Appendix for Chapter 2 Natural Conditions and Field Surveysthousand TEU which is four times as that...

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Appendix for Chapter 2 Natural Conditions and Field Surveys

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(1) Bathymetric Survey Results

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(2) Shoreline Survey Results

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(3) Topographic Survey Results

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Appendix for Chapter 3 Cargo Demand Forecast

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A3-1 Container Cargo Movement in the Indian Ocean Region 1) Container Throughput The following figures show the recent 10 years movement of container throughput of major ports in the Indian Ocean region. In the figure, Manila port was added for reference since the port is operated by ICTSI which the parent company of Toamasina’s MICTSL.

Figure A3-1-1 Locations of the Surrounding Country’s Ports

Container Throughput

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UAE: DubaiS.Africa: DurbanOman: SalalahSri-Lanka: ColomboIndia: Jawaharlal NehruPhilippines: ManilaS.Africa: Cape TownS.Africa: Port ElizabethMozanbique: MaputoKenya: MombasaTanzania: Dar es SalaamSeychelles: Port VictoriaReunion: Port ReunionMauritius: Port LouisMadagascar: Toamasina

Group A(Dubai)

Group B

Group C

Figure A3-1-2 Container Cargo Throughput of Surrounding Country’s Ports (1)

(source : ci-online)

As an attempt, these ports were divided into three groups. Group A contains only one port Dubai in UAE, whose range of throughput is over 10 million TEU. Group B contains Durban (S.Africa), Salalah (Oman), Colombo (Sri-Lanka), Jawaharlal Nehru (India), and Manila (Philippines) whose range of throughputs are in 2-4 million TEU. Group C contains Toamasina as well as other African ports whose range of throughputs are in less than 1 million TEU. Comparing three groups, all ports positioned in the range less than 3 million TEU in 1997, whereas during these 10 years Dubai has taken off exceptionally by its strategy of trans-shipment business for surrounding countries. Looking at group B, all are national prime port of each country. It is noticed that Salalah and Colombo extended their throughput by the trans-shipment business in which the rate of growth is more than the growth of domestic economy. Jawaharlal Nehru and Durban have the

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characteristics that they extended the throughputs based on the strong domestic growth of economy while their trans-shipment ratio are rather lower than the others. It is also noticed that the gap between group B and group C seems becoming wider during these 5 years. Toamasina Port positions in group C, whose growths are lower and failed to take off during these 10 years. The following figure shows the details of group C ports. In the group C, Cape Town, Mombasa, Port Elizabeth, Port Louis and Dar es Salaam are growing gradually, while other ports including Toamasina the rate of growth are lower.

Container Throughput Group C

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S.Africa: Port Elizabeth

Mozanbique: Maputo

Kenya: Mombasa

Tanzania: Dar es Salaam

Seychelles: Port Victoria

Reunion: Port Reunion

Mauritius: Port Louis

Madagascar: Toamasina

Figure A3-1-3 Container Cargo Throughput of Surrounding Countries (2)

(source : ci-online)

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2) Container Vessel Rout The following Table shows the regular sea-line container and car carrier services connecting to Toamasina port in 2007 and their vessel particulars. There are 1 car carrier’s rout and 4 container regular routs for Toamasina port. In 2007, Toamasina port received 48 services of car carriers and 182 services of container lines. The size of vessels are in the range of 660 - 2,500 TEU capacities for container carriers.

Table A3-1-1 Container Vessel Routs Connect to Toamasina Port (2007) NO ROUT VESSEL NAME FLAG TYPE DWT GT NT LOA LBP B Dr Dep Cars TEU BOXWIDTH

REFPLUG SPEED YEAR OPERATOR

SERVFREQ

MORNING ROSE NIS VC 15,603 45,007 13,502 194.04 180.02 32.31 9.02 21.16 5,250 173 0 0 18.00 1980HOEGH TROPICANA NIS VC 12,003 33,359 10,008 180.02 167.75 29.27 8.50 12.55 3,550 173 0 0 17.50 1980HOEGH TRACER NIS VC 12,961 33,236 10,338 180.02 167.01 29.24 8.82 12.37 3,640 173 0 0 17.50 1981HOEGH ASIA BAH VC 21,484 56,835 19,776 199.90 190.00 32.26 10.02 13.95 6,100 - 0 0 20.50 2000HOEGH TREASURE BAH VC 21,199 58,684 17,606 199.90 190.38 32.26 10.02 22.20 6,100 - 0 0 19.50 1999AUTO ATLAS KOR VC 23,069 52,422 17,216 199.52 189.24 32.26 10.02 21.04 5,193 - 0 0 18.00 1988EURO SPIRIT LIB VC 15,483 46,346 13,904 188.00 178.00 31.20 9.11 30.90 4,095 - 0 0 19.00 1998ATLANTIC SPIRIT LIB VC 16,165 47,287 14,678 190.02 180.02 33.25 8.93 13.31 4,838 170 0 0 19.50 1987UNIVERSAL SPIRIT LIB VC 13,025 39,948 11,984 173.53 164.01 30.48 8.92 12.37 4,435 - 0 0 19.50 1985KIWI AUCKLAND NOR VC 13,295 37,841 11,352 175.01 166.02 28.81 8.52 13.01 4,250 - 0 0 18.00 1985HOEGH DETROIT NOR VC 15,921 68,169 25,239 229.00 220.00 32.29 9.00 19.93 6,545 - 0 0 20.50 2006HUAL DURBAN PAN VC 18,381 59,217 17,766 199.90 192.00 32.26 9.61 35.80 6,402 - 0 0 19.50 2004JINSEI MARU JAP VC 17,435 58,117 17,435 198.60 188.00 32.20 9.67 14.30 5,582 - 0 0 19.00 1990OLIVIA LIB FC 20,416 14,936 7,500 167.07 156.77 25.00 9.80 13.40 - 1,452 10 105 19.00 1995ATLANTIC TRADER ANT FC 22,024 16,165 9,227 167.97 156.00 26.70 10.82 14.40 - 1,600 10 200 19.00 1996OCEAN TRADER ANT FC 22,250 16,165 9,227 168.37 156.00 26.70 10.82 14.40 - 1,600 10 200 19.50 1996MOL MONO PAN FC 29,304 24,724 16,814 199.88 190.00 30.50 10.27 16.40 - 2,011 12 200 20.00 1999MOL SASSANDRA PAN FC 28,879 25,497 10,638 193.90 184.00 32.20 10.27 16.40 - 2,135 13 200 20.00 1999MOL NIGER PAN FC 29,277 24,724 10,814 199.88 190.00 30.50 10.27 16.40 - 2,011 12 200 20.00 1999MOL VOLTA PAN FC 28,917 25,497 10,638 193.90 184.00 32.20 10.27 16.40 - 2,135 13 200 20.00 1999MOL OUEME PAN FC 29,266 24,724 10,814 199.88 190.00 30.50 10.27 16.40 - 1,697 12 200 20.00 1999MOL SATISFACTION ANT FC 33,843 25,705 12,028 208.10 197.09 29.80 11.40 16.40 - 2,526 12 394 22.00 1999MOL SUNSHINE ANT FC 33,917 25,535 12,454 199.80 187.90 29.80 11.55 16.50 - 2,476 12 400 22.00 2000MOL DREAM ANT FC 33,900 25,361 12,733 207.40 195.40 29.80 11.40 16.40 - 2,460 12 400 22.00 2001

RT-4 MADAGASCAR -MAURITIUS MSC LONGONI ANT FC 8,015 6,704 3,557 132.60 123.40 19.20 7.22 9.20 - 660 7 75 17.00 2003 MSC 26

