Application of Simulated Data: The Mt Etna Case Langer, Tusa, Scarfì, Azarro, Varini*, Zonno…...
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Transcript of Application of Simulated Data: The Mt Etna Case Langer, Tusa, Scarfì, Azarro, Varini*, Zonno…...
Application of Simulated Data: The Mt Etna Case
Langer, Tusa, Scarfì, Azarro, Varini*, Zonno…INGV – Oss. Etneo, Catania, Italy
CNR-IMATI – Milano, Italy
Tectonic & Geological Features
Siniscalco et al., 2012
Deformation Field
Regional Displacement field, see D’Agostino & Selvaggi, 2004
Horizontal Displacement (p. a., in mm) see Gugielmino et al., 2011
Seismicity Patterns Etna(2009-2012)
© INGV – staff analysts Oss. Etneo, Catania)-
Typical Waveforms of Shallow (SEE) and Deeper Etna Events
(DEE)
-2.0E+06
-1.5E+06
-1.0E+06
-5.0E+05
0.0E+00
5.0E+05
1.0E+06
1.5E+06
2.0E+06
0 5 10 15 20 25
Time (s)
Vel
oci
ty (
cts)
-3.0E+06
-2.0E+06
-1.0E+06
0.0E+00
1.0E+06
2.0E+06
3.0E+06
0 5 10 15 20 25
Time (s)
Vel
oci
ty (
cts)
-3.0E+06
-2.0E+06
-1.0E+06
0.0E+00
1.0E+06
2.0E+06
3.0E+06
0 5 10 15 20 25
Time (s)
Vel
oci
ty (
cts)
-1.5E+06
-1.0E+06
-5.0E+05
0.0E+00
5.0E+05
1.0E+06
1.5E+06
0 5 10 15 20 25
Time (s)
Vel
oci
ty (
cts)
-2.0E+06
-1.5E+06
-1.0E+06
-5.0E+05
0.0E+00
5.0E+05
1.0E+06
1.5E+06
2.0E+06
0 5 10 15 20 25
Time (s)
Vel
oci
ty (
cts)
-2.5E+06
-2.0E+06
-1.5E+06
-1.0E+06
-5.0E+05
0.0E+00
5.0E+05
1.0E+06
1.5E+06
2.0E+06
2.5E+06
0 5 10 15 20 25
Time (s)
Vel
oci
ty (
cts)
E
N
Z
Supferf. Etnean Event (M=3.8, d=5km, z= 1 km) Deeper Etnean Event (M=3.6, d=5km, z= 6 km)
The basement of Mt Etna
Resistivity profile after Siniscalco et al., 2012. Intermediate resisitivy (several to ca. 60 Ohm.m are indentified as sedimentary substratum, mainly tertiary and quaternary clays)
Data Set from Relevant Areas
Empirical GMPEs
Group Y a b c LogY
SEE*
PGA (cm s-2) -0.805 0.817 -1.989 0.372
PGV (cm s-1) -2.898 1.060 -1.829 0.365
PGD (cm) -4.580 1.279 -1.668 0.382
DEE**PGA (cm s-2) -0.298 0.845 -2.002 0.372
PGV (cm s-1) -2.071 0.883 -1.813 0.328
PGD (cm) -3.474 0.862 -1.523 0.345
EEE***PGA (cm s-2) -0.293 0.809 -1.835 0.410
PGV (cm s-1) -2.322 0.946 -1.704 0.347
PGD (cm) -4.061 1.003 -1.402 0.369
Empirical Ground Motion Prediction(3<M<4.8)
Shallow (z=1km), M=4.3 Deep(z=25),M=4.4
The Problem of Direct Extrapolation of empirical GMPEs
-1
0
1
2
3
4
0.5 1 1.5 2
Log Dist [km]
Lo
g P
GA
[g
al]
Etna DEE M=4 Etna DEE M=6 Sabette & Pugliese '87 M=4 Sabetta & Pugliese '87 M=6
A Way Out: Complex Extented Source Model (EXSIM)
-4-3.5
-3-2.5
-2-1.5
-1-0.5
0
0.51
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Log Dist Hypo (km)
Lo
g A
max
(g
al)
First attempts…Empirical Results for M=3.3
Synthetic Results (EXSIMI) for Standard Input Parameters (M=3.3,
z=1 km, L=W=500m, stress =5 bar, Q=30*f0.7)
Trial Input Parameters (Etna)Q0 (f < 1Hz) QN βS (sup/deep) βM (sup/deep) R-1 R0 R-0.5
90 90*f0.7 1.8/3.0 km/s 2.4-3.0/3-3.5 km/s 0-35 35-70 >70 km
βS= velocity at sourc, βM = velocity of propagation medium (geom. spreading)
Mw (5/50 bar) 3.3/4.0 4.3/5.0 5.3/6.0 --/7.0Length (km) 0.88 2.8 8.8 28.0Width (km) 0.44 1.4 4.4 14.0
Etna 1914 Etna 9.10.2002Mw 5 4.8
Stress 20 bar 20 barLength (km) 8.0 5.6Width (km) 2.5 1.4
General scaling laws
Case studies (superficial)
SEE, M=3.3.fmax =5
DEE, M=4
Exsim Synthetic (Hardrock) vs. Empiric
Site Thickness S-Velocity Density QSite C 5 m 100 m/s 1700 kg/m3 10
5 m 400 m/s 1700 kg/m3 20Site B 20 m 400 m/s 1700 kg/m3 15
Volc. Rock 100 m 2000 m/s 2000 kg/m3 30
Layer Thickness S-velocity Density Q
Shale 100 m 600 m/s 1800 kg/m3 20
Cons. Shale 500 m 1500 m/s 2100 kg/m3 70
Cons. Shale 300 m 1700 m/s 2200 kg/m3 100
Limestone 5000 m 2600 m/s 2500 kg/m3 150
Basement 3500 m/s 2800 kg/m3
Generalized Velocity Models
Case Mt Etna, 1914. M=5, I =IX
I (Observed)
I (from Housner Intensity: I = 1.41 ln (Ih)
+7.98
Exsim, Site C
Exsim, Site B
Exsim, Hardrock
Case Mt Etna 1914 (M ca. 5, I = IX)
I (Observed)
Case Etna, 1914, (ctd)
Log PGA (gal), syn Log PGV (cm/s), syn.
Etna 29.10.2002 Etna 29.10.2002 (EXSIM)Io VIII 8
PGA 18 km 15 gal 8…15 galPGV 4.5 cm/s 0.6..1.1 cm/s
From Milana et al., 2008
Exsim simulation for M=6 DEE event: Catania /Acireale 1818
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
0.5 1 1.5 2
Log Dist Campbell [km]
Lo
g P
GA
[g
al]
M=4
M=5
M=6
M=7
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
0.5 1 1.5 2
Log Dist JB [km]
Lo
g P
GA
[g
al ]
M=4
M=5
M=6
M=7
“Extrapolation” via synthetic simulation
-1
0
1
2
3
4
0.5 1 1.5 2
Lo
g P
GA
[g
al]
Log Dist [km]
Etna DEE M=4
Etna DEE M=6
Sabette & Pugliese '87 M=4
Sabetta & Pugliese '87 M=6
Conclusion
• Distinction of two dynamic regimes• Different GMPE for shallow and deeper events• Empirical GMPEs should not extrapolated to
larger events• Small events may be used for calibrating input
pameters in synthetic modelling• Discrepances between empirical GMPEs for
large and small earthquakes can be explained by using extended sources.