APICS ForecastingDemand
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Transcript of APICS ForecastingDemand
Master Planning of Resources
Session 2
Forecasting Demand
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2-2Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
Master Planning of Resources
Session 1: The Business Planning Process
Session 2: Forecasting Demand
Session 3: Demand Management and Customer Service
Session 4: Distribution Planning
Session 5: The Sales and Operations Planning Process
Session 6: The Master Scheduling Process
Session 7: Managing the Master Scheduling Process
Session 8: Measuring Performance and Validatingthe Plan
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2-3Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
Session 2 Objectives
Explain why forecasting is important Identify and describe general methods of
forecasting Identify demand characteristics Describe considerations in using data for
forecasts Outline the process of data decomposition
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2-4Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
What Is a Forecast?
“An estimate of future demand. A forecast can be determined by mathematical means using historical data, it can be created subjectively by using estimates from informal sources, or it can represent a combination of both techniques.”
— APICS Dictionary, 9th ed.
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2-5Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
What Is a Forecast?
“Lead Time is reason for planning and forecasting. Forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning
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2-6Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
Why Forecast? To plan for the future by reducing uncertainty To anticipate and manage change To increase communication and integration of
planning teams To anticipate inventory and capacity demands and
manage lead times To project costs of operations into budgeting
processes To improve competitiveness and productivity through
decreased costs and improved delivery and responsiveness to customer needs
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2-7Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
Areas Impacted by the Forecast
Investment decisions Capital equipment decisions Inventory planning Capacity planning Operations budgets Lead-time management Scheduling Acquiring resources
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2-8Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
Forecast System Design Issues
Determine information that needs to be forecasted Assign responsibility for the forecast Set up forecast system parameters Select forecasting models and techniques Collect data Test models Record actual demand Report accuracy Determine root cause of variance Review forecasting system for improved performance
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2-9Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
General Forecasting Techniques
Qualitative—based on intuitive or judgmental evaluation Quantitative—based on computational projection of a numeric
relationship Quantitative: time series predicting the continuation of historical
pattern Explanatory understanding relation between dependent and
independent variables
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2-10Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
General Forecasting Data Sources
Intrinsic—based on historical patterns of the data itself from company data
Extrinsic—based on external patterns from information outside the company
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Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
Demand
A need for a particular product or component
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Sources of Demand
Demand can come from many sources: Consumers Customers Referrers Dealers Distributors Interplant Service parts
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2-13Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
Demand Characteristics
Internal Factors Product promotion Product substitution
External Factors Random fluctuation Seasonality Trend Economic cycle Changing customer
preferences and demands
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2-14Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
General Forecasting Steps
Problem definition Gathering information Preliminary ( Exploratory ) analysis Choosing and fitting model Using and evaluating model
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2-15Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
General Forecasting Steps
Time series : Historical data will consist of a sequence of observations over time .This is called such a sequence as time series
Assumption the past pattern repeat in future
The time scale is equally spaced
There are two types of data 1. Time related
2. Cross-sectional( Observation at same time)
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2-16Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
General Forecasting Steps
Four types of time series data pattern can be distinguished 1. Horizontal(random). 2.Seasonal. 3. Cyclic . 4. Trend
Difference between seasonal and cyclic
Measure of error MAD mean absolute deviation, MSD mean square deviation
Both MAD and S provide measure of spread
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General Forecasting Steps
Approximately 2/3 of observations must lie within one S from mean
Approximately 95 % of observations within 2 S from mean.
Plot of ACF it provides useful check for seasonality and other pattern.
Measure of accuracy and precision
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General Forecasting Steps
Accuracy ME,MAE,MSE Relative accuracy MPE,MAPE For Forecasting data to be divided into two
sets one for forecasting model and other for assessing error ( first set is called initializing and other set is called as test or holdout)
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2-19Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
Seasonality
0100
200
300
400
500600
700
800
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Sales in cases by month
Year 1Year 2
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Seasonality Calculation
Measures seasonal variation of demand
Relates the average demand in a particular period to the average demand for all periods
The Seasonal Indexperiod average demand
average demand for all periods
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2-21Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
Calculation of Seasonal IndexSales of Ice Cream
Month Year 1 Year 2 Total Calculation Index
January 10 12 22 22/409 0.05
February 10 12 22 22/409 0.05
March 10 12 22 22/409 0.05
April 50 55 105 105/409 0.26
May 150 160 310 310/409 0.76
June 400 420 820 820/409 2.00
July 600 620 1220 1220/409 2.98
August 700 730 1430 1430/409 3.50
September 350 360 710 710/409 1.74
October 100 105 205 205/409 0.50
November 10 12 22 22/409 0.05
December 10 12 22 22/409 0.05
Total 2400 2510 4910
Average 409.1667 Round to 409
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2-22Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
Economic Cycle
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19
Quarter
Sales by Quarter
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2-23Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
Pyramid Forecasting
Product/item volume(units)
Product family volume(units/dollars)
Totalbusinessvolume(dollars)
Rol
l Up
Fore
cast
Force Dow
n Adjustm
ent
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2-24Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
Technique—Pyramid Forecasting Example
ROLL-UPProduct-level forecast
X1 units—8,200
price—$20.61 Family-level forecast
Family-adjusted forecastFORCE-DOWN
X1
X2
15,00013,045
15,00013,045
× 4,845 = 5,571 units
× 8,200 = 9,429 units
X2 units—4,845 price—$10.00 —units—13,045 Family avg price—$16.67 —units—15,000
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Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
Pyramid Forecasting Using Revenue
A B C D E F
X1 X2 Totals
units price units price Qty $
1 8,200 $20.61 4,845 $10.00 13,045 $217,452
2 1.15
3 9,430 $20.61 5,572 $10.00 15,002 $250,000
4 $250.070
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Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 20012-26
Pyramid Forecasting Exercise
Historical DemandProduct A
Region 1 150Region 2 300Selling Price $4.50
Management has determined that next year’s demand will be $10,000 total.