KOTA AKBAR SING FC 22,257 17,738 6,334 176.68 164.00 27.07 10.03 14.60 - 1,267 10 100 18.50 1993LONDON TOWER LIB FC 23,884 17,651 8,135 182.84 170.00 28.00 9.53 14.00 - 1,500 11 133 19.00 1994KOTA MAWAR ANT FC 22,494 16,266 8,739 179.70 167.26 25.30 9.94 13.50 - 1,660 10 170 19.50 1994KOTA MANIS LIB FC 22,426 16,191 8,719 179.29 167.72 25.30 9.94 13.50 - 1,524 10 120 19.00 1994KOTA ANGGUN SING FC 23,842 17,652 8,156 182.83 170.00 28.00 9.53 14.00 - 1,454 11 100 19.00 1999KOTA HAPAS HK FC 18,889 13,491 7,314 159.53 150.00 25.00 9.22 12.80 - 1,100 10 150 18.50 2002

(CAR CARRIER)JAPAN -

OCEANIA -AFRICA -EUROPE

SALALAH - EASTAFRICA

HONGKONG -SINGAPORE -

AFRICA

ASIA - EASTAFRICA

RT-1

RT-2

RT-3

RT-5

HOEGHAUTOLINERS

MAERSKLINE

MOL

PIL

48

52

52

52

Source: MDS, Lloyd’s Resister The car carriers for RT-1 are circulating Japan and the countries in Oceania, South-east Africa including Toamasina, Middle East and Europe. This rout is mainly to supply cars manufactured in Japan to these countries. Service frequency for this line is about once a week.

TOAMASINA

RT-1VESSEL TYPE : VEHICLE CARRIEROPERATOR : HOEGH AUTOLINERSDWT : 12,003~23,069 DWTLOA : 173.53~229.00MDRAFT : 8.50~10.02MCAPACITY : 3,550~6,545 CARSSERVICE FREQUENCY 2007 48 VOYAGES

Rotterdam

Bremerhaven Tyne

Antwerp Le Havre

Santander

Southampton

Bristol Amsterdam

Port Louis

Port Reunion

Durban

East London Fremantle

Melbourne

Sydney

Brisbane Noumea

Kawasaki Osaka

Kanda

Nagoya

Figure A3-1-4 RT-1 (Car Carrier)

RT-2 is operated by Maersk Line and distributing trans-shipment containers from Salalah port in Oman to the east African island countries. It is noted that the Salalah port is fully managed by APM Terminals and the regional base port of Maersk Line. Service frequency for this line is once a week.

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TOAMASINA

RT-2VESSEL TYPE : FULL CONTAINEROPERATOR : MAERSK LINEDWT : 12,003~23,069 DWTLOA : 167.07~168.37MDRAFT : 9.80~10.82MCAPACITY : 1,452~1,600TEUSERVICE FREQUENCY 2007 52 VOYAGES

Port Reunion

Port Victoria

Port Louis

Salalah

Mutsamudu

Figure A3-1-5 RT-2

RT-3 is operated by MOL and connecting Hong Kong･ Singapore and African countries, which is supposed to distribute trans-shipment containers to these regions through the Asian big-2 ports. Service frequency for this line is once a week.

TOAMASINA

RT3VESSEL TYPE : FULL CONTAINEROPERATOR : MOLDWT : 28,879~33,917 DWTLOA : 193.90~208.10MDRAFT : 10.27~11.55MCAPACITY : 1,697~2,526TEUSERVICE FREQUENCY 2007 52 VOYAGES

Port Louis

Singapore

Hong Kong

Durban

Cape Town

Lagos

Cotonou

Lome

Tema Abidjan

Figure A3-1-6 RT-3

RT-4 is the regional line operated by MSL and connecting Mauritius: Port Louis and Madagascar Toamasina. The size of the vessel is 660TEU which is a little smaller than other lines. Service frequency for this line is once in two weeks.

TOAMASINA

RT4VESSEL TYPE : FULL CONTAINEROPERATOR : MSCDWT : 8,015 DWTLOA : 132.60MDRAFT : 7.22MCAPACITY : 660TEUSERVICE FREQUENCY 2007 26 VOYAGES

Port Louis

Longoni

Figure A3-1-7 RT-4

RT-5 is operated by PIL and connecting China, Singapore, Colombo and African countries, which is supposed to distribute trans-shipment containers from Asian major ports to African countries. Service frequency for this line is once a week.

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TOAMASINA

RT5VESSEL TYPE : FULL CONTAINEROPERATOR : PILDWT : 18,889~23,884 DWTLOA : 159.53~182.84MDRAFT : 9.22~10.03MCAPACITY : 1,100~1,660TEUSERVICE FREQUENCY 2007 52 VOYAGES

Port Louis Port Reunion

Colombo

Singapore

Shanghai

Ningbo

Dar-es-Salaam

Mombasa

Figure A3-1-8 RT-5

The overview of these container regular lines shows that the major regional hub-ports connecting to Toamasina are Salalah, Colombo, Singapore and Hongkong. In addition, it can be found that all the routs passing Toamasina also stop in Port Louis of Mauritius. Port Louis is located closed by Toamasina in the Indian Ocean region, and has the similar geographical condition, i.e. the island country. The container throughput of Port Louis is approx, 40 thousand TEU which is four times as that of Toamasina port. The next figures show the container lines connecting to Port Louis which do not stop in Toamasina port. It is noticed that Port Louis has 12 routs more than Toamasina and is playing a role of regional trans-shipment hub port.

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PORT LOUIS

Durban

Khor Fakkan Damman

Rio de Janeiro

Paranagua

Santos

Bandar Abbas

Jawaharlal Nehru Salalah

Sao Francisco du Sul

Rio Grande PORT LOUIS

Colombo

Port Klang

Shanghai Ningbo

Fuzhou Chiwan

Abidjan

Lome

Tema

Lagos

Cotonou

PORT LOUIS Durban

Port Klang

Shanghai Nansha Chiwan

Abidjan

Lome

Tema

Lagos

Tin Can Island

Xingang

Quindao Busan

Lobito

PORT LOUIS

Rotterdam London

Le Havre

Port Reunion

Djibouti

Melbourne

Sydney

Brisbane

Auckland

Hamburg

FOS La Spezia

Lyttelton

Damietta

PORT LOUIS

Port Victoria

Jawaharlal Nehru

Durban Maputo

Nacala

PORT LOUIS Durban

Tanjung Pelepas

Shanghai Ningbo

Yantian

Cape Town

Hong Kong

PORT LOUIS Durban

Tanjung Pelepas

Hong Kong

Port Elizabeth

PORT LOUIS

Port Reunion

PORT LOUIS

Durban

Dar es Salaam

Shuaiba/Shuwaikh

Dubai Jeddah

Richards Bay

Port Sudan

Mombasa

Damman Karachi

Mumbai

PORT LOUIS

Antwerp Felixstowe

Le Havre

Port Reunion

Jeddah

Melbourne Sydney Adelaide

Tanjung Priok

FOS La Spezia

Singapore

Port Said

Montoir

Valencia

Naples

Fremantle

Colombo

PORT LOUIS

Durban

Singapore

Shanghai Chiwan

Hong Kong

Port Reunion

PORT LOUIS

Dar es Salaam Mombasa

Figure A3-1-9 Container Vessel Routs Connect to Port Louis (2007)

