Applied Market Intelligence Auto Embedded Software: Summary European Commission Project:...
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Applied Market Intelligence
Auto Embedded Software: Summary
European Commission Project: IPTS-2009-J04-17-NC JRC/IPTS
• EU position in auto embedded software is strong• Strong future EU competitiveness has some risks• Software standards will bring major advantages• Software standards also brings commoditization
Indirect economic value and impact of auto embedded software is much higher than direct market value
Applied Market Intelligence
Auto Embedded Software: Big Picture
European Commission Project: IPTS-2009-J04-17-NC JRC/IPTS
• Auto Industry Overview & Perspectives• Software standards: Upheaval impact
• Implications of Software Standards• EU Auto Software Position: Good & Bad News
• Current Problem: Infotainment Software• Future Problems: Commoditization; EV
Software?• Retaining EU Auto Software Strength: How?
• New Software Opportunities• Infrastructure Connected Auto Software
iSuppli Corporation – 3 Copyright 2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
Worldwide Auto Sales & Production Trends
0
10
20
30
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50
60
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Millions
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2015 2020
SalesProduction
• Auto production & sales growing from 60M range in 2009 to 90M+ in 2020• Production is usually slightly higher than sales; except 2009
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Regional Auto Sales Shares
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Percent
W.Europe
EU-27 USA Japan China
20062008201020152020
• Developed countries are losing market share in auto sales: EU, USA & Japan• China & others developing regions are growing their share• EU auto industry must follow regional auto sales growth or stagnate
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Autos In-use per Capita Trend
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
#
2008 2010 2015 2020
USAW. EuropeJapanChinaA-PWorldwide
Autos in-use per 1000 people
• Autos in-use per capita shows that USA/WE/Japan are near saturation with little growth• USA/WE/Japan auto sales are primarily replacing autos that are scrapped• China, A-P and other regions are growing auto sales and autos in-use per-capita
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External Trends with Auto ICT Impact
Key Information Comments
Green Issues Lower emissionsBetter fuel efficiencyLess traffic congestion
Most improvements from ICTMost improvements from ICTEmerging ICT shows promise
Accident Mitigation
Passive system: crash protectionActive systems avoid crashes
New systems are ICT basedNew ICT warn/correct driver errors
Connected World Car
Drivers want connectionCar systems need connection
New ICT systems for connectionEmerging ICT functions
Infotainment Expansion
Digital music growthMobile device growthDigital TV & video emerging
Used in auto audio systemsConnected to auto audio systemsConnected to passenger systems
ICT=Information & Communication Technology ICT=Information, Computer & Telecommunication
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Core Auto and Infotainment Systems
Domains Function Examples
Powertrain Controls the power and its distribution to the auto
Engine controlTransmission control
Chassis Controls the functions that guides the auto’s direction and speed
Steering controlBrake controlSuspension control
Safety & ADAS
Controls the auto’s safety systems. Many new systems are emerging
Air bag controlSeat belt controlAdaptive cruise control
Body & Comfort
Controls the driver and passengers’ convenience and comfort systems. Includes dash board & related controls
Heater & air conditioningWindows & seat controlWindow wipersInstrument cluster display
Infotainment Controls the entertainment and information systems used by driver and passengers
Radio & music systemsNavigation systemsTelematics & mobile phone
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Key Auto Trends: Mostly ICT Based
Key Information Comments
Powertrain Trends
Gas & diesel engine will improveEV importance growingEV’s electricity from many sourcesLong-term EV will become leader
Mostly due to electronics advancesEV is a when, not if-questionBattery, engine-generator, hydrogenIs it in 2025 or 2035?
