APB - Market Outlook Investment Strategy Presentation Dec 2007

49
Baring Asset Management (Asia) Limited 19th Floor, Edinburgh Tower 15 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong Tel: (852) 2841 1411 Fax: (852) 2868 4110 www.barings.com The Asia Pacific Fund, Inc. Market Outlook and Investment Strategy Franki Chung and Henry Chan December 2007

Transcript of APB - Market Outlook Investment Strategy Presentation Dec 2007

Page 1: APB - Market Outlook   Investment Strategy Presentation Dec 2007

Baring Asset Management (Asia) Limited19th Floor, Edinburgh Tower

15 Queen’s Road Central, Hong KongTel: (852) 2841 1411Fax: (852) 2868 4110

www.barings.com

The Asia Pacific Fund, Inc. Market Outlook and Investment Strategy

Franki Chung and Henry ChanDecember 2007

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Table of Contents

Page

Section 1: Performance and Portfolio Review 2 - 19

Section 2: Asian Investment Outlook 20 - 47

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Section 1:

Performance andPortfolio Review

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Performance Summary Highlights3 month period to November 30, 2007

Fund’s NAV returns: +11.5% in USD terms (+57.3% inc. dividends over 12 month period to 11/30/07)

Fund’s share price returns: +9% in USD terms (+50.3% inc. dividends over 12 month period to 11/30/07)

Fund’s ranking in Micropal survey: 3rd quartile for 3 month period and Top 15% for 12 month periods to Nov 2007

Strong long-term track record maintained

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The Asia Pacific Fund, Inc. Long-Term Performance (Cumulative NAV Returns over 1, 3, 5 and 10 year periods to November 30, 2007)

Strong long-term track record maintained

Micropal Ranking + 30/212 23/177 26/153 5/89

57.3

159.0

291.7

373.5

45.0

129.8

255.1

215.7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1 Yr to 11/30/2007 3 Yrs to11/30/2007

5 Yrs to11/30/2007

10 Yrs to11/30/2007

(% )

Portfolio *

MSCI AC F/E (Free) x J ap Gross

Fund performance are bid to bid, net of fees, gross income, US$. For risks associated with investment securities in emerging and less developed markets, please refer to the Offering Document for details. Transactions in derivatives, warrants and forward contracts and other fund derivatives

instruments may be used for the purpose of meeting the investment objective of the Fund. The Net Asset Value of the Fund may have a high volatility due to these instruments and techniques being included in its scheme property and may involve a greater degree of risk. Past performance is not an

indication of future performance.

Data source - © 2007 Morningstar, Inc. (See Important Information)

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The Asia Pacific Fund, Inc.Short-Term Performance (NAV Returns over 3 month period to November 30, 2007)

Micropal Ranking + 194/220 100/220 42/220 130/219 30/211

In line with referenced Benchmark, but slightly below Micropal Peer Average over 3 month period

-11.5

10.114.4

11.5

57.3

-9.3

11.7 11.4

45.0

10.0

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

11/30/2007 10/31/2007 9/30/2007 3 mths to11/30/2007

1 year

Portfolio *

MSCI AC F/E (Free) x Jap Gross

Fund performance are bid to bid, net of fees, gross income, US$. For risks associated with investment securities in emerging and less developed markets, please refer to the Offering Document for details. Transactions in derivatives, warrants and forward contracts and other fund derivatives

instruments may be used for the purpose of meeting the investment objective of the Fund. The Net Asset Value of the Fund may have a high volatility due to these instruments and techniques being included in its scheme property and may involve a greater degree of risk. Past performance is not an

indication of future performance.

Data source - © 2007 Morningstar, Inc. (See Important Information)

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Performance Attribution Analysis - Summary(3 month period to November 30, 2007)

Positive Contributors:

Asset Allocation

Stock Selection

Negative Contributor:

Sector Allocation

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Performance Analysis - Details Asset and Sector Allocation (3 month period to Nov 30, ’07)

Positive Asset Allocation :

Overweight China

Negative Sector Allocation :

Underweight Telecoms and Real Estate

Overweight Materials

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Performance AnalysisStock Selection – Highlights of largest positive contributors (3 month period to November 30, 2007)

Stock Event

Zijin Mining Group(listed in HK)(2.1% of NAV)

China’s leading gold producer, with some copper interests (stock price rose by 64.5%)

Hengan Intl(listed in HK) (1.9% of NAV)

China’s leading provider of personal hygiene tissue-based products (inc. sanitary napkins and baby diapers) (stock price rose by 42.4%)