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A3-2 Demand Forecast of Container Cargo and Verifications (1) Demand Forecast of Container Cargo The following figure shows the container throughput data of Toamasina Port in the period from 1990 to 2008. As an initial attempt, a secondary degree’s curve using least-square method was drawn on the chart (blue dotted curve). The curve shows good fitting along the all data plots which have gradual curvature whose end is going up-ward. In order to evaluate optimum annual growth rate, three curves were drawn assuming growth rates, 8%, 10% and 12% taking the throughput figure in 2005 as the basic point. The standard deviations of these three curves are as follows. Figures of Standard Deviation 1) Growth Rate 8% 132 (Thousands TEU) 2) Growth Rate 10% 100 (Thousands TEU) 3) Growth Rate 12% 140 (Thousands TEU)

Container Cargo Throughput of Toamasina Port

y = 186.96x2 - 741,561.34x + 735,344,687.82

010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000

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PLAN NATIONAL DE TRANSPORT (2004-2020)ci-online & MICTSLFigures This Report TakenCalculated Line Assuming the Growth Rate 12%Calculated Line Assuming the Growth Rate 10%Calculated Line Assuming the Growth Rate 8%Curve Fitting (Figure Report Taken)

Concession ContractbetweenSPAT & MICTSL

Figure A3-2-1 Optimum Curve for Container Cargo Demand Forecast

As the result of these simple analyses, the curve of 10% annual growth shows the best fitting taking the data of past 18 years. As the conclusion of the report, proposed demand forecast of container throughput takes 10% annual growth. However, in order to consider rather wide fluctuations of the past data, 12% growth as the ‘aggressive scenario’ and 10% growth as the ‘conservative scenario’ are also proposed.

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Container Cargo Throughput of Toamasina Port

316,797

558,304

264,562

426,079

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Calculated Line Assuming the Growth Rate 12%



Figure A3-2-2 Demand Forecast of Container Cargo Throughput

The following table shows the prediction figures in 2015 and 2020 for each scenario. Taking the proposed scenario, the container throughput in 2015 and 2020 will reach 264,562 TEU and 426,079 TEU respectively.

Table A3-2-1 Demand Forecast of Container Throughput of Toamasina Port Present Figure

2008(TEU) (TEU) Growth (TEU) Growth

Conservative Scenario 8.0% 220,210 54% 323,561 126%Proposed Scenario 10.0% 264,562 85% 426,079 197%Aggressive Scenario 12.0% 316,797 121% 558,304 290%

143,307

2015 2020AssumedGrowth

Rate

Forecast of Container Cargo Throughput

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(2) Verification by Several Methods With respect to the demand forecast on the container throughput, several methods have been proposed in the past literatures. Hereinafter verifications were tried applying the theoretical methods. 1) Verification by Population & GDP Container throughput of a country is generally linked to its magnitude of GDP and population. The following figure shows an attempt to explain the relationship between GDP-per-capita and container throughput per unit population using various countries data.

people Container Throughput Curve

Container Throughput(TEU/1,000people)

Prediction Curve (TEU/1,000people)

(GDP-per-capita.: USD)

TEU / 1,000 people

Figure A3-2-3 Theoretical Curve Showing Relationship between GDP Per-capita. and National

Container Throughput per 1,000 Population (OCDI 2006) The prediction curve is expressed by the equation, Y = 0.4253 X 0.5483 where, Y : Container Throughput per 1,000 Population (TEU/1,000 Persons) X : GDP Per-capita. (USD). Applying the equation to the figure of Madagascar; 392 USD/capita. (2007 IMF), the container throughput of Madagascar is calculated as, Y = 0.4253 x (392)0.5483 = 11.236 TEU/1,000 people As population of Madagascar in 2007 was 19.7 million, the estimated container throughput is, 11.236 x 1,970 = 22,134 TEU. In general, the error of this equation is large in the range of GDP-per-capita less than 10,000 USD. The actual container throughput of Toamasina port in 2007 was 112,427 TEU which shows the figure 5 times larger. The following figure shows the errors on the equation are large if we apply the other neighboring countries data to the equation.

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Madagascar

Kenya

Mauritius

Mozambique

Seychelles

Tanzania

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Figure A3-2-4 Application of Projection Curve

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2) Verification by GDP Growth Rate The method of direct forecast the container growth rate linked by GDP growth rate using the following formula has been applied in many past forecast documents. (Container Growth Rate) = E x (GDP Growth Rate) The following figure shows the plots of Madagascar and neighboring countries using the data of 2004-2007. From figure it is noticed that the plots of S. Africa, UAE, and India are distributed along the line E=2.0, which shows that the container growth rate usually double of GDP growth rate. These countries hold the larger ports of group A or group B discussed in section 3-2-1 which handle more than 2 million TEU. On the other hand, other African countries including Madagascar have very large fluctuations in data plots. The figure shows the difficulty to apply this method to the forecast for Madagascar port.

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Figure A3-2-5 GDP Growth Rate and Past Container Growth Rate

E=2.0 Line

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3) Verification by Import, Export Cargo Tonnage In general, there is a trade imbalance with import containers predominating during early years of container operations in developing countries since few of those countries are able to provide sufficient containerized export cargo to fill the available import containers. Therefore the number of empty containers being loaded in such countries are very high. The following Table shows the import/export cargo volume structure of Toamasina port. From the table it is observed, import cargo volume shares 70%, where the aforesaid trade imbalance is observed. Looking at ratio of full container, 68% is considered to be low figure, for example, compared with the figure of Durban port in S. Africa 75% in 2008. As the third verification method, import tonnage is focused because container cargo throughput is thought to be dependent on the growth of import volume considering the trade imbalance of Madagascar and the import volume should have closer relation to national consumption as well as GDP caused by economic activities in the country.

Table A3-2-2 Import/Export Cargo Volume Structure of Toamasina Port Total Full Empty Total Full All

(ton) (%) (ton) (%) (ton) (ton) （TEU) （TEU) （TEU) (%) (%) (ton) (ton)① ② ③ ④ ⑤ ⑥ ⑦ ⑧ ⑨ ⑩ ⑪ ⑫ ⑬

2003 －－－－－ 897,579 62,172 32,675 94,847 － 66% 14.4 9.52004 1,011,564 71% 406,184 29% 1,417,748 950,000 68,741 33,565 102,306 67% 67% 13.8 9.32005 926,089 74% 330,458 26% 1,256,547 777,357 78,948 37,667 116,615 62% 68% 9.8 6.72006 863,750 74% 305,564 26% 1,169,314 616,799 63,835 28,694 92,529 53% 69% 9.7 6.72007 1,105,396 66% 558,163 34% 1,663,559 1,245,588 77,162 35,263 112,425 75% 69% 16.1 11.1

Average 71% 29% 64% 68% 12.8 8.6note) 1) Import/export cargo volume in tonnage of ocean-going vessel excludes cargo volume of coastal & short coastal vessels. 2) Ratio container shows the figures calculated : ⑩ = ⑥ ÷ ⑤3) Ratio full container shows figures calculated : ⑪ = ⑦ ÷⑨Source : Rapport d' Activite Portuair 2004~2007 APMF

Tonnage per TEU

Year

Cargo Volume of Ocean-going Vessel Container　Cargo　Volume Ratio FullContainer

RatioContainerImport Export

The Figure A3-2-6 shows the movement of import/export figures of Toamasina which include general cargo and container cargo, excluding liquid cargo. The growth curve fitting shows that 7-8% growth seem to be suitable to forecast import cargo tonnage. Figure A3-2-7 shows the extended curve to 2020. Import cargo volume in 2020 were estimated as,

Growth Rate 7% : Import cargo 2,567,000 ton for 2020 Growth Rate 8%: Import cargo 3,239,000 ton for 2020.

