Applied Population Biology -...

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References Applied Population Biology Brook Milligan Department of Biology New Mexico State University Las Cruces, New Mexico 88003 [email protected] Fall 2009 Brook Milligan Applied Population Biology

Transcript of Applied Population Biology -...

Page 1: Applied Population Biology - Web.nmsu.eduweb.nmsu.edu/~brook/courses/conservation-biology/...References Applied Population Biology Brook Milligan Department of Biology New Mexico State

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Applied Population Biology

Brook Milligan

Department of BiologyNew Mexico State University

Las Cruces, New Mexico [email protected]

Fall 2009

Brook Milligan Applied Population Biology

Page 2: Applied Population Biology - Web.nmsu.eduweb.nmsu.edu/~brook/courses/conservation-biology/...References Applied Population Biology Brook Milligan Department of Biology New Mexico State

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Questions of Importance to Thorough Conservation Plans

How should one determine if a specific conservation plan islikely to succeed?

Given that natural populations generally fluctuate, how canadditional disturbance caused by human activities bymeasured?

Brook Milligan Applied Population Biology

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Answers Require Information of Many Sorts

Environment

What habitat requirements exist?How variable is the environment?What human activities influence the environment?

Distribution

Biotic interactions

Morphology

Physiology

Demography

Behavior

Genetics

Human interaction

Brook Milligan Applied Population Biology

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Answers Require Information of Many Sorts

Environment

Distribution

How are individuals distributed within their habitat?Is new habitat colonized?Does movement or migration occur among habitat patches?

Biotic interactions

Morphology

Physiology

Demography

Behavior

Genetics

Human interaction

Brook Milligan Applied Population Biology

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Answers Require Information of Many Sorts

Environment

Distribution

Biotic interactions

What interspecific interactions exist?How have human activities influenced interspecificinteractions?

Morphology

Physiology

Demography

Behavior

Genetics

Human interaction

Brook Milligan Applied Population Biology

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Answers Require Information of Many Sorts

Environment

Distribution

Biotic interactions

Morphology

What is the shape, size, color of body parts?What is the function of body parts?Is there geographic variation in morphology?

Physiology

Demography

Behavior

Genetics

Human interaction

Brook Milligan Applied Population Biology

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Answers Require Information of Many Sorts

Environment

Distribution

Biotic interactions

Morphology

Physiology

What energy, water, and mineral requirements exist?How is environmental stress managed?

Demography

Behavior

Genetics

Human interaction

Brook Milligan Applied Population Biology

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Answers Require Information of Many Sorts

Environment

Distribution

Biotic interactions

Morphology

Physiology

Demography

What is the current population size, how has it changed in thepast?How might population size change in the future?

Behavior

Genetics

Human interaction

Brook Milligan Applied Population Biology

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Answers Require Information of Many Sorts

Environment

Distribution

Biotic interactions

Morphology

Physiology

Demography

Behavior

What behaviors of an individual allows it to survive andreproduce?How do individuals interact with each other?

Genetics

Human interaction

Brook Milligan Applied Population Biology

Page 10: Applied Population Biology - Web.nmsu.eduweb.nmsu.edu/~brook/courses/conservation-biology/...References Applied Population Biology Brook Milligan Department of Biology New Mexico State

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Answers Require Information of Many Sorts

Environment

Distribution

Biotic interactions

Morphology

Physiology

Demography

Behavior

GeneticsHow much variation exists in morphological, physiological, andbehavioral traits?How much of that variation is influenced by genetic differencesamong individuals?What fraction of the genome is variable and how variable isthe variable component?

Human interaction

Brook Milligan Applied Population Biology

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Answers Require Information of Many Sorts

Environment

Distribution

Biotic interactions

Morphology

Physiology

Demography

Behavior

Genetics

Human interaction

How do human activities influence the species?What is known by local people?

Brook Milligan Applied Population Biology

Page 12: Applied Population Biology - Web.nmsu.eduweb.nmsu.edu/~brook/courses/conservation-biology/...References Applied Population Biology Brook Milligan Department of Biology New Mexico State

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Answers Require Information of Many Sorts

Environment

Distribution

Biotic interactions

Morphology

Physiology

Demography

Behavior

Genetics

Human interaction

Brook Milligan Applied Population Biology

Page 13: Applied Population Biology - Web.nmsu.eduweb.nmsu.edu/~brook/courses/conservation-biology/...References Applied Population Biology Brook Milligan Department of Biology New Mexico State

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Sources of Information

Published scientific literature

Agency and NGO reports

Fieldwork and monitoringinventories

count of individuals presenttypically covers all individuals

surveys

repeatable sampling design to estimate population sizetypically covers subset of individuals

demography

histories of known (e.g., marked) individualsestimates of growth, survival, and reproductionprojections of population structure possible

Brook Milligan Applied Population Biology

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Using Information to Improve Managaement:Population Viability Analysis (PVA)

Need: quantify outcome under “what if . . . ” conditions

Mathematical population model, including management-basedparameters

Exploration of parameter space: alternative managementoptions

Quantitative assessment of alternative management scenariosin terms of

mean time to an event

extinctionreach a management goal

probability of an event within N years

extinctionpopulation size above or below a threshold

Brook Milligan Applied Population Biology

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PVA Example: Caretta caretta

Declining loggerhead turtle(Caretta caretta)populations

Major mortality of eggs andhatchlings

Extensive effort managingnesting beaches

Is this the rightmanagement strategy?

Are there other managementactions that would bebetter?

Brook Milligan Applied Population Biology

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PVA Example: Pedicularis furbishiae

Brook Milligan Applied Population Biology

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PVA Example: Pedicularis furbishiae

Brook Milligan Applied Population Biology

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PVA Example: Pedicularis furbishiae

Brook Milligan Applied Population Biology

Page 19: Applied Population Biology - Web.nmsu.eduweb.nmsu.edu/~brook/courses/conservation-biology/...References Applied Population Biology Brook Milligan Department of Biology New Mexico State

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PVA Example: Pedicularis furbishiae

Brook Milligan Applied Population Biology

Page 20: Applied Population Biology - Web.nmsu.eduweb.nmsu.edu/~brook/courses/conservation-biology/...References Applied Population Biology Brook Milligan Department of Biology New Mexico State

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PVA Example: Pedicularis furbishiae

Brook Milligan Applied Population Biology

Page 21: Applied Population Biology - Web.nmsu.eduweb.nmsu.edu/~brook/courses/conservation-biology/...References Applied Population Biology Brook Milligan Department of Biology New Mexico State

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PVA Example: Pedicularis furbishiae

Brook Milligan Applied Population Biology

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Metapopulations

Defining characteristic

shifting mosaic of populations (= subpopulations)linked to some degree by migrationlocally extinct subpopulations are recolonized

Types of metapopulations

equivalent, short-lived populations: e.g., Pedicularis furbishiaesource, sink populations with extinction

one of more large, persistent population(s)remaining small, transient populationsrecolonization of extinct transient populations by colonistsfrom perstent population

source, sink populations with rescue: e.g., California peregrinefalcons

one of more large, persistent population(s)remaining small, not transient, but not self-sufficientpopulationssmall populations rescued by colonists from large population

Brook Milligan Applied Population Biology

Page 23: Applied Population Biology - Web.nmsu.eduweb.nmsu.edu/~brook/courses/conservation-biology/...References Applied Population Biology Brook Milligan Department of Biology New Mexico State

References

Menges, E. S. 1990. Population viability analysis for anendangered plant. Conservation Biology, 4:52–62.

Brook Milligan Applied Population Biology