Inco Intl Nickel Indo (listed in Indonesia) (0.8% of NAV)

Indonesia’s largest listed nickel producer (61% owned by CVRD Inco) (stock price rose by 91.8%)

HDFC(listed in India)(1.3% of NAV)

India’s leading provider of housing finance; company is extremely well-managed, with sustainable growth in sales and profits (stock price rose by 45.4%)

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Price Momentum Factor peaked in October, after a 12 month strong out-performance

Market Index

Cumulative Factor Returns, last 18 months

(as at November 30, 2007)

Asia Pacific Fund VaR Factor Exposures, last 18 months

(as at November 30, 2007)

Source: Baring Asset Management

We continued to reduce the Fund’s exposure to stocks with high price momentum

Value Growth Size Momentum Value Growth Size Momentum

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

May 2006

Aug 2006

Nov 2006

Feb 2007

May 2007

Aug 2007

Nov 2007

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

May 2006

Aug 2006

Nov 2006

Feb 2007

May 2007

Aug 2007

Nov 2007

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Local Currency exchange rate (US$/Local rate)(3 month period to November 30, 2007)

08/31/2007 11/30/2007 Change %*

North AsiaNew Taiwan Dollar 33.00 32.26 +2.3Chinese Renminbi 7.55 7.40 +2.0South Korean Won 938 921 +1.9Hong Kong Dollar 7.80 7.79 +0.1

ASEANPhilippine Peso 46.54 42.78 +8.8Singaporean Dollar 1.52 1.45 +5.3Malaysian Ringgit 3.50 3.36 +4.1Thai Baht 34.31 33.85 +1.4Indonesian Rupiah 9,390 9,370 +0.2

Indian Rupee 40.88 39.63 +3.2

*: + denotes an appreciation of the local currency vs the USD (and vice-versa)Source: Factset

Strong Asian currencies’ performance vs the USD

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Asian Stock Markets: Country Performance(3 month period to November 30, 2007)

Gross return in USDCountry - Index (%)

North AsiaMSCI Hong Kong Free +23.3MSCI China Free +20.9MSCI Korea Free +4.1MSCI Taiwan Free -0.8ASEANMSCI Indonesia Free +31.0MSCI Malaysia Free +14.4MSCI Philippines Free +12.1MSCI Thailand Free +9.1MSCI Singapore Free +7.9

MSCI India Free +33.9

MSCI AC Far East Free Ex Japan Gross +11.4Source: Factset

‘Growth’ markets of India, Indonesia and HK-China led, while ‘Technology-dominated’ markets of Korea/Taiwan lagged

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Asian Stock Markets: Sectoral Performance (3 month period to November 30, 2007)

Source: Factset

Gross return in USD(%)

Energy and Telecoms led, while Technology and Health Care lagged

MSCI Energy +38.6MSCI Telecommunication Services +23.1MSCI Real Estate +21.9MSCI Consumer Staples +14.7MSCI Financials +12.9MSCI Industrials +11.3MSCI Consumer Discretionary +7.4MSCI Utilities +5.3MSCI Materials +4.5MSCI Health Care +0.3MSCI Information Technology -0.6

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The Asia Pacific Fund, Inc.Country Allocation (as at November 30, 2007)

08/31/2007 11/30/2007 SignificantCountry (%) (%) Change *

North Asia 80.6 78.4 Hong Kong/China 44.0 43.0 South Korea 20.5 20.9Taiwan 16.1 14.5

ASEAN 16.0 16.8 Singapore 11.8 11.9Indonesia 2.1 3.4 Malaysia 1.8 0.6 Philippines 0.3 0.4Thailand 0.0 0.7

India 1.2 1.5

Cash 2.2 3.3

Reduced China and Malaysia in order to fund other markets and Cash

* Only 1% change or more is highlighted by arrow moves

Source: Factset

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The Asia Pacific Fund, Inc.Country Allocation vs Asian universe including India (as at November 30, 2007)

Source: Factset

Asia Pacific MSCI All CountryFund Asia x-Japan Difference

Country (%) (%)

North Asia 78.4 73.1 5.2Hong Kong/China 43.0 36.8 6.1South Korea 20.9 21.3 -0.4Taiwan 14.5 15.0 -0.5

ASEAN 16.8 15.3 1.5Singapore 11.9 6.6 5.3Indonesia 3.4 2.5 0.8Philippines 0.4 0.8 -0.4Thailand 0.7 2.0 -1.3Malaysia 0.6 3.5 -3.0