Driver Assist & ADAS Trends
Mostly warning systemsMostly for luxury autos Driver error correction emergingCollision mitigation emergingFuture integrated systems
Lane, blind spot, speed, parkingUltrasound park assist is exceptionStability control and othersImproves safety systems effectBased on ICT
Connected Car Trends
Multiple communication linksTelematics applications & servicesConnected navigation systemsConnected auto control systems
Embedded, driver phone & otherseCall, safety & infotainment functionsTraffic information & othersRemote diagnostics & others
Entertainment Trends
Digital radio receiversDigital music player interfacesInternet radio emergingPremium audio systems
Satellite radio in some regionsUSB, iPod and streaming BluetoothHigh bandwidth communication linkSurround sound music systems
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ECU Hardware Overview
Key Information Comments
Microcomputer (MCU)
Many types, often defined by bit-size32-bit are most powerful MCUs nowOn-chip memory for many functions On-chip electronic buses, several types
8-bit, 16-bit, 32-bit MCUs64-bit used in special casesProgram & data storageConnect to other chips/devices
Memory Extra memory for complex functions Additional memory chips
Electronic buses
Multiple buses: low to high speedHigh-speed use separate control chips
LIN, CAN, FlexRay, othersDue to higher complexity
Sensors Measure pressure, temp, speed etc. On-chip or separate chip/device
Actuators Control mechanical devices in auto Usually separate chip/device
Reliability Auto industry requires extra testingAuto-grade more reliable than PC chips
For better reliabilityHigher cost per chip/device
Electronic Control Unit (ECU)ECU is the basic building block for auto ICT systems
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Auto Software Overview
Core Auto Systems Infotainment Systems
System Examples
PowertrainChassis & BodySafety & driver assist
Entertainment (Head-unit)NavigationTelematics
Application Software Examples
ECU control software:Engine managementAnti-lock brake systemAir bag management
ECU control software:Turn-by-turn navigationDigital music player softwareeCall activation software
Operating System
Middleware softwareOS nucleus (kernel)
Middleware softwareOS nucleus (kernel)
Driver Software Examples
Electronic bus controlPressure sensor driverFuel injection driver
DVD or disk control softwareSpeech input or output softwareDisplay control software
Software Standards
AUTOSAR to be dominant GENIVI AllianceQNX, Microsoft Auto & others
SW Platform Standard: OS, SW Drivers & Standard Interfaces for Applications
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1990 2000 2010 2020
Analog Car EraAnalog control systems
Analog-Digital Car EraDigital control system growth
Digital Car EraPlatform architectureRe-usable software
SW Defined Car EraChangeable operationGraceful degradation
ECUs
AUTOSARRemote Diagnostics
ECU Growth
ECU domain clusters Software API standards Remote SW Upgrades
Auto Functionality Is Mostly Software-Defined
Complex SW-based product are eventually linked to a SW management center
Cars: not if, but when
The car is the most complex product in volume production!
Applied Market Intelligence
Auto Embedded Software: Big Picture
European Commission Project: IPTS-2009-J04-17-NC JRC/IPTS
• Auto Industry Overview & Perspectives• Software standards: Upheaval impact
• Implications of Software Standards• EU Auto Software Position: Good & Bad News
• Current Problem: Infotainment Software• Future Problems: Commoditization; EV
Software?• Retaining EU Auto Software Strength: How?
• New Software Opportunities• Infrastructure Connected Auto Software
iSuppli Corporation – 13 Copyright 2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
AUTOSAR Implications
Category Key Information Other Information
Positive Implications
EU companies lead standard effortEU companies lead deploymentStandards expand market sizeEU company opportunitiesApplication opportunity last longest
Multiple upgrades to comeEU luxury brands leadEarly EU expertise gainedOS, driver & applicationsApplications need innovation
Negative Implications
Standards increase competitionStandards lead to commodity productsCommodity products has low profit
Global expertise, not localPost 2015 for OS & driverFavours low-cost regions
Current implications are primarily POSITIVE Future implications: Some are NEGATIVE
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GENIVI Implications
Category Key Information Other Information
Positive Implications
Infotainment OS/API standard effortOpen source advantagesStandards expand market sizeEU company opportunitiesApplication opportunity last longest
US, EU & other regionsLow cost, no dominant playerMany advantagesOS, driver & applicationsApplications need innovation
Negative Implications
GENIVI not likely to be dominantNo head start for EU companiesStandards increase competitionStandards lead to commoditizationCommodity products has low profit
QNX & Microsoft competitionUnlike in AUTOSARGlobal expertise, not localPost 2015 for OS & driverFavors low-cost regions
Current implications are primarily POSITIVE Future implications: Some are NEGATIVE
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Auto Software Standard Landscape
Core Auto SystemsPowertrain systemsChassis & SafetyADAS & Driver AssistBody systemsComfort & Convenience
Infotainment SystemsAudio systemsNavigation systemsRear/front-seat entertainmentMobile device connectionsTelematics systems
AUTOSARApps software interfaceSoftware standardsMultiple MCUs2009-10 deployment
GENIVIApps software interfaceSoftware standardsBMW, GM, PSA, Renault2012-13 deployment
Others?