CALCULATE the projected demand in units for products A and B in each region.
Product BRegion 1 300Region 2 450Selling Price $8.50
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Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 20012-27
Pyramid Forecasting Exercise—Solution
Based upon historical demandA = 150 + 300 = 450 × $4.50 = $2,025B = 300 + 450 = 750 × $8.50 = $6,375
Total = $8,400
A: Region 1 = 1.19 × 150 = 178.5Region 2 = 1.19 × 300 = 357.0
B: Region 1 = 1.19 × 300 = 357.0Region 2 = 1.19 × 450 = 535.5
178.5 + 357.0 = 536.5 × $4.50 = $2,414.25357.0 + 535.5 = 892.5 × $8.50 = $7,586.25
$10,000.50
= 1.19 (19% increase)$10,000
$8,400
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Quantitative Techniques
Moving average Exponential smoothing Regression analysis Adaptive smoothing Graphical methods Econometric modeling Life-cycle modeling
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Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
Moving Average Forecasting
Advantages A simple technique that is easy to calculate It can be used to filter out random variation Longer periods provide more smoothing
Limitations If a trend exists, it is hard to detect Moving averages lag trends
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Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
NEW FORECAST = ACTUAL DEMAND + (1-) OLD FORECASTNEW FORECAST = OLD FORECAST + (ACTUAL DEMAND - OLD FORECAST)
Exponential Smoothing
Provides a routine method of updating item forecasts
Alpha is a weighting factor applied to the demand element
Works well for items with fairly constant demand
Is satisfactory for short-range forecasts Lags trends
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Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 20012-31
Smoothing Factor
Referred to as Alpha ( Determines the weight of historical
data on projection Sets responsiveness to changes in
demand Range 0 1
=
2n + 1
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Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 20012-32
Smoothing Factor (cont.)
Determines how many periods of actual demand will influence forecast
1.00 = 1 period
0.50 = 3 periods
0.29 = 6 periods
0.15 = 12 periods
0.10 = 19 periods
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Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
0.1 Low weighting -most smoothing
0.9 High weighting - close to actual
Comparison of Exponential Smoothing Alpha Factors
Actual sales
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Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 20012-34
Exponential Smoothing Examples
New forecast = Old forecast + smoothing factor ( (actual sales - old forecast)
Example: old forecast = 160, actual = 200, = 0.1
new forecast = 160 + (0.1 (200 - 160))
= 160 + (0.1 40) = 164
Example: old forecast = 160, actual = 200, = 0.8
new forecast = 160 + (0.8 (200 - 160))
= 160 + (0.8 40) = 192
Adapted from: Manufacturing for Survival, B.R. Williams, Addison Wesley, 1996
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Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
Qualitative Techniques
Expert opinion Market research Focus groups Historical analogy Delphi method Panel consensus
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Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
Internal (Intrinsic) Factors
Product life-cycle management
Planned price changes
Changes in the sales force
Resource constraints Marketing and sales
promotion Advertising
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Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
External (Extrinsic) Factors
Competition New customers Plans of major
customers Government policies Regulatory concerns Economic conditions Environmental issues Weather conditions Global trends
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Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
Leading Indicators
Indicator(Causal Factor)
Housing starts
Birth rateHits on a Web siteHealth trends
Healthier lifestyle
Influences volume of
Building materialsHome furnishingsBaby productse-commerce salesMedical suppliesNutritional productsFitness products
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Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
New Product Introduction
Every new product/service is a calculated risk.
Every new product/service has the potential to be the next
Blockbuster Lifesaver Money loser Disaster Liability nightmare.
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Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 20012-40
Product Life Cycle
Introduction Growth Maturity Decline
Product Life Cycle Stages
Volume
Time
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Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
Focus Forecasting—Assumptions/Methods
Assumptions The most recent past is the best indicator of the
future One forecasting model is better than the others
Methods All forecasting models for all items forecasted will
be compared against recent sales history The model that achieves the closest fit will be
used to forecast this item this time Next time, a different model may be selected
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Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
Data Issues for Forecasting
Availability of data Consistency of data Amount of history required Forecast frequency Frequency of model reevaluation Cost and time issues Recording true demand Order date vs. ship date Product units vs. financial units Level of aggregation Customer partnering
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Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
Planning Horizon and Time Periods
Time Periods (week numbers)
Forecast Length
Short Mid Long
Weeks Months Quarters
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011 12 13 17 21 26 30 34 39 43 47 52 65 78 91 104
PlanningHorizon
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Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
Data Preparation and Collection Record sales data in same
periods as forecast data (daily, weekly, or monthly)
Monitor demand, not sales and/or shipments
Record the circumstances of exceptional demand
Record demand separately for unique customer groupings and market sectors
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Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
Dealing with Outliers
0
5
10
15
20
25
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
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50
55
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Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
Decomposition of Data Purify the data Adjust the data Take out the baseline Identify demand components
– Trend
– Seasonality
– Nonannual cycle
– Random error Measure the random error Project the series Recompose
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Master Planning of Resources, ver. 2.0 – December 2001
Session 2 Review
You should now be able to: Explain why forecasting is important Identify and describe general methods of
forecasting Identify demand characteristics Describe considerations in using data for
forecasts Outline the process of data decomposition
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