Assuming the ratio of container ver. total cargo 68% will remain the same till 2020, container import tonnage are estimated,

Growth Rate 7% : Import container cargo 1,746,000 ton for 2020 Growth Rate 8% : Import container cargo 2,203,000 ton for 2020.

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y = 60,941.52x - 120,820,192.33

y = 53606x - 1E+08

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6%/year growth curve




Figure A3-2-6 Import/Export Cargo Volume of Toamasina Port (source : APMF)

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6%/year growth curve (total)

5%/year growth curve(total)

7%/year growth curve(Import)

8%/year growth curve(Import)

Figure A3-2-7 Forecast of Import Cargo Volume of Toamasina Port (source : APMF)

Further assuming total container throughput is double of import volume as export containers are less than import, and assuming average unit tonnage per TEU is 12.8 ton, total container throughput is estimated as follows.

Growth Rate 7% : Container Throughput 273,000 TEU for 2020 Growth Rate 8% : Container Throughput 344,000 TEU for 2020

Although many assumptions are contained in this figure, the figure of growth rate 8% shows the similar range to the “conservative scenario” proposed in Table A3-2-1

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A3-3 Cargo Forecast of Particular Commodities 1) Import Cargo Forecast Fore the purpose to estimate present and future forecast import/export volume, several statistics were referred. In general, the different statistics shows different figures, thus it looks difficult to judge a unique prediction. Hereinafter, all available statistical data are plotted in one graph, and tendency of cargo volume is discussed. a) Rice The Figure A3-3-1 shows the statistical data plot of rice import volume of Toamasina port. JETRO study referred mainly custom statistics, SMMS referred their own records, APMF data was made based on the report by SPAT. Rice is the biggest import commodity of Toamasina port. It is noted that rice consumption per person of Madagascar is approximate 130 kg (nearly double of Japan), 10% of them owes to import rice. The most of import rice for Madagascar is through Toamasina, as the national custom statistics indicates the similar figures of JETRO study figures. Major import embarkation countries are, Pakistan (64%), India (28%), and USA (3%) based on 2007 custom data.

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JETRO StudySMMCAPMFCurve Fitting Linear (JETRO Study)Curve Fitting Linear (SMMC)

Figure A3-3-1 Rice Import Throughput of Toamasina Port

Although the annual figures have wide fluctuation, the import volume is roughly 150,000 tons every year. One reasons of this fluctuation is thought to be that the national production volume of rice is not stable and required import varies every year. On the other hand, the Government holds a policy to increase crops of rice as it is the staple food of Madagascar. In view of form of cargo, the most of import are in the form of dry cargo (rice bags) presently. However the cargo is able to be containerized in general. If the containerization will be progressed in future, general cargo volume will be decreased and shifted to the container cargo.

A-66

b) Cement In Toamasina port, Holcim (Madagascar) S.A. has the bagging plant and storage warehouse in front of quay wall of More C1. The most of cement are imported in the form of dry bulk where the quay wall is facilitated for air-pumping and pipeline unloading. The Figure A3-3-2 shows the statistical data plot of cement import volume of Toamasina port. Major import embarkation countries are, Indonesia (62%), China (24%), and Pakistan (7%) based on 2007 custom data. Though data are fluctuated, the tendency of import volume is the gradual increase. Reasonable curve fitting taking JETRO Study data shows the annual increase of 14,000 tons.

y = 14,112 x - 28,121,832

0

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150,000

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JETRO Study

SMMC

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Holcim

Curve Fitting Linear (JETRO Study)

Figure A3-3-2 Cement Import Throughput of Toamasina Port

Cement consumption generally depends on the construction market growth. As recent GDP growth is approximate 7%, future demand of cement import will be increased according to the national economy growth. It is pointed out that the cement is also one of the commodities which can be containerized similar to rice import. However Holcim (Madagascar) S.A. is operating the bagging plant in approximate 50% of full capacity now, which allows more import in the form of dry cargo. It is foreseen that the increase of cement dry cargo will be continued. c) Wheat In Toamasina port, MANA Madagascar has the factory for processing wheat and producing flour. MANA is founded in 2007 merging the similar factory in the same port. Wheat is imported in the form of dry cargo, which is unloaded from the bulk carrier vessel by bucket and hopper then moved to the factory storehouse using belt conveyor mounted in front of quay wall Mall C1. The all produced flour is sold to domestic market, in which 60% for Antananarivo, 20% for Toamasina city, and 15~20 % is transported to other region by feeder cargo vessels. The Figure A3-3-3 shows the statistical data plot of wheat import volume of Toamasina port. All data scattered in wide fluctuation, thus future forecast using these data is difficult. In accordance to the interview to management of MANA, production in 2008 was 100,000 tons and national consumption is increasing.

A-67

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Figure A3-3-3 Wheat Import Throughput of Toamasina Port

As a new business, MANA is expanding its factory and plans to export flour to oversea. The planned volume of export is 50,000 tons per year and it will be commenced in 2009. When the plan launched successfully, throughput of wheat and flour in Toamasine will be predicted approximately 200,000 tons. 2) Export Cargo Forecast a) Litchi Lichi is one of the main export items in Toamasina port. The harvest season is from November till Dicember. During the season, the lichi is exported by leefer cargo ship or by packed in reefer containers. According to the information provided by MICTSL, approximately 50% is loaded to reefer ship and the rests are for reefer container. The Figure A3-3-4 shows the statistical data plot of lichi export volume of Toamasina port. Export volume in 2007 was roughly 20,000tons. All data scattered in wide fluctuation. The reason of the fluctuation might be the unevenness of crop each year. However it is observed in the figures that the export volumes have a tendency to increase.

A-68

y = 820 x - 1,630,042

y = 1,164 x - 2,314,670

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JETRO StudySMMCAPMFCurve Fitting Linier (SMMC)Curve Fitting Linear (JETRO Study)

Figure A3-3-4 Lichi Export Throughput of Toamasina Port

b) Chromium Ore Chromium ore is also one of the main export items in Toamasina port. There is a stock area of the ore in the port owned land, and these stockpile is transported to quaywall for every vessel arrrival. Usually the ore is loaded to the bulk cargo ship, but sometimes exported with packed in the container upon order received. Recent annual figures of export shows apploximately 100,000tons. The data scattered in wide fluctuation, thus future forecast using these data is difficult.

0

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Figure A3-3-5 Chromium Export Throughput of Toamasina Port