India 1.5 11.2 -9.7

Pakistan 0.0 0.3 -0.3

Cash 3.3 0.0 3.3

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The Asia Pacific Fund, Inc.Sector Allocation (as at November 30, 2007)

Industrials, Technology and Cons. Disc. reduced; Financials, Cons. Staples and Telecoms raised

08/31/2007 11/30/2007 SignificantSector (%) (%) Change *

Financials 23.0 25.0 Information Technology 19.3 16.0 Industrials 18.2 15.7 Materials 12.3 13.0Consumer Discretionary 8.4 6.6 Energy 6.2 8.4 Consumer Staples 3.4 4.9 Telecom Services 3.0 5.2 Health Care 0.0 0.0Utilities 0.5 0.0Chinese ‘A-share’ ETF 3.4 1.8 Cash 2.2 3.3

* Only 1% change or more is highlighted by arrow movesSource: Factset

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Highlights of Portfolio Activity(3 month period to November 30, 2007)

HK/China Took profits in ‘Cyclical Growth’:

Consumer (Lifestyle Intl), Materials (Zijin Mining, Alum Corp of China), Industrials (Zhuzhou Times, Nine Dragons, Guangshen Railways) and A-share ETF

Added to ‘Defensive Growth’ (China Mobile, ICBC Bank, Henderson Land & Devpt)

Taiwan Added to Undervalued Property plays/ Materials (Asia Cement)

Switched Technology stocks (sold Siliconware Precision and Firich Enterprise, bought Advanced Semicon and Asustek)

(Cont.)

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Highlights of Portfolio Activity(3 month period to November 30, 2007)

ASEAN Reduced Malaysia

Added to Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand

Korea Added to ‘Special Situations’ (Samsung

Corp, Korea Invt, KT&G) and Materials (Posco)

Reduced exposure to YTD winners (Samsung Heavy) or under-performing stocks (Hynix Semi, Woori Investment)

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Portfolio Characteristics(as at November 30, 2007)

Asia Pacific Fund

P/E using FY1 Est (X) 26.5

P/E using FY2 Est (X) 20.9

Dividend Yield (%) 1.5

EPS FY1/FY0 growth (%) +50.3

EPS FY2/FY1 growth (%) +26.3

Hist 3 Yr EPS Growth (%) +43.6

Hist 3 Yr Sales Growth (%) +31.2

Growth and quality bias maintained

Source : FactSet

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The Asia Pacific Fund, Inc.Premium/Discount Graph

Source: Bloomberg (12/2007)

‘Range bound’ trend, with discount trading between 7.5% to 12.5%

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Section 2:

Global and Asian Investment Outlook

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Asia’s Long-Term Outlook:We retain our positive stance

Sustainable growth, boosted by rising domestic demand

Improving corporate returns and healthy balance sheets

Undervalued currencies, fairly-valued equity markets

Secular re-rating of Asian assets expected to continue

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Barings’ Global Economic forecasts for 2008

OECD G7 economies expected to grow at a slower rate, caused by weaker US consumption and much reduced new bank lending

But prospects for US recession still unlikely (less than 40% probability)

US Federal Reserve expected to continue to ease, but extent and speed dependent on inflation trend

Asian economies will likely feel some negative impact through weaker exports, but are expected to continue to grow solidly

Net, net, a more challenging global economic backdrop

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Barings’ Asian Economic forecasts for 2008

Continuing growth in domestic demand expected to remain the key driver of growth in Asia

China and India expected to continue to grow solidly, helping to boost intra-regional trade

Other Asian economies likely to grow at trend rate, some helped by favourable recent electoral outcomes

Asian central banks’ policy direction expected to remain mixed (ie, HK to cut, China to raise)

Asian currencies likely to continue to strengthen vs the USD

Key risks include rising inflation and tighter-than-expected monetary policy

Net, net, still a favourable economic backdropfor equity investors in the region

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Current Concerns in Equity Markets

Global and regional inflation rates to continue to rise, forcing central banks to tighten more aggressively (or to cut rates by less) than currently expected

Fear of a US and global recession developing, causing risk aversion to reign in the short-term

Current high earnings expectations to cause disappointment

We are monitoring the above risks closely

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Global Risk Aversion Dominates:Another buying opportunity in Asian equities ?

Source: Credit Suisse (12/2007)

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07

Euphoria

Panic

It has paid to buy a strong growth story (such as Asia) in times of rising global risk aversion

Risk index

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Significant Outflows in Aug/Nov ‘07 in EM Asia:Precursor to US recession …. or .… high risk aversion ?

