n > 30)
Confidence interval estimate:
where is the point estimate
Zα/2 is the normal distribution critical value for a probability of /2 in each tail is the standard error
n
σ/2ZX α
X
nσ/
Finding the Critical Value, Zα/2
Consider a 95% confidence interval:
Zα/2 = -1.96 Zα/2 = 1.96
0.05 so 0.951 αα
0.0252
α
0.0252
α
Point EstimateLower Confidence Limit
UpperConfidence Limit
Z units:
X units: Point Estimate
0
1.96/2Z α
Common Levels of Confidence
Commonly used confidence levels are 90%, 95%, and 99%
Confidence Level
Confidence Coefficient,
Zα/2 value
1.28
1.645
1.96
2.33
2.58
3.08
3.27
0.80
0.90
0.95
0.98
0.99
0.998
0.999
80%
90%
95%
98%
99%
99.8%
99.9%
1
μμx
Intervals and Level of Confidence
Confidence Intervals
Intervals extend from
to
(1-)100%of intervals constructed contain μ;
()100% do not.
Sampling Distribution of the Mean
n
σ2/αZX
n
σ2/αZX
x
x1
x2
/2 /21
Example
A sample of 11 circuits from a large normal population has a mean resistance of 2.20 ohms. We know from past testing that the population standard deviation is 0.35 ohms.
Determine a 95% confidence interval for the true mean resistance of the population.
2.4068 1.9932
0.2068 2.20
)11(0.35/ 1.96 2.20
n
σ/2 ZX
μ
α
Example
A sample of 11 circuits from a large normal population has a mean resistance of 2.20 ohms. We know from past testing that the population standard deviation is 0.35 ohms.
Solution:
(continued)
DCOVA
Interpretation
We are 95% confident that the true mean resistance is between 1.9932 and 2.4068 ohms
Although the true mean may or may not be in this interval, 95% of intervals formed in this manner will contain the true mean
DCOVA
t Test for a Correlation Coefficient
Hypotheses
H0: ρ = 0 (no correlation between X and Y)
H1: ρ ≠ 0 (correlation exists)
Test statistic
(with n – 2 degrees of freedom)
2n
r1
ρ-rt
2STAT
0 b if rr
0 b if rr
where
12
12
t-test For A Correlation Coefficient
Is there evidence of a linear relationship between square feet and house price at the .05 level of significance?
H0: ρ = 0 (No correlation)
H1: ρ ≠ 0 (correlation exists)
=.05 , df = 10 - 2 = 8
3.329
210
.7621
0.762
2n
r1
ρrt
22STAT
(continued)
t-test For A Correlation Coefficient
Conclusion:There is evidence of a linear association at the 5% level of significance
Decision:Reject H0
Reject H0Reject H0
a/2=.025
-tα/2
Do not reject H0
0 tα/2
a/2=.025
-2.3060 2.3060
3.329
d.f. = 10-2 = 8
3.329
210
.7621
0.762
2n
r1
ρrt
22STAT
(continued)
Pitfalls of Regression Analysis
Lacking an awareness of the assumptions underlying least-squares regression
Not knowing how to evaluate the assumptions Not knowing the alternatives to least-squares
regression if a particular assumption is violated Using a regression model without knowledge of
the subject matter Extrapolating outside the relevant range
Strategies for Avoiding the Pitfalls of Regression
Start with a scatter plot of X vs. Y to observe possible relationship
Perform residual analysis to check the assumptions Plot the residuals vs. X to check for violations of
assumptions such as homoscedasticity Use a histogram, stem-and-leaf display, boxplot,
or normal probability plot of the residuals to uncover possible non-normality
Strategies for Avoiding the Pitfalls of Regression
If there is violation of any assumption, use alternative methods or models
If there is no evidence of assumption violation, then test for the significance of the regression coefficients and construct confidence intervals and prediction intervals
Avoid making predictions or forecasts outside the relevant range
(continued)
Lecture Summary Confidence Interval Concept Confidence Interval examples t test for correlation coefficient Application of t test in correlation coefficient Pitfalls of Regression Strategies to avoid pitfalls in regression SPSS Application in regression