A- 69

Appendix for Chapter 4 Port Planning

A- 71

A4-1 Cost Comparison of Alternative Layouts (Plan-1) An original plan to meet the 2020 demand is indicated in Fig A4-1. The end of the quay will be utilized for berthing (-14x185), although the length is not sufficient to accommodate ships of 50,000 DWT. The water area behind the breakwater will be reclaimed and utilized for the marshalling and the stacking of containers. The aim of the plan is to realize smooth traffic and quick handling at the quay side. However, to utilize the area, overtopping waves need to be prevented. The crown height of the breakwater should be sufficient and stable enough to handle the waves generated in a cyclone. Accordingly, the crown height of the breakwater should become +11.0m above datum level, and the wave dissipating blocks (50t-Dolos) will be used at the front slope of the break water. The stock yard for containers will be located on the plane of Hastie reef, in addition to the quay site. The planned area is shallow and calm under normal sea conditions. However, during a cyclone, a huge wave mass will run on the surface of the reef flat and collide with the shore protection at great speed. It may destroy the shore structure and wash it away. To protect the shore and prevent overtopping of water, the blocks (2t-Tetra Pod) will be placed on the surface of the shore protection. The pavement of the container yard is made of reinforced concrete to support the heavy lifts with full container loads. (Plan-2) Plan-2 is indicated in Fig A4-2. To reduce the cost, the quay at the end of the C4 is withdrawn. Bulk and other goods will be handled at C1, C2. The belt conveyer for the chips will be installed at the C1-C2 quay. The basin in front of the C1-C2 berth will be deepened. The reclamation area on the Hastie reef is reduced to half of that of the original plan. (Plan-3) Plan-3 is indicated in Fig A4-3. To decrease the cost, the idea of reclaiming the area behind the breakwater is abandoned. This makes it possible to lower the crown height of the breakwater. The idea of improving the existing breakwater is also abandoned. The structure for the shore protection on the Hastie reef is changed to a temporary one, because it is located in shallow water and easy to repair. The pavement is changed to the asphaltic concrete from reinforced concrete. However the filling material will be the stones of non-sorted grade and will have sufficient bearing capacity. (Plan-4) Plan-4 is indicated in Fig A4-4. To reduce the cost for the breakwater, the alignment of the breakwater is bent so that the location of the breakwater may pass the -15m depth. Owing to the odd shape of the container yard, the quay alignment is also changed so that the back yard will have sufficient space. However, the cost for the breakwater became higher than that of Plan-3, because the back yard and the break water touched together. The crown height of the breakwater should be high enough to prevent the over topping. The costs for each alternative are indicated in Table A4-1.

A- 72

Table A4-1 Cost for the Alternatives Plan Cost: EURO

million Remarks

Plan-1 333 +Annex berth, Filling behind, 26ha reclamation

Plan-2 233 Without Annex berth, Filling Behind, 10ha reclamation

Plan-3 196 Without Filling behind, 10ha reclamation Plan-4 219 Bent Breakwater

Fig A4-1 Plan-1

A- 73

Gig A4-2 Plan-2

A- 74

Fig A4-3 Plan-3

A- 75

Fig A4-4 Plan-4

A-77

A4-2 Existing Situation (Photos) 1. General views

General View of Toamasina Port

North View

East View

Southwest View

North View

East View

Southwest View

Toamasina Port View

North View

East View

Southwest View

North View

East View

Southwest View

Toamasina Port View

A-78

Wha

rves

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in th

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rt a

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d, st

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ies

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way

s in

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are

a

A-82

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A-83

A4-3 Transport Network of Madagascar The existing transport Network of Madagascar is exhibited in Fig. 1. In the Fig. major airports, International and domestic ports, highways and railways are drawn. For the highways, the conditions are also shown.

Source: National Transport Plan, 2004, Edited by Study Team

Fig. 1 Transport Network of Madagascar

A-84

(1) Airports There are 12 major airports. The international airport in Antananarivo is plying a role of the hub to provide regular service to major cities over the country. (2) Railway The railway between Antananarivo and Toamasina has been privatized, and Madarail is now operating freight trains between Antananarivo and Toamasina. Passengers trains are also operated between Toamasina and Andasibe, which is the halfway from the east coast to Antananarivo. Madarail has branch line from Andasibe to Ambatondrazaka. There is another railway line, which is state owned and providing service between Fianarantso and Manakara. The freight trains service of Madarail are transporting containers and other general cargoes between Toamasina and Antananarivo. The travel time is about 24 hours. A train is composed of 20 wagons that carry container or general cargoes, especially, bagged cargoes. The freight service is once a day but Madarail has a plan to increase the service to three trains per day. At Antananarivo, Madarail has container depot that is operated by Madarail itself. Photo 1 shows the container freight train at the marshaling site near Toamasina Port.

Source: Study Team

Photo 1 Container Freight Train at the Marshaling Yard of Madarail (3) Highway As shown in Fig. 1.2.1, the road conditions are not good enough. Except the highway between Antantarivo and Toamashina, which is the busiest arterial highway, all the routs want improvement. Through an interview to an engineer of the Madagascar Highway Authority, it was found that the highways from Antatnanarivo to the northwest region covering Antsiranana, Vohemar, Mahajanaga, to the southwest region, Toliara and to the east region covering Toamasina and Manajary are good enough, while the highways going to Tolasgnaro (Fort Dauphin and the west, Morondava, Maintirano are bad and need improvement. (4) Ports Toamasina, Vohamar, Antsiranana, Nosy Be, Mahajanaga, Toliara and Tolagnaro (Fort Dauphine) Ports are called on by international ships, while other ports are serving for domestic shipping. Of all the ports, Toamasina Port, which, of the national total volumes, currently handles about 80 % of cargoes, 75% of container cargoes, 50 % of other dry cargoes and 85% of petroleum, is playing a role of the distribution hub of the maritime transport in the country. domestic hub and considerable volumes of cargoed are transported to and from Toamashina.

A-85

Table 1 Features of ports in Madagascar

PORTS Total Length (m) Max. Depth (m)ANTALAHA 68 2.8ANTSIRANANA 418 8.5ANTSOHIHY 185 -MAHAJANGA 640 4.5MAINTIRANO 66 5.0MANAKARA 214 2.5MANANJARY 157 1.5MAROANTSETRA - -MOROMBE - -MORONDAVA 100 1.5NOSY BE 374 5.0PORT ST LOUIS 120 4.0TAOLANARO 145 2.5TOAMASINA 1020 12.0TOLIARA 225 8.0VOHEMAR 100 8.0

Source: National Transport Plan, 2004

Source: National Transport Plan, 2004 Fig. 2 Principal domestic shipping routes

Principal Domestic Shipping RoutesPrincipal Domestic Shipping Routes

Toamasin

Antsiranan

Mahajang

Toliar

Tolagnar

A-86

A4-4 Port Development Policy & Plan (1) The National Transport Plan 2004 – 2020 A study for the “National Transport Plan 2004-2020” was completed in 2004. The study covered land and maritime transportation, and, on the basis of the existing traffic analyses and the demand forecast, identified priority routes and ports for the development. The plan proposed the development of a new deep sea port. The potential for the development of the following four ports were studied: • Bay of Narinda ; The bay is located between Mahajanga and Antsiranana. The geography of the bay provides tranquil waterwrea without breakwater. • Region of Maintirano and Region of Morondava ;

These sites are located on the west coast between Mahajanaga and Toliara where no large ports exist. The sites are close to Antananarivo, Capital of Madagascar. A deep sea port, when it is completed in this region, would serve as the west gateway port of the country.

• Region of Manakara: The site is located on the east coast of Madagascar and at the intermediate point between Toamasina and Tolagonaro.Ports. The highway connecting to Antananarivo was already good.

The costs of the construction of these four ports were estimated. On the basis of the population of the hinterland and the construction cost per millions of the cargoes, the study concluded that Narinda Bay had the heist potential for the development (see Table 1.2.2..

Table 1.2.2 Cost of new deep sea ports in Madagascar (The National Transport Plan 2004-2020)

PLAN NATIONAL DE TRANSPORT 2004-2020COÛTS DE CONSTRUCTION DES NOUVEAUX PORTS

Potential trafficdemand

(Million hab) in 2020 (million USD)(1000 t)

PART DE LA Cost neededPopulation Population Ttotal cost per million tons

of traffic Dessservie (1) Nationale (2) 1. New Port in the Narinda Bay 4.8 18% 2,851 145 512. New Port in the Region ofMAINTIRANO

1.1 4% 675 107 159

3. New Port in the Region ofNARINDAMORONDAVA

4.1 16% 2,446 193 79

4. New Port in the Region ofMANAKARA

7.2 27% 4,238 307 72

(1) : Population de la zone de compétitivité du port.(2) : Population nationale estimée à 26,3 millions d'habitants en 2020.