Microsoft AutoApps software interfaceSoftware standardsFiat, Ford, Hyundai/Kia2006 deployment
QNX CARApps software interfaceReference platformUsed by most OEMs2002 deployment
AndroidApps software interfaceSoftware standardsConti auto platform2012-13 deployment
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Software Standard Impact
Impact/Changes Comments
OEM Control
Higher level building blocksOEM retains more controlDesign details less important
Computer platform componentsSystem architecture become crucialTier 1 may provide less value
New Suppliers
Computer platform focusContract manufacturers
bSquare, Elektrobit, Vector, dSpaceFlextronics (Ford Sync)
Feature Growth
Faster feature upgradesRemote feature upgrade
Platform-based design advantageUsed by Ford Sync
Cost Savings
Fewer ECU typesHigher ECU volumesRe-usable system softwareBetter development toolsFewer software errorsCommoditization post-2015
Standard ECUs tailored by softwareLower cost per ECULower cost per OS & driver softwareHigher software design efficiencyLower software development costFrom local to global competition
Commodity Effect
Hardware commoditizationSoftware commoditization
Eventually happens with standardsNew features to grow software value
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Transportation Systems
• ITS software• V2X software
Auto Impact Systems
• PC software• Mobile phone apps• Digital content/SW• Web content/SW
Auto Related Software Spectrum
Software Design Tools
• Software design• SW simulation• Software testing
Infotainment Software
Test & Diagnostic Software
ITS & V2X Software
Auto Embedded Software
• Core auto software• Infotainment software• Future applications
• New core SW• New infotainment SW
Applied Market Intelligence
Auto Embedded Software: Big Picture
European Commission Project: IPTS-2009-J04-17-NC JRC/IPTS
• Auto Industry Overview & Perspectives• Software standards: Upheaval impact
• Implications of Software Standards• EU Auto Software Position: Good & Bad News
• Current Problem: Infotainment Software• Future Problems: Commoditization; EV
Software?• Retaining EU Auto Software Strength: How?
• New Software Opportunities• Infrastructure Connected Auto Software
iSuppli Corporation – 19 Copyright 2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
EU Auto ICT Position
Category Key Information Other InformationLuxury Auto Position
Luxury autos always ICT EU has 3 top luxury brands
Due to initial high ICT priceBMW, Mercedes-Benz & Audi
Strong ICT Suppliers
ICT innovation for luxury brandsLater ICT for volume brandsNon-EU ICT business follows
Early market entry & leadershipLearning curve & tech advancesFrom non-EU auto manufacturers
Independent Auto Suppliers
All key EU suppliers independentCaptive suppliers in USA & Japan
More competition & business savvyDelphi/Visteon/Denso captive earlier
Key ICT Suppliers
Bosch & Continental are leadersAutoliv, Hella, Valeo, others
Across most ICT segmentsLeaders in specific ICT segments
Software Companies
Many small, strong companiesMostly focused on EU ICT
Focused on specific auto mfgsSome global success, more is likely
Automotive Semi
Infineon & ST Micro are leadersNXP and others are strong
Across many ICT segmentsLeaders in specific ICT segments
Current Status: Nearly All Good News
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EU Technology: Strengths and Weaknesses
Key Information Other Information
BMW Leading luxury brand worldwideSoftware innovatorLeader in AUTOSAR & Genivi
USA, Europe and other regionsCrucial to continued EU SW leadershipUnderstands benefits of SW API
VW 3rd largest auto producerLeader in EU, China, other regionsTop EU electronics customer
Gained share in 2009 recessionStrong presence in most regionsSoftware, semiconductor & electronics
Other EU Auto OEMs
M-B is another luxury brand leaderM-B: 2nd to BMW in SW innovationOthers are average in SW
USA, Europe and other regionsStrong in driver assist and ADASPSA, Renault & Fiat
Tier 1 Companies
Bosch & Continental: World-classMany other strong companiesEU has strongest Tier 1 companies
Multiple segments, Strong in SWAutoliv, Hella, Magneti, ValeoEU position, but also other regions
Semi Companies
Infineon & ST Micro: World-classNXP strong in infotainment
Across multiple auto segmentsOther good companies in automotive
EU Weakness
Too focused on combustion engineEV: when-question, not if-questionEU can catch-up in EVInfotainment SW is fair to good
EU strength, but will fade post 2020EU has the most to loseRequires public-private effortMore infotainment effort needed
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StrengthsLuxury car leader: most SW is introducedAUTOSAR: Standards leadershipAUTOSAR: SW competency & deploymentDiesel & gasoline engine softwareChassis control software (ABS, ESC)Safety and driver assist softwareSoftware and software tool companiesV2X R&D programs (CVIS & others)
Opportunities EV software advances may make EU