Source: Morgan Stanley (12/2007)

(US$bn)

Recent ‘panic selling’ probably caused by rising global risk aversion

(18.3)

2.6

(15.2)

(20)

(18)

(16)

(14)

(12)

(10)

(8)

(6)

(4)

(2)

-

2

4

6

8

10Ja

n-0

3

Jul-

03

Jan

-04

Jul-

04

Jan

-05

Jul-

05

Jan

-06

Jul-

06

Jan

-07

Jul-

07

Monthly Net Foreign Buying in EM Asia

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Asia vs OECD World: Some signs of decoupling …..

Source: Morgan Stanley (12/2007)

(6)

(4)

(2)

0

2

4

6

8

Jan-86 Jan-89 Jan-92 Jan-95 Jan-98 Jan-01 Jan-04 Jan-07

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

OECD G7 LEI (Left)

Asia LEI (Right)

% % YoY

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Jan-88

Jan-90

Jan-92

Jan-94

Jan-96

Jan-98

Jan-00

Jan-02

Jan-04

Jan-06

Jan-08

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%Analyst Revision - MSCI A/P, % (Left)

OECD LEI (Right)

…. at both the economic and earnings levels

% YoY % YoY

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Asian Economic De-Coupling from OECD:Korean exports example

Source: Morgan Stanley (12/2007)

Less to the US, more to the region and other EM/European nations

Contribution to Korea’s Export Growth, %(%)

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35C

hin

a

AS

EA

N

Mid

dle

East

Lata

m

Em

erg

ing

Eu

rop

e

EU

US

Jap

an

2002-2006

YTD 2007

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Asian Exports: How important are they, REALLY ?Headline: yes ….. but value-added: not so much !

Source: UBS (12/2007)

Asian export sector’s value added contribution to the region’s GDP appears to be less than 5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Hon

g K

on

g

Mala

ysi

a

Vie

tnam

Sin

gap

ore

Taiw

an

Th

aila

nd

Ch

ina

Ph

ilip

pin

es

Kore

a

Paki

stan

Ind

ia

Estimated value-added share Headline Exports

Export share of GDP (%)

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So, can Asia withstand a G3 recession?Theoretically yes, but practically …… ?

Source: BNP Paribas (12/2007)

If Asian’s current strong domestic demand continues, its correlation with the US economy

should diminish over time

0

8

(16)

(8)

0

8

16

24

32

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

16

24

32

Real total domestic demand Real exports US real imports(y-y %)

weaker correlation as

Asian domestic demand

(+8.3% y-y) is stronger

stronger correlation

as Asian domestic

demand (+4.1% y-y)

is weaker

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Food: Important for Asia’s headline CPI

Source: BNP Paribas (12/2007)

A key risk factor to watch

Food as a % of CPI

0

10

20

30

40

50

60C

hina

Hon

g K

ong

Tai

wan

Kor

ea

Sin

gapo

re

Mal

aysi

a

Tha

iland

Indo

nesi

a

Phi

lippi

nes

(% share)

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Asia & China’s Core vs Headline Inflation:Headline: worrying …… Core: tame

Source: Morgan Stanley (12/2007)

Asia ex-Japan

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07

CPI

Core CPI

China

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07

CPI

Non-Food CPI

Will Asian central banks act on headline orcore inflation trends ?

(%)(%)

Asia ex-Japan China

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Property Prices’ Past 10 Year Trend:US peaked, but Asia is still catching up ……

Source: UBS (12/2007)

More upside expected in Asia

(%)

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

US Korea Thailand Taiwan Sing HK

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HK Housing Affordability: Fine

Source: UBS (12/2007)

Plenty of room for the value of an average property to rise

Index

10

30

50

70

90

110Ja

n-9

3

Jan

-94

Jan

-95

Jan

-96

Jan

-97

Jan

-98

Jan

-99

Jan

-00

Jan

-01

Jan

-02

Jan

-03

Jan

-04

Jan

-05

Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Affordability Ratio

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HK Housing Sector: Strong demand, limited supply

Source: UBS (12/2007)

Unlike the US, more favourable supply/demand characteristics

Units

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,0001

97

2

19

77

19

82

19

87

19

92

19

97

20

02

20

07

E

Total Private Residential Completion (unit)

Forecast adjusted down in Nov 07

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HK Banking system: Borrow, please !

Source: UBS (12/2007)

Banks are seriously cashed-up !