Costs of construction of newports

Population Desservie en 2020

Since the administration of the Republic of Madagascar has been changed and the of the new administration has not yet published, it is not sure whether the National Transport Plan 2004 – 2020 is remain as the policy guideline for the development of Highways and Port.. In the light of the current political situation of Madagascar, it is unlikely that the new administration will take the development of a deep sea port as one of the priority projects.

A-87

A4-5 Trucks in Toamasina City In accordance with the growth of the cargo volumes of Toamasina Port, the traffic volume of cargo trucks have been increasing. In addition to the traffic volumes along the main highways and boulevard, heavy trucks and full sided trailers are running on the narrow allies within the city area to deliver the good to private warehouses, which are located even within residential areas. In the areas close to the port, containers are handled on the streets and many trailers are parking everywhere of the city. The passage of heavy truck has damaged all the roads in Toamasina City. Photos 1 through 20 show the how deep the heavy trucks are intruding the city area.

Source: Study Team

Photo 1 Container depots that are occupying roads.

Maersk Depot

A private depot

SDV Depot

A-88

Source: Study Team Photo 2 Truck parking without any facilities, which has made the road impassable except trucks

Source: Study Team Photo 3 Trucks and trailers to and from warehouses inside residential areas

Source: Study Team

Photo 4 Parking trucks everywhere of the City

A-89

Source: Study Team Photo 5 A full trailer is entering into an ally where those vehicles no heavier than 3.5 ton are allowed to pass

Source: Study Team Photo 6 Damaged ally due to the traffic of heavy trucks and a bank protecting the house from the intrusion of water It is expected that the cargo volumes at Toamasina Port will be doubles and tripled within the coming decades. Unless some actions are taken, the City of Toamasina is overwhelmed by heavy trucks. Apart from the trucks, the development of railway marshaling yard out side of the port is generating another problem. The local community located other side of the railway is divided by the railway. The people living in the community are hard to cross the railway. So far the frequency of railway service has been not so much. However, once the Ambatovy is fully operational, trains will be passing this area every 15 minutes and the marshaling yard become very busy handling containers, petroleum products and general cargoes. The people of the community have to walk for long way to cross the railway. Photo 1.11.4-7 shows the present situation of the railway marshaling yard of Madarail and the people passing over a train there.

Bank

A-90

Source: Study Team Photo 7 Situation at Madarail Marshaling yard and people crossing a train.

RailwayRailway

A-91

Appendix for Chapter 6 Engineering Aspects

A-93

A6-1 Necessary Extension of Breakwater (Appendix for Section 6-1-2-1 (2))

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0.6

0.8

200

0m

波向

N110.9°

E(110)

入射

波高

1.0

周期

10s

方向集中度

(Smax)

25

N 110.9

50

52

53

52

51

49

47

45

42

39

36

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52

50

48

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42

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60

63

64

64

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40

36

32

29

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56

63

67

68

66

61

55

49

43

38

34

29

26

41

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59

67

71

71

68

61

54

48

41

35

31

27

25

41

52

63

71

76

76

70

61

53

44

37

32

28

25

22

31

41

53

66

76

82

80

70

59

48

40

33

28

25

22

20

29

39

54

70

84

90

84

69

54

43

35

29

25

21

19

18

28

37

58

76

91

96

85

63

47

36

29

24

21

18

17

16

27

37

61

83

96

104

84

55

37

28

23

20

19

17

16

14

27

36

72

97

101

109

77

38

25

19

17

17

17

35

98

107

104

15

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31

17

24

35

Wav

e H

eigh

t rat

io in

Por

t (W

ave

dire

ctio

n: N

110.

9°&

N11

5.5°

(Sec

tion

6-1-

2-1

(2))

A-95

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.10.2

0.3

0.3

0.40.4

0.5

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0.8

200

0m

波向

N123.4°

E(140)

入射

波高

1.0

周期

10s

方向

集中度

(Smax)

25

N 123.4

40

43

45

47

48

47

47

46

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42

40

42

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47

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49

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48

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38

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56

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53

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33

40

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59

59

57

54

50

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42

38

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41

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56

60

63

61

58

53

49

44

40

36

33

26

34

44

53

60

65

66

63

58

53

47

42

37

33

30

26

35

46

57

65

70

70

65

58

51

44

39

34

31

27

22

27

36

49

61

72

76

73

65

55

47

40

35

31

27

24

23

27

38

53

68

81

83

75

62

51

42

36

31

26

24

22

22

28

43

60

75

89

88

72

55

44

35

30

26

22

21

19

23

28

48

68

83

99

91

64

45

34

28

24

22

20

18

16

24

29

59

86

95

106

86

45

29

23

20

20

20

32

90

103

105

10

10

9

9

9

9

10

10

11

12

12

13

15

16

17

19

21

23

25

27

29

10

11

10

10

9

9

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10

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23

26

29

32

10

10

10

10

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10

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14

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17

18

21

23

26

30

10

10

10

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14

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18

20

23

27

31

10

10

10

10

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11

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23

29

9

10

10

11

12

13

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24

10

10

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12

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19

26

10

11

13

16

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11

15

23

0.1

0.2

0.2

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0.5

0.6

0.8

200

0m

波向

N119.8°

E(130)

入射

波高

1.0

周期

10s

方向集中度

(Smax)

25

N 119.8

43

46

48

49

49

49

48

46

44

42

39

45

48

50

51

50

50

49

46

43

41

39

43

47

50

52

53

53

51

49

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44

41

38

45

50

53

55

56

54

52

50

46

43

40

37

42

48

53

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57

57

55

53

50

45

42

38

36

37

44

51

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59

61

60

58

54

49

44

41

37

33

38

46

53

60

63

65

62

57

53

48

43

39

34

31

30

38

48

57

64

67

67

63

58

52

46

40

35

31

29

30

40

51

61

69

73

71

65

57

50

42

37

33

29

26

24

30

41

54

66

75

78

73

64

54

45

38

33

29

26

23

24

29

42

58

73

84

85

74

60

49

40

34

29

25

22

21

23

30

47

64

80

92

88

70

53

42

34

28

25

21

20

18

24

30

52

73

86

101

90

62

43

33

26

23

21

19

18

16

25

31

63

89

97

107

84

43

28

22

19

19

19

32

92

105

105

11

11

10

10

10

11

11

12

12

13

14

15

17

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

11

12

11

11

11

11

11

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12

13

14

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26

29

31

34

11

12

11

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12

13

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24

26

30

33

11

12

11

11

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17

19

21

24

27

31

35

11

12

11

11

12

13

14

16

18

20

23

27

33

11

12

12

12

13

15

17

20

23

27

11

12

13

14

16

19

22

31

11

13

15

18

23

13

17

26

Wav

e H

eigh

t rat

io in

Por

t (W

ave

dire

ctio

n: N

119.

8°&

N12

3.4°

(Sec

tion

6-1-

2-1

(2))

A-97

A6-2 Input Data and Calculation Results of Analysis of Ship Waiting Time A6-2-1 Ship Waiting Time of 2007 Table A6-2-1 shows the summary of ship arrival records of Toamasina in 2007. In the Table, ship sizes and berthing hours are indicated as the average figures of 2007.