leaders at EV system level Auto apps store leadership ADAS software, systems & apps eCall regulation as way to catch-up
in telematics & connected car apps V2X software & systems (regulation
needed) Autonomous driving (post-2020)
WeaknessesCurrent EV deployment Current EV developmentInfotainment software OS & API standardsInfotainment application softwareTelematics software and deployment
Threats AUTOSAR commodity software
(post-2015) Infotainment commodity software
(post-2015) EV growth negates powertrain SW
market leadership (post-2020)
EU Embedded Software SWOT: Current
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EU Auto Embedded Software Problems
Software Comments
Current Problem
Infotainment OSGENIVI: EU Infotainment OS?Infotainment applications
Mostly led by US companiesTo counter QNX & MicrosoftFew EU software leaders
Future Problem
EV softwareEngine management
Time enough to reactImportance to decline
Future Problem
Software commoditizationAUTOSAR software
Software standard impactWorldwide supplier base
Applied Market Intelligence
Auto Embedded Software: Big Picture
European Commission Project: IPTS-2009-J04-17-NC JRC/IPTS
• Auto Industry Overview & Perspectives• Software standards: Upheaval impact
• Implications of Software Standards• EU Auto Software Position: Good & Bad News
• Current Problem: Infotainment Software• Future Problems: Commoditization; EV
Software?• Retaining EU Auto Software Strength: How?
• New Software Opportunities• Infrastructure Connected Auto Software
iSuppli Corporation – 24 Copyright 2000-2009 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
Retaining EU Software Leadership
Strategy Why or How
Minimize commodity software impact Continue moving to advanced software
Target new promising opportunities High-value opportunities
Strengthen infotainment software EU can get better position
Invest in EV battery system software Possible EV catch-up technology
Connect software to infrastructure Local presence advantages
Improve software skills Quality and quantity
Train software project managers asap Highest software manpower need
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New Software Overview
Applications Comments
Core Auto Software
Petrol & diesel engine controlEV battery system softwareADAS applicationsRemote ECU software upgrades
Fuel efficiency improvementNot established yetACC, LDW, BSDError fix; functional update
Connected Car Software
Telematics software & serviceConnected navigationConnected entertainmentRemote control
eCall; Remote diagnosticsDestination downloadInternet radioDoor unlock, lights on/off
Infrastructure Connected Software
V2V applicationsV2I applicationsITS applications
Collision avoidanceIntersection applicationsTraffic applications
Autonomous Driving
Platoon drivingHighway autonomous driving
Post 2020 applicationPost 2020 application
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Future Embedded Software Opportunities
Category Key Information Other InformationConnected Car Application Software
Many applications emergingEU is behind USA in telematicseCall: basis for telematics appsMultiple com links emerging
For car, driver & passengersLink to ECUs become importanteCall is EU chance to catch upECU, driver & infotainment links
ADAS Software
Software intensive systemsMany applications emergingBuilds on driver assist appsEU: ADAS & sensor expertise
Sensor-based systemsMajor life and cost saverWarns or corrects driver errorsLeverage into SW leadership
V2V & V2I Software
Many applications possibleEU’s CVIS R&D project is keyMore EU development neededEarly deployment create expertise
Safety, traffic & fuel-savingsPublic & private cooperationTo complete system architectureSystems & software experience
Autonomous Driving Software
Builds on ADAS & V2X systemsMore autonomous functionsCompute, sensor & SW intensive
Deployment likely after 2020Complex ECUs and softwareLarge software opportunities
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Auto Embedded Software: Conclusions
EU software industry is currently well positioned EU has lead the development of auto software standards There are current weaknesses and future issues
Software standards bring many advantages to EU auto industry Re-usable software and more reliable applications Future software development cost savings and other advantages
Software standards are also bringing future risk to EU auto software labor force size
Shifting of software development & design to low-cost regions Due to software commoditization and lack of skilled software personnel This is the main threat to EU embedded auto software industry
Future software opportunities can lower the commoditization threat Application innovation is key to retain lead in high-value auto software
EU Commission need to understand that auto embedded software have a multiplier effect well above its direct economic value
Auto functionality and features are mostly software-defined Software is a major and growing factor in EU auto OEM competitiveness