(%) $HK bn

Net deposit (RHS)

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%1

98

9

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

-2,800

-1,400

-

1,400

2,800

Total LDR (LHS)

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Asian Equities vs. Asian Bonds: Equities still cheaper

Source: Morgan Stanley (12/2007)

Rising investor’s confidence neededto close the gap

(%) APXJ

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0A

pr-

95

Oct

-96

Apr-

98

Oct

-99

Apr-

01

Oct

-02

Apr-

04

Oct

-05

Apr-

07

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

10Y Bond Yield - Fwd Earnings Yield (%) (LHS)Avg. -1 Std dev (LHS)

Avg. +1 Std dev (LHS)MSCI_ Price_USD AP ex JP (RHS)

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Asia Interest Rates: Still low

Source: Morgan Stanley (12/2007)

Low nominal and real Asian interest rates are expected to remain supportive for equity markets

(%)

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06

LIBOR 3M

Asia Interbk 3M

Core Asia Interbk 3M

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EPS Growth (in % terms)

15x ? ….....… 25x ? ......... or higher ?

2006 2007e 2008f 2009f CAGR 06-09e

Asset 1 +17.8 +27.7 +21.4 +16.3 +20.7%

Asset 2 +30.2 +11.9 +20.6 +27.1 +22.3%

In a world of Downgrades, what are you prepared to pay for this EPS Growth series?

Source: Morgan Stanley (12/2007)

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Asia Trades at a Premium to the US: Deservedly so ?

Source: Morgan Stanley (12/2007)

The re-pricing of Asian vs US assets is likely to continue to favour Asia

(P/E) 12M Fwd PE

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06

Fed Easing Fwd PE- AP ex JP S&P 500

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Profit Outlook:US vs Asia

US: down revisions

Asia Pacific Ex-Japan: up revisions

Source : JP Morgan (12/2007)

Asia uptrend pausing, US downtrend worsening

EPS index(2007: starting at 100 on base date of February ‘06)

95

98

101

104

107

110

113

116

Feb 06 Sep 06 Apr 07 Nov 07

2007

2008

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

Feb 06 Sep 06 Apr 07 Nov 07

2007

2008

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Profit Outlook: Asia’s out-performers

China Singapore

Source : JP Morgan (12/2007)

A pause in the upward earnings surprise trend ?

EPS index(2007: starting at 100 on base date February ‘06)

95

105

115

125

135

145

155

Feb 06 Sep 06 Apr 07 Nov 07

2007

2008

96

104

112

120

128

136

Feb 06 Sep 06 Apr 07 Nov 07

2007

2008

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Profit Outlook:Selective in ASEAN

Indonesia Thailand

Source : JP Morgan (12/2007)

Mixed trends in ASEAN

EPS index(2007: starting at 100 on base date February ‘06)

95

105

115

125

135

Feb 06 Sep 06 Apr 07 Nov 07

2007

2008

82

86

90

94

98

102

106

110

Feb 06 Sep 06 Apr 07 Nov 07

2007

2008

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Profit Outlook :Asia’s recovery plays

Source : JP Morgan (12/2007)

Selective growth opportunities in Korea and Taiwan

Taiwan Korea

EPS index(2007: starting at 100 on base date February ‘06)

90

93

96

99

102

105

108

111

114

Feb 06 Sep 06 Apr 07 Nov 07

2007

2008

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Feb 06 Sep 06 Apr 07 Nov 07

2007

2008

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Earnings Growth vs Valuations:What the consensus expects in Asia and the World

More sustainable and consistent earnings growth expected in Asia/EM,

yet valuations of latter still not expensive

Source: Goldman Sachs, IBES (12/2007)

World

P/E (E) EPS Growth (%) Div. Yield ROE (%)

2007 E 2008 E 2007 E 2008 E 2009 E 2007 E 2007 E

15.9 13.9 9.9 14.6 11.0 2.4 16.2

US 17.4 15.0 1.7 16.1 12.4 1.9 16.9

Emerging Markets

16.4 14.0 23.6 17.1 11.7 2.3 18.0

ASIA 18.1 15.4 21.0 17.2 15.9 2.3 16.2

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Key Investment Themes for Asia in 2008

Assuming no US recession and no inflation blow-out in the region, Asian markets are expected to achieve a sixth year of positive return in 2008

The more sustainable the high earnings growth trend, the more expensive the market is likely to become (i.e., India, China)

Favourable electoral outcomes in Korea, Taiwan and Thailand can turn these under-performing markets around dramatically

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The Fund’s Key Sectoral Investment themes

Consumption, infrastructure and financials themes

Other regional asset reflation plays

Re-construction of Asia – engineering, construction, building materials, capital goods

Improved supply side discipline of “cyclical” sectors – energy, materials (and technology ?)

Consumption, Asset Reflationand Infrastructure/Construction

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Important Information

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