Abhik Kumar Das

TECHNICAL PAPER PRESENTATION – 9TH MARCH 2017

Director

Del2infinity Energy Consulting

Applicability of Error Limit in Forecasting & Scheduling of Windand Solar Power in India

• Wind and Solar - Clean but Variable• Variability & intermittency breaks network stability• Scheduling in Solar & Wind power generation is a

requirement for grid stability• Regulations regarding Forecasting & Scheduling of Wind

and solar are already proposed by CERC, FOR and StateRegulators

Error in Forecast

Where AvC is the available capacity;and are actual generation and scheduled

generation respectively.

Value ofm FOR Gujarat Jharkhand Karnataka MP Odisha Rajasthan TNWind (Old) 0.15 0.12 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.10Wind (New) 0.10 0.08 0.10 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.10

Solar (Old) 0.15 0.07 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.05Solar (New) 0.10 0.07 0.10 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.05

Variability in Actual Powergeneration

Regulation, m

Measure of Forecast

r = correlation coefficientof actual and schedulepower generation

Forecast Error Distribution

Normalized frequency distribution of forecast error for different days of (A) solarforecasting and (B) wind forecasting with ‘Single Revision’

Penalty due to deviation

Where c(e) is the penalty due to the error and h(e) can be represented as probability of error inthe forecast models.

And is defined as the standard deviation of the error distribution. P(m) is theprobability the error is under no penalty error band

Variability in Actual Powergeneration

Regulation, m

Measure 1 of Forecast

r = correlation coefficientof actual and schedulepower generation

Measure 2 of Forecast

: the standarddeviation of the errordistribution

Penalty due to deviation

Analysis of

Need of revision and Phase in

• A good forecasting methodology is not only a solution having thehigh forecast accuracy and low penalty due to the deviation, but asolution to maintain the similar or better accuracy in the minimumnumber of intra-day revisions.

• Variability analysis required to minimize the number of revision

• In some cases revision is allowable but chargeable similar to thescheduling of other energy sources

Wind Forecast : 16 Revision

Solar Forecast : Single Revision

“THANK YOU”