Table A6-2-1 Summary of 2007 Ship Arrival in Toamasina Port Shiptype Bulk/General (1)

Bulk/General (2)

Bulk/General (3) Container

Pass./Ferry Car Carrier Tanker Others

LOA(m) 60 130 150 160 110 200 130 45B(m) 12 19 23 25 18 33 23 8Draft(m) 3.5 8 10 10 6.2 10 9 2.5DWT 1,300 10,000 20,000 20,000 3,500 20,000 20,000 -Average Berthing Hrs 290.0 160.0 80.0 20.0 18.0 10.0 40.0 24.0

TotalMOLE A WEST(AW) 49 49MOLE A EAST(AE) 40 40MOLE B WEST(BW) 35 35MOLE B POINT(BP) 54 54MOLE C1(C1) 38 38MOLE C2 (C2) 113 12 11 136MOLE C3 (C3) 114 12 11 137Other Small Craft Quays 832 832

89 35 38 227 24 22 54 832 1,321

Ship

Typ

es &

Siz

esQ

uayw

alls

Total Shipcalls (source: SPAT and OCDI ships database)

In accordance with the port regulation of Toamasina, the port operation runs 24 hours except that fuel tankers can enter into or depart from the port only in daytime. Speed limit in channel and basin is 5 knots. 1,500 MT or more sized vessels require port pilot on board to sail inside the port. From these conditions, it is clear that smaller crafts do not influence to the ship waiting hours because they can sail at any time. In the model, ships average speed is assumed at 3 knots considering the speed limit and reducing speed during their berthing and de-berthing. Input assumptions and the result of reproduction 2007 ship arrival records by the model are shown below. Input Assumptions:

- Ship average speed is assumed at 3 knot. - Ship waiting point is north offshore of the port near the channel mouth. - Channel is one way pass. - Small crafts can pass the channel using shallower rout during large vessel is passing the channel. - Large vessels over 1,500 MT can pass the channel one by one. - Tankers can pass the channel during daytime only. - Bulk/general cargo vessels arrive at port in random frequency. - Container cargo vessels arrive at port in equal frequency. - Passenger ships or ferries come to port during tourism season, i.e., October – March, in equal

frequency. - Car carriers arrive at port in equal frequency. - Operation days in a year are assumed at 309 days.

A-98

Table A6-2-2 Calculation Results of Ship Waiting Time

for Reproduction of 2007 Ship Arrival Record in Toamasina Port

Max AverageBulk/General (1) 5.67 0.15Bulk/General (2) 0.03 0.00Bulk/General (3) 0.05 0.00Container 0.04 0.01Pass./Ferry 1.32 0.04Car Carrier 1.41 0.02Tanker 0.78 0.22Others 1.16 0.32

Ship Waiting Time (days)

Table A6-2-3 Calculation Results of Berth Occupancy Rate for Reproduction of 2007 Ship Arrival Record in Toamasina Port

MOLE A WEST(AW)MOLE A EAST(AE)MOLE B WEST(BW)MOLE B POINT(BP)MOLE C1(C1)MOLE C2 (C2)MOLE C3 (C3)

39.333.533.7

45.737.424.428.0

Berth Occupancy Rate (%)

From calculation result, followings are read which express present ship waiting and berth occupancy conditions very well.

- Average ship waiting time for Container Ships is calculated 0.01 days, which expresses present condition that there are few waiting for container vessels.

- Berth Occupancy rate for Mole C2 and C3 is calculated 34%, which express present condition that real occupancy is nearly 30%.

A-99

A6-2-2 Future Ship Waiting Time (1) The Case of the Project not Executed (Without Project Case) In accordance with the result of demand forecast, growth ratio of container, bulk/general cargo and liquid cargo are 10%, 3% and 2% respectively. If container traffic will be increased at 10% growth ratio, its throughput will be 426,000TEU in 2020. On the other hand, the capacity of port terminal is limited to approximately 200,000TEU due to limited space of existing container marshalling yard. In this report, it is assumed that the surplus container traffics over 200,000 TEU will be transported by smaller ships who has 500 TEU loading capacity so that shallower Mole A and B should be also used for their handling. These smaller ships are assumed to be shuttled between Toamasina and Port Louis using the service of transshipment at Port Louis. Details of these assumptions are discussed in the Chapter of Economic Analysis. Table A6-2-4 shows the input data of the case of the project not executed (Without Project Case). Input assumptions are as follows.

- Bulk / general cargo vessels will increase at 3% growth ratio as mentioned in demand forecast. - Container vessels will increase at 10% growth ratio. In 2012~2013, container throughput of the

port will reach the maximum capacity 200,000. Further containers will be carried by smaller vessels and loaded or unloaded at any available quay-walls.

- Smaller vessels will handle containers by own ship gears. Average number of container boxes handled in one ship-call is assumed 500 TEUs. Average berthing time of these vessels is assumed 60 hours, i.e., handling speed is about 8 boxes per hour.

- Passenger ships, ferries and car carriers will remain same frequency in future. The forecast of these vessels are neglected in this report but this may give conservative results for container vessels’ waiting time.

- Oil tankers will increase at 2% growth rate as mentioned in demand forecast. Tankers will use new jetty under construction as of 2009, which can accommodate larger tankers. Average ship size is assumed 30,000 DWT, thus ship-calls will reduce approximately 30%.

- Bulk carriers for on-going new projects, i.e., Ambatovy Project and Oji Paper Project are considered as additional ship-calls.

- Other small crafts will remain the same frequency, which has little influence to ship waiting time of container vessels.

- Operation days in a year are assumed at 309 days.

Table A6-2-4 Forecast of Ship Arrivals in 2020 for Without Project Case Shiptype

Bulk/General (1)

Bulk/General (2)

Bulk/General (3) Container

ContainerSmall

Vessels

Pass./Ferry Car Carrier Tanker

BulkAmbatovy

Bulk OjiPaper Others

LOA(m) 60 130 150 160 100 110 200 130 210 210 45B(m) 12 19 23 25 18 18 33 23 30 30 8Draft(m) 3.5 8 10 10 6 6.2 10 9 12 12 2.5DWT 1,300 10,000 20,000 20,000 5,000 3,500 20,000 20,000 48,000 50,000 -Average Berthing Hrs 290.0 160.0 80.0 20.0 60.0 18.0 10.0 40.0 71.0 120.0 24.0

TotalMOLE A WEST(AW) 44 134 178MOLE A EAST(AE) 44 134 178MOLE B WEST(BW) 43 36 10 89MOLE B WEST(New Berth) 12 24 40 76MOLE B EAST (Ambatovy) 71 71MOLE B New Oil Jetty 50 50MOLE C1(C1) 24 44 5 73MOLE C2 (C2) 200 44 12 11 267MOLE C3 (C3) 200 44 12 11 267Other Small Craft Quays 832 832

131 48 48 400 450 24 22 50 71 5 832 2,081

Ship

Typ

es &

Siz

esQ

uayw

alls

Total Shipcalls Table A6-2-5 and A6-2-6 shows the calculation result. It shows that bulk cargo will suffer 0.82~3.65 days waiting time. Container vessels will have to wait 3.38 days in average. Berth occupancy of Mole C2 and C3 is forecasted 90% for the case.

A-100


in 2020 for Without Project Case

Max AverageBulk/General (1) 17.60 2.09Bulk/General (2) 18.11 3.65Bulk/General (3) 5.50 0.82Container 7.68 3.38Container Small Vessel 14.48 1.28Pass./Ferry 5.04 2.41Car Carrier 5.51 2.63Tanker 0.07 0.01Bulk Ambatovy 0.09 0.00Bulk Oji Paper 3.67 1.18Others 1.13 0.02


Table A6-2-6 Calculation Results of Berth Occupancy Rate in 2020 for Without Project Case

MOLE A WEST(AW)MOLE A EAST(AE)MOLE B WEST(BW)MOLE B WEST(New Berth)MOLE B EAST (Ambatovy)MOLE B New Oil JettyMOLE C1(C1)MOLE C2 (C2)MOLE C3 (C3)

89.689.7

67.366.682.1

66.3

64.825.5


80.6

(2) The Case of the Project Executed – One Lane Traffic (With Project Case) Table A6-2-7 shows the input data of With Project Case. Input assumptions are as follows.

- Bulk / general cargo vessels will increase at 3% growth ratio as mentioned in demand forecast. - Container vessels will increase at 10% growth ratio. Ship sizes will be increased at maximum

4,000 TEU (60,000DWT), and average 3,000 TEU (50,000DWT). - Passenger ships, ferries and car carriers will remain same frequency in future. The forecast of

these vessels are neglected in this report but this may give conservative results for container vessels’ waiting time.

- Oil tankers will increase at 2% growth rate as mentioned in demand forecast. Tankers will use new jetty under construction as of 2009, which can accommodate larger tankers. Average ship size is assumed 30,000 DWT, thus ship-calls will reduce approximately 30%.

- Bulk carriers for on-going new projects, i.e., Ambatovy Project and Oji Paper Project are considered as additional ship-calls.

- Other small crafts will remain the same frequency, which has little influence to ship waiting time of container vessels.

- Operation days in a year are assumed at 345 days.

Table A6-2-7 Forecast of Ship Arrivals in 2020 for With Project Case

A-101

Shiptype Bulk/General (1)Bulk/

General (2)Bulk/

General (3) ContainerPass./Ferry Car Carrier Tanker

BulkAmbatovy


LOA(m) 60 130 150 290 110 200 130 210 210 45B(m) 12 19 23 32 18 33 23 30 30 8Draft(m) 3.5 8 10 13.5 6.2 10 9 12 12 2.5DWT 1,300 10,000 20,000 50,000 3,500 20,000 20,000 48,000 50,000 -Average Berthing Hrs 290.0 160.0 80.0 20.0 18.0 10.0 40.0 71.0 120.0 24.0

TotalMOLE A WEST(AW) 47 47MOLE A EAST(AE) 47 47MOLE B WEST(BW) 37 36 73MOLE B WEST(New Berth) 12 16 28MOLE B EAST (Ambatovy) 71 71MOLE B New Oil Jetty 50 50MOLE C1(C1) 16 5 21MOLE C2 (C2) 16 12 11 39MOLE C3 (C3) 150 12 11 173MOLE C4 (C4) 150 150Other Small Craft Quays 832 832

131 48 48 300 24 22 50 71 5 832 1,531

Ship

Typ

es &

Siz

esQ

uayw

alls

Total Shipcalls Table A6-2-8 and A6-2-9 shows the result of calculation. All vessels are distributed to the adequet berths and significant ship waiting is not observed. Average container vessels waiting time is estimated at 0.01 days from the result.

Table A6-2-8 Calculation Results of Ship Waiting Time in 2020 for With Project Case

Max AverageBulk/General (1) 7.78 0.49Bulk/General (2) 11.44 0.55Bulk/General (3) 4.32 0.36Container 1.03 0.01Pass./Ferry 0.95 0.21Car Carrier 1.61 0.43Tanker 0.13 0.01Bulk Ambatovy 0.17 0.00Bulk Oji Paper 2.20 0.46Others 1.04 0.01


Table A6-2-9 Calculation Results of Berth Occupancy Rate in 2020 for With Project Case

MOLE A WEST(AW)MOLE A EAST(AE)MOLE B WEST(BW)MOLE B WEST(New Berth)MOLE B EAST (Ambatovy)MOLE B New Oil JettyMOLE C1(C1)MOLE C2 (C2)MOLE C3 (C3)MOLE C4 (C4)

18.5

39.639.662.8

21.6

58.423.2

38.534.6


37.2

(3) The Case of the Project Executed – Two Lanes Traffic (With Project Case) At present, Toamasina port has 1-lane approach channel. For future, the case of 2-way traffic channel was analyzed. Table A6-2-10 shows the input data of With Project Case (2-lane channel). The same input conditions of “(2) The Case of the Project Executed – One Lane Traffic” are applied to compare the effect of the change in channel.

Table A6-2-10 Forecast of Ship Arrivals in 2020 for With Project Case (2-Lane Channel)

A-102

Shiptype Bulk/General (1)Bulk/

General (2)Bulk/

General (3) ContainerPass./Ferry Car Carrier Tanker

BulkAmbatovy


LOA(m) 60 130 150 290 110 200 130 210 210 45B(m) 12 19 23 32 18 33 23 30 30 8Draft(m) 3.5 8 10 13.5 6.2 10 9 12 12 2.5DWT 1,300 10,000 20,000 50,000 3,500 20,000 20,000 48,000 50,000 -Average Berthing Hrs 290.0 160.0 80.0 20.0 18.0 10.0 40.0 71.0 120.0 24.0

TotalMOLE A WEST(AW) 47 47MOLE A EAST(AE) 47 47MOLE B WEST(BW) 37 36 73MOLE B WEST(New Berth) 12 16 28MOLE B EAST (Ambatovy) 71 71MOLE B New Oil Jetty 50 50MOLE C1(C1) 16 5 21MOLE C2 (C2) 16 12 11 39MOLE C3 (C3) 150 12 11 173MOLE C4 (C4) 150 150Other Small Craft Quays 832 832

131 48 48 300 24 22 50 71 5 832 1,531

Ship

Typ

es &

Siz

esQ

uayw

alls

Total Shipcalls

Table A6-2-11 and A6-2-12 shows the result of the calculation. From the result, 2-lane channel will give little effect on ship waiting time because the waiting time will be mainly governed by berth availability for the case of Taomasina port. However, more than 800 small ships are running without pilotage in Toamasina, which does not reflect on the ship waiting time calculation. These traffic might cause the danger in accident for the larger vessels in channel. Therefore it is said that 2-lane channel will be effective for safe port navigations.


in 2020 for With Project Case (2-Lane Channel)

Max AverageBulk/General (1) 9.26 0.51Bulk/General (2) 11.36 0.55Bulk/General (3) 4.26 0.33Container 0.94 0.01Pass./Ferry 0.91 0.19Car Carrier 1.55 0.40Tanker 0.00 0.00Bulk Ambatovy 0.00 0.00Bulk Oji Paper 2.20 0.44Others 1.04 0.01


Table A6-2-12 Calculation Results of Berth Occupancy Rate in 2020 for With Project Case (2-Lane Channel)

MOLE A WEST(AW)MOLE A EAST(AE)MOLE B WEST(BW)MOLE B WEST(New Berth)MOLE B EAST (Ambatovy)MOLE B New Oil JettyMOLE C1(C1)MOLE C2 (C2)MOLE C3 (C3)MOLE C4 (C4) 34.6


34.6

18.5

39.639.662.9

21.7

58.423.1

38.5

APPENDICESAppendix for Chapter 2 Natural Conditions and Field SurveysAppendix for Chapter 3 Cargo Demand ForecastAppendix for Chapter 4 Port PlanningAppendix for Chapter 6 Engineering Aspects

Appendix for Chapter 2 Natural Conditions and Field Surveysthousand TEU which is four times as that...

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Transcript of Appendix for Chapter 2 Natural Conditions and Field Surveysthousand TEU which is four times as that...